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12.04% Annualized since 1/1/2021. This is when the company moved to our current 401k holder (Empower). Maybe 50% company stock (big part of the returns recently), 20% bonds, 30% split into the normal funds (S&P, Large Cap, Small Cap, Emerging Markets).
I've been buy and hold forever. I watch it closely and rebalanced the 30% every 2 years or so. Always want to make bigger moves, but end up holding.
Im too lazy to figure out how to look back more than 3 years in my etrade account...
In my YOLO account i am up 139.6%
In my "retirement" account i am up 33.9%
Dow is up 27.9%
Nasdaq is up 40.8%
SP500 is up 35.3%
My YOLO account is a combination of full on luck that i was deploying a very large (relative) amount of saved cash into the market for the first time right around the start of 2021, the fact that everyone did well over that time period, and that i gambled fairly big on META a couple years back when it crashed down to $100, and i also through dumb luck hit on VST a couple years back. My "retirement" account is doing, well, about what it should be doing... following the market.
I rebalance every year to keep about 66.6% in my safer "retirement" account, and 33.3% in my YOLO account.
and name redacted if you are new to this none of this has to be as complicated as anyone here makes it out to be.
just put it all in an s and p 500 index fund or a target date fund and just forget about it.
it's all really easy
Yeah, you could do a lot worse than checking what Vanguard is invested in in their target date funds and copying that strategy on you own (assuming your 401k isn't with Vanguard).Quote:
Originally Posted by NBABUCKS1
Etrade and im sure all the other platforms have simple retirement programs that you do where you simply put in your retirement date, transfer the funds, and they currate the retirement account for you. It will perform 100% as well as anything a financial advisor will put together, and you wont be paying the 1% per year fee.
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Originally Posted by Iowagriz
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Yeah, I have a retirement portfolio with an advisor. I'm just comparing it to people who actually do their own investing. I'm at 8.6% over the last 10 years having done nothing to that portfolio other than just consistently contribute and let them invest it. Usually ~80/20. I have made a lot more money on other investments, but those took more work/risk etc. </p>
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Originally Posted by Name Redacted
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No one beats the market is the general platitude. With that in mind, i personally do not see the use in having a financial advisor whom you pay 1% annually to for them to do the EXACT same thing as the robo-investing retirement products that etrade/ameritrade/vanguard/etc all have easily available for a fraction of the cost. IMO, financial advisors should be used on an as-needed basis when big financial decisions needs to be made and you want to run it by an expert (buying a house or RE, inheritance, setting up trusts/every 5 years to learn about anything thats changed in the world of finance).</p>
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Originally Posted by Name Redacted
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If youre paying 0.02% annual fees to your financial advsior all i have to ask is who is this non-profit? Or, are you a billionaire? </p>
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FWIW, automated investing through vanguard (notoriously low fees) is something like 0.15%. So you are either getting one helluva good deal, or something is fishy.</p>
No i meant .2%
My one hundred percent bond portfolio yields eight percent and pays my income needs with a surplus and a big raise last year. With dividend yields so low relying upon historical growth measures for SPY just doesn’t make sense. If stocks drop a lot I’ll re-allocate. If bonds do well I’ll sell some and raise cash. I remember the fifteen year period of zero return in SPY and it wasn’t that long ago.
Also, if the doge commission does cut spending and eliminates thousands of jobs that will hurt growth and potentially help bond rates. What that does to stocks I couldn’t speculate
Berkshire would be a good diversifier against a bond portfolio. With all that cash who would you rather have time the market?
Shuttering USAID is going to put thousands of humanitarian workers out of work in the next few weeks. My SO is one of them. Multiply this across the many organizations that depend on federal funding from the other stuff that is in the cross hairs and this has to have an impact on the overall economy....
Equity risk premium is lowest in 22 years:
https://www.ft.com/content/f8b6dbb5-...a-e7c9b2925bb3
That means the difference between the two, a measure of the so-called equity risk premium, or the extra compensation to an investor for the risk of owning stocks, has fallen into negative territory and reached a level last seen in 2002
Incremental job growth has been all government the last few years and these are high paying jobs:Quote:
Originally Posted by climberevan
Employment growth in government accelerated in 2023 (+709,000), exceeding growth in 2022 (+299,000) and 2021 (+392,000). Government employment recovered to its prepandemic level in September 2023, surpassing its February 2020 level by 209,000 in December 2023.
What bonds are paying 8% Junk?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Delete
Blended portfolio:Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nuclear Option
BINC
PDI
HYS
PAXS
^^^ No TIPs?
Don’t need them with normalized rates. I sold my real return indexed fund PASAX last October and switched into BINC and HYS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion [emoji638
Inflation was transitory and the risk is back to deflation imo.
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Donald Trump is not asking the Federal Reserve to lower its short-term interest rates, but what he and the president do want is to bring down longer-term borrowing costs via 10-year Treasury yields."
How do they do that? No details in the article. I thought rate was set by what the big buyers are willing to pay at auction? Are they planning to invert the yield curve intentionally, basically admitting they plan to trash the economy?
They can try and talk it into happening but they can't make it happen. Macroeconomics is the apex predator of ill-advised regimes
TIPS currently have a real yield greater than 2-percent which means an investment would provide a risk free return that exceeds U.S. inflation by that amount for more than for 10 years. That's good for risk freeQuote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Nearly all job growth came from foreign-born workers in the last 3yrsQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
It’s a worthy goal. Any lower trajectory in funding needs will help longer treasury rates.
I don’t believe in “smooth landing” either. The Fed wants shelter costs down and need a soft year in housing to accomplish that.
Housing metrics are rapidly deteriorating and I expect rents to continue soft for a while.
I’d really like to see a dent in section eight housing funds. No more high income zip code support would help.
Supply and demand. They can change the number of long bonds in circulation. And/or the number relative to shorter ones, since those compete to an extent. Higher prices mean lower yields, so sell less 10Y to bring down long rates to re-inflate Trump's RE holdings/help him refi at lower rates.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
The Fed acted to tweak the curve this way during the Obama administration when it wasn't setting up to their liking. And they should have done the opposite in 2020 to keep housing from going nuts, but they faced the same guy.
The effects of yield-curve management are limited given high deficits and elevated inflation. Add to that the threat of tariffs and worse the threat of a capital wars if foreign central banks start selling treasuries in response to tariffs. Treasury and the Fed might be able to make some short-term impact but it is mostly contingent on a host of other policy consequences.
Anyone else here have a bunch of PLTR shares with a $20 cost basis? I feel like the Oracle of Wall Street right now.
IMS last time it took a minute for demand to outstrip resale supply, but weeks not years. This year's 10Y is next year's 9Y, so unless there's a whole lot of old 20Y and 30Y out there the Fed can make it happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Makes me think now might be a good time to buy 10Y to sell when rates fall. Which would help by soaking up some supply.
What is it they say about fighting the Fed again? Do it? Don't do it?
Honestly, the most likely reason for long rates to stay up is the Fed growing a backbone. Which kind of says a lot.
Powell said we're close to the neutral rate given current macro/fiscal conditions so I'm not sure what fighting the Fed means in this environment. They cut 100 basis points last year and long term yields rose. That hasn't happened in nearly fifty years. I do agree bonds are looking more attractive given high economic growth expectations priced into stocks. Although, I think rates remain higher as long as inflation remains elevated. So far there hasn't been much progress on an annual basis from 2023 to 2024 with CorePCE only falling from 3%-to-2.8%. Macro, and as deficits rise increasingly fiscal, conditions are what drives asset & bond prices.
Anyone trade VIX? Maybe I’m out to lunch but the only confidence I have in the market - is volatility. Have been holding UVIX mostly waiting for a huge spike while ripping profits on opportunities, then reentering lower.
With all the sketchy things that could cause it to 2-4x within hours. Hitting 52 lows rn is absurd. Keep adding but I’m more overweight than orange man.
Aug 5 on yen carry trade it 4x overnight. I’ve got a mouthwatering exit ladder that would buy me a Canadian ski condo if that type event happened again.
4matic: Blended portfolio:
BINC
PDI
HYS
PAXS
YTD is nowhere close to 8%.
lol.. ok man. Whatever you sayQuote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
At some point the vix* products might have a big rally. The problem is there is so much option volume now these derivative formulas get skewed.Quote:
Originally Posted by CascadeLuke
What am I missing here? Looks like the average return of those four funds over the past year is 3.525%, and that's being dragged up PAXS's 8.25%, but that's a leveraged fund so that risk should be factored in, it's not really 'safe', right?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
That’s the return. Return plus YIELD is twelve percent.
I did the math and the combined YIELD of my mix is a little over eight percent
You don’t get high YIELD without risk. I know that.
You guys are confusing yield, return, and total return. Look it up.
Emoji hell makes it hard to talk about percentages
So I’m clear here about my risk. PDI and PAXS are levered high yield funds. My expectation of total return over ten year plus time frame is five percent. The reason I use these high yield levered funds is that it’s an easy way (for me) to manage withdrawals. Right now it throws off 2 percent excess income that I keep in cash in case I need it and I don’t have to sell anything.
IF, big if, the levered funds have a big RETURN year and interest rates are still adequate I would sell some to preserve capital.
Also, if stocks have a big down period of twenty to thirty percent I would reallocate to that depending on where I’m at. For now I don’t have to do anything but spend distributions.
PDI is a lightning rod for a lot of reasons. But, even if PIMCO cut the dividend to match its Undistributed net investment income (UNII) it would still yield eleven percent. Note that PDI has never cut the dividend in twelve years.
I wouldn't say I'm confusing it, I just don't know how those funds work.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
So that yield gets paid out to the ETF holder, not reinvested in the fund, I take it?
I started investing for income about three years ago and was a few months early so took a big capital drawdown. As of now my capital drawdown is less than three percent. And the way I’ve looked at this is ten percent swings either way are largely irrelevant to the payout…as long as they pay. For me, a few more years of higher for longer is great. The entire portfolio of bonds would be rolled in every one of my funds to bonds which were financed or re-financed at higher rates.
Dividends and bond yields are never included when you look at the simple return of a stock, fund, or etf. There’s return, return at nav, yield, total return, total reinvested return. There’s is no one answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
I don’t re-invest and that’s always a choice. But, there are also special dividends, year end capital gains returns, etc. There haven’t been many of those since 2021 but BINC paid a sixty cent special in December for a ninety cent total payout. Almost a full two percent.
CPI, core CPI and PPI came in hot and no one seems to give a shit.
I still think stagflation is a possibility.