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Californiagrown
I am just a dumb tracer, that’s why I asked for stock ideas. Not an analyst, not an economist, I care about the $$$
Our economy is about to be re routed. We will all be affected. Our portfolios, our jobs, everything. I throw the idea out there not to support it, but for stock ideas.
But, Larry, Curly, and Moe don’t want it to happen. They cant control it, so they key teslas, stalk cono. Don’t know, but they are t helping anyone’s portfolio.
^^^ you put forth a very abbreviated, paraphrase of something you read, written by a smart bigwig. It didnt make sense to most of us, so we asked incredulous questions. Please provide a better summary of what the bigwig said, and what you think the implications might be to the economy/stonks and why you think that is the expected outcome. I am certainly not above listening to someone smarter and more experienced than I... even if i then wad up their suggestions and dismiss it later if it doesnt pass my smell test. Maybe im wrong and in 2 years i remember what bigwig-by-cono said i can then jump on that pattern.
Californiagrown. I can't speak to or even attempt to translate what Cono said. I can pass on what the consensus is from people I know who manage money with the caveat that I no longer am in the industry so am on the peripherary. This is more at the operational level with rest of world (ROW) companies I know whether in tech, hard goods, commodities, intermediate manufacturing, primary manufacturing, services
- Uncertainty is the dominant feature. Fiscal and trade policy changes by the day whether source is US or affected by US
- Long term capital expenditures are on hold. Whether Euro, Canadian, South East Asian etc. there is too much uncertainty. And due to that uncertainty not being predictable it either cannot be hedged or is too expensive to hedge. I can give examples on commodity trading fronts but it's too much typing for now. This can't go on forever of course as long term capex is a given but who knows when it will resume
- Short term operations and capex still ongoing but parties are now negotiating out clauses based on foreign policy changes
- Rest of World (ROW) parties are putting plans into place to diversify away from dependence on US sources or somehow reducing exposure to US. This is not unprecedented. ROW already went through this with respect to Russian products and services. However, because US has bigger exposure it is more difficult. Not impossible; but more difficult.
- ROW seem to be more open to considering all options despite the cost of transitioning from US markets. Trade with China, India, EMEA, APAC regions. Talk is cheap but this is now occurring at board and executive levels.
All these posts will be garbled due to forums being garbage but professional MANAGERS (as opposed to real-world companies) are doing this:
- taking short biases as hedges against long US porfolios
- taking advantage of market bounces to take long US profits
- long volatility.
- long Rest of World particularly European stocks to the point that it's getting a bit silly and a crowded trade
- neutral on "bigger" crypto (BTC, ETC). Short on alt-coins
- neutral to mildly positive on industries that one had previously thought would get the "Trump Bump" ie defence, private law enforcement, agriculture etc.
Thank you! Much appreciated! some good nugs of advice and observations that i am also seeing in my day job.
As far as policy, what are your stumbling to understand Lee Lau? The election was in November,, tariffs, etc. the writing is on the wall. I said nothing new.
Some companies will win, some will lose. You seem to paint the picture that all will lose. With respect, you’re angry too,
I meant that you were perfectly able to speak for yourself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
On balance, more will lose than win. Specific niche companies in specific industries will win.
Trades that like volatility will win
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Tariffs in the past were typically pushed by industry lobbyists as carve-outs to erect protective barriers for companies that can't compete internationally. Trump admin tariff policy is different: it's almost entirely ideological and therefore dangerous. Dangerous because it's economically destructive. Economic policy is being run by people who are ideologically pro-tariff but don't understand how tariffs work. These Trump tariff people are the right's equivalent of the MMT crackpots on the left who infected the Biden admin.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Picking winners from economic wreckage is a fool’s errand. The big bet is whether these nutcases will abandon their see-saw tariff policies or continue to whipsaw the American economy with their dumb and dumber Smoot-Hawley throwback routine
As long as there is someone available to interpret bullshit.Quote:
I meant that you were perfectly able to speak for yourself.
Lee
I’m long vix, I expect a sell off, when it does, picking winners in what could be a generational change in economic policy will worth thinking about ahead of time. Or, just as important in identifying those stocks if it’s a,disaster.
I think the vol will come.
what are you using to be long VIX?
I see how the EPA and regulation has been and continues to be decimated by MAGA. This can go either way- polluting projects face little opposition, or projects in general stall out because there is a skeleton crew left to review the projects and code/policy interpretation and guidance is unclear. I also see the turn inwards towards american production of materials. I am betting that bumfuck oregon/idaho will be producing big amounts of lithium in the next 5 years, possibly even propped up by a MAGA government the way Xhina props up BYD and other companies. Seems like a decent wager, with a potentially LARGE payoff that could hit even if the economy stagnates in general. So i have a chunk stuffed into LAC in my yolo account.
I don’t pay attention to the Econ stuff. My time horizon is shorter. i look at volume, value of straddles vs vix. For example, if you trust the mkt to price things correctly, look at the front month, at the money straddle, says it’s 6 bucks. It’s usually right. You’re gonna see that’s range, and you know where to put orders. Im actually a terrible long term investor.
We thinking the same, shits gonna change, (not saying it’s a good change) sort of like the oil, boom we all missed out on up north 10 or 15 yrsago. Should have gone up there with a suitcase full of cash. We could see a new deal type initiative, infrastructure etc. construction companies. (Could all fail, for the purpose of this thread, don’t care)
some will win, some will lose.
UVIX is a 2x long etf but decays (ie all things being equal drops in price) due to the nature of the futures contracts it buys to track the 2x VIX correlation. Therefore suited only for short term trades.
Or just buy VIX calls. Requires permission to trade options
I realized recently it would be interesting to sell covered calls on my puts. I assume that's not an option for individual chump change investors.
I don’t recommend any retail investors mess with options too much unless your selling covered calls. The only puts i short these days are in stocks I’d buy down there anyway. Warren style, he used short coke 10-15% lower.
JEPI is a good buy write fund, good income. Just realize a covered call write, is the exact same thing as shorting a put “synthetically”.
To explain options further. All the options traded on an issue, think of it like a puzzle. All the pieces must fit. But based on supply and demand, some pieces get bigger than they should, some get smaller than they should. A pro will short one, buy the other, hedge with stock. The pieces can move, based on individual supply and demand, the stock doesn’t have to move. I.e. changes in implied vol. which is why you can buy fat calls, only to sell them for the same price after earnings, even with the stock up, for the same price. There is more going than the naked eye sees.
Nothing but emojis
It better, my vixm, and vxx is burning a hole in my pocket and I need to buy a sprinter van half off this summer.
Hey Cono, thanks for the feedback re: options. I am playing it very safe, selling conservative covered calls at strike prices I'd be happy to sell at. I did buy a few puts just for fun, but only spent a little mad money on it. They have a long expiration date - July - and I was just wondering if there's a way to monetize them while they're sitting around gathering dust.
Have a little cash on the sidelines, which may not be a terrible strategy now, but looking for near term or mid term plays. Everything goes to hell, so VIX or similar instruments, gold, or BTC, right?
GPDNow forecast for Q1 has been revised again. Now -3.7%.
40800 was closeQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Kevo, the *gold adjusted* number is supposed to be the more accurate one. Do not remember the exact details but something about gold imports having showing up immediately even though the effects will get reversed because of some sort of account timeline issue. Regardless, the GDP trajectory is steeply down:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
GDP now updated
"gold adjusted" reading is -1.4% GDP contraction this quarter saar https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
https://bsky.app/profile/sky.skymarc.../3llrcgfx2a224
Now let’s add huge taxes on consumer goods!
Stagflation here we come
Fkn forum. Third try
Dan pdx
I usually like time spreads. Sell summer, buy winter, general a good position. This yr may be different.
You can scalp the out if we drop.
You can sell an earlier month and time spread it, near same strike, keeps you delta neutral.
Sell an in the money out, gets you longish
Or, if you’re long stock like me, hold it for Armageddon, I’ll need to really get it to perform to make up for some of the losses.
The key is when the floor runs out of bullets, gets short vol, then the implied vol rises fast. The industry is balls long vol, probably. Which is what is stabilizing the mkt. mkt goes down, the pros buy stock all the way down. But as vol rises, they will jump to,sell it, and if it’s a real sell off, they’ll regret it. Fast.
lolQuote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
work is drying up fast around here
just waiting for the market to hit 35,000
let me add that people in the mtns are still bullish on the future
architects and engineers have stuff in the pipe line
till they get to me and I give em a price
all I hear is the same old bullshit from 2007/2008 we are in a wealthy area they aren't is effected deffected as normal people and normal markets
I'm like sure what the fuck are you talking about
this will be my 3rd downturn thankfully I'm pulling the plug this summer as planned no need to ride anything out with the suckers
only 3 I hope you are setup for the next downturn so I was skiing with a calgary oil n gas permitting guy who told me he had been thru 6 so i asked if he was ready for it and he said OH YEAH !
Calgary has definitely had its share of booms and busts. Step bro lost his ass and home back in the day there.
Anyone have any insight into how the USD-CAD exchange rate will be affected by these impending tarrifs? Should i be spending like a drunken sailor on CAD lift tickets, lodging, cat trips etc. now, or wait till next winter?
If you dont do it this year, youll be another year older when you do.Quote:
Originally Posted by californiagrown
:fmicon:
Market forces in effect. If anyone absolutely knew what Forex rates are going to do, they'd be making millions, not posting here.
Who needs insight when you have speculation? When the US tips the global applecart, I think people will not flee to the safety of the USD. So my guess is the dollar weakens against other currencies
Bingo. WAGs are appreciated.Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_pdx
The good news is, the Trump admin is trying to liberate us from paying capital gains taxes
Oh boy - that will help. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
sign me up not interested in paying taxes on a million bucksQuote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Yessss! Orange did it! He actually did it and worse than expected. Long and strong SPXS and VIX
DOW futures at minus one thousand.
46% on Vietnam! that will be interesting for MTB prices.
Gap below the SPY cycle low will leave all dip buyers this year under water.
Could easily run away lower.