Is the stock market going to tank?

^ this guy just wants to protect his daughter’s education money to the best of his ability.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Can’t blame the Fed for the couple banks that completely butchered their balance sheets and ALM. Interest rate and yield curve risk is like day 1 shit. Oh rates can change? Well fuck then.

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Well. You can maybe blame the fed a little. Oh if you move fast shit breaks? Well fuck then.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Can’t blame the Fed for the couple banks that completely butchered their balance sheets and ALM. Interest rate and yield curve risk is like day 1 shit. Oh rates can change? Well fuck then.

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Could turn into 50 banks. Maybe 100.

Too drunk when I wrote this, sorry 4matic. I hope 50 banks don't go under. Dealing with the highest inflation since 1981 is going to break some things. It is unfortunate the Fed didn't start tackling it a bit sooner, all that transitory stuff was wishful thinking. But here we are

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Could turn into 50 banks. Maybe 100.

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So you are an immaculate tightening guy? Pull in the reins and nothing ever breaks? Kind of like an immaculate poop. I've done it. But not all the time

Of course Fed could have started tightening and especially QT earlier. When they didn’t a surprise sledge hammer hike of a full point out of the blue without all the messaging. They can’t fine tune and shouldn’t try. Also, the markets are saying inflation is transitory. Who is right? The fed forecast record is not good.

We’ve had low unemployment for years prior with no inflation. The inflation in service wages is a good thing for the long term

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Originally Posted by BobMc

As someone that watched almost 6k go up in smoke via FRC, WAL is looking familiar…

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Ouch. My FRC loss was only about $800 after the little profit I made by bailing on WAL, and even that sucked.


Sent from my SM-S901U using TGR Forums mobile app

Every stock in the KRE is down on the day. “Secure and resilient”

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Originally Posted by Buzzworthy

Question for y’all, say I’ve got a bit of money in a college fund, that’s tied to stock performance, distributed into 4-5 funds in Vanguard. I can pull money into “cash” and keep it safe from market fluctuations under the account without penalty so it’s no longer tied to the market. If this makes any sense to you, would I be smart to move some of it into that safe area called “cash”?
At any time I can always roll it back into the funds tied to market performance.

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How many years until college starts? At the very least, find a money market or short bond fund offering 4+%, not cash.

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Originally Posted by Buzzworthy

Question for y’all, say I’ve got a bit of money in a college fund, that’s tied to stock performance, distributed into 4-5 funds in Vanguard. I can pull money into “cash” and keep it safe from market fluctuations under the account without penalty so it’s no longer tied to the market. If this makes any sense to you, would I be smart to move some of it into that safe area called “cash”?
At any time I can always roll it back into the funds tied to market performance.

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When do you need the money and what % are you up as of now? In general I would suggest just be in a position to hold but buy if there is a big market slump. But I also would plan to not be in position to be forced to sell stocks because need the funds. But if your kid starts school next fall, might be a good time to sell stocks and buy 6 month t-bill

Yep she starts next fall. I did sell a few thousand recently to put into cash reserves as deposits have and are happening now so I can use as needed.
The rest of the chunk is tied to stocks I’m getting dividends on. It’s been an 18 year build up as we started this account the year she was born. Now I just don’t want to lose some as the market gets weird again. So I’m thinking of pulling another 5-10k out of stock funds into the “cash reserves” fund so it’s safe from market fluctuation. I won’t make any dividend money on it but I also won’t lose it.

Buzz- VUSXX is a vanguard treasury money market fund that will yield 4.95% after yesterday's rate hikes.

It has never lost value in it's history, but I don't think anyone knows what will happen to treasury money market funds if the government defaults.

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Originally Posted by Buzzworthy

Yep she starts next fall. I did sell a few thousand recently to put into cash reserves as deposits have and are happening now so I can use as needed.
The rest of the chunk is tied to stocks I’m getting dividends on. It’s been an 18 year build up as we started this account the year she was born. Now I just don’t want to lose some as the market gets weird again. So I’m thinking of pulling another 5-10k out of stock funds into the “cash reserves” fund so it’s safe from market fluctuation. I won’t make any dividend money on it but I also won’t lose it.

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(Glass half full)
Money market fund. Depending on your broker, vanguard has one if you’re in Vgrd now just move it there. They’re paying 4-5%. That’ll go down over the next 6 months as Fed pauses and eventually cuts but great spot for it.

(Glass half empty)
Of course inflation is still over 5% and college related inflation WELL over that, so you’re fucked anyway!

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Originally Posted by Buzzworthy

Yep she starts next fall. I did sell a few thousand recently to put into cash reserves as deposits have and are happening now so I can use as needed.
The rest of the chunk is tied to stocks I’m getting dividends on. It’s been an 18 year build up as we started this account the year she was born. Now I just don’t want to lose some as the market gets weird again. So I’m thinking of pulling another 5-10k out of stock funds into the “cash reserves” fund so it’s safe from market fluctuation. I won’t make any dividend money on it but I also won’t lose it.

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If you have enough for tuition now, and dont NEED the account to continue to grow, you just need it to not lose value, AND you are able to keep contributing... i would suggest chucking a whole bunch into laddered CDs.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

(Glass half full)
Money market fund. Depending on your broker, vanguard has one if you’re in Vgrd now just move it there. They’re paying 4-5%. That’ll go down over the next 6 months as Fed pauses and eventually cuts but great spot for it.

(Glass half empty)
Of course inflation is still over 5% and college related inflation WELL over that, so you’re fucked anyway!

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(Awesomist)
HOOKERS AND BLOW!!

Attachment 458048

Starting next fall, and given today's good safe rates, I'd be 100% in short bonds/MM funds. Unless maybe you think you have more in the account than she will use for school, then consider investing the remainder in stocks.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Buzz- VUSXX is a vanguard treasury money market fund that will yield 4.95% after yesterday's rate hikes.

It has never lost value in its history, but I don't think anyone knows what will happen to treasury money market funds if the government defaults.

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Always good to learn more here, thanks for this info.

I’ve got money in VDIGX, VMVAX, VQNPX, VTSAX and VMRXX (cash reserves). My dad had these set up previously as he’s been contributing as well.

Admittedly I’m new to these funds and how they work.

If you’re not getting at least 4.5% in whatever short term/money market fund, check if there’s something slightly different.

FYI CD’s aren’t paying what MM are

Yeah looks like I need to put in more time to research exactly what I’m getting vs what may be better. Appreciate the collective as always!

Had damodaran speak at a conference earlier and he took a giant shit on the entire ESG market. It was beautiful.

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Originally Posted by Buzzworthy

Always good to learn more here, thanks for this info.

I’ve got money in VDIGX, VMVAX, VQNPX, VTSAX and VMRXX (cash reserves). My dad had these set up previously as he’s been contributing as well.

Admittedly I’m new to these funds and how they work.

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VMRXX is really similar to VUSXX. I believe that there might be some small state tax advantage to VUSXX, but that likely doesn't have an affect if the money in question is in a 529 plan.

If you are looking for shelter from volatility you could move money out of the equities index funds that you are currently invested in into VMRXX.

Worth mentioning that just like VUSXX, there could be a theoretical loss of value in VMRXX if the government defaults.

I truly don't know of a safe haven in that scenario. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

Thanks Kevo. For the time being I am going to move a bit to VMRXX. Just to be on the safer side during this time. Down the road I’ll move some back into equities.

She will not need it all in undergrad with the scholarships she has obtained. Which is fantastic news as she plans to go to med school.

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Originally Posted by Buzzworthy

Thanks Kevo. For the time being I am going to move a bit to VMRXX. Just to be on the safer side during this time. Down the road I’ll move some back into equities.

She will not need it all in undergrad with the scholarships she has obtained. Which is fantastic news as she plans to go to med school.

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So keep in mind that the horizon for using these funds may not be "short-term" - you may want to factor that into the decision-making...

FWIW, our kids 529 plan *automatically* moved invested funds from higher risk to lower risk options the closer they got to starting college.

Vanguard target date funds seem to be pretty well driven by data, so you could do worse than just checking what the asset allocation of their 529 funds for you college start date is and copying their strategy.

https://investor.vanguard.com/accoun...ent-portfolios

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Vanguard target date funds seem to be pretty well driven by data, so you could do worse than just checking what the asset allocation of their 529 funds for you college start date is and copying their strategy.

https://investor.vanguard.com/accoun...ent-portfolios

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Or just put it all in the relevant target retirement fund and skip the extra step? My daughter's fund is in a vanguard target fund. Total set it and forget it option.