Added SNAP short on morning spike. Started ENOB short. Sold XOM 100 calls. I'm ready to take that XOM profit if it happens
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Added SNAP short on morning spike. Started ENOB short. Sold XOM 100 calls. I'm ready to take that XOM profit if it happens
So much for the bond rally into new month. 10y above 3% will be big trouble
Why trouble above 3?
Psychological pivot. Chart resistance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
If you are relying on traditional media channels here in this market prepare to be band sawed in half.
I suggest some light hearted reading.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/#sthash.WxhVDEGi.dpbs
/\zerohedge clone
TheFly is much different then the Hedge.
If realizing that BAD shit happens everyday and may hurt your feelings then you could also follow John
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/category/comment/
He runs a clean and tidy shop.
Hussman legit
I sold a $97 XOM June 10 call for $106 on 5/23, been up and down on it. Hoping to be assigned, I still have another 100 shares long that if it hits $99 or so again I’m going to sell a $100 call for as much as I can get within 29 days. Like you, I want the profit. I may let the market decide whether I get a drift boat, assigned=buy one, keep premium=keep money in.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
I’m up $387 on the year selling and buying calls and puts. Still have an ET put out there as well as the XOM call. ET is an 11.50 June 10, sold it for $51.34 (after fees). I’ve been up on that the whole time and it looks like I’ll keep the premium, though I’d rather have the shares at $10.98.
I’m up a good chunk since May 11, back up to either well and septic or sweet ass driftboat.
I’m leaning towards drift boat, thinking of this…
https://stealthcraftboats.com/stealthcraft/aftermath/
With the artwork of my uncle on it…
https://stealthcraftboats.com/stealt...artist-series/
I like delving in the stocks to build a retirement, but I also like to have some fun now and then…
So if the SEC is really eliminating PFOF, Robinhood is a zero right?
Didn't most Robinhood users bail on the platform after they restricted the buy button during the GME runup last year?
They shot themselves in the foot by shooting their target market in the back. I think there is a good chance it goes to zero anyway.
robinhood, coinbase, draftkings, same businessQuote:
Originally Posted by JimmyCarter
10y Italy bond up 300bps yoy. I’m old enough to remember the last Italian bond crisis (2018). Does ECB hang Draghi out to dry?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01ITM156N
I read that because HOOD client balances are so small it doesn’t make sense for acquisition by larger BD because of costs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I put my order and 50% deposit down on the drift boat, should see it by the first of next year. Business has been well with my shop lately so we paid cash for the deposit.
So, that meant I could use the cash I’d been holding in my TD account. Put in an order for 8 shares of AMZN, cheap enough for me to buy after the split. It’ll be a long term hold, I order a lot of shit from them as I think a lot of others do as well. Fuel costs will probably cut into margins in the short term but I think they’ll figure a way out of that.
Ordered up 20 shares of HUN, chemicals are another thing that people are going to need regardless of inflation. It yields at 2.3% so that is a draw, and it feels pretty safe.
Set a $6 July 1, put order on SOFI, hoping to get $51. I ended up buying back the ET put I sold for $51 at $4, looking like I could’ve had the $4 as well but anytime I can buy them back under $5 and no fees I do it.
Looks like I’ll be assigned on my XOM call and will have missed out on gains, but I’m still 100%+ ahead. It’s going to be hard for me not to put it into EPD, but I may look around at some other dividend/distribution stuff.
Bought more AMZN as well today. Definitely a long term investment.
Congrats on the boat.
I was thinking about Amazon the other day and wondering what the future holds. Almost all companies have their own website selling platform dialed these days so I buy more direct from the source and less from AMZN, except for specialty stuff that is really hard to find. Their shipping sucks, although that problem is not unique to them, but the cost of Prime keeps going up and there is a limit to what people will pay for unreliable delivery. Small online retailers have a lot of options and no longer need to operate on Amazon. I guess their web services are doing well though? I dunno it just seems like maybe Amazon has kind of jumped the shark or is starting to. Anyway this article about stock splits of tech giants making them possibly less attractive is interesting. I wonder if Alphabet will back off their planned 20-1 split this summer.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...for-tech-watch
8.6% CPI
Real interest rate is -7.85%.
Better consider a rate hike to 1.25% and see what happens.
Well lots of things on sale...
advertising- lots of small businesses advertising using Amazon to acquire customersQuote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
the doomer shit is amazing, consumer sentiment is now worse than it was at the worst of the GFC. Just amazing seeing people with 10x the assets and income they did then dooming
AWS still reigns Supreme too. Amzn also has big first mover advantage.Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
Starting to dip into SHOP
Covering SNAP probably as I sold 14 puts
Starting RDBX short
A star burns brightest before it explodes. The areas Fed can affect with rates are going down in flames. Wages, employment, retail sales, Inflation minus food and energy. Tech layoffs are coming. A lot of them.
True, but even online advertising has changed quite a bit with social media influencers siphoning off some of those dollars that used to go to Amazon and Google, and that could continue to play an increasingly big roll in how companies spend ad dollars. Could have an effect on Alphabet too in the long run. But yeah I know these companies have their fingers in a lot of pies and are such behemoths it's hard to imagine anything displacing them any time soon. But... shit's always changing and it happens fast. I think for Google AI is perhaps the real future.Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
Amazon makes $31 billion per year from advertising. Probably 40% of every product page and search results page on their website is a paid ad spot.
All of the "related products" diagrams that show you how the widget you are looking at stacks up to the competition are paid ad spots. Many of the search results are sponsored. It's wild.
MSFT will no longer enforce most non-competes and will list salary ranges in ads.
https://www.businessinsider.com/micr...culture-2022-6 (sorry for the BI)
INTC issues some hiring freezes - a dividend paying tech industrial with a PE<7... I keep buying them...
https://fortune.com/2022/06/09/chip-...-dave-zinsner/
TSLA/RIVN Biden is going to require a charger every 50 miles on the interstate, wants 500K chargers built. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...rging-network/
hiring is still strongQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
the fed put a lot of money out there over the past ten years
with the increase in interest and getting paper off the fed balance sheet is eventually going to reduce the money supply by ten percent or more
any ideas for where to go to invest?
low grade paper issued by companies that have a positive outlook?
right now I am in qqq and the sqqq and my work retirement fund
There's plenty of room for tech wages to move and people to move to different spots. It's hard to underscore how underweight most companies are on software engineers, especially good ones.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Hell, go search any large company in their technology section.
Just JPMC has 8k openings - https://jpmc.fa.oraclecloud.com/hcmU...nLevel=country
Walmart has 1400+ - https://careers.walmart.com/results?...e-bd7da8ca0000
Right now, the tech employment news is mixed. The rescinded offers and hiring freezes of some big names are well known. The FT has a good article on this issue and basically says there's a divide right now.
"But with almost 17,000 workers laid off in May, according to its tally based on media reports and worker submissions, some company leaders appeared to share the “super bad feeling” about the economy expressed by Tesla chief executive Elon Musk this month."
And,
"Job postings for software developers in the US are up 120 per cent above an early 2020 pre-coronavirus pandemic baseline, according to data from recruitment site Indeed.com. ZipRecruiter, another job listings site, said the number of openings in the tech sector was strong, with about 1.6 jobs for every unemployed person in the industry."
Yeah, all those sponsored search results are one reason I stay away from Amazon if at all possible these days. It's no longer really a place to go for authentic product reviews either. Sure you can sift through all the BS but it's annoying.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Hey I owned two shares of AMZN and now I own 40 since the split, so I hope they continue to do well. I just feel like the site has changed a lot, and not for the better IMO.
I now own 1 share of AMZN and 2 shares of RIVN :fmicon: (and no TSLA). I bought a bunch of SPY, some TQQQ, INTL, and a little MSFT
definitely a worse consumer experience, but that’s also the state of retail - they all sell ads and shelf space at a certain size. Amazon is up to ~40% of US package delivered per some estimates, that’s a large logistics moat. Definitely a bunch of stuff that feels Day 2 about the company now, but where is the consumer go for new product discovery of tedious shit like cords, cables, peppercorns? The wilds of google searchs twenty ads?Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
I still like Bonds for the risk/reward. No way economy handles higher rates. Look at 2018 when 10y hit 3.20. Backlash will be worse now and already is. Mortgage rates will have a 6 handle next week.Quote:
Originally Posted by DBdude
Just because there are job postings in tech doesn’t mean they are going to hire or even interview. I’ve seen this several times. Companies not hiring is a bad look for Wall Street so they will always post openings even as they layoff.
It has to come. The decline in equity values, especially if it continues, forces companies to cut costs.
DXY up 1% today. MSFT already warned about fx hit and that is also getting worse.
Lol
Jeremy Grantham is looking sageQuote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
What percent of people have 10x?Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
10y rate is still ticking higher late today
Grantham has been making the same call every year for the past two decades though.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
And passed up a ton of money doing so in the processQuote:
Originally Posted by JimmyCarter
what I wasn't clear about for everyone is that all the money the fed put out there over the last ten years and the stimulus and covid that a lot of it went into equities and some analysts think the markets in general are over priced by twenty percent.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
another way of looking at it was there was so much money sloshing around that it drove the price of equities up and with the cash supply coming down and the problems with the supply chain and random shocks (the war in Ukraine) that the market is going to come down
I have never been much of a bear and haven't invested a lot but I do follow it
I need to make up for basically missing this bull market because I didn't put much away each paycheck because of my divorce
it was stupid
i need tp make up for lost time
momentum investing is not really my thing
Looks to be back on. The question is do we see lower lows?
I don’t see any evidence of capitulation. We’re along way from oversold anywhere. How much risk and leverage is in this mkt is anyones guess but that will determine the level of damage/opportunity to come.
Not an economist, but If it comes, I don’t see anything to give us a quick re bound. But I always say that and look what happens.
Still feel like it’s going to be 2-3 yrs before any chance of a new high in anything.
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