^^^Mad King is saying this is Biden's fault. Really not much to be positive about. In addition to the economic manipulation, US is more vulnerable than ever to terrorists, natural disaster, and/or pandemic.
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^^^Mad King is saying this is Biden's fault. Really not much to be positive about. In addition to the economic manipulation, US is more vulnerable than ever to terrorists, natural disaster, and/or pandemic.
I would love to know the answer to this questionQuote:
Originally Posted by neufox47
So donny caves and drops the embargo on China for no concession, eyeroll. I'm confused why market is so hot when there are still 10% and other tariffs?
Because there hasn't been any measurable damage... yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
Met with my FA yesterday. He thinks a recession is unavoidable at this point. A lot of his clients own northern businesses being crushed by lack of Canadian tourists. He thinks it could be short, 6-12 months if Trump doesn't keep shitting where we eat. But that's a big if.
Since Trump has capitulated and ONLY has 30% tariffs on chinese goods, the market mist go up, WAY up. There is no market driver stronger than the maybe removal of self induced damage!!! Market traders are in sum whackos. Irrational exuberance IS the market
Back in mid-late april i cashed out all of my underperforming stocks/gambles that were underperforming significantly over the past 6 months. I dumped a few grand more into my longterm flyer on LAC, and then dumped the rest of my cash reserves into some moneymarkets and bonds. Im about 20% cash/bonds right now and ive kind of decided to just sitout the market till at least Halloween (still making monthly deposits into this brokerage, just putting it into those moneymarket/bonds). Im glad i didnt pull anything significant out when the market tanked in early April, im almost back to early february levels... but i am just really not optomistic for the economy in general going forward, despite being pretty happy with the companies i do own currently. This is for my YOLO account. My robo-managed retirement etrade account is, and will remain on a set and forget strategy.
I sure hope my little girl is back to even again as being down $40K had her really pissed off.
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I hope you all accepted the current gift- that is UVIX. Unless of course you think Donna is capable of avoiding volatility and the economy is about to moon.
Took 65% of my realized gains from UVIX last month and doubled down on 5400 shares. Run it back, baby!
S&P 500 looks fairly valued at current future earnings expectations. I think for "the economy is about to moon" bet to payoff three conditions have to hold:
1 - The US economy must remain recession-resistant
2 - Markets have veto power over Donna's bad policy
3 - AI will enable a labor productivity boom
dubapp. Why not.
TSLA ripping!
Well, what a difference a month makes around here.
I say we tar feather the political clowns in here who fucked everyone up, posting nonsense, not putting their money where their mouths are.
You’re gonna tar and feather yourself? Is that like a fascist form of BDSM?
Whats the Buffet indicator at? 188% Who has a valuation metric that doesnt show the markets as overvalued?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Cono put his clown nose on. Trump revised his absurd tariff policy more than 50 times since inauguration day. Even with the site woes TGR was on it, making the correct call back in April, "every (bad) tariff theory is cooked. It's over." American government has become a laughingstock all over the world but our markets know Trump is all talk and bluster, that he'll always back down without getting anything substantive in return
the art of the squealQuote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
The Dow is up on the year. In a related note, im doing a calculation in my head of how much $$ i save if i sell everything, transfer all assets to a swiss/cayman bank account and then move to canada. Think that canada would actually extradite/cooperate with the IRS and american government over my tax evasion charges? Id be happy to pay full freight taxes up north, eh?
What are Swiss/Cayman banks paying these days on deposits?Quote:
Originally Posted by californiagrown
:fmicon:
The forum ate my post, but the point that I was trying to make was that even though markets have recovered back to where they were when Trump took office, the value of the dollar has dropped a lot against the other developed world currences.Quote:
Originally Posted by californiagrown
USD to CAD isn't so bad (because canada's got their own shit and is tied to the US), but Euros are now like 10% more expensive in the span of a couple of months.
So you got your portfolio value back, but that portfolio will buy you a whole lot less cool stuff from the rest of the world (which means even LESS stuff when that cool euro stuff gets imported and tariffed)
Put your reader glasses on grandpa. I put money where my mouth is and posted about it - UVIX - prior to 3X’n on a 52 day trade - for a quarter mil, realized. Liberation day, baby!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Just bought one hundred ten worth because for some reason the VIX has dropped way back down on the ‘concept of a deal’ with Chhiina. Maybe it won’t turn out as well this time, maybe it will. To me it’s house money.
Gehead and ride musk’s k-hole, mark.
Edit to add: i’m not really this much of an asshole, but I’ve had it with MAGA.
I'm thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? It would lock in some solid gains and avoid what is sure to be more roller coaster coming in the next year or 2...
I'm thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? Didn't Warren Buffet do that ^^ I think the time to do that was pre-trump ?
Normally what I do is completely wrong and I'm out of the market. So with that said you're probably better off staying invested.Quote:
Originally Posted by XXX-er
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that was climbereven I quoted ^^ I am not in the stock market cuz I am retired and so they just send me some checks every month
20 yaars ago I was done at IBM so I was high or drunk a lot when I sold my house at the peak to move here to the mtns to ski chase a woman, paddle, bike.
I missed an RE crash by a month then I forgot/ didnot know where to reinvest the money from that RE so I was in cash when the stock market crashed
so i looked like a fucking genius but it was all rather arbitrary I donot recommend everyone get wasted as an investment strategy but it worked for me
Buffett is about 25% cash now (actually, probably treasuries). My wife and I are about the same, but it's in laddered CDs. Not so much a well-thought-out strategy in our case as wanting a big emergency fund, we've always been a little too cash-heavyQuote:
Originally Posted by XXX-er
Currently holding little in the way of stocks, ETFs or MFs.
Unfortunately I took that position right around now last year so I missed a lot of upside. I also missed a lot of volatility and it has performed well enough that I am up around 8% over last year. Given that I will close my business at the end of 2026 and fully retire, I am OK with that and while I am always wrong, I see headwinds.
Climberevan, when do you need the money and would cashing out require pay taxes on profit? Im over a decade from 401k withdrawals and dont need my brokerage account anytime soon (hopefully), so Im staying in the market despite thinking good chance will be at about this level in 2035. Im about 35% treasuries/CDs.
Obviously you guys are too sober to do well in the market
I don't need the money anytime in the foreseeable future. I might need to pay a little tax on the gainz, but I still have some business deductions I can use to offset much of it. I'm already about 70% MM so we're only talking about 30% in VOO.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
This would just be a move to sit out what I expect to be another wild swing period after Cheeto forgets that the market doesn't like his zany ideas. I also see a longer-lasting correction coming when the market realizes that authoritarianism isn't good for economic growth....
I see your concerns and have only about fifteen percent at play on risky high reward plays. For one, they are contrary positions I believe in strongly and two it adds some excitement when you’re just conservatively trotting along getting mid fours.
What does everyone think about the US credit downgrade and the effects this wk and beyond?
Bessent doesn't give Moody's any credence...... Tomorrow will tell me much more.
Bessent stating that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE not caring about the Moody's downgrade is a weird vibe.
With U.S. energy production (which peaked under Biden) set to decline 10-20 percent this year, it appears Trump wants us back under the thumb of the Saudis.https://ir.diamondbackenergy.com/new...k-energy-inc-7
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Originally Posted by 406
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Yes dummy, you were behind the curve, by a few months. News means shit in the mkt. </p>
My magic 8ball says murky, so Im just staying with my typical allocation. It is cool seeing EU funds hitting 52wk highs. Wish I had cash to buy the April VOO dip or gold 8 months ago.Quote:
I'm already about 70% MM so we're only talking about 30% in VOO.
I agree VOO will likely remain volitile, but looks to me like good amount of the companies in VOO are kissing the ring and paying bribes, so might do fine. For example Apple making sure iphones not included in the China embargo. Small and mid size are going to have a hard time.
Im guessing dollar keeps tanking and treasury rates are going up. Also guessing inflation for things people actually need is going to go up, even if Fed thinks it not because rates for rental cars declined :eyeroll: If the gop tax bill passes and they up the debt limit going to be a major S&P sugar high.
Cleaned out an IRA w tax event to buy some land, then didn't buy land. So now have cake sitting in 4.5% stablecoin. Also bought BTC at 84 and yellow rocks.
Copy trading via dubapp. Up 15% in a week. "No risk no rari" is the portfolio title lol.
Would love to buy .5 BTC at 50ish but that ship has sailed probably.
So I'm heavy cash gold and BTC. Could be worse
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I did that during the first Trump term. Thing about it is, you have to accept that you cannot actually time the market and may very well end up losing money, and that the reason you are pulling out is for peace of mind and not because it is the correct investment strategy. I did lose money back then but I also slept better at night and have no regrets. This time around I am leaving my money in because the current and impending shitshow is just something I have learned to live with.</p>Quote:
Originally Posted by climberevan
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^I did well sensing an opportunity during covid. Kept powder dry and went in. Should have done more.</p>
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But I think it makes sense to always be investing. Keep a steady buy in, but vary between aggressive and selective. How much do I want to lock in or put at risk vs. taking a moderate safe return? It varies.</p>
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Unless you have a plan & objective tho, I don't see the long term results in cashing out completely and then ??</p>
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So -> steady buys regardless - long term minded & all that yields/compounds.</p>
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manuverable funds taking advantage of what the times present: equities? bonds & treasuries? What's your risk / need profile?</p>
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What I hate is actually this time around. There are no conventional boundaries because of King George and the cult. Stupid shit, self-defeating nonsense, landscape shifting disaster potential.</p>
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I believe in the market and the power of the economy, even when it's acting irrational. Time. I don't have faith in a market governed by an irrational monarch. I don't have the timeline for that correction.</p>
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Hoping for the best. You're long term health may be the best measure on how it works for you.</p>
Realizing I’m off on my investment participation. This is the problem with getting older and having accounts spread around. My comment of fifteen percent was tied to active RH and Schwab trading accounts. There’s another bucket tied into work four O one Ks and pension that I don’t manage. Those will essentially go untouched and DCA’d whether I like it or not. It kind of blends me better for any direction I suppose.
Still I see headwinds that apply to this Trump term vs last - which I’ll admit had me bearish back then. It’s good to hear other’s opinions who are rationally long.