Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

You really think being totally dependent on an employer for housing makes somebody less of a serf? Quite the opposite actually.

Just saying, employee housing is like putting a dying patient on life support. It's not fixing anything and it's really expensive. You really want to pay $50 for that pizza?"

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I don't know about that. I think for a lot of industries, it may help the staffing and affordability challenges. No it doesn't offer the prospects of single family home living or equity creation or financial independence from your employer but to me, those may be secondary issues that prevent addressing the immediate need.

People like us are replaceable. If we've gotta go so that the school or the hospital or the police department can be staffed with those willing to living in company/municipal housing, that may be alright. It has challenges but we gotta try something.

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Cleveland?

:fm:

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Cleveland suburbs. Their shiny new J-112 sailboat does reside on Lake Erie in Cleveland though, that they were able to buy thanks to the lower cost of living. /shrug

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

Their shiny new J-112 sailboat does reside on Lake Erie

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Pics please.

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

I agree. Housing should be extremely plentiful beyond the demand in the market that does not require subsidies or employer owned housing. We need to build a lot more.

How do we get there?

Re:Kevo - Restrictions on Airbnb is a great start.

I’m in full support of that in my town, even though it would benefit me financially to rent my house on Airbnb.

Neighborhoods should have homes not 1 unit hotels in them.

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Amen to that. My subdivision has 45 units and 18 of them are on airbnb and vrbo. It's like that all across the Valley. We have a bountiful supply of housing locked up in STRs. Somewhere between 20 to 25% of all housing in the Valley now is in STRs. Collectively, this has strangled the place and forever changed its character.

Primary residences and locality adjustments seem easily manipulated when WFH.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I don't know about that. I think for a lot of industries, it may help the staffing and affordability challenges. No it doesn't offer the prospects of single family home living or equity creation or financial independence from your employer but to me, those may be secondary issues that prevent addressing the immediate need.

People like us are replaceable. If we've gotta go so that the school or the hospital or the police department can be staffed with those willing to living in company/municipal housing, that may be alright. It has challenges but we gotta try something.

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Ah, actually there's massive knock on effects. Instead of hiring that local nurse, the hospital has to staff with a rotation of traveling nurses who cost much more and then they have to pay for the cost to house them . So now it costs 2 to 3x more than a local nurse. Who pays for this?

All that's happened is the dirt pimps forced an endless spiral of cost increases on everyone else.

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

Cleveland suburbs. Their shiny new J-112 sailboat does reside on Lake Erie in Cleveland though, that they were able to buy thanks to the lower cost of living. /shrug

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Cleveland *and* a boat? Gluttons for punishment, these people. :D

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Amen to that. My subdivision has 45 units and 18 of them are on airbnb and vrbo. It's like that all across the Valley. We have a bountiful supply of housing locked up in STRs. Somewhere between 20 to 25% of all housing in the Valley now is in STRs. Collectively, this has strangled the place and forever changed its character.

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Artificially low interest rates and Airbnb together were the avenue that the dirt pimps whored out our mountain towns to 2/3/4/5/6th home owners from 2018 - 2021.

I’d like to blame tech bros/wfh and boomers retiring as the secondary issue, but it got way too cheap and easy to own a house casually in the mountains.

Fuck Airbnb.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

Pics please.

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I’ll see if I can track one down. I know they were waiting for a slip to open up at CYC and had been keeping it up the lake a bit this summer. It’s got black sails which I’m not a fan of. But I’m also not out buying badass cruiser/racers making those decisions.

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Cleveland *and* a boat? Gluttons for punishment, these people. :D

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I think the preferred nomenclature is “Character-building”. 8 months of winter/winter-adjacent and roadwork balanced out by a summer of sailing on the most volatile Great Lake changes a person. Getting to pay for the pleasure is next level (even if I kinda wished I had a boat with such quick access like that).

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Cleveland *and* a boat? Gluttons for punishment, these people. :D

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I lol'd

It will be possible to run 1 only STR if the owner also lives on the property but It looks like the multiple Ghost hotels won't be able to operate in BC

apparently the situation for high rents/ high prices is even worse in Canada than the USA

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

I lol'd

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It was a good one.

This got me thinking, while every major metro has desirable neighborhoods/locations and you can find expensive stuff anywhere, what does the cost of lakefront living look like in CLE?

This one, while not my style, has 6 beds, 7 baths, is on the Lake and has views of downtown. The cost, a mere $3.1MM.

https://www.cleveland.com/entertainm...-the-week.html

This one is from the Rockefeller-era of Cleveland is a much more budget-friendly $2.2M, but only gets you 3.5 acres of lakefront property, 5 beds and 6.5 baths inside the walled-community of Bratenahl just outside downtown.

https://www.cleveland.com/entertainm...-the-week.html

A steal, really.

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

This one is from the Rockefeller-era of Cleveland is a much more budget-friendly $2.2M, but only gets you 3.5 acres of lakefront property, 5 beds and 6.5 baths inside the walled-community of Bratenahl just outside downtown.

https://www.cleveland.com/entertainm...-the-week.html

A steal, really.

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A buddys parents own a house in california on a 5200sf lot, that is 2200sf, built in the 80s, and quite frankly a fixer upper. It is 1hour from the beach, 4 hours from mountains, in a suburb, and has no views. Its zillow estimate is $3.8mil. I truly think that the people romanticize the west coast culture and opportunities for outdoor recreation, but in reality they live like midwesterners 99% of the time. RE is a mystery.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I'd like to live in that world. Let me see, if I got it right.

Grocery Store employees $50/hr.

Patrollers $60/hr. full time year around

X Ray Techs/EMS/Teachers/Fire/Police $150k+/yr.

Ski Lifts Everywhere. Little satellite villages served by trams.

Probably gonna need a 4 lane highway getting there from the airport. What else did I miss?

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$15 coffee
$10 microbrews
$2 public transit rides that come subsidized with your $1,500 mountain pass
$1 million 950 sq ft 2bed, 1bath starter homes
Private heli-port at the $25k annual membership golf course that you can pay $450 for 18 holes.

I know there are more but this was just off the top of my head.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

$15 coffee
$10 microbrews
$2 public transit rides that come subsidized with your $1,500 mountain pass
$1 million 950 sq ft 2bed, 1bath starter homes
Private heli-port at the $25k annual membership golf course that you can pay $450 for 18 holes.

I know there are more but this was just off the top of my head.

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Seems like we’re not too far off from this reality.

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

Primary residences and locality adjustments seem easily manipulated when WFH.

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1. Tech job — Live in a van, follow the pow
2. VPN thru a server in Palo Alto where your ‘residence’ is and pay someone to fwd mail
3. Profit!

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Originally Posted by frorider

1. Tech job — Live in a van, follow the pow
2. VPN thru a server in Palo Alto where your ‘residence’ is and pay someone to fwd mail
3. Profit!

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https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GBqm...cle_rico_2.jpg

I work with General Counsels of large companies in my job. No less than three of them this year have appeared via zoom while in their kitted out van, generally being nomads with Starlink and occasionally popping into company offices along the way.

The Managing Partner of a large well known multinational firm was doing the same thing.

Crazy times.


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Originally Posted by Art Shirk

I work with General Counsels of large companies in my job. No less than three of them this year have appeared via zoom while in their kitted out van, generally being nomads with Starlink and occasionally popping into company offices along the way.

The Managing Partner of a large well known multinational firm was doing the same thing.

Crazy times.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

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Next time show 'em what's up by joining the call from the captain's chair of Suck My Wake.

Well yeah. they can't afford Real Estate in Mountain Towns. Maybe RV Parks are the answer?

Gonna need more shitters at the rec center. Seriously.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

Switzerland is a great country to live in.

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Where property is also mostly out of reach to most...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/r...ing-homes.html

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

Next time show 'em what's up by joining the call from the captain's chair of Suck My Wake.

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Attachment 477755



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Originally Posted by Toadman

$15 coffee
$10 microbrews
$2 public transit rides that come subsidized with your $1,500 mountain pass
$1 million 950 sq ft 2bed, 1bath starter homes
Private heli-port at the $25k annual membership golf course that you can pay $450 for 18 holes.

I know there are more but this was just off the top of my head.

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That's cheap. Big sky pass is 2700$. Just stopped into lone mtn ranch, know the chef there. They just opened a fully private restaurant. 10k membership. Expensive af.

The 1M condos are 400 sq ft. 950 would be palatial. The one and only they are building is like a 6 figure membership.

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Originally Posted by byates1

That's cheap. Big sky pass is 2700$.

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Member when Moonlight-only passes were something like $400/year and single day lift tix were like $39? I member. What sucks is that it wasn't THAT long ago to justify the wild rate increases ever since the Boyne buyout. I miss those days. :(

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

I think the preferred nomenclature is “Character-building”. 8 months of winter/winter-adjacent and roadwork balanced out by a summer of sailing on the most volatile Great Lake changes a person. Getting to pay for the pleasure is next level (even if I kinda wished I had a boat with such quick access like that).

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The better half grew up racing at the CYC since her dad worked as a race marshal in the summer when he wasn't teaching at Lakewood. She has some crazy stories, like when her and all the other 12 year olds lost their boats when a storm came out of nowhere. Lucky no one died by the sound of it.

PS, Hilarious that people actually think that dirt pimps somehow pump up real estate prices. I wish I had some sort of superpower (that I would do something better with), but it's just basic supply and demand, and no, we're just not that good at increasing demand like that. Gold, Jerry, Gold!

Attachment 477775

Dirt pimps would never advertise in in-flight magazines to drive demand and sell homes in desirable places...at least not within a couple pages of each other this November.

Attachment 477777Attachment 477778

Unsolicited add on my FB feed. There's not much for sale in the wilderness area but a pretty classic example of a realtor advertising a cool place as an amenity to buying stuff nearby. Maybe considered dirt pimps pumping up an area...?

Attachment 477850

Pimpin ain't easy. Don't take it personally...we could probably rip on any career if we were in thread devoted to it.

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Originally Posted by goldenboy

The better half grew up racing at the CYC since her dad worked as a race marshal in the summer when he wasn't teaching at Lakewood. She has some crazy stories, like when her and all the other 12 year olds lost their boats when a storm came out of nowhere. Lucky no one died by the sound of it.

PS, Hilarious that people actually think that dirt pimps somehow pump up real estate prices. I wish I had some sort of superpower (that I would do something better with), but it's just basic supply and demand, and no, we're just not that good at increasing demand like that. Gold, Jerry, Gold!

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And on the demand side, everyone loves to blame California (or Seattle, or Boulder, texass etc.) money for driving up prices, but on the supply side, I've been here 15 years and have yet to see a "California money not welcome" sign anywhere.

I think that Switzerland article was very relevant...America is quickly becoming a "post-ownership" society as far as homes go. The supply isn't there, and what is available will be snatched up by corporations who will rent it back to people.

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Originally Posted by goldenboy

PS, Hilarious that people actually think that dirt pimps somehow pump up real estate prices. I wish I had some sort of superpower (that I would do something better with), but it's just basic supply and demand, and no, we're just not that good at increasing demand like that.

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Yeah, we get it. You're small fry compared to the players on the top rung over at Sotheby's. You don't do lunch with the billionaires who move on mountain towns and scoop up huge tracts of farmland for land banking. You don't hang with the guys who build golf course mansion communities on that farmland. You don't have that sort of pull. You aren't in the puffy coat mafia. You can't call on contacts in the publishing biz and get annual feature articles to pump your market.

Supply and demand. Please. The real estate development/finance complex fucked the economy in 2008 with too much supply and now its fucked it with too little supply. One thing never changes, dirt pimps can somehow figure out how to get top dollar either fucking way!

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Originally Posted by yeahman

I think that Switzerland article was very relevant...America is quickly becoming a "post-ownership" society as far as homes go. The supply isn't there, and what is available will be snatched up by corporations who will rent it back to people.

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How many Americans actually own their houses? I feel like home ownership for most is actually a cycle of buying/refi/heloc/sell/buy/refi/heloc without ever paying the damn thing off.

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

How many Americans actually own their houses? I feel like home ownership for most is actually a cycle of buying/refi/heloc/sell/buy/refi/heloc without ever paying the damn thing off.

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Paying off your mortgage is kind of a separate topic. But I will say this, if you buy for 100k and sell for 200k and keep the profit, you damn sure own it. Otherwise some other bastard would be pocketing that money.

The share of US houses without a mortgage hit a record high recently.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles...20decade%20ago.

40% of houses are ownedf free and clear.

It's hard to imagine people locked into crazy low rates paying off their mortgage early though. You can earn double your mortgage APR in a treasury money market fund.

There are certain circumstances where there is a value to being mortgage free, like gaming means tested anything while early retired but no reason to pay it off while still working as best I can tell.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

The share of US houses without a mortgage hit a record high recently.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles...20decade%20ago.

40% of houses are ownedf free and clear.

It's hard to imagine people locked into crazy low rates paying off their mortgage early though. You can earn double your mortgage APR in a treasury money market fund.

There are certain circumstances where there is a value to being mortgage free, like gaming means tested anything while early retired but no reason to pay it off while still working as best I can tell.

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I have a 15yr @ 1.875%. I've got 13yrs left and pay a few hundred dollars extra per month. Should be paid off in around 11yrs. Does this make the most financial sense? No, and I know that. The idea of having no payment is worth it to me. Being able to stop paying 3yrs early is worth more the few hundred/thousand dollars in interest I might gain.

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Originally Posted by Conundrum

Dirt pimps would never advertise in in-flight magazines to drive demand and sell homes in desirable places...at least not within a couple pages of each other this November.

Attachment 477777Attachment 477778

Pimpin ain't easy. Don't take it personally...we could probably rip on any career if we were in thread devoted to it.

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Jennifer Shay advertises a private office.

Is that a hint? She seems nice.

Also wants to build relationships? Nah. That gets complicated. I’m just interested in a transaction.

PS. Her company has umlauts. I’m already interested in that.

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Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Member when Moonlight-only passes were something like $400/year and single day lift tix were like $39? I member. What sucks is that it wasn't THAT long ago to justify the wild rate increases ever since the Boyne buyout. I miss those days. :(

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$ 299.00 season 1 and $ 39 a day, 20 years ago today we were trying to get everything ready to open and didn't have jack shit for snow although more than right now.

The BSIA agreement 2 years later was the start of the end for affordable Big Sky.

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Originally Posted by phatty

I have a 15yr @ 1.875%. I've got 13yrs left and pay a few hundred dollars extra per month. Should be paid off in around 11yrs. Does this make the most financial sense? No, and I know that. The idea of having no payment is worth it to me. Being able to stop paying 3yrs early is worth more the few hundred/thousand dollars in interest I might gain.

Sent from my SM-T733 using Tapatalk

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Consider fully funding a Roth before paying down mtg. You've got a great rate, don't let the note holder off the hook early! Some debt is good and your's is stellar.

There are many good reasons to pay off a mortgage but less so in a rising rate environment.

I think Amazon Prime is also contributing to the run up in non-urban/suburban real estate. Its like the Daytona 500 of Brown Santa around here.

And Karens...the fucking Karens. They really think it is a good idea to Special Assess our HOA to engage in a legal battle in an attempt to prevent a small apartment building complex that appears to be fully compliant and has received preliminary approval from the County. Here is the list of what the Scared Whites are afraid off.

West Nile from storm water collection, kids drowning in the storm water run off, headlights shining to there homes, residents catching all the fish out of our ponds, the unsavory poors that live in apartments, pit bulls. And so it goes.

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Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner

Consider fully funding a Roth before paying down mtg. You've got a great rate, don't let the note holder off the hook early! Some debt is good and your's is stellar.

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Yeah, paying off a mortgage at that rate early is the last thing you should do. You can get triple that rate in a money market account even. Then have mortgage payments deducted from the money market account.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I think Amazon Prime is also contributing to the run up in non-urban/suburban real estate. Its like the Daytona 500 of Brown Santa around here.

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It's a huge deal. Back in the 90's I'd have a list of stuff that I needed to buy the next time I was in Denver, because I couldn't buy it here- and it was usually a big list. Everyone had a Denver list. There is no question that you had to "want it more" to live here back then. Everything is just a click away now, it just takes 5 days to get Amazon deliveries instead of hours or a day or two in the city.