thats all fed policy and Brandon’s fault, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
Printable View
thats all fed policy and Brandon’s fault, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
Oof.
A few stocks now versus their 52-week high:
• $AAPL: -8%
• $AMZN: -29%
• $TSLA: -29.8%
• $NVDA: -44%
• $PLTR: -63%
• $ARKK: -63.6%
• $LCID: -67.7%
• $CRSP: -69.6%
• $NFLX: -71.8%
• $ZM: -75%
• $BYND: -76%
• $ROKU: 79%
• $TDOC: -81%
• $RIVN: -87.9%
• $HOOD: -90%
This Brandon?Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status...624403457?s=20
BTC versus its ATH: -42.81%, though not as bad as Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR): -61%
Wrong thread, JONG.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
That is what I am saying when I say the Fed doesn’t have the right toolkit for this one.Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
I'm just here to help cunt up the thread some more
slow roll to a minor recession more of a blip not a crash the poor will take it in the ass some more but the wealthy will keep on being wealthy
any economist or politician that acts like they know what they are talking about doesn't know what they are talking about I know more than they do we live in a society where internet popluarity rules and polticians don't want to look like they made a mistake so the economy will do what it does cause they are all too freaked out to make a move
fuck poor people seriously I said it
I have been around imigrants since I was a kid and people are fucking lazy they want everything handed to them with no strings attached and they want everything to come to them nice and easy every imigrant I talk to is amazed at all the opportunity that exists in this country and the amount of equality that does exists here lazy shit bags need to go spend a year or two in some third world country to see how good they have it here
the stock market should not be used as an inidicator to how good the country is doing, it's bullshit and we need to get away from that
if there is a major crash maybe this time (we just tossed money to sharks in 2008) we need to create huge changes
regulate the insuance banking and investment companies (before they were all seperated now they can all be one and gamble with your insurance premiums)
start breaking up all the monopolies too big to fail conglomerates it's time
scrap the current health care system fuck those people the care providers that hide behind religous institutions and the scum of the earth insurance companies
the current run up on prices is complete bullshit
corporations are raping us and blaming high wages supply chain issues and what not
they are doing it because competition is dead and price fixing is in I deal with building materials every day a sheet of 1/2 osb was running $15.00 plus/minus three years ago it's now just under $50.00 a sheet, loggers aren't charging higher prices, their income is fixed by what the two major players will pay (sierra pacific and lousiana pacific) they raise the price as high as the market will bear and suddenly massive profits the sheet might cost $1- $3 dollars more to produce and distribute today as apposed to three years ago
fuck all this
meanwhile I'm shopping for $300.00 sunglasses
^^^He doesn't quite get it.
It is not about spending $300 on Sunglasses. It is about picking the Red ones.
Hey didn't lumber futures take a big dive? Won't lumber normalize at some point? Maybe late in the summer?
Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
trust fund Fred takes the mask off
consumer lumber prices dropped in sept/oct (I use 1/2 osb because it's a garbage shit product and easy to track the price on) it was running $25.00 sheetQuote:
Originally Posted by shera
lumber usually drops dec-march this year it spiked complete opposite
"aye bitch, pass me my ripple"Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
I don't do red glasses black brahQuote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
https://www.smithoptics.com/en_US/p/...=matteTortoise
It would be wonderful if lumber went down. Good for housing and construction. I don't have anything to do with those, but I think it would be good for the community and nation.
Gold up! Amazon down.
Hope for the world.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Ok, you are talking about the price at the cash register, which is obv a big lag from futures. Maybe this winter price will drop? I want to build a sunroom, have the windows already, still need to buy the framing lumber.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
I hate to be that guy but wages and oil prices are never going back down. Get used to paying more for EVERYTHING.Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
I’ve heard that too many times before on oil prices. Prices can and will have a huge drop at some point.
Wages will be sticky but employment will not.
It kinda seems like NakedShorts enjoys being 'that guy.' If not he's really leaning into it for some reason even though nearly everyone seems to recognize prices are rising way too fast. In any event it's not so much about prices receding, although some will, as it is about the rate of change slowing.
CME lumber futures are 2*4 random length 8’-20’, in a big lot (110k bd ft 5-7 houses worth). I don’t think there’s widely covered sheet goods futuresQuote:
Originally Posted by shera
It is the lack of new money investing in the oil space and companies feeling the heat to divest from it. Throw in War, Sanctions, and Global Trade issues and we have a recipe for much higher oil prices.
Welcome to the new normal!
Also, batteries will suffer a similar fate of not having enough of the inputs and demand increasing. Prices for those will be much higher too.
Market beatdown
Defenz stonks on sale!
"The S&P 500 has fallen almost 13% so far this year and is on track for its worst January to April performance since World War II." -Barron's
Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
Attachment 414791 5 year chartQuote:
Originally Posted by stalefish3169
Attachment 414792
Not to disparage Barrons but the S&P hasn't been around since WWII.Quote:
The S&P index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10.5% since its 1957 inception through 2021.
Well... it wasn't originally the S&P 500, but it has been around since the 20's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
An index with fewer names has been around longerQuote:
Originally Posted by skaredshtles
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
I'm just the messenger. Here's the full article, which BTW, they edited to 1939 instead of WWII. I guess you can write Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com and Jack Denton at jack.denton@dowjones.com if you take issue with the article.Quote:
Originally Posted by skaredshtles
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sto...ay-51651223527
The S&P 500 sank Friday–and the index had its worst four-month start to a year in more than half a century.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively. Both indexes rallied more than 2.5% on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 939 points, or 2.8%, after climbing 614 points on Thursday.
The S&P 500 has fallen 13.3 % so far this year, for its worst January to April performance since 1939, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq is now trading in a bear market, down more than 20% from the all-time high of 16,057, hit on Nov. 19. The tech-heavy index had its worst first four month start to a year on record.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
While the Nasdaq got hit the hardest Friday, stocks across the board were way down. That isn’t a surprise. There have been dozens of 2% daily gains in the S&P 500 since 2018, and the next day only saw the index gain just a third of the time, according to Instinet.
The larger concern for stocks: The Federal Reserve is expected to aggressively lift interest rates to stave off high inflation, a move that will likely slow down economic growth, and reduce its bond holdings, which has lowered bond prices and lifted their yields. That makes future profits for companies worth less today, thus weighing on stock valuations.
Inflation—the impetus for all of this—has only worsened with the Russia-Ukraine war. That has prompted Western nations to block off Russian commodities from the global market, putting even more strain on consumers and corporate profit margins. Lockdowns in China are also blocking off global access to supplies coming out of the nation.
Indeed, the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, gained 6.6% year over year in March, according to the Commerce Department on Friday. Investors had been hoping that inflation would have peaked, but that rate is higher than the 6.4% gain in prices seen for February.
“With global markets down double-digits this year, and daily headlines that include worsening China lockdowns, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, a global economic growth slowdown, multi-decade highs in inflation, and the Federal Reserve on the move, it’s little wonder why investors’ mood remains dour,” wrote Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist.
There is good news, though. The core PCE result, which does not account for volatile—and recently soaring—energy and food prices, gained just 5.2% in March. That’s below the previous result of 5.3%. It means prices across the board are rising at a slower pace.
That could conceivably ease the pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates aggressively, which investors would welcome. The Fed will announce its interest-rate decision next week.
The bond markets appeared relatively calm. The 2-year Treasury yield, which reflects market expectations for the benchmark lending rate a couple of years from the present, was down to 2.69% from around 2.7% before the PCE report came.
The mild rise in the yield isn’t much of a surprise. Yields have already reflected the Fed’s intention to lift rates. The 2-year Treasury yield, on pace to close Friday at just under its pandemic-era high, is up several times from a level just over 0.1% in January of 2021. The yield has now seen its largest 15-calendar month gain since the same stretch ended in January 1995, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
As for why the Nasdaq was so much worse off than the other two indexes: a couple giant stocks — Amazon AMZN –14.05% (ticker: AMZN) and Apple AAPL –3.66% (AAPL) — were down a lot after earnings. The two company’s combined market capitalizations as of Thursday’s close was $4.14 trillion, about 20% of the Nasdaq’s aggregate market cap.
Amazon’s profit missed estimates by nearly one dollar a share because of higher labor and shipping costs in the quarter. The company also gave weak sales guidance for the current quarter. The stock dropped 15%.
Apple’s profit and sales of $97.3 billion exceeded estimates, but the company said supply constraints in China resulting from the country’s Covid-related lockdown could reduce second-quarter sales by between $4 billion to $8 billion. The stock dropped 2.4%.
Tesla TSLA –0.77% (TSLA) was up 0.8% after CEO Elon Musk said via Twitter that he had no further plans to sell Tesla stock after Friday. The billionaire executive recently sold some $4 billion worth of the company’s shares, presumably to help fund his takeover of social-media group Twitter (TWTR).
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) stock dropped 4.5% after the company reported a profit of 74 cents a share, in line with estimates, on sales of $4.399 billion, above expectations for $4.398 billion.
Chevron (CVX) stock was down 3.1% after the company reported a profit of $3.36 a share, missing the FactSet consensus estimate of $3.41 a share, on sales of $54.4 billion, below expectations for $47.9 billion.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock was down 2.2% after the company reported a profit of $2.07 a share, missing estimates of $2.23 a share, on sales of $90.5 billion, below expectations for $92.7 billion.
AbbVie (ABBV) stock dropped 8.5% after the company reported a profit of $3.16 a share, beating estimates of $3.14 a share, on sales of $13.5 billion, below expectations for $13.6 billion.
Intel (INTC) stock fell 6.3% after the company reported a profit of 87 cents a share, beating estimates of 81 cents a share, on sales of $18.35 billion, above expectations for $18.31 billion.
Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com and Jack Denton at jack.denton@dowjones.com
wsj article pretty much said that too not interested in drilling right nowQuote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
the tide has turned and wages are only going to go up so the low life quickie mart worker gets the same wages as an IT loser
unions all the way the next five years
Everybody be joining unions these days. When baristas start striking and people can't get their $10 vente quad shot latte with extra foam, 3 shots of unicorn swirl and chocolate drizzle on top, you are going to see some serious social unrest. It will make Jan. 6th Capitol riot look like a sight seeing tour.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
I have felt your future pain. I only wish I had gotten my lumber package at today's prices. I would imagine that with mortgage rates marching toward 6+% this summer that it might cause a bit of a pause in upward price hikes in building materials? All that will probably happen is that building material (lumber producers) will just turn down the production at the mills and prices will stay stable about where they are now.Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
First weekly close above 3% in the 30y in a while
My point is not that Barrons is wrong. My point is that the S&P does and has done very well the past 5-10 & 50 years. Yeah a 13% decline sucks and I would not be a bit surprised to see it reach full correction mode.
History has shown that these things happen and will happen and playing the long game is what makes sense. I am not scheduled to start tapping my retirement for another 2-3 years.
Best thing to do is chill out.
You're not wrong about any of this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
I remember reading about peak oil in 2006 and freaking out. Then shale saved us. For awhile.... Really happy to have had VDE as a core part of my portfolio the last 2 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
Crude Oil as a burnable method of producing energy is going away. Maybe not next year but within 20 years it will make up a fraction of our energy.
LNG won't be that far behind.
Well, I don't want to conflate two threads. But chilling and playing the long-term game is pretty much what I'm doing, Señor Bunion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
The girlfriend has gone from looking at new houses to house remodels with rates up.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
This Shit is over in a way we’ve not seen since I graduated college in the nineties.
Even my 50 yr old ass has not lived through a complete mkt cycle like this in bonds.
But my hunch says ripple effect.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Multiple things can be true. A lot of rich business owners got millions of $. My father in law (who owns a LUMBER yard) got $2M and never shut down. Might that have had some effect on the price of LUMBER?Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Its gonna take a shit load of fossil fuel to build out all that green energy infrastructure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Balanced fund index down about 13% ytd. I guess that’s not too bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Yeah, I’ve been buying bonds and have a bloody stump. It really could just unravel with stocks and bonds both accelerating lower.
I do have a recent 15% of assets in equity that’s really hurt the total downside.
Buying EMB was a big mistake. It’s yielding close to 6% forward but currency and macro risk are taking it down. 10% of assets down 2%.