Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Bmc. You don’t need midstream for income anymore. Just something to think about.

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I know, I’ve branched out into reits, materials and even cigarettes.

Here’s what I’m currently holding.

Attachment 438600

I feel a lot worse than originally about a couple of those, but most are pretty safe dividends/distributions. I’d be genuinely interested in any others you’d suggest.

Today was a market down day I’ve saved cash for, I picked up two shares of AMZN at $87 and two shares of AAPL at $134. Had another order to try to steal GOOGl at $83 but it didn’t even come close.

I sold puts on ET and EPD today…. A weekly on ET with a strike of $11.50 on Dec 23 for .18 and a Jan 20 put on EPD with a strike of $22 for .15. Neither are going to make me rich, but I think it’s more about the incremental game. I’d be happy to be assigned on either play, 100 shares of EPD at $21.85, count me in!

I’m going to keep storing a bit of cash using it to sell cash secured positions and buying stuff on any downturns. Wish me luck, heh.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

this

I gave my year end 2023 guesstimates on weds…fed funds 3.5, IG spreads 168, 2-10 -110.

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Here is mine.

2yr above 7% and the rest also higher than they are today by a bunch by this time next year..

Attachment 439130

Grabbed 4 shares of AAPL at $133, 2 shares of AMZN at $86 and then 2 more shares of AMZN at $85. Seen some bearish takes of AMZN going to the low 70’s, will buy all the way down. Every time they go down another dollar I’ll be a buyer. Same with AAPL and GOOGL. I’m up to 42 shares of GOOGL, 30.133 shares of AAPL, and 26 shares of AMZN.

Bought back my ET put for .02, under .05 I don’t pay any transaction fees with TDA. Still riding my EPD put, I’ll let that either be assigned or get the whole $14.34. Sold a Jul 23 MRO call with a strike of $25 for $589.33 (after fees) at opener this morning, bought it back for $557.66 thirty minutes later. I dig making $31.67 as I drive to work. Aka, several free lunches.

Hadn’t looked at any of Aunt Cathie’s funds in a while, perused them today, holy shit, she’s been rekt.

I bought TSLA today right when it hit $136 It immediately went up 2% and of course back down a bit, but I think this could be a great short term gain.

When Bezos, Cook, and Pichai start acting like fools I’ll probably stop buying their company’s stock. There is no way I’d touch that TSLA shit right now. AMZN, AAPL, and GOOGL are down because of economic and market conditions. TSLA is going down because the dude in charge seems fixated on political shit rather than business and is being exposed as not real good at running a social media site.

Those 4 companies have different revenue drivers, growth trajectories, all that. Different places in terms of maturities. But right now aside from fundamental differences and how the economy/market impacts those…higher rates crush growth companies, especially high growth companies. The rate future growth/cash is discounted at is higher.

I maybe wouldn’t touch Tesla because I think the threat from other car companies in EV land is very very real.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

I maybe wouldn’t touch Tesla because I think the threat from other car companies in EV land is very very real.

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I’ve been buying PSNY and F because of this very reason. I find it hard to believe Tesla will continue to dominate the EV market. The established players in the automotive industry haven’t been there for a hundred years because they lack the ability to innovate. They may move more slowly than Tesla but they will catch up and be able to scale up more quickly.

Tesla is now giving incentives to take delivery on cars by year end. $7500 discount. Not a great sign when your share price assumes X growth rate aside from any discount rate/interest rate impact on the valuation.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Tesla is now giving incentives to take delivery on cars by year end. $7500 discount. Not a great sign when your share price assumes X growth rate aside from any discount rate/interest rate impact on the valuation.

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You sure that has 0 to do with the $7500 EV rebate that starts Jan 1 2023?


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Tesla has twice the P/E as Apple. The only scenario where that makes sense is if self driving capabilities are fully realized. I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. For what it's worth, Tesla is finally generating a lot of free crash flow so it's a little ironic the stock is falling now instead of anytime in the past.

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Originally Posted by nickwm21

You sure that has 0 to do with the $7500 EV rebate that starts Jan 1 2023?


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Yep, separate. Tesla is doing this- not a tax credit or anything this year or next.

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Tesla has twice the P/E as Apple. The only scenario where that makes sense is if self driving capabilities are fully realized. I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. For what it's worth, Tesla is finally generating a lot of free crash flow so it's a little ironic the stock is falling now instead of anytime in the past.

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Apples and oranges. The higher a company’s revenue growth rate, the less earnings or value-centric valuation methods matter.

Apple is huge and growing sub-10% pa (excluding 2020/2021 reporting). Sweet. Nice company. Strong, margins in the upper 30s to 41%. Stable.

Tesla is growing revenue over 50% pa. Lower margins but that’s the business they’re in, still in the mid 20%s. It’s not a grocery store.

So P/E may be a bit more suitable for apple and not really for Tesla. Someday maybe Tesla will turn all the cash they are producing into earnings (maybe) but for now they are using it to drive growth. And their earnings are growing too. By the time someone solely using a simple P/E multiple finds Tesla attractive, it’s not growing nearly as fast and the hyper growth trajectory has slowed.

For Tesla things like market share, total addressable market, margin opportunity, revenue growth are better indicators than anything putting earnings in the denominator. Earnings don’t matter as much for companies growing 50+% yoy.

Sure, Tesla looks much more like a growth stock than Apple but trees don't grow to the sky forever so the question is whether the trend will continue. The posts above seem to indicate that might not be the case. Buying stocks at high double-digit revenue multiples in this environment is risky business.

Yeah I wouldn’t buy Tesla. I don’t know a ton about it and wouldn’t make a bet either way. But it has 0 to do with P/E comparisons (it has to do with concerns over their market share).

When the growth starts to slow- it doesn’t grow to the sky forever, the P/E will come down and earnings may actually look good. That’s when a strict P/E investor would hop in. Because it’s cheap. That’s where apple is.

The main point with the P/E comparison is to illustrate that in spite of the fall in price, -60% YTD, Tesla stock is still expensive. Even at the current price its valuation is still a growth proposition. Yes, it's a growth stock, but there's still room for a big haircut. If the growth story cools and Tesla stock is valued more on fundamentals like its rivals, shares would be closer to $20.

My point is using P/E to value high growth companies is useless. You might as well use a ruler to measure Tesla. Wrong tool.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Yep, separate. Tesla is doing this- not a tax credit or anything this year or next.

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…. Let me rephrase…. I assume Tesla has to offer $7500 to take delivery now because a bunch of people are are saying “Sorry, I can’t take delivery now” because they want to wait a few weeks and get the $7500 fed rebate…..


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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Tesla has twice the P/E as Apple. The only scenario where that makes sense is if self driving capabilities are fully realized. I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. For what it's worth, Tesla is finally generating a lot of free crash flow so it's a little ironic the stock is falling now instead of anytime in the past.

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Considering the safety record I can’t imagine a regulatory environment that will allow it.

I fucking dumped TSLA already early this morning. Glad I did. Only lost $20..... then it tanked 9% after that.

Fuck Elon Musk.

Stack ranking making a comeback. You’ll get nothing…and like it:

“More Google employees will be at risk for low performance ratings and fewer are expected to reach high marks under a new performance review system that starts next year, according to internal communications obtained by CNBC.”

Nat gas down 20% in a week.

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Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

I bought TSLA today right when it hit $136 It immediately went up 2% and of course back down a bit, but I think this could be a great short term gain.

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Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

I fucking dumped TSLA already early this morning. Glad I did. Only lost $20..... then it tanked 9% after that.

Fuck Elon Musk.

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U got REKT. Vibes.


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So today…solid solid economic news (I’m not a believer but economy is good for now). This means the market will price in a higher chance the Fed is able/willing to continue hiking rates (if need be) either harder (higher magnitude than was priced in) or longer/further out. Makes sense…the economic news isnt keeping them from fighting inflation.

This hits growth stocks particularly hard, and most tech stocks are “growth” to some degree. And it hits higher growth % stocks particularly hard (whether tech or discretionary or whatever). See: Tesla. Plus all the demand questions due to the rebate. Why do they need to offer the 7500??

All of Cathie Woods stuff by nature is high growth. Dennis Lynch at Morgan Stanley same thing. That’s how they do it (similar to private equity). Doesn’t work well in certain environments. Their objective is to buy intuitive surgical in 2013, Amazon in 2006, apple in 2005, etc. those companies had negative earnings.

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Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

I bought TSLA today right when it hit $136 It immediately went up 2% and of course back down a bit, but I think this could be a great short term gain.

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I was thinking of shorting it for sub $100.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

I was thinking of shorting it for sub $100.

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that’s $1500 when he was taking it private at $420