Is the stock market going to tank?

Talked to a guy about renting an existing home to buy something else, and they're only counting rental income if you have 30% equity (almost no one these days) or have 2 years of rental history. Sales will slow further as the only people buying are first-time buyers, and it's essentially impossible for anyone to move up - can't sell, can't use rental income for buying something else, can't say "fuck it" to the old, far underwater house and still get a loan to buy a new place. Gonna be a looooonnng, slow recovery.

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Originally Posted by Bean

Sales will slow further as the only people buying are first-time buyers, and it's essentially impossible for anyone to move up - can't sell, can't use rental income for buying something else, can't say "fuck it" to the old, far underwater house and still get a loan to buy a new place. Gonna be a looooonnng, slow recovery.

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Actually properties are selling here in Denver IF they are turn key for non first time home buyers and ft home buyers. People are moving up, but they put 20% or more into the house they are selling. So they are breaking even, but they are also getting a deal on their purchase.

The big money players are snatching up properties left and right. Things are moving here in Denver. Even new homes sales are moving. That's my late night pov from the trenches anyways.

I'll introduce the Baseball Talk bubble sign here

When economic talk is indistinguishable from Baseball babble, i.e entirely content free and only filling space, the bubble hasn't burst.

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Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Gold's been capped at 930, I'm looking for a breakout shortly, if not today.

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933.......giggity........

Covered all my shorts. Biggest gainer was FAS from 11.80, out at 8.80.

Price has rejected 8300, retesting the 8274 level as we speak. We end the day below, we're probably on our way to retesting 8000.

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Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Covered all my shorts. Biggest gainer was FAS from 11.80, out at 8.80.

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Wise move. First support at 880 held and we're off again. Right here at 900+ SP is where the bears would reshort a corrective rally so that could add fuel to the bullish fire. Gold also failed at resistance. After a 260 point move the speed people turned bearish is s good sign were headed higher. Maybe a lot higher. I have my postcard ready..

After a good week staying fixed I moved back to the mkt this morning...hopefully it can just return modest gains and stay steady- last week wasnt nearly as bad as I thought, so i hope it isnt lagging and is a sign the first and second downturns (last fall and to march 9) erred on the downside and its a good time to get in on cheap prices.

p.s. I have no idea how to read technicals. You chartists are sick in the head.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

After a good week staying fixed I moved back to the mkt this morning...hopefully it can just return modest gains and stay steady- last week wasnt nearly as bad as I thought, so i hope it isnt lagging and is a sign the first and second downturns (last fall and to march 9) erred on the downside and its a good time to get in on cheap prices.

p.s. I have no idea how to read technicals. You chartists are sick in the head.

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It's voodoo nonsense, for every "TA expert" who says the patterns are clearly showing a big rally, there'll be one who says it's going the opposite way.

Example: posts 526 and 527 in this thread, on this page.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Wise move. First support at 880 held and we're off again. Right here at 900+ SP is where the bears would reshort a corrective rally so that could add fuel to the bullish fire. Gold also failed at resistance. After a 260 point move the speed people turned bearish is s good sign were headed higher. Maybe a lot higher. I have my postcard ready..

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Much like poker, when you had a good streak, pick up your winnings and leave. I sidelined today and planted veggies.

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Originally Posted by Bean

It's voodoo nonsense, for every "TA expert" who says the patterns are clearly showing a big rally, there'll be one who says it's going the opposite way.

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Well that's your problem right there, you are listening to "experts". Those jokers don't know anything.

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Originally Posted by Bean

It's voodoo nonsense, for every "TA expert" who says the patterns are clearly showing a big rally, there'll be one who says it's going the opposite way.

Example: posts 526 and 527 in this thread, on this page.

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you got to stick with what works for ya. I wasn't prepared to see a 200 point drop, so I'm out. Capital preservation is key.

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Originally Posted by Rubicon

Well that's your problem right there, you are listening to "experts". Those jokers don't know anything.

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They know how to get paid very well for knowing Jack Shit ;) so yet again I'll disagree with you ;)

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

They know how to get paid very well for knowing Jack Shit ;) so yet again I'll disagree with you ;)

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When you put it that way, that's actually pretty impressive.

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Originally Posted by ICEHOCEY77

Capital preservation is key.

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Can't agree more. Mindless black box algorithms, gov't intervention, insiders and marketmakers are tough opposition. Current equity markets are trading on 70% sentiment and 30% technicals. Fundies are dinosaurs and price discovery is a joke.

If you can figure out where the sentiment lies- and be unbiased and objective in your thinking- I think it goes a long way to a macro opinion or even sector bets.

Doesnt matter if you think its total bullshit or if the stress tests dont work or if the market is going to crash and the sky is falling. That doesnt put money in your account. If you can gauge what news will make people think- or what likely outcoming news is likely to make investors do, youre ahead in the game.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Gold also failed at resistance. After a 260 point move the speed people turned bearish is s good sign were headed higher. Maybe a lot higher. I have my postcard ready..

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I'll send you a postcard from gold 1200/oz before you send me a postcard from 1100 S/P. ;) Yesterday was a classic knockdown at the open, but gold made back most of that loss overnite. Lotsa big money has/is rolling in for the next move higher.

Miners are en FUEGOOOOOHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)

Keep an eye on the USDX.......82.10 and falling.

yeah they are! So do I hop off before close or do you think this is going to keep on?

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Originally Posted by khakis

yeah they are! So do I hop off before close or do you think this is going to keep on?

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Usually I pare out of a 1/3 - 1/2 position on a day like this and try to pick it up again lower, the miners get body slammed. But it looks like the stars are aligning for the metals, so I'm staying long into the open tomorrow and reassessing. There's some air under the USDX 82. I'm looking for gold at
~1000 or higher by July, maybe sooner.

sweet thanks, I got into PAAS at 15.35 (probably based on one of your posts) and am pretty happy with that decision right now

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Originally Posted by khakis

sweet thanks, I got into PAAS at 15.35 (probably based on one of your posts) and am pretty happy with that decision right now

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good work on that

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Originally Posted by khakis

sweet thanks, I got into PAAS at 15.35 (probably based on one of your posts) and am pretty happy with that decision right now

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Good one. :yourock: I was adding back from 14-19. Been in it since the 5's. Bill Fleckenstein is on the board. He's a pretty solid guy, imo (He's a heli skier so he's gotta be of maggot quality). Used to subscribe to his news letter for about 8 years. He saved me a lot of grief on the long side of the market. Lock n load, baby.

Thanks guys, it's about the only stock I've made any money on lately. Cool factoids on PAAS. Wish I had been in it since it was 5! I got cold feet after my last post though and got out.

Any idea why kgc doesn't seem to follow the rest of the metals/mining very closely? I am still in it and looking for a chance to get out.

KGC doesn't follow because they are a worthless mining company with basically no real producing properties...

KGC and AUY are pretty much twins in their price fluctuations. Gold won't play like silver or base metals such as nickel. They each have their own set of commodity fundamentals that drive price.

Likewise, you have to compare size and diversity. McP's FCX flucuates much like RTP. Both are large diversified miners... just RTP (which is larger) is worth about 4x FCX.

I had AUY for their last run and turned a nice profit, still holding a small position. I've moved on to a few smaller gold plays now with nice returns.

There are some great plays to be made on very very small, one-mine-wonders right now, for sure.

And GeoMatt is spot on, the size and diversity of a mining company plays a lot into it....KGC Rev 1.82B, FCX Rev 17.7B, RTP 29.7B----They all have very different responses..

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Originally Posted by khakis

Thanks guys, it's about the only stock I've made any money on lately. Cool factoids on PAAS. Wish I had been in it since it was 5! I got cold feet after my last post though and got out.

Any idea why kgc doesn't seem to follow the rest of the metals/mining very closely? I am still in it and looking for a chance to get out.

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Even dead cows fly in a tornado. KGC is fine, a few big hedgies have been accumulating. It'll print 19 and higher as the sector moves up. GRS was a gift last week. It got dropped hard under 7 due to strike rumors. I jumped in on the 2nd day down, it it made up almost all the loss already.

wow and now my knowledge on mining stocks has doubled...
though McPoser's first post was so eloquent :D

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Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Even dead cows fly in a tornado. KGC is fine, a few big hedgies have been accumulating. It'll print 19 and higher as the sector moves up. GRS was a gift last week. It got dropped hard under 7 due to strike rumors. I jumped in on the 2nd day down, it it made up almost all the loss already.

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I think I hate your posts more than any others on TGR, and that's saying a lot. The rest of you financial gurus are not far behind, but this fuckwad wins.

Either give us a heads-up, in English, or SHUT THE FUCK UP.

quit beating off when you post about how smart you are and maybe we'll get along. Doubtful as shit, but who knows?

edit: Rob Story,you fucking RUINED this place for a couple of grand and a SKI magazine credit, fuck you.

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Originally Posted by iceman

I think I hate your posts more than any others on TGR, and that's saying a lot. The rest of you financial gurus are not far behind, but this fuckwad wins.

Either give us a heads-up, in English, or SHUT THE FUCK UP.

quit beating off when you post about how smart you are and maybe we'll get along. Doubtful as shit, but who knows?

edit: Rob Story,you fucking RUINED this place for a couple of grand and a SKI magazine credit, fuck you.

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It's a market thread. If you hate my posts, put me on ignore. Only a fucktard is gonna take trade or investment ideas from a stranger on the interwebz without checking things out for themselves first. Suck it up, butthurt. I don't shit down your throat about your means of making a living. :fuckyou:

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Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Only a fucktard is gonna take trade or investment ideas from a stranger on the interwebz without checking things out for themselves first.

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:tongue:
I think of daytrading as a gamble and the market's short-term fluctuations almost entirely dependent on the general public's hysteria at the moment. Strangers on the interwebz are a great source of data points/indicators for this phenomenon. :)

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Originally Posted by khakis

:tongue:
I think of daytrading as a gamble and the market's short-term fluctuations almost entirely dependent on the general public's hysteria at the moment. Strangers on the interwebz are a great source of data points/indicators for this phenomenon. :)

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That's the juice. Similar rush you get when playing poker, etc. Nothing wrong with info on the web as long as you can check it out independently.
PS Another nice day for the miners, Au/Ag movin on up. ;) USDX took a huge drop.

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Originally Posted by Moeghoul

It's a market thread. If you hate my posts, put me on ignore. Only a fucktard is gonna take trade or investment ideas from a stranger on the interwebz without checking things out for themselves first. Suck it up, butthurt. I don't shit down your throat about your means of making a living. :fuckyou:

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The day to day blogging of your mining stocks is annoying. If you and khaki and whoever else want to chop it up about your specific plays, you deserve your own thread for that. I'd like to see this thread go back to the original discussion of overall market health and ways regular folks can cover their asses in a nutty market.

Two days in a row now for Au/Ag/U companies. I'm holding UEXCF, URG, and TGB right now.


Anyone have some general thoughts on what the petroleum industry is going to do over the next 6 to 12 months? I had a Bakken play for a little while this spring, made some money and got out; but I can't stop thinking that at these prices I should shovel some more money at the larger players for the long term.

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Originally Posted by Platinum Pete

The day to day blogging of your mining stocks is annoying. If you and khaki and whoever else want to chop it up about your specific plays, you deserve your own thread for that. I'd like to see this thread go back to the original discussion of overall market health and ways regular folks can cover their asses in a nutty market.

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WTF dude, less than a page (out of 23!) of discussions about mining/metals stocks and how to use them as part of your investment strategy is EXACTLY what I would consider valid in a discussion of "ways regular folks can cover their asses in a nutty market"

Day to day is an exaggeration. I mentioned precious metals over the past coupla weeks because they looked ripe for a move higher and that's where I'm focused tradewise.
Market health? Take a poll. Some are bullish, some are bearish. If the S/P can hold above 870ish by the end of next week, we'll prolly see equities rally higher into June.

if...prolly...lots of ifs and probablys and maybes everywhere

+1 for more market health overall. Not as though Id mind a mining/metals thread. McP can be really really helpful in that, he seems to know a lot about the mines themselves- stuff finance people may not know.

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Originally Posted by khakis

WTF dude, less than a page (out of 23!) of discussions about mining/metals stocks and how to use them as part of your investment strategy is EXACTLY what I would consider valid in a discussion of "ways regular folks can cover their asses in a nutty market"

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fine. Make it a conversation for 3-5 people instead of the dozens of folks checking in here before.