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If we clear SP00 950 with any momentum the gap at 1100 is in play. 950 is significant but the moentum of this move is impressive. Eight out of that last nine weeks have been higher for SP00. NAS is up nine weeks straight. INDU is the week leg and it may lead the way higher from here with the temporary rotation out of tech. I'd probobly be a seller above 1050 SP00.
I'm outta everything long except precious metals today. Plan to start shorting next week, if history is a guide there isn't much steam left in this move.
I love that the markets are rallying on bad news spun as good news. What use are official unemployment numbers when they end up revising them substantially upwards for two more reporting periods? Not to mention the total joke of the stress tests. Reality is already worse than their "worst case" scenario.
stock markets are for people who are slave to the man! free yourselves from its shackles!
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Originally Posted by Moeghoul
History? On the weekly chart you have an acceleration out of a reverse head and shoulders with a gap at 50% retracement of the whole move at 1100.
Good luck with your shorts..
http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart...artUi.minutes=
The prices seen in the past were based off of the assumption of much worse numbers. THats why "less bad" is good. The expectation reflected in the past was even worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bean
Unemployment isnt a huge thing- I think the fact that the banking system as a whole didnt completely fail the stress tests is what the market rallied on. Sure, some banks need more money, and thats fine. But its not like the whole system got crushed.
And reality is nowhere near worst case the stress tests had. Check out the stats on the recession in the early 1980s. This isnt the first recession in history, and I dont see any breadlines out my door. Yeah, 9% unemployment sucks, but its happened before. Losing so much ground in the stock market has happened before (just not as fast). When it comes to stocks and pricing and markets, theres not much "spin". People can generally figure things out for themselves and make financial decisions based on it.
Historically after big crashes the bear rally in the following year died in April or May. Send me a postcard from the top. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Rally in financials was prolly done with boatloads of tarp money, and the banks bought back and bought each others stock ramming them higher for more dilution at higher prices. Squeezing shorts and talk of the uptick rule prolly chased a few of them out as well. The Stress Tests were individually tailored for each bank, mark to market went to the wayside, nobody fails (wadda suprise), and the books are as suspect as they were before the crash. Wave 2 of the credit contraction is in sight. Can we see SP 1100? anything is possible but I doubt it.
The stress tests are total BS and yes, the worst case in the stress test is less bad than reality. I don't think "Brock Landers observes breadlines" is one of the factors analyzed during the test. CRE was, and the CRE bust is accelerating fast. Unemployment is already worse than the worst case scenario in the stress test.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
The numbers are bullshit. The rally is bullshit. The people who think it's getting better are idiots. There is no recovery, and won't be for a long time.
So the stress test was rigged a bit? What % of faith would you have in them? I'm not talking about actually buying a financial stock, but if they shit the bed again they will drag a lot down with them.
The banks are almost as shaky as before, but with a little more time holding these "toxic assets" and probably greater perspective on what that is or isn't - do I have that right? How does that effect things?
Wave2 or 3 of the credit smoosh is consumer credit and commercial property, right? Are these seen as connected much? If so, what are the indicators to look at - unemployment? consumer confidence? savings rate? Wal-Mart/Kroger/Target stock price?
What other sharks are in the water for the stock market right now?
I've got another chunk of cash to plop in the market - last time I put it in at around dow 7300, I'd love to buy in on the low again.
Told ya so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
Four Big US Banks Selling Stock To Repay TARP
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30681187
We'll prolly retest the lows. My outlook is we chop sideways and lower into June, then we hit an inflection to retest lows.
My informal survey of various business inventories/conditions would agree with you. Demand for transapacific flights is near zero. Hell, demand for just about any flights are near zero. Weekends, Prime business hours, doesn't matter. Same applies to anything related to consumers and anything related to corporations. Conditions seem worse than they were a month ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bean
In the real world, HC is right. This extends to clients who are broadband telcos who buy h/w and s/w; clients who process payments for gaming enterprises (that's right even poker playing handles are down); clients who build dams; clients who provide engineering services; consumer software providers to users of laptops and mobile devices. Friends who own bike shops and ski shops have reduced orders of goods for the coming season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Conway
The only business which is currently up is in collections and bad debt recoveries. Strangely even a client in pay day loans has seen gross revs down
Interesting how this week is going to be. Price has rejected the 8500 level three times. Throw in the 150 EMA level and this could be the beginning of the decline. I'll be watching the 8300 level as there is a Fibonacci support level that has done well as a price zone. If we end the week under the 8300 level, I'll be pulling my money out.
Just think of all the corrupt and illegal money was made in the past six weeks with Citi, among others, going from 1 to 4 (almost like a penny stock market, huh?). Let's see, a former Goldman employee, who replaced another Goldman CEO, takes a real long time releasing "stress tests" haha. He is competing with another advisor to the prez for his ear who got paid over 150,000 just to "speak" at a Goldman function last year, and made 5 million working one day a week for a hedge fund. They devise a bear market rally that will buy a few million here and there for summer expenses out in the Hamptons and Nantucket. Rumors are spread. Cheerleading is ratcheted up. "The banks are sound! The banks are sound!" They make it on the way up, and sell short last week. You are the sucka.
Why anybody would buy an American or Euro or Japanese bank right now is illogical, Captain. But crime pays.
Ever think that maybe some of these banks are priced really low? For example, you refer to Citi going from 1 to 4 as some sort of bullshit thing. What if Citi was never worth 1? What if it was worth something like 4, and on its way down from 50 or whatever, it missed/overshot its "true" market value?Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Ill give you some logic for why someone would buy a bank...the valuation is above the market price. Make sense?
How about they're insolvent and bankrupt, and wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for your forced charity, and will stay that way at least until housing prices stop going down, which won't happen for at least a year, probably two. But now it's like the old Soviet system, you know, the government pretends they're viable businesses, and they pretend to act like banks, and the employees pretend to work, as we pretend to pay them ....... hey, waitaminute, that last part is real.......Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Mr. Market is getting out his ugly stick, precious metals are getting ready to break out even higher.
Dollar is the new penny, Citi's just ahead of the curve for the coming hyperflation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
So what's someone with a few grand in cash in an IRA to do? This market is completely nonsensical. SKF should be a solid bet but it's been beaten down to hell on the basis of the stress-free tests.
Up over 40% in my IRA YTD...and I just put everything in the fixed/stable acct today. Im not real confident in anything really, right now. What are the options in your employer's IRA plan?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bean
Nice. Did you trade it or move from cash to equity at some point?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
An up close today would follow the recent pattern of one day corrections and based on the consensus here there still is no belief in the rally so we may have more than a bit further to go. I show some support at SP00 880.
Kept it in the cash/stable value account since last September until early March, where half went into my company's stock. Moved the other half into the SP500 index tracker and into the emerging markets portfolio mid march.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I just feel like IM better off locking in what Ive made- I feel like the market correction on a large scale has really happened. The lows came very hard very fast last Oct/Nov and again early this year, I feel like March and April corrected that but theres too much uncertainty to stay so exposed. I get 2 transfers/reallocations per month so if things look a little better during the month I can hop back in.
It kind of goes against all the long term investing ideals- buy and hold/long term investing/put it in the mkt and dont think about it, but there are some real opportunities to save a lot of money or buy at real low prices, with such volatility, i think its a bit foolish to just leave your money in a shitty market. Or to leave it out of the game while you can invest at ridiculous lows in an irrational market.
Stock market JONG here with 0 $ invested but what do you experts think of this chart?
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
This specific account is 100% self-directed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
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Originally Posted by 4matic
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Originally Posted by 4matic
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shorts are working fine. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
For a 401k the whole point is long term investing- not day trading.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bean
That said, I would just leave it in a fixed or stable value fund for right now. I pulled everything out yesterday, the numbers coming back are not looking good. No sense in leaving it out there just to get crushed. But dont get back in too late, getting in a little early is better than too late.
Market has been open 10 minutes and is already down almost 2% (SP500).
http://vodpod.com/watch/1096052-satu...?pod=misstrade
Pretty funny Macgruber skit about daytrading.
Actually it's a RIRA but agreed, I'm not looking to day trade with this. Any suggestions on anything specific for stable value that won't get chewed up by BS fees and inflation?
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Originally Posted by Moeghoul
Nice work! What's your timeframe? I'd buy a test of 800 SP for long term.
Only thing I'm adding long is gold and silver shares. Added back more PAAS at 19 this AM. Keep an eye on the USDX, dollar looks like it's ready to fall thruQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
.82 on its way back to .72 and lower.
No idea. I just use my employer's stable value fund paying fixed rate over the year (or for however long Im in). Not sure if all companies have this and youre using self-directed so youre on your own. I guess google it, shouldnt have a ton of fees for just a fixed account. Could also put it into short term govt bond fund.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bean
Anything safe, short term. CD may be longer than youre looking/less flexibility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
That's my time frame. Rallies are for selling. I'm 90% precious metal related shares, not really interested in any other sectors except utilities and energy at this point. Gold's been capped at 930, I'm looking for a breakout shortly, if not today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
decoupling will continue again i think, gold is going to shoot through the roof, oil i think is going to stay steady for now.
Bean, if you put it in something like inflation-protected bonds, I think that would set you up well for whenever this inflation kicks in. Gold fund for now would do well too. Check out the Van Eck hard assets fund. Not exactly safe, short term, liquid...but I think a quarter or half in that, half in stable value will work out
I wouldnt be buying silver if i were anybody. yes, silver has a chance for a breakout, but there is too much silver for it to be a real hedge against a bad economy like gold. i'd go with the gld and maybe platinum if you want to do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
for the overall market, expect a restest of the bottom to be starting soon or already started. the rally that started in march is one of the longest on record, expect a pullback. too soon to tell if we go to lower lows, but we still have to go thru a commercial real estate grinder like were doing with residential.
i have a hunch that another rally will start when the stimulus money really starts flying off the shelves, but besides that; i'm not expecting higher highs until fall.
Silver will get pulled higher with gold, the ratio will tighten as retailers start flocking to the "cheaper priced metal"Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiCougar
Here's some good bathroom literature to enjoy. Recent monthly US Treasury statement. Pretty ugly.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0409.pdf
Moeghoul- Are you buying physical gold and silver or GLD and SLV or something else entirely? trying to wrap my head around using paper not backed by anything ($) to buy paper (shares of SLV, etc) that is supposedly backed by something but could be backed by nothing just like the $.
I bought all my physical around 450/oz. Only trading paper now. Miners, GDX, GLD, some out of the money calls on a few miners. I like the miners for another round of consolidation in the industry with shares this cheap right now. Great day to catch a dip in them today. Lotsa critics about the GLD, SLV and similar ETF's whether or not they really have the goods or are loaded with gold/silver derivatives. Since there's no audit requirements for GLD, I guess we'll never know.
well, i guess we can agree to disagree, but in aug of 08, slv broke w/ gld and started following the mkt. its back with gld now, but i'm not convinced it'll rise at the same rate gld will ever again, theres too much silver out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
and real gold is a little safer, but the gld is safe if your trying the hedge a down mkt. unless youre going to hold real gold for years, its really not worth buying. all those that bought gold in feb were probably wishing they could have sold it back in 5 minutes on etrade in march.
Silver got a beating due to the unwinding of silver derivatives JPM inherited from BS as well as their own humongous silver short derivatives position. Take a look at the OCC quarterly reports for 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiCougar
Retail sales down 4% today. If we're a 70% consumer economy, that's not good. Or, look at it this way. In the pre crash days, we were all spending 6% more than what we made in America. Now, we're "saving" at least 4%, probably going to ten. So, how can the economy "recover" quickly with that 10-15% drop in spending? All the credit card companies are shutting down lines left and right, and 20% of houses are underwater, with that line rising daily. All the exotic mortgages of the late bubble are resetting this summer, and 100% of them are underwater. Many big time. That's another wave of foreclosures.
This was an interesting read today.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/bu...al/13ship.html
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...seltracker.jpg
http://www.vesseltracker.com/en/Port...eport/Map.html
I believe China and Brazil will take off soon, but, when you read that, wow. A lot of shipping ain't happening. I think I believe Marc Faber and Rodgers when they tell me to throw my money at commodities, especially food, but there may be a rolling 20-30% gain in the equity markets for 2 or 3 years, like in the depression. That's easy money, especially when you can get out quick with a few clicks on your computer.