Damn - 300 pips move in euro in less than 2 hours. Don't see that too often. Now that's a dead cat bounce
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Damn - 300 pips move in euro in less than 2 hours. Don't see that too often. Now that's a dead cat bounce
OK, got it. I have never bought puts being an ETF jong. I spent some time reading up on it though and think I get it. To be sure, say you bought your put when GS was $145 a share and it cost you $9 a share for the option. Your strike price is $150, so when the option expires in July and say GS is at $120, then $150-120+9=$21 a share profit?Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Thanks for the insight. I now know enough to be dangerous:fmicon:
The puts increase in price as GS goes down so basically its a way for me to make $ as GS's stock price goes down but to limit my downside (ie there's a maximum i could lose). I bought the puts when they were out of the money ie when GS was more then $ 150.
There's a lot written about options which i won't repeat but basically their value is tied to the price of the underlying share, the volatility of the share and the time remaining in the option.
Basically i just wanted a very binary outcome bet that those cocksuckers would go down hard and had been making small bets against GS for about a couple of years (ie buying out of the money puts on them from time to time and losing my money on those bets) in the hope that one bet would pay off - & hopefully this is it
Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Oh yeah, I sold the long oil and short bonds short term trades for 4 points profit I should have bailed the whole trade on Mondays gift but as of todays close I'm probobly down 1-2% on the rest of the trade. BRK and JPM are holding up ok. I bought these for long term plays but should have taken the gift that Monday the 10th was. I bought some IBM today and added to my mutual fund positions for a total reallocation of about 15% of equity. I was glad we ended on the lows today because of an additional 3% allocation. There is now broad support below the market so a turnaround could happen at anytime but support levels really mean nothing in this kind of market. Right now we are at the February lows.. I'm currently at 50/50 and will go to 80/20 Stocks/Income if we head lower. It could be the end of the world but I really expect sideways to down for the next several months. "Buy in May and get Slayed" :fm:
IBM is trading at 6 times 2011 earnings. SP5000 is at something like 12 times.
Was I greedy? Yes.. Was I wrong? To early to tell. I will buy more stock on big down days. Good luck!
Buying premium now is VERY risky. You want to buy premium when the VIX is low.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Very troubling that equity did not bounce off that. Scary..Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
the plunge protection team and the know nothing talking heads on cnbc will be busy tomorrowQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
So what's your strategy?Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
you can afford tin?:yourock:
Heh. Yeah. Beats gold. I just don't believe in the PPT. Program trading for sure but the fed isn't buying stock.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
just been long some vanguard funds.. got flat late feb... all $ in money market at the moment.. expecting a further drop., but too cautious/poor to be short, i think swings will be quite large.. more days like the 1,000 point drop and recovery day to come... i've always been a chart reader/trend follower/timer/moldy straw hat type trader.. i make $ ,but i'm sure i'm not in your leagueQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
[QUOTE=4matic;2871139] I just don't believe in the PPT. QUOTE] i used to be a skeptic as well , but the mold pattern in my hat tells me i was/might/posssibly/maybe was wrong
Trust me. I don't trade except when there are periods like this. I just love this crap and follow it 24 hours a day and have for 25 years. I work on the data side of the business and many years ago hosted a daily infomercial on the old FNN where I pitched risky investments.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Nikkei opens down 2% at 9823. I like the Nikkei down here..
sayonaraQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Well, if the market opens way off Friday, you can thank me and all the people that redeemed exchanged their mutual funds tonight out of stock and into money markets. Watch it bounce to the + side after 3 down days:rolleyes: Doesn't matter though, I have hated this market for 6 months and it is time for me to be all out and just do more SDS buys here and there if it looks like it is going dooooowwwnnnn.;)
Why not treasury funds? The CNBC barkers were all saying that was doomsville if and when interest rates rise, but, that ain't happening for a while. The Deflationists just made a statement. USA! USA!
http://www.forecast-chart.com/histor...ikkei-225.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Can you say cally tlade? That's been about it for the last decade. They're next, by the way, or maybe third or fourth in line, and that will make the Greece thing look like child's play. But, you won't see those horribly polite people rioting in the streets. They take their lumps quietly and gracefully.
^^^ What was interesting about that chart for me Benny, is how little that index has come back, percentage wise, compared to the Dow/S&P indexes. Obviously the Fed has been pumping up our market, while the Japanese are like "BFD, we have been dealing with this for 10 years, next".
The thing that is good news for Japan, is even though they have a huge deficit to GDP, it is all enternally financed. No IMF or foriegn creditors eventually crushing them like the good ol USA, if we don't get spending under control.
hold onto your nuts/pussy, we are going for a free fall again
fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkk
To a degree, thats exactly what is hurting them. They have so much in savings- their investors/retirees/pensions/whatever, that they have no trouble buying their gov'ts debt. This keeps rates low, and noone outside the country wants to invest in Japan when their rates are so low. To encourage foreign investment and pump up their economy, they need those rates to bump up. Its tough for such a developed economy to do it from within.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Pffftt, I rather have Japan's savings problem than the USA's spending/no savings issues. Historically, the way you get fucked, is with high deficits and no savings. Then you are at the mercy of said "Foreign Investors" that demand higher rates and fiscal austerity. Just ask Greece.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Considering its tied ionto their 20 year tailspin, their savings awesomeness has helped...how? I guess helped them not totally default but at the same time keeping them in a deflationary spiral.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Being at the mercy of foreign investors is only a problem if your country presents zero opportunities for investment. Which means nothing worthy to invest in, or things that may be ok, but that pay nothing (Japanese debt). Having growth opportunities drives this, along with rates. Which is why the US has had a trade defecit for many many years. Foreign investment in things that grow our economy. Not a bad thing at all. As long as foreign investment goes toward actual investment and not consumption youre fine. Even if your net fiscal account is positive (more foreign investment in your country than what your country invests in others).
Greece is different because it cant alter its currency due to it being part of the EU. Their government has no money because...people dont pay taxes. Zero. Its like commonplace to either cheat on taxes or just dont pay. The government spends just as much if not more than others, and they dont collect. Its like Greece is trying to fuck itself over.
"This Is An Uber Bear Early Warning Alert...Major Risk Asset Sell Off Will See S&P Into 800s"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob...-800s#comments
"Dear All - its seems to me that:
A - Risk markets can stabilise/rally a tad this week, perhaps a little into the week after, but overall there is a decent chance of a VERY SERIOUS risk asset sell-off late May/early June into late June/early Jul....I am talking ANOTHER 10%/10%+ off S&P from here....
OR
B - After more weakness into late May/early Jun, we can then see some stability over JUNE, before a MAJOR 10%/15% PUKE begins in/into Jul
Sorry I can't be more precise, but net net it seems clear to me that the key risk here is of major risk asset sell off, with (eventually) S&P into the 800s, iTraxx Crossover up at 750/750+, a 5/10 big figure EURO Puke vs the USD, a broad USD rally, and 10yr USTs down at mid/low 2% levels. Whether we see a small bounce next week before the big selloff, or whether we see another week of weakness, followed by a month of 'strength' and then the big puke is not I think particularly crucial - the overall trend is the key. And in this respect, whilst following either of the above routes would then lead to a brief multi-month period of consolidation, the overall trend for the rest of 2010 will be weaker with respect to growth & risk assets/markets, and higher with respect to volatility. Key levels are (S&P cash) 1180 to the upside (and then 1220) and, to the downside, the 1020/1040 area. If we close below 1020 S&P, it would be very negative, implying that a mid-to-high 800s S&P is right around the corner..."
I pretty much agree with this guys observations, but only time will tell.
Japan's problem, more than anything mentioned, is demographics. They have no young people of their own growing up to support the massive boomer bulge (yes, they have one, too, and it's much bigger, in a relative way), and, since they are so "homogenous" or, racist, they have no other citizens in the pipeline like we do to take up the slack. I heard today, that, by 2020, their GDP will drop by 20% simply because it will be a nation of sacrificing for the common good retirees. They actually grudgingly accept the cutbacks in pensions, even private pensions, instead of rioting and burning banks. Now, that's teamwork. Thank God they don't have a military with a nuke arsenal.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Exactly, the demographics lead to a huge amount of savings being invested in their government's debt. This keeps rates low (many buyers means low "prices" to the government) and keeps foreign investment out of the country. So the government borrows and borrows from its citizens, funding anything but economic growth (no foreign investment).Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
If they could take some of this savings (problem) and put it toward some consumption, enticing businesses to grow, maybe theyd have something. Too much savings is deflationary, almost worse that the US's problem of too little savings and too much borrowing.
US markets are pretty quiet this morning all considered. I'm taking some heat but I'm not nervous...yet. That's probobly a bad sign. If we stay down today I'll buy some stock. Although the February (1044) low is the magic number right now and it has been broken. I'm looking at Deutsche Bank (DB) and the QQQQ for individual issues and just any broad based fund on further weakness. Good luck.
DOW down 360:eek:. It will be interesting to see if/when the FEDS Plunge Protection Team intervenes via GS. Looking for huge volume late in the day on the S&P 500 index.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Edit: and then 15 minutes later I see this post. Guess the PPT wasn't waiting today.
"The S&P just took out 2010 intraday lows set in February. The response was an immediate bounce and a jump in volume as the "counterintuitive" bid steps in to prevent a massive rout, even as the NYSE is still broken. Have fun trading this busted mess".
And then when I need a good laugh on down days: [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAKsMnAM8vk&feature=related"]YouTube- Poof it's gone![/nomedia]
Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Actually down 292 at the low of the day. About 100 points lower than the low last Thursday.
Ya, it is odd that MSN had the down 360 on the website big as day when I posted that. Maybe they were a little ahead of themselves.:wink: Love how the PPT defended the S&P 1040 support another day. This game is rigged for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
More good news for Lees GS July trade: http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...25&id=11541943
Fraud when it goes up and legit when it goes down. That argument is just silly.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Just a few million peoples opinion, but hey, what can you buy with an opinion, nothing. I appreciate your optimism to offset my pessimism. Just be careful, as I think it is likely the S&P ends up in the mid 800 range at some point in the next few months. Safer to be out now, but if you have the balls to buy for the bounce, good on ya.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Except GS is up 2% today....Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Of course they are as a prime recipient of PPT support. But in the long run the continued litigation will hurt them IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Sock
maybe, but 2 months out is hardly considered the long runQuote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Class actions of this type are basically a non-event. Interesting reading sometimes but often just boring templatesQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Reason I do the GS trade (out of the money puts every six months) is so I don't have to watch the ticker. If this batch expires worthless I'll just do it again but on Jan 11. It's basically just a hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Sock
Gettin close to a bottom. 9600 on the DOW is my guess.
Your guess might be a bit on the high side according to some.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
Quote:
Yes, the game may be "in the refrigerator," the lights will go out, but as Soros hints, the electricity may get turned off too. Get it? This may not be a correction. Not even a bear. What's coming could be worse than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 meltdown combined, a "Super-Bubble" says Soros. And the biggest reason, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm tell Newsweek, is that "the president's half-measures won't fix our failed financial system" because he refuses to "bust up the too-big-to-fail banks."
Yes, Congress will pass something. But unfortunately, as reported on MSNBC, Senator Dodd, the reform bill's sponsor, is a turncoat, working overtime with Wall Street lobbyists "to weaken financial reform," leave us vulnerable to a new, bigger crash in the near future. And Wall Street lobbyists are spending hundreds of millions to kill reform.
'White Swans:' 2000 and 2008 crashes were predictable, next one too
Recently Roubini was interviewed by Charlie Rose in BusinessWeek. His message confirms the worst. Roubini was questioned about his new book, "Crisis Economics." Rose began by asking, "what have we learned from these crises of capitalism?" Roubini could easily have said, "nothing, we learned nothing." His actual reply:
"The first lesson is that crises are not 'black swan' events ... they're not just random outcomes. They are the result of a buildup of financial and policy vulnerability and mistakes -- excessive risk-taking, leverage, debt, and so on." They are 'White Swans' "because these events are predictable. But generation after generation, we seem to forget the past. When there's a bubble, there's euphoria. There's irrational exuberance. Consumers can use their homes like ATM machines. Governments and policy makers are happy because they get reelected. Wall Street makes billions of dollars of profits. Everybody's delusional."
Sound familiar? Yes indeed, in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff pinpoint the key signal that will blow the whistle and call the game: The "90% ratio of government debt to GDP is a tipping point in economic growth." For 800 years "you increase it over and beyond a high threshold, and boom!"
Warning, fans, the numbers on the game-clock are flashing wildly. America's ratio is now 92%, thanks to Obama's $1.7 trillion budget, future deficits, exploding debt. Soon, Ka-Booom! Another great nation bites the dust. Depression follows. Goodbye retirement.
Warning: 800 years of history are calling 'game over'
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Roubini has been bearish for 4000 dow points..
Today was like the rumble in the jungle when ali said to foreman and in this case the bulls to the bears, "is that all you got?" Gave the bears the ole rope-a-dope.
Fact is, it was so quiet after the opening spin a rally was inevitable. A bit of premium on the futures right now. Deutsche Bank is trading at 4.5 EPS..
True, and then you have the flip side of the coin with the Fed talking bullish on the economy. With respect to DB, who knows what they are on the hook for with loans to the PIGS. Suppose Germany would bail them out like U.S. did with AIG.
As always - the last 2 hours - are the PPT's best - (just like last Friday)
And many many many times - last year - last 2 hours
(you can almost set your watch to it)