Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

I’m a horrible analyst. I have a small list of blue chips I’ve been buying for over 20 yrs. I think I first bought dis at 30 something. I also throw money into MO, JNJ, PEP, and a few others.

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Cool. I'm novice at this so I am just trying to understand people's rationale. I'll probably still be a novice in another 20 years :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by Summit

Cool. I'm novice at this so I am just trying to understand people's rationale. I'll probably still be a novice in another 20 years :biggrin:

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T is up on the year. Up today. Pays a 5% fully covered dividend and spin-off the controversial and debt burdened Warner Media. Plus, they are thinking about raising prices for cell plans.

I hate and don’t get the correlation to crypto. I suppose it weakens a key demographic spending power.

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Originally Posted by Summit

Cool. I'm novice at this so I am just trying to understand people's rationale. I'll probably still be a novice in another 20 years :biggrin:

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I know risk, options, and can call shit in the near term better than most. I also can still put up. 23 sec 50 yrs freestyle, but that’s for another time and place.

I learnt from all my trust fund friends, buy good shit and never sell. My criteria is that no matter what happens, the company will be around. I have a friend who just inherited around 1 billion in UPS stock his grandfather bought in 1945. No one has ever sold a single share. Not one.

Unless of course the world ends 30 min from now, which is a small probability, but increasing with mission creep.


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Originally Posted by VTeton

Ugly... Cost per share is now under $10, not keeping me up at night yet...

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Heh, I was all ready to assure you with member numbers, bank charter, products…

Then saw a random comment on a Seeking Alpha article. Went out and found their most recent filing, confirmed.

“Proposal 5:
To approve an Amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to give the Board of Directors discretionary authority to effect a reverse stock split”

My puts are for Oct, so I’m not terribly worried, but that doesn’t make me feel tingly. I have a feeling tomorrow may be time to sell another put? Heh, in for a penny in for a pound.

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Originally Posted by BobMc

Heh, I was all ready to assure you with member numbers, bank charter, products…

Then saw a random comment on a Seeking Alpha article. Went out and found their most recent filing, confirmed.

“Proposal 5:
To approve an Amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to give the Board of Directors discretionary authority to effect a reverse stock split”

My puts are for Oct, so I’m not terribly worried, but that doesn’t make me feel tingly. I have a feeling tomorrow may be time to sell another put? Heh, in for a penny in for a pound.

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They probably need to keep it above $5/share to prevent fund selling.

Sofi up 15% today. Probably down 20% monday.....

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

Unless of course the world ends 30 min from now, which is a small probability,

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World probably won't end, but you might.

Nasdaq 100 into oversold weekly RSI for first time since Great Recession. Wowza.

Charts look much lower. Inflation worry will turn to deflation soon enough especially if the dollar stays strong.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Charts look much lower. Inflation worry will turn to deflation soon enough especially if the dollar stays strong.

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What about stagflation? Feels like we're gonna go from, "the economy and job market are strong" to "everything is fucked" as quickly as we went from transitory to persistent inflation.

Not long term like the 70’s. There’s going to be huge layoffs coming for the highly paid meme librarians and marginal tech workers. Service economy will then have a better supply of workers.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Charts look much lower. Inflation worry will turn to deflation soon enough especially if the dollar stays strong.

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Do you mean charts aren't as bad as they look? Or that you think we're going lower?

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Not long term like the 70’s. There’s going to be huge layoffs coming for the highly paid meme librarians and marginal tech workers. Service economy will then have a better supply of workers.

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I hope you're right. I'm tired of living through financial crises.

Long term chart looks like nasdaq 8k. S&P 3200. Take back all the pandemic gains is reasonable.

10y rate was 1.8% then so lower is possible or rates have to come off.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

There’s going to be huge layoffs coming for the highly paid meme librarians...

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https://i.pinimg.com/originals/eb/e8...fd34696bfb.jpg

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Originally Posted by stalefish3169

Do you mean charts aren't as bad as they look? Or that you think we're going lower?



I hope you're right. I'm tired of living through financial crises.

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As long as humans are irrational creatures, you’re always gonna have crises.

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

I learnt from all my trust fund friends, buy good shit and never sell. My criteria is that no matter what happens, the company will be around. I have a friend who just inherited around 1 billion in UPS stock his grandfather bought in 1945. No one has ever sold a single share. Not one.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

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Your friend owns .6% of UPS?

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Originally Posted by mcphee

As long as humans are irrational creatures, you’re always gonna have crises.

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I guess I don't disagree. But there was a time not too long ago when most regular people could afford houses...often from one breadwinner's salary.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Long term chart looks like nasdaq 8k. S&P 3200. Take back all the pandemic gains is reasonable.

10y rate was 1.8% then so lower is possible or rates have to come off.

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By long term chart, are you looking at where things were the last time rates were at levels where the FFR is expected to go to? Just trying to understand your methodology since I don't know much about reading charts.

Local bottom in? lol

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status...98850463997954

Previous highs prior to pandemic when rates were lower. If rates are higher why not lower than that?

I been saying..my local Costco is way down on traffic and it’s basically drive up to the gas pumps.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

By long term chart, are you looking at where things were the last time rates were at levels where the FFR is expected to go to? Just trying to understand your methodology since I don't know much about reading charts.

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A bottom of 8K is a logical guess based upon the existing monthly support and resistance noted by the blue horizontal line.

I suspect the actions of the fed will probably play a larger role than technical analysis though.

Attachment 416742

I only use straight lines

https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/ima...l_analysis.png

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Originally Posted by 4matic

I been saying..my local Costco is way down on traffic and it’s basically drive up to the gas pumps.

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That would be nice.