Airfare and hotel rates are crazy high these days. It's like bidding out a new kitchen. Contractors throw out a high dollar figure and someone is going to say, "what the heck! do it!"Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
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Airfare and hotel rates are crazy high these days. It's like bidding out a new kitchen. Contractors throw out a high dollar figure and someone is going to say, "what the heck! do it!"Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Today needs a soundtrack.
Yet, still ~10% below the 2019 numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
I typically search Marriott because I have the card. Their prices seem way out of line with the market. I don’t travel that much and I still had 5 free days to use this year. I suspect they might be trying to purge points. I’ve found some decent prices on Priceline for shoulder season hotels at others lately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
capacity is also down from 2019, and business travel is still down from 2019. But Last month UAL said avg fare was up 23% from 2019, and they’ve got 25% more capacity to Europe this summer vs 2019Quote:
Originally Posted by dschane
SMF (sac)to PDX rt $500 four weeks out wtf? Who does that?
I just paid $1200 to fly RT IDA to PHL to go my cousin's wedding. Wasn't any better going out of SLC for the dates I needed. It cost me less to fly JAC to LHR last summer.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I normally would have held off for such a stupid price, but it's the first chance to get that part of my family together since my grandma died from Covid 18 months ago and I doubt the remaining aunts/uncles on that side will ever be in the same place together again.
Pilot shortage is hurting the airlines and smaller airports. The military isn't turning out pilots at nearly the rate they used to, and many commercial pilots retired when the pandemic hit. Our local airport (Helena) used to have pretty good prices, now it's insane. I had to book all our summer travels to visit family out of Bozeman. It was 1/3 to 1/2 the price. I actually wrote to the director of our airport to complain and he said it was the pilot shortage causing the airlines to drop flights to smaller regional airports. They need to incentivize those retired pilots to come back into service for a few years.
But other than those family visits, we're not traveling anywhere or spending any money on anything for the foreseeable future. Time to hunker in and get ready to weather the storm.
Stock market tanked today. I'm sick of all these dramatic up and downs. When will it end??
Anyone else fearful that the whole thing is going to just implode? I feel like we're one more major event away from a near complete sell-off to zero. Then, of course, after the sell-off, the hedge funds will buy back everything they have sold the last 4 weeks.
Zero would be an attractive price to buy... Benny could probably make his billionaire dreams come true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud
I mean Draft Kings is almost down to zero. I think Benny should go all in on it.
I like the ups and downs, I’ve been selling a call on XOM most mornings lately. It moves around enough that I’ve been able to buy it back within hours for at least $10 profit after fees. I call it my free lunch program.
I know I’ll have to pay some minimal taxes on the proceeds, is there some other drawback I’m not seeing? I’m up 111% on my 222 shares so being assigned on a run up wouldn’t bother me. I’ve been wanting to move more funds into EPD anyways, XOM is yielding under 4% whereas EPD is just under 7%.
The only stocks that haven’t been hit are the energy stocks…and maybe telecom.
Citi guy calling broad commodity pullback.
https://cnb.cx/3yH4LGN
Glad I went with my gut the last year and a half. Hoping my buys of this year pay off next year…Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Attachment 416804
If oil energy supply were as under supplied as many think opec will eventually increase production. They can’t afford permanent demand destruction too early.
XOM and MRO are much better equipped to print money at lower p/bbl profits than pre-pandemic. XOM claims to be able to turn a profit at $35/bbl prices from Guyana.
It’s not that bad, yet. All we’ve done is remove the Covid bubble. We gave away trillions, people bought cars and houses. It was a joke. I blame them all, they all contributed to it in a bid to keep power or remove it. Anyway, not the place to say that, pummel me in Poly ass.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud
I say another 20%, just keep buying, but you better have 10 yrs to hold.
My ex has a HUGE book of clients. She rode it up the last 10 yrs, basically had it handed to her. Like 500mm plus, min. Anyway, she’s got so many HNW clients that are going to give her an ulcer before this is over. She better not ask me for more!
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would you prefer the places that didn’t give away money, did stricter lockdowns, and are seeing worse inflation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
The Dow Industrial Average is down 7% yoy. S&P down 5% yoy. No big deal..
The R2k is still 3% off the 52 wk low.
The question we will need to ask is "Will the market make it's actual low sooner or later?"
It may take a bit for this to end but do we get a spike low and some time to enjoy some recovery or do we just get shaken and stirred with the low coming at the end of all of this.
Cono's 25 -26 k is the next stop on the track to pain town for the DOW.
Welcome to the world of Inflation in the stuff we do/use and Deflation in the stuff we own. $ is a bit confused.
Here is the list (not extensive & subject to change)
EMs borrowed in USD thinking it would go to $0 and be very cheap and easy to pay back. Now globalization is dead and the Dollar is KING and those loans are getting more expensiver.
War #3 is happening. Some just have not warmed up to the idea.
FED just blew out the Goveys Budget...if that ever mattered..
But they will also make it harder for those on the margins...So we will have less...a d it will cost more.
Since we have no replacement for fossil fuels and the fools believe otherwise we can look forward to $5 tomato's (each).
Since we now have shortages developing in FOOD things will get worse before they get better.
Since the WAR will involve China... We are FUCKededed.
Travel Bug is a symptom of the past and not a forward looking statement. Those fools will regret the spend, unless they are Dentists, they always holiday in the Summer when the kiddos are off. Not to mention you regal Retired Baby Boomers.
Since the Government is the one on life support (around the world) we can look forward to them stearing us off the cliff with them.
So after we make a nice low now or in 2023 we can look forward to watching from afar as we will get our turn, but probably we will be last and good Assets will eventually pay off nicely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
Pretty sure this thread is rife with folks pulling their money out of the market. Pretty sure I just read a block text of bullshit. A year from now I’m going to regret not putting more funds into certain aspects of the market.
Keep putting money into the market and you will thank yourself later on.
Parts of what you say are correct and spot on to why we may just need a hard long low. Continue to invest ALWAYS it's all you got.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
Beware of Ms though, this next one will feel brutal. Multi-year low right on the Retirement of many Overoptimistic Boomers.
At least this isn't in the 20% interest stable coin sub.
Taking back a years worth of gains means no new corvette this year for the selfish boomers but not much else. Even if they sell now they are multiples ahead with gains.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
I’m mostly referring to PPP, how it was administered and that it was almost entirely forgiven. A lot of people whose incomes were unchanged received free cash. Me included.Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
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Alot of boomers stayed overly invested in equities. 20 yrs of low interest rates forced them to, but it still worked out.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
There is a lot of cash on the sidelines but this time around, with higher rates, it’s not all going into equities.
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They will bleed hard if we don’t see new highs like we did in the 2000’s. Especially those who’ve only just retired. They will be back to work or broke if this one is long lasting.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
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An argument that the market has found a level near fair valuation:
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...t-turns-corner
To buy back in now or not...Quote:
After falling nearly 20% on an intraday basis, stocks are now fairly valued, in my opinion.
At the same time, anticipated inflation rates have declined in recent weeks, which should help reduce the uncertainty that has been roiling markets.
By several measures, stocks are also beginning to look notably oversold.
Taken together, these developments could help stocks finally begin to find their footing.
^^^ All the experts are wrong.
Not really, but to try a predict what will happen over the next 6 month to 2 years is damn near impossible except using broad generalizations. FWIW I think Timmer sums things up well.
And to have experts (CE & NS) on a ski forum call a bottom or predict the next recession is laughable.:smile:
We were long overdue a correction. See where it goes from here.
Grantham was on CNBC calling for basically a doubling of the decline from where we are now. He correctly called the market downturns in 2008 and 2000 (and incorrectly called the downturns in every other year)Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
doubtful just invested $1,000 in gear this morning my dividen check was a tad light this year but you knowQuote:
Originally Posted by oldnew_guy
we will be back at all time highs on the stock market by late tuesday afternoon
the future looks very bright as long as your in the top 20% of earners in the america today and live in a prosperous location in this country
the other 80% don't seem to have that cash flow to piss away on cheap throw away plastic crap that litters the side of roads so yeah wall mart and target is down it won't last long because we have this desperate need to buy junk to make ourselves feel good
2nd quarter gdp will be - .06% then they will start freely using the word recession (all these smart economists don't know shit they talk out of their asshole and use all kinds of facts figures and past history to try to be the one to predict what will happen tomorrow) as if they know what its like to be an average working class never going to get ahead blame immigrants for everything fat and lazy poor schlub in american today
most of my customers would be happy with shorter lead times on materials and lower costs on lumber
My bet is the market goes up and down some.
It's all fugazi!Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAQA_29Htts
TRUTH! Also, my boat dealer had his first cancelation due to the stock market. He figures the boat will sell in a week or two.Quote:
Originally Posted by ötzi
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Burn baby burn. S&P in the mid 2000 range, maybe it could tempt me. Maybe.
.DXY close to a one month low. Down close to 2% from its recent high along with rates.
The port blockade in Ukraine preventing food exports could become a UN humanitarian issue. If that happens and western militaries enforce export freedom wheat prices, and most soft commodity prices will fall.
G7 is meeting this week.
SPY is only down 2.1% on the week. Could easily close flat.
The R2K is only down .5% on the week. Edit: unch on the week now.
Hope is a drug and very powerful one, Hopium can blind you from the truth if you have to much in you.
India - Banning wheat exports. (Paywalled)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-b...of2&yptr=yahoo
Recession / Stagflation / Economy Not Working As Planned - Whatever you want to call it is a certainty and very easily forecasted.
Come back to this post circa May 2023 where I say the "market bottoms in the first Quarter 2023 (April)." Do not expect them to bottom the same day but within days or a few weeks.
Dow 29600 and then 25,000 - 26,000
NASDAQ 10800 then 7800 then 7200
S&P 500 3200 then 2800 then 2500
Sh*tCoin 28600 then 17600 then 10400 then 9800 (3rd Quarter Low this Year)
Oil $250+/ barrel by end of 2023
Trade Accordingly. If we loose one level we get support at the next. It is helpful to know where those painful stops actually are though. Markets never move in straight lines.
And yields will need to be higher than inflation before Bonds will work as hoped for any substantial holding period. If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.
Rising interest rates help unload ships faster? Do farmers grow more wheat with higher rates? Oil companies find more oil with higher rates? The FED does not have the tool kit to fight these problems and Government Polytricksters are not helping because they are dumb.
We have systematic shortages developing in FOOD. That leads to Civil Unrest 100% of the time. Sri Lanka?
Buy some non perishable food you will thank me later.
“Don’t you know there are people starving in Africa”
America has 10 trillion in calorie reserves they can burn off.