Sounds familiar...Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
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Sounds familiar...Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Pretty much. Gilts and sterling fell apart, BoE is doing what they can I guessQuote:
Originally Posted by up an down
TSM falling apart nicely.
Hoping for 60!
On the topic of federal banks...I haven't seen any headlines the us fed is reduced balance sheet? Thought that was part of the plan? Graph on their website suggest balance is about same as start of year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
Attachment 428042
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...centtrends.htm
Right, not really a reduction. The million million scale is "funny". Seems like an actual reduction will cause something major.
Shall we set up a pool for how low the Fed's balance sheet drops before it halts the QT program? I'll go with $5.5T.
On the ground, I think it mostly means a big buyer of bonds has stopped buying, but the breadth of opinions on the effects of QT is impressive. That may be offset by the fact that the current govt doesn't need to raise as much $$$ and other countries may buy treasuries for the safe haven they provide (not to mention large institutions). The big QT attempt in 2018 didn't go so well, but they supposedly have tinkered with the gears to avoid repeating that problem. Regardless, the past few months (and weeks) in the US treasury markets have been insane. I look forward to the post-mortem review.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
I guess the level isn’t down much, but there’s a clear change in direction.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
I think any change in policy occurring too rapidly would ‘cause something major’.
Statement on their plan for anyone who wants to try and parse it:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20220504b.htm
Wow...Much faith parked in suits with degrees with 0 real world experience. Currency movements and understanding is beyond most, even in the CB's and biggest money managers around the world. Best of luck. Some of you are going to be slaughtered.
Just wait until the Govy bond market goes no bid and rates go up in effort to attract buyers. The game is over for Government Bonds and the party is only just starting. Govies have run out of other peoples money and they have no plans to stop spending...Now comes the lies, excuses, and passing of blame.
TV/ Traditional Media will not help you here and many of the whack job Gold Bugs will not either. Welcome to the grind. The European banking system is going to go down in a ball of fire and that is why the FED has had to step into the reverse Repo market. No US bank wants to touch any overseas paper and the only thing holding the Global system together is the US Federal Reserve. They have embarked though on a path that will lead to Emerging Market Brimstone.
NATO is building bases in Romania and preparing for 4-5 years of conflict. WW3 will blow many of your thinking's right out of the water. I do understand you are only able to forecast what you know and believe to be true. It is what you do not know that worries me.
https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-battleg.../32044735.html - Added this for the source of my claim
Nostradamus post preservation serviceQuote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
<ahem>Quote:
Originally Posted by ::: :::
NostraDUMBASS, please.
:D
Who are the biggest buyers of Bonds?
-Pension Funds
-Insurance Companies
-Banks
What happens when you lower rates to negative and then in the future you increase rates? What happens to the price of all of those bonds issued at low or negative rates? Balance Sheet Adjustment = Black Hole
It really is not that hard to understand. Although the CBdicks obviously had no long term thinking capabilities or maybe the plan was to blow up the whole thing?
You use a lot of rhetorical questions
Attachment 428053
BOOM!
Pension funds and insurance co’s will have lower liabilities with higher rates. That’s the balance sheet adjustment. It’s 7th grade math. Not a black hole.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
And they can just buy more. This isn’t the first time rates have gone up. And not the first time the fed raised rates.
Remember the carnage and zombiepocalypse back in the 80s when Volcker was hiking 2% a clip?
Me neither.
Fed using their balance sheet to facilitate/broker both repo and reverse repo. Not Armageddon. It actually safeguards against short term armageddons (sept 2019).Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
Rest of the world will buy US Govy bonds.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
China selling dollars to prop up their commie fiat currency.
GBP is not so great. Time for a Euro trip, as long as the next COVID variant isn't spreading like wildfire and killing hundreds of thousands daily.
Buy big pharma.
Or build a nuke bunker. Or both...
Should I sell?
I cant believe none of these people have blown out. I’m not a bond trader, but these are massive moves in the one of the biggest most liquid mkts in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
A blind person could see it coming, but there’s always some genius who strapped it on and takes everyone down with him.
Who the pensions? Insurance co’s?
Their liabilities decreased as much (at worst) as their bonds have.
No, I’m thinking a big hedge fund, like a long term Capitol explosion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Some of these “geniuses” literally just strap on a giant spread, in bonds I’d imagine they short the yield curve, and they just keep adding to it as it goes against them, and they never put the brakes on, then one day boom! Force to unwind a trillion dollars in futures at the worst possible time for everyone.
Some of the biggest trades I’ve ever heard of, put on by these “geniuses”, that blow up, would get you fired instantly at any place that has any legitimate risk management in place.