Is the stock market going to tank?

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

10-14-2022, 11:00 PM
NakedShorts

1 Attachment(s)

Attachment 429998
10-16-2022, 03:36 PM
4matic

Last week, retail traders bought $19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only $6.5 billion in calls to open.

This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls.
10-16-2022, 07:28 PM
Cono Este

Vix was down on week.
10-17-2022, 10:46 AM
liv2ski

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

Last week, retail traders bought $19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only $6.5 billion in calls to open.

This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls.

Hopefully the puts know what they are doing.
10-17-2022, 11:38 AM
4matic

Monthly expiration this week. I’d put resistance around 2750. Easy with a little help from rates and the dollar
10-17-2022, 12:06 PM
summit

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

Monthly expiration this week. I’d put resistance around 2750. Easy with a little help from rates and the dollar

2750 for what? SPX?
10-17-2022, 12:10 PM
Brock Landers

Is the stock market going to tank?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobMc

I have an eight year timeline. I’m not going to sit on the sidelines nor try to catch a falling knife. I put money in as I get it. Generally I put it into things I already own, things I’ve already researched and still feel confident about. Although, I have taken a few new positions lately, notably F and ARCC.

Sold a $30 strike, Jan 20 call on MRO for $240 today. I’m in it $5.73/share, if crude falls hopefully I can buy it back and take the easy cash. Even if crude soars and I’m assigned I’ll be ok with the 465% increase in less than two and a half years. It only yields 1.1% so I’ve wanted out of it for a while, I could be wrong but I think I’ve milked most of the share price growth out. I’d rather move that $3200 into something yielding higher.

I own a bit of MRO, love the company and it’s cash generation. Lower yielding but good buyback game. Will also get acquired in the next 2 years.

That said, growth continues to get hit, sp500 down to 3000/3200, recession next year, buy longer duration bonds and HY while we wait for 3k/3200. 12% yield is a nice number!!!
10-17-2022, 12:27 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by summit

2750 for what? SPX?

3750. Yeah
10-17-2022, 12:40 PM
4matic

Nat gas getting crushed. Still has a long way down.
10-17-2022, 03:08 PM
406

^^^really don't understand that, US can't figure out how to export to EU? We should also be running more vehicles in Nat gas...but I guess that is dead too.

26 week Treasury Bill Auction Results
High Rate: 4.245%
Investment Rate*: 4.398%

Would be nice if my credit union would catch up so I didn't have to use TD.
10-17-2022, 03:35 PM
4matic

Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe's coasts unable to unload

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ad-2022-10-17/
10-17-2022, 03:39 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by 406

^^^really don't understand that, US can't figure out how to export to EU? We should also be running more vehicles in Nat gas...but I guess that is dead too.

26 week Treasury Bill Auction Results
High Rate: 4.245%
Investment Rate*: 4.398%

Would be nice if my credit union would catch up so I didn't have to use TD.

MC bank stocks are a buy. Monahan said they were crushing the savings spread.
10-17-2022, 04:30 PM
LongShortLong

Is there a Winnie the Pooh thread? I'm hearing he won't tell us how much honey is in the honey pot.

Surely that means less than 5% growth.
10-17-2022, 04:40 PM
MultiVerse

Xi is a master of Chinese Communist Party infighting & power struggles, a mediocrity with everything else. Chinese dynamism of the 90s, 00s, & 10s is no more, it has been subsumed by one man's policy failures.
10-17-2022, 06:53 PM
BobMc

Got a fair chunk of cash over the weekend. Was hoping to go on a buying spree today, gonna wait for a big down day. Futures creeping up this evening, tomorrow is setting up to be another move upwards.
10-17-2022, 08:55 PM
rod9301

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobMc

Got a fair chunk of cash over the weekend. Was hoping to go on a buying spree today, gonna wait for a big down day. Futures creeping up this evening, tomorrow is setting up to be another move upwards.

I would wait a few months

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
10-18-2022, 06:45 AM
whitekingsalmon

Go spy go
10-18-2022, 07:56 AM
byates1

Anyone take physical delivery of 10000 lbs of Alaskan king crab last year and flash freeze it? Me neither...
10-18-2022, 08:18 AM
summit

Quote:

Originally Posted by byates1

Anyone take physical delivery of 10000 lbs of Alaskan king crab last year and flash freeze it? Me neither...

?
10-18-2022, 09:30 AM
JimmyCarter

Quote:

Originally Posted by summit

?

King crab season cancelled because a billion crabs went missing. Not sure why that’s in here though?
10-18-2022, 09:33 AM
dunfree

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

King crab season cancelled because a billion crabs went missing. Not sure why that’s in here though?

you don’t use crab in your seafood stock? You should.
10-18-2022, 09:44 AM
JimmyCarter

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunfree

you don’t use crab in your seafood stock? You should.

You sonofabitch…
10-18-2022, 09:54 AM
4matic

Energy commodities hammered again
10-18-2022, 10:42 AM
skaredshtles

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunfree

you don’t use crab in your seafood stock? You should.

I laffed.
10-18-2022, 11:13 AM
Toadman

King crab have become self aware.

I'm not sure what's driving the markets higher? Maybe the good old pump and dump scam by WS?
10-18-2022, 11:38 AM
SumJongGuy

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toadman

King crab have become self aware.

I'm not sure what's driving the markets higher? Maybe the good old pump and dump scam by WS?

Attachment 430394
10-18-2022, 01:51 PM
Toadman

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

Attachment 430394

Well, now at least we have stone cold hard evidence of what is driving the market higher.
10-18-2022, 02:34 PM
4matic

Is the stock market going to tank?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toadman

Well, now at least we have stone cold hard evidence of what is driving the market higher.

Lower energy commodities is biggest driver for now. NG looks 50% lower on the chart. Crude oil another $30 lower

The key is another leg down in gasoline. It has led the way higher and lower recently
10-18-2022, 02:52 PM
4matic

Euro NG price down 60% plus. Lower than it was 12 months ago:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
10-18-2022, 04:14 PM
gravitylover

They need to figure out how to process more LNG. I read an article this morning that was saying there are at least 3 dozen LNG boats sitting offshore waiting to dock because they don't have the regasification capacity to process all the LNG the world has sent. Spain has the most capacity and they only have 4 plants but have 22 boats waiting to unload.
10-18-2022, 04:17 PM
Master of Energy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toadman

I'm not sure what's driving the markets higher?

earnings. And the fed may have threaded the needle.
10-19-2022, 03:20 PM
4matic

Of >400 listings where companies raised at least $100 million between 2019 and 2021, 76% are now below their IPO price and median return since IPO date is -44%
10-19-2022, 07:11 PM
Kevo

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

Of >400 listings where companies raised at least $100 million between 2019 and 2021, 76% are now below their IPO price and median return since IPO date is -44%

Word is that there a lot of late stage private companies that are running out of money and can't IPO without major carnage. They also can't re-raise in private markets either without taking a major down round or because there is just no VC money left.
10-19-2022, 07:54 PM
BobMc

I ended up buying back both of my calls on XOM and MRO, made $31 apiece from them. Sold another call on MRO today, got $3.85 for an April 21, $30 strike, it rose a bit today and put me underwater by fifteen bucks, I’ve got plenty of time to buy it back on a swoon day. Sold a put on SOFI for $.46, $5 strike for Nov 4th. They report earnings on the 1st, I’m betting on a beat and I get to keep the money. Worst case scenario I’m in another 100 shares at $4.54, which I’m ok with.

It’s nice having cash around to be able to play conservative options. I like the idea of bringing in another couple hundred a month for free, supplement my contributions and keep growing that pile. Meanwhile it lets me keep my recent cash infusion liquid in case of a crash.
10-19-2022, 10:33 PM
Cono Este

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr
10-20-2022, 07:21 AM
huckbucket

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

So a high-risk strategy failed. In other news, water is wet and the Pope is (or use to be) Polish.
10-20-2022, 07:57 AM
ötzi

Omg
10-20-2022, 08:12 AM
MCS5280

"Most qualified buyers in history" sang the mortgage brokers.
"This time is actually different" sang the dirtpimps.
10-20-2022, 08:39 AM
fastfred

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevo

Word is that there a lot of late stage private companies that are running out of money and can't IPO without major carnage. They also can't re-raise in private markets either without taking a major down round or because there is just no VC money left.

this is the nail in the coffin
free cheap easy money
companies that produce absolutely nothing and create services by passing the buck and not really creating anything but adding a middle man to the chain
when the debt comes due interest rates are through the roof and they can't pay
at least I can hire all these tech workers without a job to dig ditches

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

yeah I really believe that anytime anything comes out of a realtors mouth I know it's absolute bullshit my dog is smarter than a realtor
10-20-2022, 10:51 AM
Kevo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Omg, I’m home in the Bay Area staying with a realtor friend and she says this mkt is at a stand still. People who bought 10mm homes on loans against stock already up shit creek and taking out home equity loans to make the payments.

Timberrrrrr

That's horrible. When is a government program going to be announced to backstop the homeowners' risk taking behavior? No one should forced to endure the consequences of their actions. No one who buys an asset should EVER see their asset prices go down. Anything is better than depreciation!

We could call the program the "Equity Protection Program" or something. Home prices and stock prices shouldn't fall.

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page