Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by ötzi

I don't find that too surprising. Yard could sure use some trees but it's a pretty nice place. It says there's an offer pending, do you know how much it's for?

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Carries a Portland address, but not actually Portland proper. This is Washington County suburbs at the western bottom of the West Hills. Didn't want to pry on price, but I think its the buyers 4th or 5th house.

Just wanted to show that there seems to a early pick up in the demand around here. Maybe it won't be on price movement, but at least volumes won't be dead. Money is abound and those thinking there will be a 50% drop where they can swoop in and "steal" some housing might end up disappointed. We shall see.

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Originally Posted by rideit

The 'Starter home' now starts at a million. It's the new $250,000

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Thats not a starter home. Starter home around here would be a townhome for $500K. There are older homes in that same subdivision that would qualify as a starter home in the 2200sqft range detached for $700,000, but yeah...$700,000 is the new $250,000 as you say.

Sadly, starter homes in San Diego also average $700k. That is 6 times more than our first home but wages sure have not gone up 6 times for most anyone.

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Originally Posted by ötzi

It's almost 6100 square feet,

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I think that's the lot size. House is a bit over 3K sq ft.

These overpriced houses are a joke and then top off with an HOA fee.

And I'm part of the problem. We just threw a number at a house knowing they had two offers over asking. We had the high bid (I believe) and the seller decided to put it back out (counter offers amongst the 3 bidders) starting 5k above our offer. Thats why we assumed we had the high number. I said fuck off and so did the other 2 on the counter. One guy stayed with his original offer and may end up with it, but they lost my offer and the other guys. We completely withdrew.

Kevo, Bloomberg agrees with you...

“Marry the house, date the rate.” That’s the advice realtors and mortgage lenders are giving worried homebuyers as mortgage rates reapproach the two-decade high of 7% reached in November. In other words, don’t be afraid to commit to the house you love, because you can just refinance when rates come down in the next couple of years.

But frankly, it’s bad advice. New homeowners may come to find they’re in a longer-term relationship with today’s rate than they expected.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...on-a-refinance

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Originally Posted by rideit

The 'Starter home' now starts at a million. It's the new $250,000

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Without a serious correction in Real Estate prices OR significant wage gains across the board, how does one even afford their first house?

Yeah yeah, mortgages approached 20% the last time we had unchecked inflation back in the early 80's, but the average home was also under $100K.

Our kids are all fucked.

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Originally Posted by Percy Rideout

Without a serious correction in Real Estate prices OR significant wage gains across the board, how does one even afford their first house?

Yeah yeah, mortgages approached 20% the last time we had unchecked inflation back in the early 80's, but the average home was also under $100K.

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Lower their standards and start with this:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...79898776_zpid/

Half a mil to live in Beaverton? Pass.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Kevo, Bloomberg agrees with you...

“Marry the house, date the rate.” That’s the advice realtors and mortgage lenders are giving worried homebuyers as mortgage rates reapproach the two-decade high of 7% reached in November. In other words, don’t be afraid to commit to the house you love, because you can just refinance when rates come down in the next couple of years.

But frankly, it’s bad advice. New homeowners may come to find they’re in a longer-term relationship with today’s rate than they expected.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...on-a-refinance

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Glad to see an article counter to the endless stream of "home prices only go up, now is a great time to buy" nonsense that has been promoted across every media outlet for the past 3 years.

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Originally Posted by Percy Rideout

Without a serious correction in Real Estate prices OR significant wage gains across the board, how does one even afford their first house?

Yeah yeah, mortgages approached 20% the last time we had unchecked inflation back in the early 80's, but the average home was also under $100K.

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This country (and most of the developed world) is quickly headed down a path to neo-feudalism. The average person in need of a starter home won't ever be able to afford said home. The above average person in need of a starter home also won't ever be able to afford said home. Most of gen Z will be renting forever.

Median home price in the US is $476K. Average new car in the US is $47k. Median household income is $71K. Average cost of childcare per child is more than $10k per child per year.

The federal reserve does a pretty shitty job of measuring and controlling consumption inflation, and does literally nothing to control for asset inflation.

Asset prices have soared beyond the grasp of most wage earners. The average person (especially the average young person looking to gain access to property) is fucked, and their quality of life is going to continue to become measurably worse over time as all the capital pumped into the system seeks to maximize returns across every facet of life.

Maybe people should stop having so many kids...

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Half a mil to live in Beaverton? Pass.

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Here you go....something for everyone! Good luck!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...53862247_zpid/

Yeah, the Fed clearly doesn't understand the new economy where jobs and inflation aren't tied together. Their only tool is the rate, and driving rates up has really done nothing to counter inflation, so why they continue to drive rates up, which costs jobs, hurts buyers, etc, is beyond me. Maybe they should just sit this one out and let someone else tank the economy for once.

It also feels like lots of boomers, talking heads, and rich muckity mucks are rooting for a downturn, knowing they will be safe from it. I saw the CEO of some big company saying that if he didn't listen to CNBC he wouldn't think there was a recession coming because all of the actual numbers are holding strong. Same sentiment in this thread. Lots of talk about how there has to be a crash soon, even though I don't think there is really any evidence of it, just a shrinking of supply and a slowing down of the price increases.

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Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

Here you go....something for everyone! Good luck!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...53862247_zpid/

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That's a much better value, IMO. Detached, two car garage and a yard in the heart of Portland. Neighborhoods are a bit hit of miss in that area, but depending on the street it could be sweet.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Yeah, the Fed clearly doesn't understand the new economy where jobs and inflation aren't tied together. Their only tool is the rate, and driving rates up has really done nothing to counter inflation, so why they continue to drive rates up, which costs jobs, hurts buyers, etc, is beyond me. Maybe they should just sit this one out and let someone else tank the economy for once.

It also feels like lots of boomers, talking heads, and rich muckity mucks are rooting for a downturn, knowing they will be safe from it. I saw the CEO of some big company saying that if he didn't listen to CNBC he wouldn't think there was a recession coming because all of the actual numbers are holding strong. Same sentiment in this thread. Lots of talk about how there has to be a crash soon, even though I don't think there is really any evidence of it, just a shrinking of supply and a slowing down of the price increases.



That's a much better value, IMO. Detached, two car garage and a yard in the heart of Portland. Neighborhoods are a bit hit of miss in that area, but depending on the street it could be sweet.

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Everyone has different tastes, desires, and value.

Can we all just agree the real estate turns everyone into a complete cunt and move on to the next argument?

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Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

Everyone has different tastes, desires, and value.

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Yeah, not doubt. Not having kids, so not worrying about schools, sports, etc. certainly makes it easier to live closer in.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Yeah, the Fed clearly doesn't understand the new economy where jobs and inflation aren't tied together. Their only tool is the rate, and driving rates up has really done nothing to counter inflation, so why they continue to drive rates up, which costs jobs, hurts buyers, etc, is beyond me. Maybe they should just sit this one out and let someone else tank the economy for once.

It also feels like lots of boomers, talking heads, and rich muckity mucks are rooting for a downturn, knowing they will be safe from it. I saw the CEO of some big company saying that if he didn't listen to CNBC he wouldn't think there was a recession coming because all of the actual numbers are holding strong. Same sentiment in this thread. Lots of talk about how there has to be a crash soon, even though I don't think there is really any evidence of it, just a shrinking of supply and a slowing down of the price increases.



That's a much better value, IMO. Detached, two car garage and a yard in the heart of Portland. Neighborhoods are a bit hit of miss in that area, but depending on the street it could be sweet.

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I mean, I think they do, but they also recognize that they can't rely on Congress to act in any rational way on a consistent basis. Corp leadership want a downturn to keep wages suppressed as they're being forced to open their pocketbooks repeatedly, especially for high demand areas like tech folks.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Yeah, the Fed clearly doesn't understand the new economy where jobs and inflation aren't tied together. Their only tool is the rate, and driving rates up has really done nothing to counter inflation, so why they continue to drive rates up, which costs jobs, hurts buyers, etc, is beyond me. Maybe they should just sit this one out and let someone else tank the economy for once.

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Rate increases haven't countered inflation because real rates are still strongly negative. FFR needs to be greater than CPI to stop inflation. This has been known for generations and the fed is absolutely dropping the ball this time around.

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Originally Posted by jackstraw

These overpriced houses are a joke and then top off with an HOA fee.
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And a $8600 annual tax in 2021. So about 9k+ now. Ouch.
Unless It's standard for Portland? Never really looked.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Our kids are all fucked.

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Unless we buy them houses ahead of time just like we save for college. That's what I'm doing (with my middle class lifestyle). Only one kid though.
Being poor is gonna suck more than ever.

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Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

Lower their standards and start with this:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...79898776_zpid/

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Pretty nice place actually. Even with the HOA and fairly high taxes.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Our kids are all fucked.

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At least until the Boomers die off in significant numbers. Anecdotally, a older couple had bought a lot near us, and then got word that one of the couple was diagnosed with some serious illness and put the lot back on the market.

Kinda risky buying a house with such high rates and crossing the fingers that the rates will start to come down to a level where folks won't be stressed with the monthly mortgage payments.

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Originally Posted by Mani_UT

And a $8600 annual tax in 2021. So about 9k+ now. Ouch.
Unless It's standard for Portland? Never really looked.

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Varies wildly from neighborhood to neighborhood and even street to street. Had a weird CA-Prop-13 like standard made in 1995 and it general rises 3% a year from that...but like all good governments they find ways around that rule.

In general its ~1% +/- some variance. People in the Portland West Hills are more like 1.5+%.

You should see the income taxes!

Yeah sitting this out want buy but not paying 500k for a shit hoke in a location with zero local economic growth or potential for good jobs or tourist industry makes no sense

One house 500k in a flood plain no interior photos outside is a wreck no water rights.

When the economic downturn catches up the good part is we will be able to force major systematic changes such as anti trust laws cutting govt spending balanced budgets tax reform tax tge rich single payer health care since hospitals are so bloated they are going under you know the basic shit that is fucking us up