http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/11/bu...hp&oref=slogin
“I guess we are a bit surprised at how fast this has unraveled,” said Tom Zimmerman, head of asset-backed securities research at UBS, in a recent conference call with investors.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/11/bu...hp&oref=slogin
“I guess we are a bit surprised at how fast this has unraveled,” said Tom Zimmerman, head of asset-backed securities research at UBS, in a recent conference call with investors.
iits a great time to increase your rental portfolio.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/17/bu...hp&oref=slogin
"Consider Nathaniel Shields, who expects to lose his four-bedroom Cape Cod house in southwest Chicago to a foreclosure in May.
He cannot afford his mortgage payment, which jumped to $1,300 a month from about $1,000 after his loan reset to a higher interest rate last summer. A divorce and the loss of his county government clerical job, which paid $14.80 an hour, have also hurt."
I just found out over the weekend that my house increased in value by over 100% in five years...in real terms. Crazy. From $230K to $550K, but it doesn't matter...unless we move to somewhere else, where we live is all we can afford. It's bizarre.
My firm cranks condo conversions (not my area of expertise) and I am sure we have streamlined the red-tape issues as best we can. Talk to a local law shop about this possibility before completely dismissing it. By perusing your posts, etc., I think I have a decent understanding of your Real Estate MO and I don't think that conversions are necessarily mutually exclusive. Just my $.02.Quote:
Originally Posted by meatdrink9
We're still waiting for the "crash" here in California...
From the LA Times:
The median price paid for a home in Southern California last month was $505,000, up 4.6% from March 2006, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. The median is the point at which half the prices are higher and half are lower.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...1,922028.story
The median home price in jackson just passed 1 million after the first quarter of 2007. Glad i got in when i did as i was priced out of this market several years ago. More like speeding up here than slowing down.
Jackson pops up every now and again in this thread as some sort of reference. Let's get something straight. Jackson is not real. It is like the rest of America as Manhattan, Malibu, and Aspen is.
SLC has definitely slowed down. I think during one 2 month period the zip code we were selling in only had 6 home sales. Condos have continued to go like crazy and for stupid expensive amounts per square foot. We sold our first ever "flip" project last week. We bought in July 06 for 181K and sold it last week for 355K. It took 40K in remodel money and 3 people working full-time for 3 months to complete the work. It was stressful as hell. Selling a home sucks. I blew my remodel budget and my payment budget. It took longer to sell than I thought. I had to go into CC debt to cover all the costs, (and the fact that I wasn't making money designing when I was tied up swinging a hammer full time) but in the end that was the most money I've ever made that quickly. Definitely risky. Plan for everything and have way more money set aside than you actually need. We did remodel two places at once and that obviously was a rough way to try getting into the flip thing. The other property is still up for sale. It only took a month to remodel and 15K in funds. Hopefully it will sell here shortly. But now the pressure is off and when that sells it'll just be gravy. We've already had one offer for well over what we're into it, but it wasn't enough to let it go.
Ogden is going berzerk. It's cheap as hell, but also fairly beat to hell as well. I've spent the last week searching for properties up there. It looks like almost everything could flow on a 15, but there's some shitty landlording going on that's keeping a lot of the city down. It'll be interesting to see if the city takes the turn the mayor is pushing for. Right now Ogden is my area for "buying and holding/rental" strategy, but the Avs/Cap Hill/Marmalade in SLC is still my location if I'm looking for flips. There are some crazy cool houses and neighborhoods in Ogden, but it's all really spotty. Incredible, restored 6-thousand square foot victorian mansions back-up to total crapshacks that have been divided into TINY triplexes. There are a ton of cool old Vic mansions around that have been cut-up into crappy multi-units. Hopefully they'll all get restored before too long. But to give a tiny taste of costs are up there. You can find homes for $50 a square foot, already remodeled. If you want to do the remodeling you can find stuff down around the $33 per square foot range. I found a cool old commercial building over 14,000 sq feet for $22 a square foot (and in a good location). I've already got one bid in on a bank owned property and will be seeing more properties tomorrow. I'd like to have 4 or 5 Ogden properties in the next year.
Saying real Estate as a whole is screwed is stupid. There will be areas that drop, but there will always be pockets that do well. Just like the stock market. Some stocks may lose value while others rise.
No, just like the market, when the overall index drops, it's not doing well. Sale prices, housing starts, foreclosures, etc. all point to a weak market. Pockets doing well, just like individual stocks doing well, aren't meaningful in a broad sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by meatdrink9
Index? Who cares. Just the same way I wouldn't give a shit about Enron if I owned Apple. I care about my own personal investments. I already said that SLC had slowed down. It's obvious this year won't be like last and the majority of markets aren't going to have a good year, but again while people are shaking their hands and crying about the sky falling I'm cashing the biggest checks I've ever seen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dexter Rutecki
I guess we're going on year two of this thread. I'll continue to put my money where my mouth is and invest and I'll share first hand accounts of how it goes. Meanwhile those of you not investing in real estate who know so much more than those of us who are feel free to continue to post articles about the Real Estate woes of East Bumfuckville. ;)
If someday someone comes and tells me my house isn't worth anything because the market has crashed I think I'd walk them through the house and show them the kitchen, the bathrooms, the furnace, the garage, etc... All of these things have value. Even if it's not monetary they're physical objects that cover one of our most basic needs of shelter. The stock market on the other hand. Say you used to own Enron. Someday someone can come tell you that all those pieces of paper that say they're worth money are worthless and you know what they'll be right. There's nothing you can do with them.
Obviously I'm a big fan of real estate, but only because it's treated me well.
whitney's written a lot of interesting stuff on related subjects:
Housing Bubble Boondoggle: “Is it too late to get out”?
http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle17585.htm
By Mike Whitney
04/24/07 "ICH" -- -- - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat assessment of the slumping real estate market on Friday saying, "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom.”
Baloney.
Paulson added that the meltdown in subprime mortages was not a “serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained.”
Wrong again.
Paulson knows full well that the housing market is headed for a crash and probably won’t bounce back for the next 4 or 5 years. That’s why Congress is slapping together a bailout package that will keep struggling homeowners out of foreclosure. If defaults keep skyrocketing at the present rate they are liable to bring the whole economy down in a heap.
Last week, the Senate convened the Joint Economic Committee, chaired by Senator Charles Schumer. The committee’s job is to develop a strategy to keep delinquent subprime mortgage holders in their homes. It may look like the congress is looking out for the little guy, but that’s not the case. As Schumer noted, “The subprime mortgage meltdown has economic consequences that will ripple through our communities unless we act.”
Schumer’s right. The repercussions of millions of homeowners defaulting on their loans could be a major hit for Wall Street and the banking sector. That’s what Schumer is worried about---not the plight of over-leveraged homeowners.
cont...
I more or less agree with Meatdrink. And like him I am pretty heavily invested in Real Estate. And I feel confident about it. I have a duplex under construction right now and and will be starting a group of rowhomes this fall. Things have slowed down somewhat, for sure. And the rate of appreciation has slowed. But what I think when I hear all these new reports about Dr Horton or Pulte homes losing money is that we are finally reaching the point where developing in concentric circles around major metropolitan areas has reached its profitable limit. Urban infill and intelligent land usage will continue to be popular and profitable. Denver is currently experience a huge surge of infill development. The first skyscrapers in decades are being started and buttloads of condos are going up at obscene prices.
Public perception will ebb and flow between irrational exuberance and unjustified pessimism. If you can ebb when others are flowing you can do well.
Don't ya love it. Stupid, greedy people borrow way too much to get into homes (and cars, and Big screens, and skis), and the "government" is going to "bail" them out now. Sooooo.....sounds like you and me are going to get a little higher tax bill to keep Mr and Mrs No Money Down in their little MacMansion. But, yeah, this could be a big problem for local politicians who depend on the ever rising value of of these homes by taxing them more and more, especially here in Joizy.
You've probably seen the articles on the front page of your local papers like this one: http://www.baltimoresun.com/business...ck=3&cset=true . I'm assuming it's an easy thing to research for a reporter, since foreclosures are on the public record. I refer to this one, because some may think that it's just lower class homeowners (heh) who are in trouble.
to be fair, government did a lot to induce these people to buy homes they couldn't afford. i'm all for personal responsibility, but lack of it doesn't absolve the racket.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
except this is about bailing out the bankers - who did much of the inducing, and made much of the money - not about the people who took out the loansQuote:
Originally Posted by spook
i agree. i was only referring to the comment about the stupid, greedy people borrowing too much.Quote:
Originally Posted by cj001f
Yeah, it seems like the old 'location,location,location' saying is in full effect in the Front Range these days. My father-in-law and good friend of mine (RE agents in Denver) both mentioned recently that the market outside of Central Denver has slowed drastically in the past 6-12 months (my father-in-law gave an example of his client getting a 80K reduction in price on a new home in SE Aurora). However, they mentioned homes priced right in Central Denver are selling quickly and prices appear to be holding up well. Heck, a 6,300-sq/ft lot (house was scraped) in West Wash Park just sold for $600k. Insane.Quote:
Originally Posted by mcsquared
Truth: There is no 'national' real estate market.
It is difficult to make sense of 'national' statistics when everyone's local market is different. In good times and bad. There are areas of the Midwest where people are saying 'what boom?'. In my market in SW FL, the market peaked in Nov/Dec 2005. Prices are down around 20% from the top and are still too high IMHO. Sales in 2006 were abysmal. Down 50% and more. Latest press articles are saying the 'crash' is over, and the Realtors are doing TV commercials saying now is the time to buy. Whatever. I haven't bought anything residential in 5 years.
National statistics are good for bankers and for companies who do business nationwide. What matters to most of us is what the market is doing where we are or where we do business. Real estate is cyclical, therefore it is always in a state of flux, either up or down. There are only two inflection points in the curve and you cannot see them until you are past them.
Just like in the stock market, there is always a way to make money, whether the market is 'going up' or 'going down'. Me, I'll stick to my commercial projects and situations where I can add value.
If anyone knows of a short sale/preforeclosure they wanna toss my way near Wellshire/Slavens in Denver, let me know :biggrin:
So much for the market cooling off in Calgary.
http://tetongravity.com/forums/attac...1&d=1177623256
The fixer upper house I bought in N.E. Calgary six years ago for $116,000 is now worth $330,000. No wonder realtors around here all drive big ass SUVs.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...1/b4035053.htm
Home Builders In A Hole
Battered by the bust, they're filing for Chapter 11 and begging hedge funds for help
The downturn in the housing market has caught the nation's home builders by surprise, leaving many overextended with costly land they can't develop and unfinished homes they can't sell. The financial strain is starting to show. From Arizona to Arkansas, dozens of small- and midsize builders have filed for bankruptcy over the past six months. Among the casualties: Turner Dunn Homes of Phoenix, whose assets were snapped up by Frontier Homes. And in late April, credit analysts at Moody's Investors Service (MCG ) warned that a number of large home builders could fall out of compliance with their debt agreements later this year, leaving them at risk of default unless lenders come to their rescue by granting a waiver or reworking their loans. Some builders are so desperate, in fact, that they're even running into the arms of hedge funds to bail them out with fresh loans at high rates and onerous terms.
Yeah! New vacant foreclosure property with weeds/grass knee deep right across the street from me.
An every day reminder of the unrestrained lending that brought on this calmity.
Fuck you you fucking mortgage lending fucktard douchebags. Please to confirm someones income and residence status and a realistic property value before lending them too much money.
FYI, this video is Sacremento and I'm at the other end of the country, but it is telling:
That vid makes me so happy to own a home just down the road in Fresno. Wheeee!!! We're gonna be stuck with that thing for 10 years, blah.
Check out today's Wall Street Journal. They cover a neighborhood in Detroit (nice, middle class) slowly going to shit because of foreclosures. As they say, ain't nobody buying in a neighborhood with 20% or more foreclosed. You don't want that next door.
Yep, that's my street too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
On one side is the house worth $400k max that sold 2 months ago for $490k (kid got a house and walked away with over $25k from the closing and he dont care cuz he's not a citizen and he rents out the basement for 6 people to live in and fuck it if it all goes south since for all I know he didnt even use his real name, cuz why would you if they dont need that info). Would not surprise me if it gets foreclosed someday soon.
Across the street is the recently foreclosed house with two foot unmowed grass and vacant windows.
Two houses over is the recently rehabbed house that was supposed to be a fix and flip, only its a fix and flop. 16 months on the market and now its either going to be foreclosure or a boarding house like the house next to me.
Just heard about another foreclosure 4 houses down.
Boo Yah!
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/busin...=1&oref=slogin
"Many economists have extended their timeline for a housing market recovery in light of growing foreclosures among borrowers with damaged credit and climbing mortgage rates."
Jackson may not be real, but Driggs/Victor/Tetonia, (as well as Rexburg, Alpine, Idaho Falls, etc) are very real, and going like gangbusters.
All I know is that my home in MT is taking a while to sell. It is a 3100sq ft home...2 years old. 1 acre lot. 5br, 3.5 bath. Selling for 289,900. Laurel, MT....15 min from Billings, 40 min to the Beartooth Mtns. Anyone interested?
I live in a bubble.
I live in a hot air balloon.
FKNA Danno...
better watch out, the sky is falling ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark
seriously, doomsday predictions of real estate markets collapsing is insane newspaper fodder. certain markets will tank, but so what? blue chip markets will remain strong. the punters who took on high risk loans and the fly-by-nighters who loaned it to them will get what they deserve. everyone else needs to breath easy, stay the course and wait for the next growth cycle. if you've got the cash, go find some bargains.
the originator of this thread seems interested in saying "fuck the rich" more than anything about real estate.
Bay Area Ca. local observation:
I live in an entry level neighborhood in the East Bay Area. Prices are definately soft and down at least 10%. Dump across the street has been on the market for a year.. Dozens of homes for sale in the neighborhood. At best will be stability. Personally, I see a flat market as far as the eye can see unless rates drop below 5% It's what the Fed wants so I'm really not surprised. Remember, the Fed's prime directive is to fight inflation and house prices had to be reigned in. Most of me is happy about this because I want my young friends to be prosperous and own homes.
Well, I'm actually quite interested in buying something in a year or two when things bottom, but, I guess what I'm really trying to say is "fuck the ex wife" and the property she got.Quote:
Originally Posted by powder11
And, yeah, fuck the rich, too, if they don't invite me to the party.
montanaskier- Got some pics? What town are you in?
Hey I just mailed a package to the "Woods Power Grip" company in Laurel MT.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Article and links about this subject:
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buy...ejpartner=mktw
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/25/bu...agewanted=2&hp
"In a conference call with analysts that lasted a lengthy three hours, Countrywide’s chairman and chief executive, Angelo Mozilo, said home prices were falling “almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression.” He added that because of a large number of homes on the market, the housing sector would continue to shrink until sometime in 2008 and not begin growing until 2009.Shares of Countrywide fell nearly 11 percent, or $3.56, to $30.50, the lowest the stock has been in nearly two years.
What caught investors by the greatest surprise was a stunning rise in delinquencies on home equity loans, lines of credit and second mortgages to homeowners with good, or prime, credit. Until recently, most mortgage industry officials had been saying the problems with defaults would largely be contained to borrowers with weak, or subprime, credit."