POG......another new high ..1321...Stoke.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
Push Mr. Market, Push!!!!! you can DOOOOOO it!!!!!!
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POG......another new high ..1321...Stoke.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
Push Mr. Market, Push!!!!! you can DOOOOOO it!!!!!!
Well, I don't suppose you'd count people who just had their money in a savings or money market account as 'traders', but they would have beaten the SPY.Quote:
Originally Posted by grapedrink
The technique these guys use is just using covered calls. (Selling a call on a stock position while buying the same amount of the stock required to 'cover' the call). A covered call has the same sort of payout profile as being short a put on the same instrument (limited gain if stock price goes up or only slightly down, possible loss of the entire nominal value of the stock value minus option premium if the stock price goes to zero).Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
The only difference is that the 'investor' puts up all the money that they could lose by buying the stock position while a put seller may sell his put on margin. Essentially, this technique has the same risk profile as any other sort of strategy that involves 'selling insurance':
Eat like a bird, shit like an elephant...
60 minutes piece http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?...ain;contentAux
I meant to watch this Sunday night. Thanks for posting.Quote:
Originally Posted by grapedrink
Like I said, good luck getting any agreement.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
U.S. plan hits opposition at G20, FX accord remote Crap
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69K0Q720101021
So, are we just fucked at this point? Passing tax cuts which add a $800b to the debt and a continued inability to really deal with the debt.
Are we on a downward spiral or is this going to turn around?
For those of you who think it is going to spiral, what is you plan? Leave the country?
And go where...Ireland? Greece? Italy? Rwanda? Argentina? Everyone cant fit into Australia
Problem was way before the tax cuts- without the cuts theres simply a lot less disposable income to keep the tepid economy afloat. With the cuts we are kicking the can down the road. Again. Both scenarios suck.
I think the main thing isnt the tax revenue base but costs. We spend a ton on a ton of things, and no politician wants to tell his constituents there are going to be cuts, which sucks because thats what is needed. What do we spend on defense- 600Billion annually? We cant get by with 400Billion?
For sure a downward spiral fiscally. Deficits don't matter..Quote:
Originally Posted by char
But. It's good for companies with people having more to spend. The decline in bond prices will also cause re-allocation to equity. The charts of SPX are still very bullish with a tight range right at two year highs (get in or get left behind). 1300 SPX is reasonable on this move up. Typical pattern most years has been a rally into the first quarter and then a significant decline. Very rotational market now with year end rebalancing and such.
I bought bonds yesterday since the ten year got into long term support around 3.5% (blended fund with 5 year duration). I expect a test of 3% yield at some point next year. I'm 60/30/10 stocks bonds cash.
Damn 4matic, that sounds straight out of the mouths of the talking permanent bulls at cnbc. I don't think I could disagree with you more. But that is what keeps things interesting. Good luck on those bond purchases.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Some of my last statement was rhetorical "get in or get left behind" as just one of the driving forces. As you know, I was buying dips and reallocating to equity in the weeks and months after flash crash. I was buying stock at 1010 SPX. With regard to bonds, as the 30 year approaches 5% what conservative investor wouldn't take that guaranteed after the last decade? I was at 15% income just two months ago..Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
I'll be looking at Munis tomorrow with the rest of my taxable cash:
Bill Gross buying munis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...ond-funds.html
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest mutual fund, put $11.4 million of his personal wealth into five closed-end funds that invest in corporate debt after buying shares of five that buy municipal bonds in the past week.
< duh > the countries who are buying Australia's resources? without mining/resources Oz is fucked - they've an overpriced housing market like the rest of the Anglophone world, an increasingly uncompetitive services market and, worse than the US, a big water/development problem coming down the pipe or, er, nothing coming down the pipe. Australia is just a feeder for China, so er, how about China? or Vietnam. Or Thailand. Good food, cute girls, cheap beer. Sounds better than $22.50 CRUS call options :fmicon:Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
<duh> Because I always wanted to work on a rice paddy.
Come on try harder.
:yourock:Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
You've never heard of a membrane bio-reactor have you?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Conway
Quote:
Originally Posted by char
Haven't you been paying attention? Trickle down is the BOMB!!
http://www.ourfuture.org/files/trickledownimg1033.jpg
here's one for benny, 60 minutes piece on state deficits: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/...in;cbsCarousel
Something tells me that Meredith Whitney is having a hard time getting her biz open when all the old boys are being rewarded by the Treasury for past sins. Time will tell how tough she is.
Meredith Witney had one good call. She's been dead wrong for two years since she went on her own. Although, she did have a good trade last summer to underweight and short money center banks.
A break above the double top on the weekly indicates 1300 on the SPX imo. I'll move some money out of equity on trade above 1280.
California has never defaulted on a bond. Cal State bond obligations are a very small percent of revenue. The chance of complete default is zero. I would buy PCK right here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
True, and it would be quite the moment in history if it happened, but you tell me how this will work itself out within the next decade or two. If you think this thing going on over in Europe is bad and just a can getting kicked over and over, wait until our little sovereign debt crisis really starts to unravel. If not the '12 election, then definitely the '14 and '16 campaigns will be dominated by this. And don't be surprised if Christie is front and center.
Like she said- do you want to wait until there is a problem (default) to recognize things are fucked? Cali has been dishing out I.O.U.s to pay its debt...last time i saw those were in Dumb & Dumber so yeah, I think thats indicative of a pretty serious problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Im not sure how long the US government can prop up some of these states- its similar to Germany vs the PIIGS, except the US Govt is printing money anyway for itself. She is right though, state finances across the country are every bit as fucked as the Feds, if not quite a bit more
things worked out fine in dumb and dumber...what's the problem ;)
short term - correction coming, we're up to 2007 overbought ranges again. mid term, still bullish as long as the FED keeps pumping money: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20vs%20SPY.jpg - chart shows stocks have risen since the Fed has been throwing in. i'm not getting out again until they stop.
I don't understand? If I get less in my pay check I don't continue to spend I reduce my spending to a level that I can afford. So if the goberment is bringing in less why not just spend less to make up for it?Quote:
Originally Posted by char
Because Macroeconomics and your personal budget have much different characteristics, forces and outcomes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuckerman
Is it just me, or has CNBC just really gone over the top lately when it comes to their schilling for the industry? I know, I know, they've been awful a lot, Home to Cramer and all that, but over the last few weeks I turn them on the TV or radio and have heard such incredible crap. Yesterday they had a happy smiley real estate snake oil salesman who sounded almost like the old late night infomercials of the early 21st century, and he was called up as an "expert". Today I heard basically lies coming from a few money managers - that wages were up, homes were moving, here's where to put your money. Frontrunning? nah. Who would imagine, especially when it's so out there? I guess this is what happens when nobody goes to jail.
See P.t. Barnum
we need another crash asap. the first "crash" did nothing.
Eh. Just the usual cheerleading before the spring market kicks into gear after the holidays.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Why pick one guest to generalize? They have Roubini, Pento, Schiff, Schilling, Rogers, Prechter and all the other doomers. Of course they have cheerleaders, 90% of all people are long only.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Stick with reading Zerolongs, Zerorights, or whatever the doomer press is you choose to frequent. I like CNBC and Bloomberg.
First, I brought up two cases of BS, not one. I could easily talk about many more, but, I have a life. Shit, Cramer and that Fast Money show could keep me busy 24/7. Second, Bloomberg and CNBC is classic apples and oranges. I listen and watch Bloomberg a lot, and its much less biased politcally and smarter and more honest when it comes to money. Third, you really have to recognize the difference between a media schill like the industry hacks that appear on CNBC and academics like Roubini, who, btw, gets plenty of air time there, but, hes not selling me shit.
That said, the one thing I learned this year is not to fight the Fed. That, and momentum. It certainly isnt about the basics in the economy, which still pretty much suck. I do like that investment writeoff in the new tax bill, though. Im betting that a lot of computers and networks will be upgraded in 11. Im shopping for an ETF in the IT world for that.
Zero Hedge is way over the top for me. I read Naked Capitalism, Big Picture, Calculated Risk, Seeking Alpha, and Simon Johnson. Taibi is always fun.
happy holidays and make money in 11
You can't fight the FED, but I am not taking any chances joining the ponzi based rally we had in 2010. Just waiting to short the shit out of this market, as I know this dog will have his day sooner than later. Zerohedge is a pretty sobering read and I respect Tyler's opinions mucho. That said, I take everything read with a grain of salt and keep my eyes wide open for the coming financial zombie apocalypse:wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
And then on que, this just in:
"Conveniently in CNBC's lowest rated show, during Christmas Eve eve, at a time when perhaps 5 people would be watching in an interview which disclosed that after more than a year of searching, Biderman still has no idea who actually buying. In response to Bartiromo's question if the retail investor, who left after the flash crash (thank you SEC), Biderman responds what every Zero Hedger has known for 33 weeks: "Retail investors are not coming back to the US. Those investors that are investing are buying global equities and are buying commodities. We are seeing lots money going into commodity ETF funds: gold, silver..." and the even more unpleasant summation: "individuals have been selling, companies are net selling, insider selling and new offerings are swamping any buyback and any cash M&A activity since QE 2 was announced. Pension funds and hedge funds don't really have that much cash to invest. So what nobody's asking is what happens when QE 2 stops: if the only buyer is the Fed, and the Fed stops buying, I don't know what is going to happen...When I was on your show a year ago I was saying the same thing: we can't figure out who is doing the buying it has to be the government, and people said I was nuts. Now the government is admitting it is rigging the market." Cue Bartiromo jaw dropping".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aft...ing-all-buying
Happy Holidays guys.
Have you read your own posts? He is selling you plenty of shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Why is it anything Roubini says on CNBC is great but anything that anyone else (anyone remotely bullish) says is ridiculous? The calls he made in the financial crisis and thereafter- of sheer panic- are just as wrong as anyone (else) on CNBC.
Do you actually know anything about the economy of California? Or for that matter the Eurozone?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
California's been a net donor state for over 2 decades now. It was down to 79% in 2003. A number of other states with crisises like New Jersey are also donor states. The American PIIGS are places like Alabama. Feel free to look it up if you care:
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/22685.html
so if the feds stopped taking so much from california residents, the state could raise its low, low tax rates and solve the problem? is that what youre saying?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Conway
Hindenburg Omen on the clock, Bradley Model turn date next week, you may not have to wait too much longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
I'm guessing things will look a whole lot different a month from now.
What's he trying to sell me?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Whens the Social web bubble going to burst? $900 million round for Groupon? Groupon!
SPX 1300 :fmicon:
We "should" accelerate higher here. I'm not betting on that but that's what my charts say. This rally needs to quickly extend another 5-10% to fulfill the breakout.
I still expect a correction to 1200 at some point but that level will rise with time and price.
Sideways action at SPX 1300 and INDU 12000 (which are both natural resistance points) is bullish.
4matic front running the FED. You have a direct line into the Squid or Jamie Dimon"? Just be ready to bail, but in the meantime, pump that market:fmicon:
"When the market seems like it is about to roll over, who you gonna call? Why future Treasury Secretary Jamie Dimon of course... Courtesy of IOIA, we now know whose ETF desk has a sole purpose in life to hit the Chairchopper's Russell 2000 target of 36,000 before June, when it all goes to hell".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpm-save-day
Jamie D. reads my blog here.. :tongue:Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
A Spring, post tax season, sell in May go away, correction is widely anticipated. Will it happen? Probably..
SPX gonna pass gold soon. Maybe tomorrow.
Edit: A little selloff on the MSFT earnings right at the close.