Agree. Bear markets can have massive rallies. Before bottoming out in 2000 the NASDAQ rallied 30%+ multiple times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
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Agree. Bear markets can have massive rallies. Before bottoming out in 2000 the NASDAQ rallied 30%+ multiple times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
Can't answer that, but about 6 months ago I moved most of my savings to a Lending Club high yield savings account. O.70% and member FDIC. Been happy so far, easy to get somebody on the phone etc. I can't see any risk with Lending Club's bank arm but if anybody knows something I don't I'd like to hear it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
Monday’s are tricky because the mutual fund orders from Friday get executed.
my method was to sell the house at the peak & party like a rock star, forget/ leave the RE proceeds in cash & miss the stock market down turn, its that hit n miss IMEQuote:
Originally Posted by Summit
With oil/midstreams also down, my brokerage account is getting hammered. Only thing I own that is green for the day is GILD.
Based on my googling, in the late 70's to stop this level of inflation was a recession, so likely could have ~10% more drop?
Sure. Maybe 20%. Maybe more.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
The real question is how long does it stay down? It will find a bottom, there will be an over sold situation and it will rally, but how long for new highs?
Like I said a few pages back, if you are nearing retirement, or are not in it for 5-10 yrs, you will wish you had sold in that last rally.
4matic got it right for his age, now he waits for higher yields like retirees wished for when they were sold shitty stocks by no nothing advisors the last 5 yrs.
Going to be a lot whiners the next few yrs.
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I have a few savings accounts that I don't pay too much attention to, but looking now, it's .85, .60, and local bank .02. Tracking up slowly.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
Thanks Cono. I know quite a few people that mistake return for yield. Treasury yields still look higher but I feel like the dollar and commodities are about done.
Quoted for posterityQuote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
I am officially out of dry powder on the crypto exchange. Would like to sell some equities like ARKK, should I wait until tomorrow - looks like there could be a rebound?
I wouldn't trust Crazy Cathy with a dime of my $. YMMV though.
Maybe. Or it'll keep dropping as people start to panic.Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
If we knew, we'd all be millionaires by now.
:D
Problem for ARKK now is TSLA. It can still really get hit.
Sell when you can, not when you have to.Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
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Elon should have waited to buy Twitter.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I think it could be the end of him.
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Dude could take a 99% cut in his net worth and still have enough for 1000 lifetimes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
he needed the narrative control and pivot to pizzagaters now (and it was never a smart move)Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
I read (a) that there is usually a lag between Fed. interest rate hikes and payable interest on savings accounts and (b) in addition to that lag, banks have so much cash that they have no need for our cash and therefore are unlikely to offer higher rates to attract consumer deposits for some time to come.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
ARKK would have been holding up better with more TSLA, seems they have a 10% limit. But you think TSLA has room to fall, how the mighty will fall...
Now you tell me! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Checking and savings accounts are a service. At my Credit Union I can get a much higher rate but I’m required to use their payment service with some other incentives. Just have a money market account you can transfer from.
I do for a lot of reasons. Primarily now is that large investors aren’t going to risk having leadership in the middle of political and social opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
is it time to buy buy buy Palantir yet?
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Jesus, what went wrong there?Quote:
Originally Posted by east or bust
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And with 1% of his previous net worth he would no longer be anyones hero.Quote:
Originally Posted by RoooR
Guy leverage a lot of Tesla to buy Twitter and he could be called in on it before the deal is even done.
Tesla is could easily see under $500, where I read he’s fucked.
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Well I hope he doesn't have to shut down Starlink. That product has literally been life changing for me.
Peter Thiel? He’s a lot like Musk. I doubt current admin cares to do business with him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
“The company, known for its work with the U.S. Army and the Central Intelligence Agency, said it still sees a "wide range" of potential upside to its forecast from "developing geopolitical events".
Isn't that SpaceX, not tesla?Quote:
Originally Posted by RoooR
A close below 2.90% on the 5y this week will be a reversal on the weekly chart. Almost a 20bps range today.
He can still back out, no? Besides maybe the Russians will get him and he will be found dead of an apparent suicide.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Yes. TSLA would rally. TWTR $7 below the buyout price nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/d...132324591.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Quote:
It seems the Russian government isn’t too happy with Elon Musk.
“If I die under mysterious circumstances, it’s been nice knowin ya,” the billionaire Tesla cofounder told his 91.6 million Twitter followers on Sunday night, after claiming he’d been threatened by a top Russian official over SpaceX’s use of its Starlink satellites to provide internet in Ukraine.
Stocks down
Energy down
Commodities down
Gold down
Crypto down
Bonds down
Dollar up
What does that spell?
Money market rates seem the same if not lower than what I'm getting now in my high yield savings account.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Been saying the Bond Market is broken. Not acting right. I’m not alone. Sorry can’t legally cut and paste. Just search Fed liquidity
Fed sites liquidity risks:
https://www.ft.com/content/0dafe9f5-...c-190ee2a54781
FWIW, historically this is how bond markets behave when the Fed waits too long to start raising rates after the economy goes from rising inflation, rising growth to falling growth, rising inflation. The Fed reacted too late in adjusting rates and as a result there's an enormous 6% gap between what the Taylor Rule says interest rates should be and the actual Fed funds target rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Contrary to expectations of Treasurys rallying when yield spreads are rising, in the past when the Taylor gap was as large as it is today Treasury returns still ended negative and performed about the same as the S&P 500 over the same period. Although 5YR treasury returns tend to slightly outperform the S&P 500 and 10YR returns. In the past when the divergence was this large it took on average just over 30 months or ~2.5 yrs for bond markets to normalize.
"Should the Federal Reserve cease in their efforts to calm inflation before it has been fully restrained, bond investors should be wary."
That’s all true but it’s the notchy fast moves in yield lately. Perhaps because yields ave exceeded the expectation of hedges.
Currently sitting on a bunch of cash. No idea what to do with it. Money is earmarked to one day be spent on a down payment for a mountain house. Do I just leave it sit or invest it somewhere? I really don’t want to lose liquidity to either pivot to equities or real estate though. Currently collecting a whopping .25%.
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Wait till the market drops a lot more. It's still expensive
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