Is the stock market going to tank?

The RONA low situation in Feb-Apr 2020 was astoundingly and decidedly more dire than now.

Even the collapse of the market in 2007/2008 where SPY was over -50% in 9 months, it had recovered to -15% in just another 13 months. The precipitating events of the 2008 crash were also far more dire than now.

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Originally Posted by summit

The RONA low situation in Feb-Apr 2020 was astoundingly and decidedly more dire than now.

Even the collapse of the market in 2007/2008 where SPY was over -50% in 9 months, it had recovered to -15% in just another 13 months. The precipitating events of the 2008 crash were also far more dire than now.

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Dow 23500-25000 is easy.

We haven’t felt the pain yet. When people are forced to sell, then it gets interesting. With all the stupid crazy that’s gone on the last few yrs I don’t see why that won’t happen again.


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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

An explanation for the Rubles recovery would involve equations with variables used by the Russian central bank like capital controls and very high interest rates but what's the point when all anyone sees is number go up?

FWIW, Russian oil production is down nearly 20% since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. And Russia’s GDP is forecast to contract up to 15 percent this year, erasing the last fifteen years of economic progresses.



heh, instead of sanctions there's a strong case to be made for taxing Russian petroleum imports instead.

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Interest rate in Russia is what it was pre invasion.

Russia is selling less oil,, but the revenues are way higher because the oil price is higher.

Unfortunately, the sanctions so far are hurting us more than Russia.

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But yeah, taxing Russian oil might be a good idea, but again this is hurting EU.

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When Summit writes what he just did it tells me many many people watch to much TV.

WAR

with

CHINA

Oil to $250

Jobs will go Bye Bye because of Margin Compression and Lack of Revenues

It is INTERESTING TIMES we live in

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other...BingNewsSearch

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Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

Except the equipment that runs off fossil fuels cannot switch to the cheapest fuel on a daily basis...theory, meet reality!

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But the ones people use who are bitching about high gas prices at the pump definitely have alternatives.. Again, there is NO SHORTAGE. This is gouging. The price at the pump comes down when more people use those alternatives.

Reality meet proximity

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Originally Posted by rod9301

Russia is selling less oil,, but the revenues are way higher because the oil price is higher.

Unfortunately, the sanctions so far are hurting us more than Russia.

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The problem with your argument is oil prices are up mainly because of too little investment (including in Russia) due to a variety of reasons predating Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. While it's true Russia is benefiting from higher energy prices, it's not necessarily the case lifting sanctions lowers prices all that much.

There's no doubt the Ukraine war has thrown a real wrench into the works and is contributing to supply side shortages but that's not the whole story. In the United States for example a lack of refining capacity is pushing up gas prices:
Attachment 419091

TINA

We Do Not Have Enough Lithium or Cobalt .


Attachment 419092

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Originally Posted by NakedShorts

TINA

We Do Not Have Enough Lithium or Cobalt .


Attachment 419092

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This is true! 90% of the worlds cobalt is from dem rep Congo and probably controlled by warlords. 60% of the worlds nickel (necessary in EV batteries) comes from Russia. Lithium is being produced and hoarded by…you guessed it! China!

Not saying electric vehicles are bad. But basically all energy has consequences. Make your bed with the most efficient/human rights friendly/clean/cheap!

Where does the power to charge the EV charging stations come from? Magic?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/gm-i...dominance.html

And this of only the start of new battery technology.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

This is true! 90% of the worlds cobalt is from dem rep Congo and probably controlled by warlords. 60% of the worlds nickel (necessary in EV batteries) comes from Russia. Lithium is being produced and hoarded by…you guessed it! China!

Not saying electric vehicles are bad. But basically all energy has consequences. Make your bed with the most efficient/human rights friendly/clean/cheap!

Where does the power to charge the EV charging stations come from? Magic?

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Yup, all that and more is why I wanted hydrogen to succeed, but nope.

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Originally Posted by NakedShorts

B
I
N
G
O

When Summit writes what he just did it tells me many many people watch to much TV.

WAR

with

CHINA

Oil to $250

Jobs will go Bye Bye because of Margin Compression and Lack of Revenues

It is INTERESTING TIMES we live in

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other...BingNewsSearch

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I don't watch TV. I don't have cable or antenna.

Agreed if we fight China, all bets are off and things are super fucked.

That may happen. But I hope not and am not investing based on the certainty of going toe-to-toe with the ChiComs.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

This is true! 90% of the worlds cobalt is from dem rep Congo and probably controlled by warlords. 60% of the worlds nickel (necessary in EV batteries) comes from Russia. Lithium is being produced and hoarded by…you guessed it! China!

Not saying electric vehicles are bad. But basically all energy has consequences. Make your bed with the most efficient/human rights friendly/clean/cheap!

Where does the power to charge the EV charging stations come from? Magic?

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That’s correct, but Current producers != mining reserves != reserves. Australia & Indonesia have the largest nickel reserves by far, a bunch of S America countries are sitting on lots of Lithium. Copper is gonna get squeezed though.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Yup, all that and more is why I wanted hydrogen to succeed, but nope.

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Hydrogen takes a lot of energy to separate from oxygen. Denmark is creating a massive off shore wind system specifically to power this process. With the idea of being a huge exporter of hydrogen. My guess is that wouldn’t fly with the voters of SoCal who just voted down a desalination plant.

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Originally Posted by altacoup

My guess is that wouldn’t fly with the voters of SoCal who just voted down a desalination plant.

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Lol. They're going to regret that.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Lol. They're going to regret that.

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Is it possible to short voter IQ?

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Originally Posted by Summer

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...iner/101149868

Australian mining company Lynas Rare Earths has been awarded a contract by the United States Department of Defence worth $US120 million to build a processing facility in the US.

The facility is expected to be built on the Gulf Coast in the state of Texas and should by operational by 2025.

It will reduce America's reliance on China for strategic minerals used to make missiles and other high-tech equipment.

Lynas Rare Earths is the world's only significant miner of rare earths outside China.

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This interview I thought brought up some good points about the bed for investment in the processing part, not just access to the raw minerals. There's a transcript so you can read it faster than listening.
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.ed...tical-minerals

Regardless of a lot of economic wordology, I still managed to grab some cash on the falling knife.

Super glad I bought back my $97 XOM put, grabbed $15 profit and re-established today to make another $35.

Enough to pay for another 2 of the EPD shares I bought on the dip at sub $25. Grabbed another 100 shares at $24.45.

Picked up another 20 shares of MMP again, even cheaper this time…

Still got some cash in reserve, loving loading up on high yields for cheap!

Bob….you need to charge 2 and 20.

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Originally Posted by BobMc

Regardless of a lot of economic wordology, I still managed to grab some cash on the falling knife.

Super glad I bought back my $97 XOM put, grabbed $15 profit and re-established today to make another $35.

Enough to pay for another 2 of the EPD shares I bought on the dip at sub $25. Grabbed another 100 shares at $24.45.

Picked up another 20 shares of MMP again, even cheaper this time…

Still got some cash in reserve, loving loading up on high yields for cheap!

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Also look at snp and ptr, Chinese oil companies.

During the last oil crisis, stock prices went down, but not by much and dividends seem to continue.

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Those Chinese oil companies are largely state owned. My advice: stay away from state owned companies especially those who aren’t friendly w the US.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Those Chinese oil companies are largely state owned. My advice: stay away from state owned companies especially those who aren’t friendly w the US.

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Agreed. I don't like the regulatory risk

Gasoline is down .50c in 7 trading days. 11%.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Gasoline is down .50c in 7 trading days. 11%.

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Ahh, deflation! Someone tell the Fed to cut rates!

Nat gas is down 30% in 8 trading days.

GSCI also down 11%