Printable View
It could happen..
The only positives I find right now are:
1. Stronger dollar (some might say it's a negative)
2. Weak seasonal period.
3. Subsequent lows, March and June, have both fallen on quint derivitive expiration months near the expiration day.
4. S&P and NASDAQ holding well above previous lows.
Looks like that Hindenburg Omen is in action. Oh the humanity!Quote:
Originally Posted by Platinum Pete
Peter Kosta is a specialist on the NYSE and a regular CNBC commentator. He called the top and has been famously bearish. He just said if we hold the next couple days back up the truck and load up.. We'll see.
1260 is a magnet.
I wrote 1250 on the blackboard yesterday and dated it there is strong support down to about 1190. If that doesn't hold god only knows..Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Things really aren't that bad. The market is still up nearly 125% since the bull run started in 2002.
This shit has fresh lows written all over it. Russell holding up better though, so that tells you what they are thinking.
10700 dow
Dow bottomed out at 7200 during the last recession. We got a LONG WAY to go before things get that bad. It'll be back over 13K by Labor Day. There are too many steakheads and bloodsuckers on Wall St. to not have it happen.
What great stimulus will create this DOW 13K run? You got a line on a new fuel additive that will suddenly boost MPG by 50%? Maybe a new fertilizer that will increase crop yields by 100%. You sitting on the mother load of oil fields as yet undiscovered somewhere in the Western U.S.?Quote:
Originally Posted by ass-to-mouth
The steakheads will make it happen man. Have some faith.
Bump...
new stock market terms
CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use. [h/t RichL]
It's the Arctic - go North, young man, go north.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
bump and fuckity ouch.
i was wondering when this would get the bump.
13000 by labor day?? ahhaha
doesn't get much worse for a news weekend.....
Natural Disaster w/ Hurricane Ike
Econcomic Doom n Gloom 2x worse than before
and literally....a train wreck.:nonono2:
bout the only thing that is gonna cheer me up is buttloads of early season snow:eek:
Still going down...
DOW is more than 500 points down today:
-Lehman brothers declares Chapter 11 today
-Merril Lynch and BoA merging Today
-AIG needs ~$100B from the fed today
-Regulators shut 5 banks this weekend
the list goes on...
Another 500pts and we are lower than in the last 10 years and that is without inflation correction...
Boy am I glad I am still young enought to work 15 more years and not retire today...UGH...
Ira
oil @ $90 bucks a barrel and sinking fast. we'll see $40-$50 a barrel by columbus day.
Is this like your Dow 13,000 by labor day prediction? Thanks for your insight!Quote:
Originally Posted by ass-to-mouth
Nah. Cold beer it stays above 50 thru columbus day.Quote:
Originally Posted by ass-to-mouth
But holy sinking stocks batman!!! Down another 100 pts in first hour, hoping for a rebound here pretty soon...
in another thread (i can't find it right now. feel free to search for it if you like) i predicted oil would be at a $100 by labor day. at the time oil was at $145 and everyone else was freaking out and saying it was well on it's way to $200. so i was 1/2 right anyways.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizhnik
i dont think theres much reason for a rebound just yet. maybe interest rates will get cut, but i dont think thats going to stop anyone from finding safety. better to earn a little less in bonds than to lose in the stock market.
AIG downgraded, doesnt look good without a huge loan fast. What the fuck took them so long for this big restructuring plan anyway- theyve been fucked for a year now, looks like its too late.
Imagine being the capital or liquiidty manager at AIG today, or for the last few weeks. They are almost doomed.
1. screwed to begin with, struggling to fund
2. huge collateral calls on their CSA's triggered by downgrade.
3. now need even more liquidity... but who lends to a downgraded failure like AIG?
Bad thing is, they are counterparts to too many big financial organisations across the globe. The mess if AIG fails is mind boggling. I don't think the market can let them fail and will have to buddy-up to help them out.
I just washed some socks to keep my cash in.
You're getting dangerously close to money laundering...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hohes
So here's a paragraph from today's WashPost:
"The New York Federal Reserve said this morning that it had put an additional $50 billion into the banking system -- part of a global wave of liquidity offered by its counterparts in other countries. The European Central Bank added around $100 billion to the system, Tokyo $24 billion, and London $36 billion. "
So what's it mean 'putting $ into the banking system'? So the New York Fed 'puts in $50 billion'. They just call up, say Citibank, and say yo, ya need a few billion today?
Every morning most central banks conduct an Open Market Operation where, put briefly, they lend cash against eligible collateral (an ever widening list these days, which is a serious problem in it's own right). They put in enough cash to match demand and supply calculated for that day such that the price of cash hits their target interest rate, or so the theory holds. The theory requires all banks to lend surplus cash to other banks that need cash on the day. In times of crisis banks with surplus stop lending to banks with a need. They simply lend the money at a loss back to the central bank at the close. Its not supposed to be that way. So when this happens, CB's inject more cash by offering even more loans against eligible collateral. sometime they will re-enter the market later in the day to lubricate the system and restore confidence, thus encouraging long banks to lend. This should result in a closing interbank cash rate that day well below the target rate as the actual supply of cash well exceeds demand. What happens is that those who need the cash usually dont have enough fancy collateral to give to the CB anyway, so it requires healthy banks with spare collateral to step in and 'help out'. People (money market desks) dont help out during times like these, no price is worth the risk. So adding extra cash is becoming a less effective tool.
The Fed knows who needs cash and who has surplus. They also know who has spare quality collateral. They all but prompt them to take the cash on offer and pass it around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hohes
So what happens when they can't pay it back? They lose the collateral, and what does the CB do with the collateral? Sell it? Where's all this surplus cash coming from anyway?
Cant the CBs just buy or sell govt securities to alter the money supply? In this case, the Fed buying treasuries gives liquidity to the banks ?
Banks can take short term loans to meet capital requirements and the banks lend money at floating rates among themselves for the same purpose. Fund rates approached 6% yesterday so "liquidity" was injected into the funds structure to keep overnite rates near the 3.5% Discount Rate target.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tye 1on
Lots of info here http://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/cfa...drID=21&dtlID=Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Not all collateral is equal and the Fed demands a haircut (over collateralisation) depending on the quality. If you cant repay then you have defaulted on the Central Bank. That's one way to go out in huge style. Should that happen, the Fed then has your pledged/repoed assets and would at some stage sell them I assume.
In the case of AIG, it looks like the Fed will take AIG warrants (options) which in the case of AIG's inability to pay back the $85bn, the Fed can exercise those warrants and gets shares in AIG with payment being the cash already extended in the short term bridging loan. In short, AIG warrants are not really collateral at all. The Fed has basically said "here's a huge short term loan. If you can’t repay, we own 85% of you". AIG gets out of jail free.
Remember that non-bank Broker/Dealers Like LEH, ML, GS, MS etc don't have access to the Fed discount lending window. They can’t pledge collateral against a short term depo. So for the Fed to then bail out AIG, which certainly cant access the facility, is a very serious event. AIG is NY State regulated, not even Federally.
You should be concerned that AIG’s regulator has extraordinarily allowed the financial products entity within AIG to access valuable and usually legally ringfenced collateral within AIG’s insurance subsidiaries. That collateral is there to back up claims on your insurance policies, not to use as emergency collateral to obtain desperate funding due to very bad CDO trades (for which the average senior trader is probably paid about $500,000 per year plus the same or more in bonus. The good ones get much, much more.)
The surplus cash (at an individual commercial bank) comes from... borrowing more money than you have commercial assets: not usually intentional. Having long term debt against short term assets will bring it about. It's a great, but traditionally money-losing position to be in. If you do have this surplus cash, each and every day you are looking for the best place to put this surplus in the interbank money market. However, within the entire system, there is almost no surplus: all commercial banks should in theory be left with a very small balance at the central bank account at the close of each day (beyond any regulatory minimum balance). This presupposes that they lend to each other – which in non-crisis times is what happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
I like the fact that senior fed officials have stated that this deal is not a nationalization of AIG. Said with a straight face. Commons pretty much wiped out
dow below 8k bump
dow back over 8K bump
Classic Bear market action the last week. Slow grinding down with the occasional bounce. The only positive I have seen is stock futures trading with premium at times lately. No premium=No rally.
...rally
Did someone say 7,000!
Holy shit balls....end of day 11/20/08 = 7,552.29!!!!
Hot damn, our AG Edwards account is grasping for air but my savings and money market accounts are just killing it....well are positive at least..;)
Dow 5yr ----------
http://tetongravity.com/forums/attac...5&d=1227218754
Anybody think we'll see the market drop below 7000 before spring?
Below 6000 before end of 2009?
Above 20K by 2012? :rolleyes:
Might see <7000 before the end of next week at this rate...Quote:
Originally Posted by Platinum Pete
dow to levels not seen since 1997 - that would be the year i graduated high school. everybody get long on gold and short treasuries. that would help me out a lot. thanks.
I thought this thread was about the "Stoke Market" instead 18 pages later I am just really depressed.