Real Estate Crash thread

For sake of arguing, because it's TGR, $2million / 12 units is $166k per. Is that a fair guess? I mean I thought that affordable should be outside of town to make....ya know...affordable but I guess that's not where the Dr. and Lawyers want to live?

https://www.440wkelly.com/?_ga=2.177...870.1690656365

If you can't build that for $500/sq. you suck...but Shaw kinda does suck. Or look at it another way. Assuming their is no profit, that's a $12millon project. Or buy this place https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card or is that not nice enough for the "Missing Middle"?

Or this place https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

How much is the subsidy? Who's paying? Is there a 24hr bus from Alpine yet?

You definitely know much more about costing than I do, but the fact is that’s it’s absurd here, every which way.
$755k for Virginian Lane Condo…awesome.

I agree with all of that. It's the same everywhere. My bitch is with the execution of "Affordable Housing". The devil is in the details and "So noble...at and cost" crowd gets involved and you end up with something that isn't affordable and provides little social benefit to anyone other than the keep on keepin on powers that be and a handful of residents of the projects.

Contractors don’t price their builds including land costs. So at the end of the day yes, the land value does drive up the final sale price, but it’s really just a factor of labor prices and finish levels. $1000/sf is probably about average in Jackson given the clientele…. We had a project fall through the cracks with a client that was going to be more in the $1300-1500/sf, the finishes and amenities they were trying to pack in was insane.

For true workforce/affordable housing it can absolutely be done, even here in Jackson, at $500-750/sf. The problem is there’s no money to subsidize the land value. And you ain’t getting marble countertops at that price point.


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$1500 a square foot?
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

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Property overview
Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom homes, (house and a guest house) presents an incredible opportunity for those seeking a peaceful retreat on 1.21 sprawling acres. With an unfinished basement offering the potential for two additional bedrooms and another full bath in each home, this property is brimming with untapped potential. Short term rentals are allowed.

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There is something about that listing that doesn't make sense but a bit nuts either way. Its crazy to me that I almost moved to Drictor circa 2000 for housing affordability and powder but the work prospects were bleak. I moved to Denver instead.

What are some ballpark wages/bid rates for trades in Jackson?

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$1300-1500/sf, the finishes and amenities they were trying to pack in was insane.

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Been there. It is defiantly an exercise in wasting money. Nice fancy, difficult ways to do everything. Everyone from the customer to the subs are trying to make everything more expensive. Its so stupid. I hate those projects.

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Originally Posted by Name Redacted

WFH turned that concept on its head though.

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In a lot of places, yes. You still need good Internet for most WFH jobs, so until Starlink became widely available, that was still an issue. I don't know if coverage is universal in the US at this point or not.

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Originally Posted by anotherVTskibum

In a lot of places, yes. You still need good Internet for most WFH jobs, so until Starlink became widely available, that was still an issue. I don't know if coverage is universal in the US at this point or not.

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It is not.

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Originally Posted by zion zig zag

$1500 a square foot?
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

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That's how we do here. Gouge out all you can during the good times and fuck the future.

Just 12 years ago the banks were auctioning off 3000sq.ft. golf course McMansions for $500k

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

That's how we do here. Gouge out all you during the good times and fuck the future.

Just 12 years ago the banks were auctioning off 3000sq.ft. golf course McMansions for $500k

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Hopefully history repeats.

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Originally Posted by east or bust

Hopefully history repeats.

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History *always* repeats...

For sale: Tetonia, ID. Tiny home. $500,000.

Attachment 466218

Land not included...

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

For sale: Tetonia, ID. Tiny home. $500,000.

Attachment 466218

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"Excellent riverfront access."

So awesome. I solace in the fact that it's more fucked somewhere else. Unless you live in Jackson and Aspen then you are either just holding on or looking to be subsidized. But hey, you can be proud that everywhere else sees your model as the future.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

https://www.440wkelly.com/?_ga=2.177...870.1690656365

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That place has a very EZ commute to The Waxroom.

Just sayin….



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Rental vacancy rate at 5 yr high. Rents down .7% yoy.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

That's how we do here. Gouge out all you can during the good times and fuck the future.

Just 12 years ago the banks were auctioning off 3000sq.ft. golf course McMansions for $500k

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Someone told me that there was once 52 foreclosures up for sale in Teton Springs at one time. I was told that at the time the houses were selling in the sub $400k range. Those houses today are all well over $1.2MM.

Meanwhile, the housing stock here is increasing faster than almost anywhere else in the US-

"Wasatch County, Utah, was the fastest-growing county; its housing stock increased by 7.7% between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022, followed by Rockwall County, Texas (7.4%), and St. Johns County, Florida (6.6%). Jasper County, South Carolina, and Teton County, Idaho were tied for fourth with 6.4%."

6.4% increase year over year 2021-2022 and I'd imagine it increased at least that much again in 2022-2023. My neighborhood, which was mostly stagnant from 2009 to 2020, has probably doubled it's housing stock since 2020.

I talked to a builder acquaintance recently- he's building 4-5 houses at the moment. He said not a single house is financed. Maybe things are a bit different this time?

We are in a strange era where cash is not actually cash, it's a loan by some other contrivance.

Wanna 'splain that? I'm familiar with cash offer financing. But cash is cash and leverage is leverage.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

For sale: Tetonia, ID. Tiny home. $500,000.

Attachment 466218

Land not included...

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i see a new thread in this... Shitter with a view

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Originally Posted by Kevo

I talked to a builder acquaintance recently- he's building 4-5 houses at the moment. He said not a single house is financed. Maybe things are a bit different this time?

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Yeah, they sure are. Now prices are inflated beyond all reason because everyone thinks a house will pay for itself in 10 years. Price is no object when investors believe they are buying guaranteed rapid appreciation and fat passive income. It bears repeating: we have a housing crisis because there's literally 50 times as many STRs as LTRs. Approximately 25% of all the homes in Teton County, Idaho are STRs! In Jackson, 70% of sales are sold for cash to investors. This is what happens when the dirt pimps are in charge.

And you know who is going to get royally screwed in a down market? The desperate workers buying these small craptastic homes in shitty locations for twice what they are really worth.

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Originally Posted by skiSilent_skiDeep

i see a new thread in this... Shitter with a view

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This was the view from our shitter in Switzerland recently:

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Yeah, they sure are. Now prices are inflated beyond all reason because everyone thinks a house will pay for itself in 10 years. Price is no object when investors believe they are buying guaranteed rapid appreciation and fat passive income. It bears repeating: we have a housing crisis because there's literally 50 times as many STRs as LTRs. Approximately 25% of all the homes in Teton County, Idaho are STRs! In Jackson, 70% of sales are sold for cash to investors. This is what happens when the dirt pimps are in charge.

And you know who is going to get royally screwed in a down market? The desperate workers buying these small craptastic homes in shitty locations for twice what they are really worth.

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I wonder what the percentage of STRs in TCW is?

We’re house sitting at a place midway up Snow King and decided to drive to the top for shits and gigs, probably half the houses up there had rental vehicles in the driveway.

We’ve house sat a number of times at this place over the last 2.5 years and I’ve never known, because the house is outfitted with all the typical Jackson toys (bike, skis, boats), that these people only live here for like 3-4 months a year. Rest of the time they live in their primary residence out of state, only difference is they don’t rent it out when they’re gone.

Honest question. Assuming no capital appreciation, how does an STR pencil for an investor?

Can you gross 50k? 100k? On a million dollar property? That's what a 4/4 is going for in my hood. There are 10+ people there from the Front Range before the paint dries.

At lower rates and lower valuations, every Larry and Linda Lakewood was doing it to pay for there #IgotaplaceinFraser. But now? I don't get it.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

At lower rates and lower valuations, every Larry and Linda Lakewood was doing it to pay for there #IgotaplaceinFraser. But now? I don't get it.

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Airbnb's dirty little secret is that less than 5% of the hosts control over a third of all listed properties. The top 1% control a staggering amount of homes. It's become a front for real estate investment/management companies.

If your community has a good track record of appreciating home prices and some tourists, these pros will swarm onto it like flies on shit.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

At lower rates and lower valuations, every Larry and Linda Lakewood was doing it to pay for there #IgotaplaceinFraser. But now? I don't get it.

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“Larry And Linda Lakewood”…fucking awesome. How about Harry and Heather Highlands?
TBF, if it weren’t for weekend Front Rangers, WP/Fraser (and the local economy) wouldn’t even exist.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Wanna 'splain that? I'm familiar with cash offer financing. But cash is cash and leverage is leverage.

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it's easy

you take a loan out against your stocks buy a house it's cash
you take a heloc out against the skyrocketing value of your home go buy another house it's cash

I was advised in the past couple years to take out a heloc for 400k and go buy a house somewhere else cheaper and cooler
it sounded kinda stuipd to me so I didn't

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Airbnb's dirty little secret is that less than 5% of the hosts control over a third of all listed properties. The top 1% control a staggering amount of homes. It's become a front for real estate investment/management companies.

If your community has a good track record of appreciating home prices and some tourists, these pros will swarm onto it like flies on shit.

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pretty much
a know someone in town who owns a few str houses and condos
they are bankrolling in it
got in ten plus years ago have a solid track record it's A plus rentals high standards
the main house goes for 6k a night over xmas holidays it's booked solid back to back rentals for 3 months in the summer and 5 months in the winter

Yeah, I get all of that but I'm talking about right now. I don't think the sharps are better on my capital appreciation anytime soon.

Um...our economy does not needs STRs. That's the biggest line of horse shit just about ever.

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I'm fine with STRs existing as it's the easiest logistically with kids+dogs in areas with shitty food options (read: mountain towns) so I can make my own.
That said, I think they should be regulated and additionally taxed like hotels to support more local housing stock and investment in the community.

An area predominated by hotels does nothing for local housing stock regardless of regulation and tax.

Think I read in paper that the neighborhood I'm in (in Mt. CB) is 40-45% STR. Bunch of dark units in the winter, pops off come summertime. Neighborhood was absolutely buzzing a few weeks ago. Somewhere in the middle now capacity-wise, but ~200% increase in homeowners complaining about people parking on the empty public streets in front of/adjacent to their homes.

I can only assume that the majority of people that live in these mountain towns and counties over run with STR's and no workforce housing are perfectly fine with it.

Or are their hands tied by state laws that don't let them do anything about it?

We're facing a similar crisis in the mountain towns of southern Vermont. State law says anything rented for less than 30 days is considered a hotel but nobody enforces compliance with hotel requirements such as fire codes, ADA access, etc. Some towns have gone so far as to restrict rentals to no less than 30 days (Manchester, VT). Not sure how they intend to enforce that law....

Seasonal rentals are OK in my book because the people tend to contribute to the local economy. Weekenders that are renting an AirBnB tend to bring their own food and booze. It's a big debate in the town that I live in (transparency: I only live there full-time from Thanksgiving to Easter so I can't vote). Many want to follow Manchester's lead but there's a few locals that supplement their income by renting out part of their homes on weekends. Obviously, they are against it and I get their point. They aren't the problem.

A house just behind mine was bought by a person we've never seen. They rented it out to shitheads every weekend. It was worst in the summer when people have their windows open and frat bros are up until 3am partying outside. Calls and letters to the owners did nothing so there may have been a bit of local action to convince them that their model was not the way. The house is for sale right now.

My house is worth 3X what I paid in 2012 but I'm not selling.

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Originally Posted by MyNameIsAugustWest

We're facing a similar crisis in the mountain towns of southern Vermont. State law says anything rented for less than 30 days is considered a hotel but nobody enforces compliance with hotel requirements such as fire codes, ADA access, etc. Some towns have gone so far as to restrict rentals to no less than 30 days (Manchester, VT). Not sure how they intend to enforce that law....

Seasonal rentals are OK in my book because the people tend to contribute to the local economy. Weekenders that are renting an AirBnB tend to bring their own food and booze. It's a big debate in the town that I live in (transparency: I only live there full-time from Thanksgiving to Easter so I can't vote). Many want to follow Manchester's lead but there's a few locals that supplement their income by renting out part of their homes on weekends. Obviously, they are against it and I get their point. They aren't the problem.

A house just behind mine was bought by a person we've never seen. They rented it out to shitheads every weekend. It was worst in the summer when people have their windows open and frat bros are up until 3am partying outside. Calls and letters to the owners did nothing so there may have been a bit of local action to convince them that their model was not the way. The house is for sale right now.

My house is worth 3X what I paid in 2012 but I'm not selling.

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Boulder sucks in many ways but they did seem to nail the STR problem. I may not have the exact details correct but IIRC they require every STR to be owner occupied. So, you can leave for the summer and STR your house, but you cannot STR an investment property. You can STR an ADU (or room in your house) year-round because you occupy the main unit (and are generally there to police behavior). They police it by having code enforcement on airbnb. Some friends have a private downstairs room with a separate entrance they rent on airbnb and they have had code enforcement pose as potential renters on more than one occasion to make sure they were in compliance.

Of course, this isn't a solution for every town, because more resort oriented towns have housing stock that was always intended to be STRs.

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Originally Posted by oldnew_guy

I can only assume that the majority of people that live in these mountain towns and counties over run with STR's and no workforce housing are perfectly fine with it.

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There are a lot of ways to answer that question. As mentioned up thread, the dirt pimps run the show. Lots of people are in favor of "affordable housing" until the hand is in there cookie jar.

Those that are already on the property ladder feel like they generally have more to lose than gain despite what they say publicly. The Super Karens want no STRs, no high density, low taxes and no decrease in their property values. The Puffy Coat Mafia is generally realtors that own STRs. They are so bad that they'd like there own school district because Granby is down valley trash.

We don't ever talk about the wage scale. Many developers have told me that market rate apartments would be easy if people made more money. Even the subsidized affordable housing products can't even meet there own affordability standards. In Winter Park, that had to push the income standard to 120% AMI so people could afford a $1,900 studio.

This thread is fucking hilarious.
I live in a resort town/seasonal area and can’t stand the tourists. Yet I’m going to brag about my triple digit equity gain.



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Town and county here (WY) don’t actually have such a big problem with this, no one can afford to do an Air-B-N-B as a pure investment, lol. They are only allowed in very small parts of town, near the ski areas, essentially. (Called the ‘resort overlay’).
we have other problems! !

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

There are a lot of ways to answer that question. As mentioned up thread, the dirt pimps run the show. Lots of people are in favor of "affordable housing" until the hand is in there cookie jar.

Those that are already on the property ladder feel like they generally have more to lose than gain despite what they say publicly. The Super Karens want no STRs, no high density, low taxes and no decrease in their property values. The Puffy Coat Mafia is generally realtors that own STRs. They are so bad that they'd like there own school district because Granby is down valley trash.

We don't ever talk about the wage scale. Many developers have told me that market rate apartments would be easy if people made more money. Even the subsidized affordable housing products can't even meet there own affordability standards. In Winter Park, that had to push the income standard to 120% AMI so people could afford a $1,900 studio.

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Seems my point has been made. People vote and if they keep putting people in who perpetuate the system then.....maybe they like the system the way it is. (Until their taxes go up by some multiple.)