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My all bond portfolio after withdrawals is down two and one half percent ytd and six percent from peak equity. Yield matters.
While we are dick waving, my all cash portfolio is up 4%
Ha, wait until the guy who put everything in gold chimes in :-)
February 1. Does cono still give out the prizes?Quote:
Originally Posted by jono
But the dollar is down 9%…Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
https://apnews.com/article/dollar-tr...2ad34ba5f5d977
Yup, should of bought those foreign ETFs. Silly me.
Things worth remembering: how good we had it in January 2025. Stocks near all time highs. Housing near all time highs. Inflation below 3-percent. Low unemployment at 4-percent. Risk-free 5-percent return on cash. Real GDP growth at 3-percent. American exceptionalism making us the envy of the world.
The economic order didn't start breaking down until Trump put a wrecking ball to it. Since this is the stock market thread — in response to "Multi verse, you are fucking clueless" — this crisis-in-the-making was wholly created by the White House's destructive tariff policies. Policy matters. Both to the economy and to the stock market.
This thread has always included a policy discussion. They concocted this policy based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the world economy by a historically ignorant president. This is not a political statement, this is an objective truth. Markets crashed due to horrible tariff policy, horrible dollar policy, which is just what anyone at all competent warned it would do. Backing off from bad policy, allowed markets to rebound somewhat. Meanwhile MAGA tries to spin it as proof of the bad policy's success — warble, warble, art of the deal — rinse and repeat.
It's truly incredible watching the richest country in human history getting fooled into doing this to itself.
"Tesla would have lost hundreds of millions of dollars had it not earned $400 million in interest on cash and investments and $595 million from selling credits to other carmakers that failed to meet emissions regulations that Mr. Trump has pledged to eliminate.Tesla shares rose about 5 percent in extended trading after the company released its quarterly earnings."
"Tesla would have lost hundreds of millions of dollars had it not earned $400 million in interest on cash and investments and $595 million from selling credits to other carmakers that failed to meet emissions regulations that Mr. Trump has pledged to eliminate.Tesla shares rose about 5 percent in extended trading after the company released its quarterly earnings.". Wtf?
ButQuote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
The path the US is on is unsustainable, importing a lot of stuff and paying for it with debt that China buys.
And the path of China is also unsustainable, depending a lot on exports and stockpiling us debt in return.
Us needs to manufacture more and reduce debt, China needs to consume more internally and reduce debt.
Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk
Under what time frame? YTD cash would be up one percent.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv[emoji638
Fwiw as of today I’m flat ytd and yoy after withdrawals. Better than I expected considering the risk leverage and credit quality.
And a partridge in a pear tree. Rod, you are a pice of work.
I love how all the tariff promoters, except Rod ofc, have by now pivoted to "ackshually tariffs are reckless" ever since the market completely rejected their bad arguments. To recap:
— US debt will become cheaper to service: nope, the opposite is happening
— Re-shore manufacturing: nope, manufacturing & investment & real output is falling
— Cut deals & isolate China: nope, Japan—the admins best hope—said no to deal that excludes China
This was identified early on as a likely outcome. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
well new neuron flashes, Trump is back on the increasing Candian Tarrifs and the 51st state but he hasn't started calling Carney the govenor yet !
If trade war resolves without too much treasury market turmoil it’s helping Fed slow economy and increase unemployment. Both necessary to get the upper hand on inflation.
MAGA finance reporter gasparino says wh trying to game the trade path by watching reactions in stock and bond market.
Every (bad) tariff theory is cooked. It's over. Admin flunky's are quite literary saying they need a "face saving" exit strategy, what with America being a face culture and all. Now it's not so much gaming the trade path through markets as it is gaming their exit via the media. They already know the original plan is an economic catastrophe, but need to act tough for the media.
That does not mean however that the admin will pivot quickly enough to save the economy. This has been so badly executed that China holds the upper hand. China taking full advantage. They're not even talking to us yet. Meanwhile domestic trucking volumes are down around 9-percent, Chinese shipping container volume bound for America down 60-percent.
1st quarter numbers should look ok-ish due to tariff front-running & cooling inflation. The big question/bet is what's the second quarter going to look like?
Wut?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I'm pretty certain the Fed would have said thanks-but-no-thanks if they were offered tariffs (but especially THESE traffis) as a way to help them with meeting their inflation and employment targets.
(Of course since they're required to maintain their staunch independence, their actual public response would be 'no comment')
Dollar getting hammered is net positive for stocks.
So you’re agreeing with me? As I said, the risk is a broken treasury market. If they were to cut and the treasury market breaks they’ve lost control. Could still lose control but that’s why we see caution. It’s not simply inflation risk which is why they state it as risks to the economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
No, not agreeing with you. The Fed is debating how to handle the increase in prices these tariffs are going to cause, while also trying to maintain employment levels. i.e. they're now debating how to handle upcoming stagflation.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Treasury market starting to implode might spook king don (like last week), but the tariffs are all about consolidation power and grift...so Im guessing he will keep at it, just keep trying ways until finds ones that do not cause treasury rates to go crazy. Until he doesnt care about that too. Although Wall st seems to think it is over and is now expecting a fed rate cut?!:eyeroll:
"1st quarter numbers should look ok-ish due to tariff front-running & cooling inflation. The big question/bet is what's the second quarter going to look like?"
Everything I read says it is going to be ugly and not to buy this dip today as the worst is yet to come. We'll see.
Point of order: shrinkflation. Is there anyone left that doesn't expect negative growth at this point?Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
"Shrinkflation good, USD bad" is 2025th level cope.
I tried to sell a put on TECS today and if we don't open sharply down right from the jump I'll try again tomorrow.
Chickened out and sold my recently purchased SP500 fund shares a couple days ago. Took the few thousand I made and gave it to a local nonprofit for adults with disabilities that wanted to buy a fleet of kayaks for their people to use. According to an article in the paper the other day, flatwater kayaking is something these folks can do and they love it.
If I'd sold today I would have made an additional four thousand. I don't care though, I just wanted out. I don't have the stomach for this chaos. I sleep much better with cash in my mattress. [emoji28]
Yeah, my bad. I've even said shrinkflation in here.Quote:
Originally Posted by jono
GDP forecasts from the Fed, from Goldman, have gone negative.
Meeting with those CEOs yesterday was a wake up call for Trump. Them talking about empty store shelves this summer at Target and Walmart made him shit a brick. He's all about ego and there's no way he could pass the buck for that.
Pretty naive to think soft Americans could out-suffer a civilization as old and tough as China. Now they know how weak we truly are. Fortunately they still need us and they'll probably let him save face to save their own ass. As for Canada, there's a lot of pissed off farmers and ranchers in Montana right now who are already getting crushed by the uncertainty surrounding those tariffs. Big article in the paper yesterday about the farmers' union joining a lawsuit with the Blackfeet tribe challenging his authority to impose these tariffs. That's his base suing him. Not good optics.
I haven't seen any sign of China being willing to give an inch. They talk about needing to save face too; they can't be seen as giving it to a bully.
Or maybe they are just better negotiators than Trump.
https://c8.alamy.com/comp/GBGAEG/leo...nch-GBGAEG.jpgQuote:
As for Canada, there's a lot of pissed off farmers and ranchers in Montana right now who are already getting crushed by the uncertainty surrounding those tariffs. Big article in the paper yesterday about the farmers' union joining a lawsuit with the Blackfeet tribe challenging his authority to impose these tariffs. That's his base suing him. Not good optics.
The faces... they are soooo delicious. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by civilcoconut
How much of the current s&p 500 market value is being propped up by the assumption of increasing inflation and that the biggest firms will benefit from increasing prices like they did from Covid?
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Treasury mkt exploded yrs ago under crooked joe.
Good week for Tesla shareholders!
which country you from again?
All of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by m2711c
Born Canada, uk parents, lived Ca., Guatemala, Namibia, chile. Then naturalized US citizen at 20.
Stalkers should know this already. !
Numbskulls
Bless your heart
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3 weeks after I've been able to login and post. Nothing changes my conclusion that the US is irredeemable fucked.
Why did Trudeau do this?
Puts on SPY