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Apparently you are surprised that your stoned useless actor ass making bank on rich folk sucking on treasury tit didn’t do shit. Who you?Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
I get it though, amnesia of early 2020 is the lie you need to tell to make the sale
What’s the cure for high prices?
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Ppp was a drop in the bucket. 350b? Rounding error.
How did ppp cause inflation in GB? In Germany? Asia? Which are all just as bad if not worse than the Us. How did ppp jack up the price of lumber and semiconductors and used cars.
easy brahQuote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
I usually don't engange your engaging attitude but I'm in a slappy mood tonight after getting 60k in payments this week and it's only wed billed out 140k at the start of the month gonna be good this year
but I was in the ICU for the start of 2020 my life got turned upside down quickly and I suffered mentally it sucked
covid was a joke to me compared to what I had to deal with and where I am today health wise so suck my cock bro
I can guarantee you that not one cent of my ppp money went to anything worthwhile other than shit to make me feel good and my payroll is massive bruh we didn't shut down for any covid stuff just amped up to another level in ski town usa
and I know exactly where my customers money is coming from was just shooting the shit with some fortune 500 ceo on the phone today and I'm very cool with it hope you can understand how a capitalist society works someday my life is unreal so far from that essay I wrote in 9th grade about where I'd be when I'm older....................
and yeah "ay bitch pass me my ripple"
^^^
This. Inflation is a very complex discussion but the market is freaking out because the fed has decided to turn off the money spigot that traders have been drinking out of for the last decade. The amount of subsidies the rich have been given from the government since 2008 is beyond mind boggling. Low rates and quantitative easing make ppp look like a penny on the sidewalk. Inflation wouldn’t be as bad if corporations took a little haircut on profits for 2 years. Seems fair as the tax payer has made them huge profits for the last decade of which they haven’t paid taxes for.
Imagine if all that money wasn't pumped in while 40%+ of the global workforce was practically idle for close to a fucking year. These supply shortages are trivial compared to the shitshow depression we'd have hit without free money. A war in Urup doesn't help.. and big oil is using that as a smokscreen to fuck us all. RECORD profits and no product outages.. I'm calling bullshit on oil or gas shortages requiring price increases..
My business wouldn’t be solvent without the PPP money we received. None of my employees went on unemployment. Our sales were cut by more than half, nobody was driving. We stayed afloat by the skin of our teeth.
Maybe in your whole foods milf watching world people were living it up, but in my world it sure didn’t look the way you play it out.
P3 was a minor investment and probably paid for itself.
And fuck those poor people wanting to breathe healthy air. Ya know there is a lot of room east of Denver, whats stopping Suncor from building a new refinery 100 miles east of the Denver? NIMBYism?Quote:
suncor has a refinery in north denver been there over a hundred years and now every fucking environmental nimby has loaded the poor people on their back screaming that they violate epa air quality standards weekly (the refinery does) and it needs to shut down immediately
Plenty of stories of good small business’ that stayed afloat via ppp. Of course rich asshats scammed the system. Really glad it worked for you. Next time I need a wrench in SLC I need to check out your shop.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
I can assure you that Moody’s economic modeling does in fact take into account both supply AND demand. Rather innovative of them to think of that, actually.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I don't know, man, 2 variables? Why do you hate America?Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
Stop buying or start producing? Damnit. Too many options.Quote:
Originally Posted by skiballs
I'm not positing that supply constraints didn't cause inflation. Inflation is a product of variable on both the supply and demand side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
FWIW PPP was $953 billion.
People used PPP money to buy cars and houses while supply was constrained.
Trillions in asset purchases by the fed caused inflation. Low interest rates for too long and money printing caused inflation. People making more on unemployment than they had ever made in their lives caused inflation. Direct payments and extended child tax credits caused inflation. All were forms of stimulus that caused inflation from the demand side.
As far as the global economy, there were trillions in demand side stimulus from central banks and governments around the globe all while supply was constrained.
EM got screwed as commodities spiked. Isn't that tradition?
The SBA commenced the PPP on April 3, 2020, and closed the program on April 16, 2020, on the exhaustion of the $349 billion appropriated by Congress (Round One). Congress later provided an additional $320 billion for the PPP in H.R.JQuote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
950 or 670, basically the same, this discussion is now diverging away from the stock market and into the US economy.
Does anyone remember what it was like in April of 2020? No cars on the road, full lock down.
We deferred the pain. The bill has come due.
I’ve been all over the place with my $97 put on XOM, shoulda re-bought when I was up $100 on it early yesterday. It promptly went underwater and I bought it back today for minimal gain. Today the underlying dipped below my break even point, I decided to take any gain and will attempt another tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Picked up 20 more shares of MMP when it dipped below $50 today, Goldman Sachs upgraded it to a buy last week with a $59 price target. I’m already filling out a K-1 for it and the 8.1% yield makes it a no brainer.
Unless all of the demand stimulus falls under "other" on that chart then only 10 basis points out of 860 represented on that chart point to anything other than supply issues. Little suspicious, no?Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
Moody's is a rating agency with no credibility. I have little confidence in anything they have to say.
fed buying was the cause of inflation….that was the original point of it. To inflate the economy. And it never really worked that well. Remember all the inflation in 2011,2012, 2013, 2014…2015…2016…17. 2018. 2019. 2020 (haha) 2021? Neither do I.
Coming out of a global pandemic which shut down entire economies…this causes some shit. And here we are. It’s not a few “rich” people scamming ppp (because “poor” people definitely don’t do that shit). A lot of that money was paid to workers in place of unemployment benefits anyway. It’s under a trillion that largely kept businesses afloat and we’d be in a bigger heap of absolute shit without it. Little inflation? Try depression. I’ll take inflation 7 days a week twice on Sunday.
Demand for goods is tilting back in favor of services where it was pre pandemic. But it isn’t much higher than pre pandemic. The issue is supply can’t facilitate this, whether shipping or commodity materials or whatever.
blah blah blah says trust fund Freddie. Double bag the 300# 65 year old at the end of the bar and spray here how she’s 18 and a 10. Shit in shit out is Freddie, whatever the mooks want to hearQuote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
whats the pain when demand returns to normal? If we hadn’t done PPP tons of supply would have disappeared and shit would be worse when normal returned.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
god damn this place is assholes
Are you becoming self aware?Quote:
god damn this place is assholes
lets get real tonight
if you give a shit about anyone else and aren't out for yourself in this country your going to get steamrolled
thats the magical world we have built up
I"m honest about it I don't give a fuck
you think the oil wildcat I'm working for right now gives a shit about the environment? nope?
you think the ceo who is pretending to give corporate money to black causes really gives a shit about poor people in the ghetto who don't buy his product?
I know how to sniff out a big time well known brand corporate banker and help him realize his dreams this guy sure as fuck doesn't seem to things are too bad my estimate was too low so we added another 100k to the scope at our meeting on sunday
half way through a 700k project and there is no concern about the economy when we hit phase three this fall on a ten million dollar home
if you are honest and altruistic in this country you will get no where
It sounds like a tautology but the cure for high prices is high prices.Quote:
Originally Posted by skiballs
To the extent prices rise in response to adverse supply developments, that's evidence a unit of account is working well, not badly. It's actually desirable to let prices rise if rising real costs are causing it.
What we don't want is the Fed driving excess demand. By the end of Q2 2020 the American economy had fallen 12% below trend GDP so the Fed did a good job stimulating demand under extraordinarily circumstances.
That is up until the fourth quarter of last year when excess demand explodes in the opposite direction. All of the variables predicted it was going to happen and so the Fed should have taken steps to slow excess demand in Q3 of last year.
Takeaway: folks need to add a third variable time (t) to their equations.
Moody’s Analytics is not a ratings agency. They have earned quite a bit of credibility for their modeling, whether you want to believe it or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Why do you hate America?Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
And thanks for making the case for higher gas taxes.
FIFY. I know you can't be all about spelling and shit, but if we're gonna get this down to one variable it's gonna take precision.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Just to add to this: Moody’s analysis for the effect of the American Rescue Plan are inline with those of the Fed:Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
Attachment 419007
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/docu...rics-according
It’s not that the stimulus has no effect, but this breakdown is for inflation over the past 12 months, and the effects of ARP are waning (estimated contribution to inflation for 2021 was 0.35%, previous 12 month from now only 0.1%). A lot of that stimulus money has gone into personal savings as well, which also limited the amount of inflation the stimulus caused.
Their model (computer/mathematical simulation of the economy) has waaaaay more than multiverse’s current three/Joni’s desired one variable. My understanding of what they are doing here is playing a game of ‘what if’ with that model: what if instead of the money supply increasing x billions of dollars over the past 12 months it had been constant? What if we took ARP out? What if corporate profits weren’t higher than normal?
So they run a simulation with each of those variables held constant, compared to how they actually changed, and see the difference in inflation that the model spits out.
Everything in the ‘other’ category would for all the other components of the model that weren’t explicitly broken out.
The accuracy of their results are only as good as their model, but from what I’ve read by people who actually know about macro, their model is very good.
You are correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
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