Yep. Smells like 2009Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Only with higher rates.
The one difference is higher labor and material costs.
I see a decent correction. But not all the way back. PSF costs are baked into the new cake.
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Yep. Smells like 2009Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Only with higher rates.
The one difference is higher labor and material costs.
I see a decent correction. But not all the way back. PSF costs are baked into the new cake.
No way you see a correction like 08-11 again, people actually have to qualify for their loans these days.
I envision a return to the mean so to speak. Location will matter again. The 2nd rate towns with meh school districts (or meh ski areas) will go back to meh prices, but the good stuff will continue to demand a premium just like it always has.
Yep, I feel similar. Price regression in slow steps unless there's meaningful rate changes. I know in NH a lot of mountain properties are cutting prices back to semi sane levels. I want to say we still have 50-100k to go in the current rate environment, but that's entirely seat of the pants.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdironRider
Interest rates need to come down, not just for first time buyers, but to get boomers out of their empty nests.
Magnifying the problem in California are boomers living in homes with artificially low property taxes due to prop 13.
Unless there's a way to get them out of their 4/3's, it's just a waiting game until they die off.
I'm not sure how lower interest rates would be an incentive for Boomers to sell?Quote:
Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain
The great 08 correction got up here eventualy so the last local down turn was 2010 , even tho we did not experiance anywhere near the problems becuz Canadian banks were not allowed to deregulate,
it was the sleeping next to the elephant when it shit the bed and i want to thank y'all cuz i could get back in the RE on the low cycle
They're sitting in homes with low interest rate mortgages, shopping for a new place with 7.5% rates on top of inflated prices isn't appetizing. Even with huge amounts of equity, empty nesters are holding back.Quote:
Originally Posted by skaredshtles
We're a good case of reference. We bought this place in 2012 at the absolute bottom, with a ridiculously low rate. We're now sitting on a mostly empty house with a shit ton of equity and low monthly mortgage payments, but why the hell would we want to sell, and where are we going to go that isn't overpriced to hell and with a 7+% note?
But we're not going to hold out for long, I'm ready to blow this popsicle stand. I'm tired of working on old houses and we're just looking for a place to land once we get my elderly folks situated.
And, AFAIK, today's financial markets aren't flooded with synthetic CDOs.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdironRider
I just assumed they would be mortgage-free, like me (though I'm *not* a Boomer), and purchasing something smaller with cash.Quote:
Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain
are there many meh ski areas left whos appeal isn’t based on proximity? There’s a dozen or so premium resorts in the us, and a bunch of other places that exist because a 2-5hr drive is nicer for people than a flight, and those places depend on the strength of their source basins economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdironRider
Cough .... Grand Targhee and Teton Valley .... Cough
Driggs isn't even a 2nd rate town with a meh school district. It's a 4th rate town with a momo controlled school district and a resort that's less than meh on the 75-100 days when there's no fresh powder.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdironRider
Yet the insanity continues....probably 50x more STRs available than LTRs
Driggs is overrated affluenza has entered the chat, for whatever it is, and how expensive it is, there’s a shot ton more shit below it.
I’d add Bend and Bachelor to that list.
A bright spot in a desert of lift access skiing.
Probably at this point, most would say unfortunately way too close to PDX.
All the big banks are performing "synthetic risk transfers" these daysQuote:
Originally Posted by Dantheman
No one in the wider world seemed to know shit about CDO's and other '08 bank shenanigans until after the fact.
The economist/the ft/the wsj had semi regular articles pre crash, this is from 2004 https://www.economist.com/finance-an...3/russian-dollQuote:
Originally Posted by oldnew_guy
COVID?Quote:
Originally Posted by AdironRider
Agreed about STR insanity. Some people are going to go cash flow negative and sell at a loss if we have a bad snow year or when the economy slows.Quote:
Originally Posted by neckdeep
The school district is no longer controlled by the LDS after the election yesterday and LDS families are actively being pushed out of the area. 1950s family structure with a single income earner and 6 kids doesn't work, especially not in a HCOL mountain town. I don't believe a single LDS candidate won in any of the local elections yesterday except for the mayor of Tetonia. The mormon families who lived on my street 3 years ago have now left the area. Will more leave now that the school district isn't a lock?
Most importantly, the US has added 34 million people since 2008. There are zero additional ski towns and there will probably never be another major ski resort developed in the US.
I have a very different opinion of the skiing here, but uh...yeah....it's meh. Nothing to see...
Surely many boomers have loans paid off and can pay cash as they downsize ?Quote:
Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain
No?
In talking with my octogenarian father and his cohorts, most are just too old accept the reality of today’s prices despite their relative property wealth Even sitting on million dollar properties (debt free), they see the cost of a new apartment of townhouse and say the market is crazy high and they won’t pay it. Not that their real estate is in the range of most new families anyhow, but their responses makes me smile and think of the ‘back in my day a gallon of milk cost a nickel’ kind of statements.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mani_UT
Often people resist leaving the home where all their memories reside even if it's way too much house for them now. Also, in CA even if they can pay cash for a new, smaller place they are likely looking at a hefty increase in their property tax bill.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mani_UT
Yeah - that CA tax thing they did has really created all kinds of unintended consequences...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dantheman
FAFO, they say.
I am in somewhat the same boat.Quote:
Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain
House basically paid off, thinking of moving to a little land. However, everything below us in price is a complete shit hole and everything above is 7.5%.
Can't really stomach either.
So I will sit and feel lucky and smug in my foresight to be born at the right time. (Well that and smart enough to have ignored everyone that told me the market was overpriced in 2003- and there were a lot of them).