If that were true you should be a very rich man following the predictability. It's all in your mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Futures above 1080 right now. 1100 is easy from here.
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If that were true you should be a very rich man following the predictability. It's all in your mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Futures above 1080 right now. 1100 is easy from here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Roubini is too smart to predict short term stock market valuations. Everybody wants to slot him as the anti Cramer, but he's above that. Cramer, as he has said, is a buffoon.
If I had the balls to trade my gut feelings, I would be richer, as my gut told me the market would close about where it did today, when I thought we were down 300+ points.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
From yesterdays post: "A - Risk markets can stabilize/rally a tad this week, perhaps a little into the week after, but overall there is a decent chance of a VERY SERIOUS risk asset sell-off late May/early June into late June/early Jul....I am talking ANOTHER 10%/10%+ off S&P from here".
So we will see. Either way, I am out for now and will only be doing the occasional SDS trade.
not knocking your trade at all, didn't mean it to come off that way.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Being bearish while the market goes up 4000 points to be proven right when it sinks what- 1000 points- makes you too smart? Cramer, while an entertainer on his show, didnt get rich being a dumbass.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Look at the chart on the right. WTF???? http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/6794/dowjones.png Photo chopped? Still pretty funny.
You haven't actually listened to the man. He's a macroeconomist, an academic, not a market analyst or hired gun, or screaming buffoon on the TV. He hasn't been wrong much at all in those terms for five or six years. He does sell books and operates a pay web site, and probably commands a nice speaking fee, but I'm sure all of that couldn't buy enough toilet paper to fill Lloyd Blankfein's Hampton beach house.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Here's a recent talk. How many times does he mention the stock market?
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/293525-2
Best opening line I have every heard from a person on a finance show. The Scottish hedge-fund dood is my fucking hero. He totally blows out the Columbia professor that is in for extend and pretend and debt slavery.
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I&feature=player_embedded"]YouTube- Newsnight 26th May, Hugh Hendry 'I would recommend you panic'[/nomedia]
That's a great clip. I think the EU zone might just go into a recession (if not already in one) no matter what the gov'ts do there.
And isn't there a clip somewhere of Cramer talking about how the hedge funds would manipulate a stock by floating rumors to the financial media? And how feckles the SEC is?
Up 285. I'll take it.
Deutsche Bank DB up 8.5%
Bought into UCO yesterday morning. Feelin it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Nice to get a good fill like that. What's your timeframe?
Im not sure this is going to be a long term thing, but as long as the economy doesnt throw out some stinkbomb news, it should be ok to ride back up to the $11 range at least.
Oil had settled around what- $80 a month or so ago, and that is somewhere around 13 for UCO. Id probably bail around then and find something else, unless its rolling. But at the slightest sign of weakness Im out. Thats what usually happens with me, especially in something real macro-intensive. Then its a good bet to pick it back up when panic had set in and the price is right again.
I would love to short Eur but that means buying USD - which is even more vomit-inducing.
The flight to safety mentality is something else though. Gold at 1700 per ounce in Greece spot market. TIPS at 105. That usually is at par; never expected a capital gain out of TIP
Awesome - didn't know Jeffrey Sachs was such a pretentious boorQuote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
So I am surfing around reading up on Greece and find this comment.
"Greek politicians weren't alone in promising future benefits to voters. The average burden of debt, plus liability for pension and other social-service promises, averages 434% of GDP across the European Union. France, with its relatively generous social benefits, comes in at 549%. The United Kingdom stands at 442% and Germany at 418%. Spain, which has a bigger current deficit but relatively modest promises to its citizens, shows up in Gokhale's calculations at 244%.
And the United States? By these calculations, the debt-plus-promises burden comes to 890% of GDP. Move over Greece. Who's your daddy"?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...rg.aspx?page=2
Holy fuckin shit:eek:
I dunno about all these futures and points and whatnot, but I do know that there's five thousand bucks less in my retirement account today than when I last checked it three weeks ago.
So, yeah. Put me in the "tank" column.
You know, when I saw Paris a few years back, i thought, how the fuck do they do this? I come from NYC, with a density that would bother a well respected rodent, and everyone rushing around and acting like they'll rip your head off if you create a problem in their busy lives making money, and I come to a city with nothing taller than a silly but cool tower, and everyone sitting around drinking to all hours and just being awfully relaxed. How do they afford this? They're all living in the sweetest urban park in the world, and it's spotless. Well, awfully clean. How do they pay for it? I haven't bought anything French, and, I doubt many an American or Chinese has in years. What's up? I think I'm finding out now, slowly but surely.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Benny doesn't like Bordeaux or Cognac.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Wait - don't you do photo work? No french connection? :confused:
Benny, in Europe and Africa, France sells a boat load of products. Could be as small as some nice cheese or a bottle of wine, the Dynastars I like to ski, clothing/fashion, film, cars, aerospace for both civilian and military applications and bad ass nuclear reactors/fuel rod reprocessing plants and that is, I am sure, the tip of the ice berg. Maybe your kidding around with your comments, but if not, you need to travel more and have an open mind. I have always loved France and have a lot of respect for what the country has to offer. Someday, I too would like to sit around and talk with my friends all day while drinking coffee or wine.:wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Edit: just saw this in another thread: [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUQI6hJgEE0"]YouTube- Fort Boyard[/nomedia] Watch 2 minutes and tell me the French don't work for you.
Now back to our regularly schedule crash thread.
Oh sure. A few. But, explain to me the quality of life. The nationally mandated five week vacation. For everyone. Every single fucking working slob. No out of pocket health care for life. The early retirement. The job for life security. The incredibly sexy women prancing off to work late in the morning, high heels, hot dress, hair and nails just so ....... oh, waitaminute, got distracted. Anyway, compare that to the real hubs of capitalism over the last twenty years, like NYC, London, Hong Kong, and Shanghai, where people actually hustle for the profit. Why do they deserve that life?Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Conway
Sure, but all the ambitious Frogs move to NYC to make a good living.
So with tomorrows Non Farm Payrolls number predicted to be a big one:
This Friday the NFP report from the BLS could easily surpass 700,000 people, driven primarily by temporary census hirings and by Birth/Death adjustments. The Census Bureau reported that between the weeks of May 9 and May 15, there were 573,779 employed census workers. In the prior month, for the week ended April 17, there were 156,335 census workers employed, or a differential of 417,444 newly hired census workers between April and May. Keep in mind that in the May NFP report, the benefit from census workers was at 66,000, or 90,335 less than the Census reported number. As a result, due to the BLS' voodoo math and double counting, its is distinctly possible that the Census alone will add up to 507,779 workers (organic hirings of 417k and the plug for the prior period of 90k). Also, recall that the Birth-Death adjustment in April "added" another 188,000 workers. Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/loo...payroll-number
And then on the flip side:
The Chicago PMI employment index dropped like a rock on 5/28/2010 from 57.2 to 49.2. This is a leading indicator of employment which now shows contraction. Only the fools and shills will get excited about Friday's "strong" report.
May be a good time to buy that 3X long (UPRO) going into tomorrow, for the big uptick and then sell before the afternoon "O shit, the books were cooked" sell off.
What do you doods think?
I've been adding long risk for a few weeks. I will not add this week. Way too many cross-currents and mixed signals:Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Negatives:
1. SP failing at 200 day MA
2. Euro failing to hold gains.
3. Oil leak getting worse
4. North Korea heating up again.
5. Need to consolidate gain today and not have a selloff late.
Positives
1. Weak Euro. DAXI over 6000. This is good and bad therefore listed on both sides
2. Nikkei up 3.2% last night.
3. Interest rates low
4. Dollar steady.
5. A/D line turing positive.
6. A chance that we close over the 200 day..
7. Gas prices down.
8. High hedge fund cash.
etc. etc..
I wouldnt worry about North Korea. Its not exactly a secret they hate S Korea. Anything heats up China shuts down their oil supply with two middle fingers extended.
These late selloffs though are a fucking killer. That NFP is probably mostly baked in anyway, with much of it census work I dont think its a huge deal unfortunately
Nice take 4matic. You echo much of what I have read, but more. I appreciate that.
"So much for that 700,000 expectation. At 431k, less 411k census, and 31k from temporary help services, it sure doesn't look good even without the 215k birth-death adjustment which only conspiracy theorists look at according to Mr. Liesman. 431k minus 411k minus 31k minus 215k = -226k. Nuf said. In other news, those unemployed longer than 27 weeks hits a new record at 46%. Nothing conspiratorial about that number".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/non...djustment-215k
Fucking Ouch. Glad I missed this trade.
ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)
127.37down -$14.23 -10.05%
I think we may start to see the slow steady grind down in the markets. Can't see GDP being anything other than flat for 3rd and 4th qtrs. Sure, 2009 was a very bad year, so the yr over yr numbers will look better but nothing to hang your hat on. Euro is going down to parity with USD, which will be great for my Ski trip to Europe in 2011 :cool:. All those austerity programs will lead to recession in EU zone. Trickle down will hit the U.S.
And just reading the Real Estate Crash thread leads me to believe the HELOC problem in CA, and probably places like AZ, FL and maybe a few other hot bed RE markets will bring any economic expansion to a halt.
But right now the company I work for is as busy as we have ever been in the last 10 years.
There ain't no money no more.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2073...equences-of-m3
goldman will give the treasury a loanQuote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
I moved 50% of my 401k to money market 2 days ago. So far I'm a genius. Toadman is right. Double dip on the way. 2nd dip worse than the first?
IF one thinks the market will hit 7000 before it sees 11,000, what would you do with the 401k. Keep it in cash? Gold? Ultra short funds?
Roubini is dancing around tonight, singing, "how do you like me now, mofos"?
roubini doesnt like short term market calls though right? he's just a macroeconomist and doesnt play the market? or he only makes calls when the market goes down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Downbound- if you think the market is going to go to 7000, see what you can get into in terms of international bonds. Sovereigns. And cash. I dont know if you have the option of shorting in your 401k...I only have mutual fund options.
Templeton Global Bond is fantastic. PIMCO TR of course but they are a little more benchmark aware which isnt exactly great. US Dollars would be a solid and safe play though, if the market goes to 7000. If it does go to 7000 though, once it gets down there, load up on risk/EM, and hit the wave back up.
I'll repeat for the last time. Roubini does not make market calls. He called the financial crisis, and he has called this continuing deflation. Get used to it. It is far from over. Spain is next, Japan is all played out, and even kindly old Buffett is predicting a sovereign debt crisis in America by warning about a muni and state debt crash soon.
When France descends into a morass of daily national strikes in a few years, that will be the end of the Euro. Then it's our turn.
That said, for your 401k, I'd do US treasury funds. That's the safety call for a year or maybe two.
Seconded.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Most people are paying 2/20 for what these guys provide.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...jugular/57696/
i hope somebody here is short...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eur...ckage-jeopardy
^^^^^^^
Those folks back in Feb. who shorted the Euro are looking pretty good right now.
If Deutschland does block participation, then world markets will take a 10% hit. It'll be Lehman Bros. and then some all over again. Rebalanced my 401 (k) last week. Sadly my plan doesn't have a lot of options for a market decline. (T Rowe Price). Pretty much a few bond funds, one being federal gov't T bills. The other is a Money Market fund, which is basically earning Fed Window rates. But better that than losing 20%-30% of my balance.Quote:
Europe saying enough to record deficits, and in essence potentially putting the end to the avalanche of endless bailouts and the Bernanke Uber-Put. At least such is the case until tomorrow when Europe's bureaucrats wake up and see a EURUSD at a level that rounds down to 1.10. The reason: Der Spiegel reports that Germany's high court is considering blocking Germany's participation in the European rescue package, a development which if it were to come to pass, would send the euro plunging to parity not with the dollar but with zero.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gfi...t-ups#commentsQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
^^^^ I wish everyone understood what is going on and demanded jail time for the offenders, as this game is definitely rigged.
Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down