Updated homes in my hood still sell. Less desirable that need updates sit for months. Especially at $2mm and above. Lots for new luxury build are selling well.
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Updated homes in my hood still sell. Less desirable that need updates sit for months. Especially at $2mm and above. Lots for new luxury build are selling well.
Redfin, based out of Seattle, has yet to grab any real share of listings there.....a clearly very tech savvy city. They captured less than 1% of market share in 2023 nationally. Younger tech savvy buyers and sellers are still opting to use actual human real estate agents.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Striker
Collusion. We def have some shananigans here in sf block Redfin in the past
I saw a full-page ad from a RE firm in the Big Sky newspaper last week proclaiming that "Big Sky is presenting a buyer's market." Along with a bunch of expensive listings.
"Presenting" made me chuckle.
Lemonade cancelled my homeowner insurance in 95762. Said I needed a new roof. It’s a 50 year concrete roof. Friend in Ukiah got the same cancel notice from a different insurance company. Getting dire. Will be largely a state run insurance fund if it keeps up.
Because it's easier to shrink than to go through CA rate processes. Any increase over 7% can be forced to a trial to justify it by any party, even if the department of insurance doesn't agree. This means that rate increases often take way longer and cost way more to do than in other states. Not to mention the climate changes leading to increased wildfire risk and how hard that is to price/predict.
This is an older article, but illustrates some of the challenges that's leading many to exit the market (slowly or quickly) - https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...ocess-76110864
Bias check: I work for a major insurance corp, so take that as you will.
Just talked with a friend in Alameda. His sister got cancelled in San Leandro after a drone flyover.
“Married into secretive billionaire family” is the polite phrasing. Doesn’t have much taste in homes, here’s one of them. Indoor/Outdoor living that’s usable a couple months a year.Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_pdx
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...7_M75167-79302
I just drove down that street yesterday. I did see a number of tear downs happening. That beach is all public, I am sure she is going to throw some money around trying to get it closed. Good luck bitch.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Get it now, before it's too late!
Quote:
The typical U.S. monthly housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,721 during the four weeks ending March 24, up 10% from a year earlier. Housing payments are at a record high because of the one-two punch of elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices. Mortgage rates remain elevated near 7%, and the median home-sale price is up 5% year over year to roughly $375,000, just about $9,000 shy of June 2022’s record high.
Many sellers are trying to take advantage of rising prices by listing their home. New listings are up 15%, the biggest increase in nearly three years, and the total number of homes for sale is up 6%, the biggest increase in nearly one year.
Increased supply is bringing back some demand, which is the main reason price growth remains robust. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 14% from a month ago, and pending home sales are just 1% lower than they were a year ago, the smallest decline since the beginning of the year.
“High mortgage rates aren’t deterring buyers as much as they were last year; a lot of people want to get in now before prices go up more,” said Miami Redfin agent Rachel Riva.
I really thought that RE was going to reset with rate increases, but I no longer believe it.
I now believe that sub 3% interest rates are going to lock up inventory permanently. There is such a huge number of people who will never, ever have to sell their houses at 2.625% 30 year rates.
I also believe that we're shooting for a no landing scenario- we can't service federal debt at interest rates that will actually control inflation. I think stagflation is the path of least resistance if the US ends up in an economic downturn.
Quote:
I saw a full-page ad from a RE firm in the Big Sky newspaper last week proclaiming that "Big Sky is presenting a buyer's market." Along with a bunch of expensive listings.
"Presenting" made me chuckle.
FWIW I am seeing some BIG developers beginning to pump the brakes on projects for this late summer/fall.
Life goes on and people eventually change jobs or move. This isn't the first environment where interest rates rose, it probably won't be the last. Eventually life catches up with everyone and the majority won't be carrying sub 3%.
Interest rates jumped over 10% between the late 70 and early 80s. I'm sure that sucked at the time for boomers but look at them now, everyone hates them and thinks they rigged the system.
I see no slow down here in Central Oregon. It's full speed ahead with several new SFH and multi home developments going in. Several new apartment/condo complexes being built. RE is local, and right now the RE market is hotter than Arizona in August.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdironRider
It's not that at all, we know they're dumb enough to give their money and votes to break the system. They've already done it twice.
OK but those were most likely planned for, approved and financed last fall. RE market here is red hot as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
This week the same RE company put an ad in Explore Big Sky claiming Bozeman is now a buyers market.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Maybe they know something?:fm:
Cause that RE company is one I was citing.
But, the projects that are being delayed span a wide spectrum in both location and type.
It would be interesting to hear WRG's take on whether Bozeman is a buyer's market.
Everything marked down in my hood. If they don’t sell at these prices there’s a significant leg down coming. Part of this may be can’t get fire insurance even in areas where the chance of wild fire is almost zero.
It's probably just a RE marketing ploy to get buyers interested.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
always like your point of viewQuote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I keep thinking prices will come down in less than desirable places but 10k reduction on something that is overpriced by 100 - 150k is chump change
I was doing stupid financial personal wealth stuff in my head this weekend (too many edibles) and i thought about paying off my mortgage as one a move but why would you pay it off if the interest is right under 3%
the boomers last parting gift to us is trillions of dollars in debt
Inheritance tax should be implemented to take care of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
"Americans have roughly $156 trillion in assets, according to Visual Capitalist, but half of that wealth — $78.1 trillion — belongs to the baby boomers."
:fmicon:
but wait what about my trust fund?Quote:
Originally Posted by skaredshtles
The nation thanks you for your sacrifice.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
It looks like Kalispell home prices have dipped back down from their peak in my passing observation. They are still on the high side, but not too far above pre-covid trend. Fair amount of new building and new subdivisions which is taking pressure off existing housing. Lot of different types of home out there available to choose from.
Whitefish prices don't seem to have budged, mostly driven by limited inventory. Stuff may sit around longer and there are people trying unsuccessfully to slap lipstick on a pig and sell it for a million bucks, but anything good goes for asking.
Lot less building activity and the stuff that's going in is not the kind of stuff that will help ease prices. Don't get me wrong, I know developers are going to build houses for rich people, but I wish they were at least for rich people who are gonna live here. I'd rather see one 1.5m house with a resident family than two $750k houses that just become second homes or vacation rentals.
this weekend I started discussing hypothetically buying a place in Winter Park, so if things are going to crash, let's get it over with so I can buy at the bottom, m'kay?
Can they be sued for false advertising?Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
Anecdotally, I had 3 meetings with former buyers in the past month that were looking to upgrade, despite the change in interest rate that that would entail. Perhaps people are wrapping their head around current rates (that are close to historical averages, just much higher than the recent historical lows)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I'm going to propose to our listing agent a commissions schedule where we pay 6% for an offer at list price, 5% for an offer $10k under list, etc. At our list price, that works out so we share any gap between list and sale price evenly between us, the buyer's agent, and the seller's agent. I feel like that aligns incentives much better than a guaranteed 6% (or 5% or whatever) when we sell.
I'm interested to see how she responds, I suspect she'll find a reason why it's not a good idea, but maybe I'm selling her short.
Why not incentivize your agent the other way around? 3% for list, 4% for $10k over list, 5% @$25k over list, and 6% for >$25,001 over list?
I like this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Pretty sure the chances of selling over list price are worse than our Powerball oddsQuote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Choosing incentives based on "list price" seems odd to me, when that is an arbitrary number that you pick. It's not like "list price" is some objective number that truly defines the value of your house.
The clause I've always thought about is making to the listing agent but a fuse on their contract. As in, "you tell me what the listing price is and you tell me how long you need to sell it".
Our sellers agent came up with the list price through a scientific process of evaluating comps and deep study of the state of the market, i.e., it's an arbitrary number that she came up with and told us she could get for our house. It happens to be a number that we're comfortable with, so we're just asking her to put her money where her mouth is, not just our money where her mouth is.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
Location, price point.Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_pdx
,
2 houses one block from me both sold in less than 5 days this week, both for 20%+ above list. (List 1.29, sold 1.615, list 1.325 sold 1.575.)
Another went on the mrkt last April at 3.39 and finally sold at 2.675 this March after several mark downs from the over reach.
Yeah...easy to game this system...just list at $26k below the price you think it will actually sell for and take home your doubled commission! Just like any time you see someone happy that their agent sold their house "first weekend and above asking" it just makes you question whether their agent mispriced the house.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
Those numbers also stop making sense at higher price points. Obviously they were just randomly thrown out, but on a $1m listing, giving an extra 1% in commission in exchange for $10k in higher price would leave you with LESS money in your pocket.
That said, there is some merit to the idea of bonus commissions. There's a ton of evidence out there that the flat commission system prioritizes quick sales with the least effort. I don't know what would be a good benchmark, but escalating the payment if you beat the benchmark would better align incentives.
Leave it to TGR to find a way to “beat” the real estate game. An incentive to the Buyer’s agent to sell the house for a higher price is exactly why there was a class action lawsuit. In essence you’re attempting to bribe them into prioritizing the deal over their clients interest i.e. their fiduciary agency agreement that they vowed to protect when they licensed. I know none of you believe it exists, but evidently only a few of us do in fact believe in that principle.
Listing price shouldn’t be arbitrary. It’s pretty easy to reach consensus within 2.5% to 5% with a few experienced brokers. From there you pick a strategy based on available inventory vs. active buyers.
While you’re out there re-inventing the wheel, just don’t neglect the things that actually matter like the house being buffed to a shine, staged properly, complete disclosures with all repairs and maintenance records, pro photos, and a complete marketing package that has your house syndicated onto every platform imaginable. That’s typically what gets the house sold. Also, personally I still believe in open houses. Simply because they work.
Hopefully Spokanistan is bouncing back this Spring and you get a great offer Dan. Its certainly possible.
Of course it's not completely arbitrary. But it's far from an objectively specific number. First off, 5% on a 500,000 home is 25,000, hardly chump change. In fact, that kind of variance fits exactly within the incentive structure Dan proposed. I'm not suggesting I agree with his structure, but if "offer over asking" is some kind of goal to pin compensation to, $25k of difference in what you think is a (somewhat) objective number is significant.Quote:
Originally Posted by lowsparkco
My point in calling it arbitrary wasn't that it's some unknowable choice ranging from 200k to 500k, of course it is based on comps as well as strategy based on market conditions. But that doesn't lead to a specific number choice. My agent wanted us to list $25k (or even $50k) below what we wanted to list at, and we ignored his advice. We sold exactly at asking price; maybe we would have sold at the same price regardless of the chosen listing price, or maybe if we listed it for $25k lower we would have sold for "$15k over asking" while still in real world dollars getting $10k less while everyone (or at least the realtor) crowed about how his client got thousands over asking price. [eta: to be fair, maybe had we listed at his suggested price we would have created more action and received even more money than we ultimately did; I don't think so given what I knew about the market at the time, but it is possible]
It's a pet peeve of mine how people pay so much attention to "asking price" and whether something was over or under that, when that doesn't really matter nearly as much as the actual sale price. And whether something goes for over asking or not is a function of where that asking price is, and in fact the "over asking" thing can be gamed by a realtor (sometimes in coordination with a seller but not always). That's what I mean by arbitrary, and that's why I objected to Dan pinning compensation to whether that arbitrary number was hit.