Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I know of service businesses that are massively understaffed. The service levels are going to be disgustingly low.

We will see. The "I bought a house in the mountains but I couldn't park at the ski area, the lift lines were redic, we couldn't find anywhere to eat, the grocery was out of food and it took 4 hours to drive home" story must get old eventually.

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A friend of mine's family did the Jackson Hole/Yellowstone vacay last summer and told him it was the worst vacation they've ever had. Specifically, they were amazed people would pay so much just for awesome views and the chance of seeing a moose or bison. The place is beautiful but everything else sucked, in their opinion. Prices were high, service was poor and waits were long. Traffic was bad, parking unavailable, etc. It simply wasn't worth the hassles. The price of activities....ridiculous. They were utterly floored by the idea that rich people pay $800 for a day of trout fishing and that's considered normal here.

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At some point, a place on the lake in Kansas with a funded 401k, a bit of cheese in the bank and a good night's sleep that comes from not freaking out about money starts to look enticing.

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Dunno about Kansas but yes this looks to be my path.

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Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

The WFH boom is already dropping off. Many newer or hipper tech and tech adjacent companies are calling back their super lax policies. Employees not able to be 100% remote. Must be in the office 2-3 days a week etc. There are people who moved here 2 years ago from Austin/San Jose/etc who are not allowed to be fully remote anymore.

That being said the cat is out of the bag so to speak and yes there is a crazy number of remote workers now. I really really don't see a time where techie remote workers are going to want to live in Wibaux or similar.

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100% this. I work in tech and am one of the WFH people, though I live in the Seattle suburbs and have since before things went crazy. As WG said, super lax WFH policies are already drying up. My company will force all new hires hired near an office to be in there 3 days a week starting the new year. Also, pay is starting to get adjusted. If you want to move to a "lower cost area" away from SF, Seattle, etc. then your pay will be adjusted down to your new market. Also you will still be required in the office for 3 days per quarter and, if you move away from the office, these office visits will be on your own dime.

To think the Gen Z/Millennial WFH crowd is going to love en masse to depressed Midwest towns in the middle of nowhere is laughable. There is literally zero appeal for an urban techie.

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Originally Posted by phatty

To think the Gen Z/Millennial WFH crowd is going to love en masse to depressed Midwest towns in the middle of nowhere is laughable. There is literally zero appeal for an urban techie.

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Our friends daughter just graduated as a Doctor and moved to Kansas City to be with her guy, as he like the cost of living, work/life balance they have. So a small town, maybe not, but larger metro areas that has everything for 30% off, maybe.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

We will see. The "I bought a house in the mountains but I couldn't park at the ski area, the lift lines were redic, we couldn't find anywhere to eat, the grocery was out of food and it took 4 hours to drive home" story must get old eventually.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

A friend of mine's family did the Jackson Hole/Yellowstone vacay last summer and told him it was the worst vacation they've ever had. Specifically, they were amazed people would pay so much just for awesome views and the chance of seeing a moose or bison. The place is beautiful but everything else sucked, in their opinion. Prices were high, service was poor and waits were long. Traffic was bad, parking unavailable, etc....

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That's the reality of it, and it really bums me out just how played out all the more established places have become. After returning to Big Sky Spring before last, I couldn't get over how much it had changed in the last few years. The view off my old back porch has been mostly ruined by developers (not condos, but big metal buildings and construction lots). "Mud season" used to be DEAD but the trails by town were jam packed. There was a constant stream of traffic. Again, this was during what used to be off-season.

I'm not gonna lie. It kind of pissed me off because when I lived there and was attempting to figure out a business, you had to jump through a bunch of hoops with various little bureaucracies with every little group clinging to certain levels of control. Zoning was one of the biggest challenges. Either way, both myself and countless others had multiple business ideas completely shot down before they could even see the light of day. We're talking small businesses with minimal footprints compared to what's going on now. NOW, these assholes must've said "screw it" because in the very locations I saw others get their good and community beneficial ideas rejected for, there are now big construction material plants and all sorts of other unsightly things. Now this is not at all unique to Big Sky, but one of the things that increased over the years was how if you were part of a certain group of elites, you could get approval, but if you were not, then it was "piss off, peasant." It's my understanding that some of these folks are present in both Jackson and BS. 10 years ago, there's no way in hell any of these industrial/commercial sites would've gotten approval. There's effectively been a hostile takeover within and tech bros willing to pay whatever doesn't help matters. A tech couple bought MY home there. Haha. Of course prices are now more than double/triple than back then FML.

It ain't what it used to be, that's for sure. :(

Handwringing about WFHers taking over the midwest cracks me up. I think it'll be a long time before that's an issue, why not focus on the hundreds of towns that actually are being affected?

You know what's laughable? Thinking that a majority of the population can afford to live somewhere cool, irrespective of their age and whether the WFH.

I'm guessing the people that say others would hate say rural Kansas are the same people that say they hate Florida. I bet they have never been there.

You know what people really hate? Being broke AF and having no hope.

Get out a bit. Talk to people. Go in that shitty looking diner in the middle of nowhere.

See who is happy. Chances are it will have fuck all to do with where their home is or how nice it is. For us, it may have something to do with skiing but even that isn't a secret recipe

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Our friends daughter just graduated as a Doctor and moved to Kansas City to be with her guy, as he like the cost of living, work/life balance they have. So a small town, maybe not, but larger metro areas that has everything for 30% off, maybe.

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KC is nothing like the towns we're talking about. Of course lower cost metros that have amenities will be able to draw people. See Boise, SLC and before them Denver, Austin and Phoenix.

Assuming you can still make your Silicon valley wage, I think there are a lot of people who will happily live in the midwest. The FIRE people can save 80% of their income in a LCL area and retire in their early 30's. That's an appealing tradeoff, especially if you aren't into any outdoor sports, etc anyway.

I lived in Kansas for a stint and it sucked, for many many reasons. No way I would willingly choose to live there unless I had fallen on very hard times.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

You know what people really hate? Being broke AF and having no hope.

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How many broke AF WFHers do you know? There ain't many. The broke AF people these towns might appeal to are the ones who would need a job close or in town, which don't exist. Which is why the town is doing anything that could bring people in.

Shit, Bentonville was at the forefront of the "pay people to move here" thing 6 or 7 years ago if I'm not mistaken. I'm sure SOME people moved there but not many AND they have more MTB trails than pretty much anywhere AND I think they actually have some stores, a Whole Foods, etc.

What will keep people from moving to super rural Eastern MT, NE, KS, etc won't be the lack of sports or not....it's lack of views and lack of creature comforts. Making 6 figures and buying a $120k house is still not enough to make it ok to have to drive 2+ hours to any actual stores.

Not sure how different it is in CB, but lots of people move here for the views and amenities and could care less about how good the skiing is.

Edit to add: I think the prairie country is beautiful but I don't live there. Maybe when I am 60 years old. I just don't see 30something year old upper level tech bros moving to the middle of nowhere to save some money. Very few will do that IMO unless already extremely introverted or they grew up on a ranch and want to return to that life somewhat. The value system for younger generations is all about enjoying their lives as much as possible NOW. Far fewer are living like our parents where they just want to save save save and live somewhere crappy so they can buy a condo in Boca and a Class C when they are 62 years old.

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Originally Posted by goldenboy

Assuming you can still make your Silicon valley wage, I think there are a lot of people who will happily live in the midwest. The FIRE people can save 80% of their income in a LCL area and retire in their early 30's. That's an appealing tradeoff, especially if you aren't into any outdoor sports, etc anyway.

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The wage arbitrage is going away or already has. Most companies are adjusting pay if you move away. For a niche, they might like that. But why do that in Kansas when you can do the same thing in Bali or Mexico? Are there instagramable coffee shops? If not, good luck getting the average young tech worker there.

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Originally Posted by TBS

See https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/...te-in-america/

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Well, I guess I have a nice zip code to humble brag about then. But within that 97703 are some normalish neighborhoods surrounded by the likes of Tetherow, North Rim, Westgate and Discovery Park which drive up that median price. But a far cry from some of those other zip codes like Ketchum and Telluride.

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Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

Shit, Bentonville was at the forefront of the "pay people to move here" thing 6 or 7 years ago if I'm not mistaken. I'm sure SOME people moved there but not many AND they have more MTB trails than pretty much anywhere AND I think they actually have some stores, a Whole Foods, etc.

What will keep people from moving to super rural Eastern MT, NE, KS, etc won't be the lack of sports or not....it's lack of views and lack of creature comforts. Making 6 figures and buying a $120k house is still not enough to make it ok to have to drive 2+ hours to any actual stores.

Not sure how different it is in CB, but lots of people move here for the views and amenities and could care less about how good the skiing is.

Edit to add: I think the prairie country is beautiful but I don't live there. Maybe when I am 60 years old. I just don't see 30something year old upper level tech bros moving to the middle of nowhere to save some money. Very few will do that IMO unless already extremely introverted or they grew up on a ranch and want to return to that life somewhat. The value system for younger generations is all about enjoying their lives as much as possible NOW. Far fewer are living like our parents where they just want to save save save and live somewhere crappy so they can buy a condo in Boca and a Class C when they are 62 years old.

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What's not being mentioned is the health care. If you are close to retirement and maybe want to jump ship a few years earlier because the math works out to move to Podunk, USA, then you better have really good health because that farm doctor with the bare minimum equipment is probably not going to cut it if you need some serious medical care.

Heck, even here in Bend, St Charles is a 2nd tier hospital with 2nd rate care. No offense to the medical staff and nurses, but it just doesn't compare to the hospitals up in Seattle or Portland.

My dad had a shit heart, so I tell me wife if I have heart attack to drive me the extra 15 minutes to the big Sharp hospital in SD and not the little one here in town. Those fuckers kill people.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

<snip>
I'm guessing the people that say others would hate say rural Kansas are the same people that say they hate Florida. I bet they have never been there.

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I've been to both and they both suck. But I sure am glad 25 million people *don't* think those places suck.

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You know what people really hate? Being broke AF and having no hope.

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Hard to argue with that.

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Get out a bit. Talk to people. Go in that shitty looking diner in the middle of nowhere.

See who is happy. Chances are it will have fuck all to do with where their home is or how nice it is. For us, it may have something to do with skiing but even that isn't a secret recipe

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Yep - it always impresses me how miserable people can claim to be even in the face of being in, arguably, the best time in the history of humanity.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

What's not being mentioned is the health care. If you are close to retirement and maybe want to jump ship a few years earlier because the math works out to move to Podunk, USA, then you better have really good health because that farm doctor with the bare minimum equipment is probably not going to cut it if you need some serious medical care.

Heck, even here in Bend, St Charles is a 2nd tier hospital with 2nd rate care. No offense to the medical staff and nurses, but it just doesn't compare to the hospitals up in Seattle or Portland.

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Yep. My dad recently moved over to seacoast NH (still north of the bridge, but those environs) and it saved his life when he had a heart issue. They were able to get him in and do a stent in a day or two whereas he probably wouldn't have even gotten to diagnosis in the rural area he was previously.

6 figures? What's the first number?

Is you think it's all gonna be the same in 20 years, rewind to 2003 and let me know if you saw this all coming.

The WFHrs that can't really explain to me what they do besides laptop, PJs, "hoping on" every now and then better keep their heads on a swivel.

I'm not saying that those that can afford it won't continue living wherever the fuck Lumberg will let them, I'm saying that, in the future, the percentage of the population to which that applies may decrease for a few reasons.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

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Originally Posted by Toadman

What's not being mentioned is the health care. If you are close to retirement and maybe want to jump ship a few years earlier because the math works out to move to Podunk, USA, then you better have really good health because that farm doctor with the bare minimum equipment is probably not going to cut it if you need some serious medical care.

Heck, even here in Bend, St Charles is a 2nd tier hospital with 2nd rate care. No offense to the medical staff and nurses, but it just doesn't compare to the hospitals up in Seattle or Portland.

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Ha ha. Bend is a big city compared to most ski towns. Try using in-network physicians in a red state rural area that's openly hostile to Obamacare.

Like I said a while back: the Teton Valley is a great place to retire to, if you use a private jet to access your healthcare.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

My dad had a shit heart, so I tell me wife if I have heart attack to drive me the extra 15 minutes to the big Sharp hospital in SD and not the little one here in town. Those fuckers kill people.

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Underrated advice for folks who live in paradise. Usually the health care is sub par at best, worth the drive to a big city facility rather than seeing the Podiatrist who’s staffing the ER for the day.

"My house had a great view before all these other houses were built around it"

Says the person who built that house in front of another house that used to have a great view.

"When I moved here, there were hardly any people here"

Says the one of millions of people that moved to a place to get away from all the people.

I just can't deal with it anymore. I'm going to buy an Outside magazine and see where the next best place to live is and move there before everyone else.

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Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

Shit, Bentonville was at the forefront of the "pay people to move here" thing 6 or 7 years ago if I'm not mistaken. I'm sure SOME people moved there but not many .

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I visited the area last year and spent some time with all old college friend who grew up there. He would disagree; MANY people have moved there in recent years. The traffic snarls were pretty noticeable even to a first time visitor like me, and he reported that they were pretty new. That area is exploding like Bozeman.

I think AI is going to take those WFH jobs before too long anyway. Then those of us who work with our hands will be laughing all the way to the bank, at least until the formerly employed tech folks run out of money to hire us to remodel their houses. We're all connected.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

"My house had a great view before all these other houses were built around it"

Says the person who built that house in front of another house that used to have a great view.

"When I moved here, there were hardly any people here"

Says the one of millions of people that moved to a place to get away from all the people.

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Should be in the "things that amuse you" thread, don'tchya think? :D

Let's face it - shit's changing just like it always did, but as rapidly aging, curmudgeonly old fucks, we're less and less able to deal with it.

Our kids will do the same when they're middle aged.

And so it goes...

6 figures? What's the first number?

Is you think it's all gonna be the same in 20 years, rewind to 2003 and let me know if you saw this all coming.

The WFHrs that can't really explain to me what they do besides laptop, PJs, "hoping on" every now and then better keep their heads on a swivel.

I'm not saying that those that can afford it won't continue living wherever the fuck Lumberg will let them, I'm saying that, in the future, the percentage of the population to which that applies may decrease for a few reasons.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

6 figures? What's the first number?

Is you think it's all gonna be the same in 20 years, rewind to 2003 and let me know if you saw this all coming.

The WFHrs that can't really explain to me what they do besides laptop, PJs, "hoping on" every now and then better keep their heads on a swivel.

I'm not saying that those that can afford it won't continue living wherever the fuck Lumberg will let them, I'm saying that, in the future, the percentage of the population to which that applies may decrease for a few reasons.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

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You havin' a stroke? :D

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Originally Posted by climberevan

I think AI is going to take those WFH jobs before too long anyway. Then those of us who work with our hands will be laughing all the way to the bank, at least until the formerly employed tech folks run out of money to hire us to remodel their houses. We're all connected.

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That was the theme of the recent South Park special. The last handyman in town becomes obscenely wealthy as there's no one left who "knows how to do shit" and he's taking bids for his time.

Already happened in Jackson. I know a guy who repairs hot tubs there and he makes more than double per hour what an airplane mechanic makes in a normal economy. Wrap your head around that! To get a hot tub pump swapped out in Jhole, you'll be paying around $200/hr for labor, a huge markup on parts and maybe waiting a couple weeks. Basic tub maintenance is around $1800/year for weekly cleaning and chems so he can subcontract the grunt work at $30/hr and still be rolling in the cash.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

That was the theme of the recent South Park special. The last handyman in town becomes obscenely wealthy as there's no one left who "knows how to do shit" and he's taking bids for his time.

Already happened in Jackson. I know a guy who repairs hot tubs there and he makes more than double what an airplane mechanic makes in a normal economy.

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Hahaha. That was a REALLY great episode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcoGzT9QrTI

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

That was the theme of the recent South Park special. The last handyman in town becomes obscenely wealthy as there's no one left who "knows how to do shit" and he's taking bids for his time.

Already happened in Jackson. I know a guy who repairs hot tubs there and he makes more than double per hour what an airplane mechanic makes in a normal economy. Wrap your head around that! To get a hot tub pump swapped out in Jhole, you'll be paying around $200/hr for labor, a huge markup on parts and maybe waiting a couple weeks. Basic tub maintenance is around $1800/year for weekly cleaning and chems so he can subcontract the grunt work at $30/hr and still be rolling in the cash.

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I'm seriously considering this out on SJI. Only drawback is I would have to take calls from Seattle techies to work on their weekend houses. But firing clients is a favorite past time of mine so I could make it work.

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Originally Posted by climberevan

I visited the area last year and spent some time with all old college friend who grew up there. He would disagree; MANY people have moved there in recent years. The traffic snarls were pretty noticeable even to a first time visitor like me, and he reported that they were pretty new. That area is exploding like Bozeman.

I think AI is going to take those WFH jobs before too long anyway. Then those of us who work with our hands will be laughing all the way to the bank, at least until the formerly employed tech folks run out of money to hire us to remodel their houses. We're all connected.

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Gotta love the "I work with my hands" superiority complex that assumes none of us have other skillsets. WFH is here to stay, but as others have mentioned, making Silicon Valley pay not in SV is likely to be a thing of the past. That said, it's a better model for plenty of jobs, so count on it continuing.

Superiority complexes from desk jockeys who happen to work trades, no less.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

What's not being mentioned is the health care. If you are close to retirement and maybe want to jump ship a few years earlier because the math works out to move to Podunk, USA, then you better have really good health because that farm doctor with the bare minimum equipment is probably not going to cut it if you need some serious medical care.

Heck, even here in Bend, St Charles is a 2nd tier hospital with 2nd rate care. No offense to the medical staff and nurses, but it just doesn't compare to the hospitals up in Seattle or Portland.

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Parents have had great care at St Charles and the overall billing fuckery has been ok (by US standards. Obviously we’re not a 1st world nation in this dept).

You want really shitty, try Barton in Tahoe. 3X the cost, 1/3 the quality. . Fortunately we have options within a 45 min drive.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

I'm seriously considering this out on SJI. Only drawback is I would have to take calls from Seattle techies to work on their weekend houses. But firing clients is a favorite past time of mine so I could make it work.

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Some rich lady living in a $6-7M house on 3 acres tried to haggle on a $600 repair bill. He waived the bill and terminated her maintenance contract on the spot. He was like, fuck it, I can replace you faster than you can replace me.

My mom was a reallly good dressmaker and her prices were actualy pretty cheap, but the only person who ever complained was the wife of a guy who owned a doz building supply stores so she obviously had the $$$$

but my mom fired her

Don't think the Healthcare thing is just for the Olds. I'm 48 (only kind of old) and had a heart attack while running. Luckily I live less than 10 minutes from a great hospital who just happened to have a world class intervention cardiologist on call that day. I was back home 2 days later. If the ambulance ride was 30 minutes, instead of 10, no guarantee that I'm still here with no complications.

I’m sitting here chuckling at the Midwest bashing in this thread. I’m loving my life here in Northern Wisconsin. I broke 100+ days of skiing last year and the fly fishing here is incredible. Very casual and laidback lifestyle that I am loving.

Don’t get me wrong, I loved every minute of my almost 40 years in Montana. But I love my life in this area just as much. I guess it’s just a matter of perspective.



Sent from my island using TGR Forums

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Originally Posted by Harry

I’m sitting here chuckling at the Midwest bashing in this thread. I’m loving my life here in Northern Wisconsin. I broke 100+ days of skiing last year and the fly fishing here is incredible. Very casual and laidback lifestyle that I am loving.

Don’t get me wrong, I loved every minute of my almost 40 years in Montana. But I love my life in this area just as much. I guess it’s just a matter of perspective.

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And I suspect you are, generally, a pretty happy person.

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Originally Posted by Harry

I’m sitting here chuckling at the Midwest bashing in this thread. I’m loving my life here in Northern Wisconsin. I broke 100+ days of skiing last year and the fly fishing here is incredible. Very casual and laidback lifestyle that I am loving.

Don’t get me wrong, I loved every minute of my almost 40 years in Montana. But I love my life in this area just as much. I guess it’s just a matter of perspective.



Sent from my island using TGR Forums

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That’s a helluva streamer jammed under your front seat

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

And I suspect you are, generally, a pretty happy person.

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and wow its almost like there are alot of not very happy people on TGR which is something that has been apparent to me

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

and wow its almost like there are alot of not very happy people on TGR which is something that has been apparent to me

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I suspect for most, it's a schtick.