My cost basis on PLTR is 11 and change. Bought late 2021/early 2022. 20 is good!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud
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My cost basis on PLTR is 11 and change. Bought late 2021/early 2022. 20 is good!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud
Lots of layoffs hitting. If it’s true HUD is laying off five thousand and gov laying off all current probationary hires.
it’s been a white collar slaughter for almost [emoji638] years now. this is a knife in the back
Thanks for the explanation as I was wondering WTF you were going on about. I know nothing about bond funds, but am looking for 5%+ safely guaranteed in this environment.
4matic: "That’s the return. Return plus YIELD is twelve percent.
I did the math and the combined YIELD of my mix is a little over eight percent
You don’t get high YIELD without risk. I know that.
You guys are confusing yield, return, and total return. Look it up.
Emoji hell makes it hard to talk about percentages"
Fixed annuity pays five percent plus now
Right, but what you're buying is the credit with of the issuerQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
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Same as any credit issue. Private or publicQuote:
Originally Posted by rod9301
It’s going to be 10’s of thousands based on what I’m reading.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Two hundred thousand probationary workers?
Potentially. Sometimes long term federal employees go into a probationary status when they move job series, switch agencies or become a supervisor. They are supposedly excluding certain public safety, national security, military support and cybersecurity positions.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
4matic: "Fixed annuity pays five percent plus now"
My wife has a couple of those and it appears there is a termination penalty forever. So not what I want. I had a bank account paying 5.25% in 2024, but now 4%.
Guarantee is a strong word. Corporate bonds are well into the fives with longer duration.
No such thing as 5% guaranteed right now. Short term treasuries are at about 4.3% and long term about 4.8%*. Anything yielding more than that is carrying some degree of default risk - the higher the yield, the higher the risk.
*be careful with the long durations, you will lose value if yields go up and you want to sell prior to duration/maturity. of course the downside to the short durations is that yields can decrease and you'll have to reinvest at lower rates (as you've experienced with no longer being able to find 5% savings accts).
That’s why I like HYS. Zero to five year short duration credit yielding almost seven and a half percent
What about these? Some strong/high distributions at this time. https://www.justetf.com/en/market-ov...ld-in-usd.html
Those are mostly world bonds. Sure, I think the dollar has likely made a high. But those are far from guaranteed. You have to dig in to credit quality, duration, country exposure, currency exposure.
I don’t get why you look at that junk list when you were looking for safety.
If you want guaranteed then go for guaranteed. Money market paying 4 and change.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
If you want risk…EMHC is a low cost exposure,solid yield, certainly risk but half the AUM is from highly rated issues (issue in dollars because that’s what oil is priced in). And it’ll move different than almost anything else you likely have in your account.
4matic: "I don’t get why you look at that junk list when you were looking for safety".
If I knew it all I would not ask questions. (rolls eyes)
It’s like saying I want a guarantee but what do you think about these pork belly futures..Quote:
Originally Posted by liv[emoji638
I found 4.75% and that will work.
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I also found a UK bank at 7% but uncertain I can open an account outside of the country. Yes, I have a UK passport.
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What’d you put it in at [emoji640].[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]. Seems like a nice yld. Have a plan if rates decrease (haha) if the new rate is sufficient (I’m assuming it’s a
Money market or something w little term).
If you COULD do the uk rate you’d lose % on the currency diff. Sleep easy.
Brock, I was thinking a good time to do the UK acct if possible, as a strong USD today and I am expecting it to weaken, as Drumps fuck up multiply?
First, I wouldn’t bet my “safe, guaranteed” return on currency and political fucking ups. Might as well just buy us high yield. Currency is a bad risk-adjusted bet. Lots of vol per unit return.
I’d also argue much of what Trump wants to do is consistent with a lower dollar. Lower long end rates…lower dollar. Ukraine/Russia ends…lower dollar. More US manufacturing- only w a lower dollar. Rollback of govt “waste”- according to him- likely slippage in growth and lower dollar. Especially if Europe isn’t half bad. Less globalization- lower dollar (few different reasons).
Motherfuckingfuckfuck. I bought a bunch of Intel at the end of last year, couldnt stomach the negative news and reports of shitty product/managment towards the middle/end of january and sold it all. I gotta harden the fuck up and gut it out next time. Damnit!
The cycle doesn’t call it capitulation for nothing.
Thinking of putting a sizable chunk of change in BINC. Tell me if I am crazy as this is not in my experience zone. Thx
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I cashed out a bunch of profits in january, and also the above mentioned INTC stock and put it in BINC instead of storing as cash. Not excited about any other stocks right now, so i figured why not?Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
But also, im somewhat blindsquirelling my way through this all.
BINC is fine, just be sure you understand you're not getting the extra yield over treasuries for free. There is more risk - it is loaded with international and junk bonds. In an economic downturn, this is going to lose some value. You need to decide what level of risk you need/want to take and accept what the market is offering from there - stop yield chasing simply because of some magic 5% number you desire.
BINC is a decent enough fund, great manager, but dont think of it as “instead of storing as cash”. For the extra 175+bps of return you’re getting over cash or a cash proxy, it’s got quite a bit more risk. It’s pretty diversified across rate risk, regional exposure, sub asset classes….but that extra return doesn’t come free.Quote:
Originally Posted by californiagrown
That may be totally fine, but it isn’t cash or cash substitute.
You really think that if there is the risk of a recession, which I definitely believe in, that a bond fund is going to lose value as rates decrease? That doesn't make sense to me, but I don't know shit.
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Its going to lose value as the marginal companies go tits-up and default on the bonds.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Not because of rates decreasing, but because its holdings will stop paying the coupons. Its top two holdings appear to be mortgage backed securities and corporate junk bonds. Recession = people stop paying their mortgages and risky companies go belly-up.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Yes. Expounding on this is how safe do you think the yield is? In BINC I’d say pretty safe. It has an overall A- credit rating compared to the category at BBB+.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
A lot of people say don’t own bond funds because of duration and (constant) maturity risk. But, that’s why I own bond funds. I want a steady duration and maturity profile because I can predict yield for a longer time frame.
Blackrock, like Pimco, being so big they are first in line for the best offerings and provide an extra measure of safety and liquidity.
https://youtu.be/ZMzjCF4fqGI?si=CazD95zALft0Oip9
So a few thoughts here.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
A yield being safe can go a few ways- safe from the market selling off and the yield going higher? Creating a great buying opportunity? Safe from duration/term risk if the Fed were to cut and your yield goes down? Rates/inflation going up and you are term’d out, longer than you should be? - from a credit standpoint, businesses are in good shape. Strong balance sheets. A strong consumer. Strong economy still. But spreads are TIGHT. I think duration-wise, it’s like a 3 year so nothing too long. Much more biased risk-wise to the credit side, which you’d expect. But the yield isn’t what the risk is. It’s the total return in a sell off scenario. The sharpness and duration of a sell off (rates or credit) need to be somewhat offset by the yield. Lose 3% on price gain 7% on coupon net 4% total return (and blackrock can assess what they want to ACTUALLY pay out in the distributions…which is important). For BINC I think looking at the spread duration contribution they get from each sector (corp, mtg, rates) is helpful.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in blackrock or pimco or whoever being big and first in line. There’s big players out there buying big chunks of all the same bonds. And buying/selling more often, doing more business with the sell side. Participating in more new issue (think index funds…they buy everything so issuers will throw them bonds first,generally).
Bonds are great. More predictable to align with your goals and objectives (income). Less upside obviously but that’s the give up.
And if you aren't retiring for 15 + years where would you deploy?
You want like a model portfolio with a dozen ish ETF’s? or a couple things that would likely pay off over fifteen years even if they went to shit in the next three?Quote:
Originally Posted by summit;And if you aren't retiring for [emoji[emoji6[emoji640
I don’t get as deep into individual stocks anymore but…
Bitcoin
Palantir
Abbvie
Dividends contributed up to forty percent of long term stock gains. With SPY yielding so little now and the risk premium at zero owning some bonds is not wrong. A decade of zirp and recent capital losses in 60/40 have soured people on the sector.Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
Spy div yield is no worse than credit spreads, historically speaking. And I’d argue market leadership for the past fifteen years wasn’t driven by dividend yielding stocks. So it matters little.
Bonds have their role. But with inflation sticking around three % and spreads so tight (so the bulk of yield is rate-driven)…outside of a true need for income stability or a degree of portfolio diversification (em HC debt, duration)…I’ll forego a six % yield (three% real return) and stick with equities.