Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

Mush like the tuition forgiveness threads and any number of others, people that had to break their balls want others to do the same.

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Originally Posted by North

Nah man you're not. Not even close. Comparing notes, that was/is the typical process for my peer group (primarily middle to upper middle class white kids that went to college and got science/engineering degrees). It's not special or particularly impactful on your ability to own a home in any desirable location.

The notion that individual anecdotes about choices made and pennies saved 10+ yrs ago are relevant to today's challenges (that are supported by actual studies and data sets larger than 10) is mind blowing. But carry on with the boomer shit.

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Jesus. I wasn't talking about people being able to buy houses nor were my comments meant to say do some bootstrapping or that things are no different for kids today. I was talking about how I thought Supermoon was off on saying that to earn a master's in education, you'd have to borrow north of six figures. If you can keep your GPA above 3.7 and go to one of the major state universities here, you will spend $45,000 on a master's degree. You have to live somewhere and eat regardless of going to college or not. 15 hours per week of part time work at McDonald's (they also offer tuition assistance not in my calculation) would pay the the university bill. Work a bit more than that and save during the summer and you might come out with a degree and manageable or no debt. $100,000+ seems excessive to me as what someone needs to borrow to get an advanced degree in a field that is hiring.

Sure things are different now but if you're the type of person that borrows $100,000+ to be a teacher and buy a house in Teton Valley, best of luck to you. To my other point, if Teton Valley wants new teachers, Teton Valley should figure out how to make that happen because they will lose teachers to IF.

The Bootstraps Crowd and the Housing is Unattainable Set are spewing bullshit. Stop.

The affordability of housing (rent or buy) in the mountain west (Montrose and Aspen, Jackson and Dubois, Winter Park and Kremmling) has absolutely declined over the last 30 years.

Some expectations are unreasonable starting with the single family house e bike distance from the cool stuff and continuing from there.

Its why the subsidized model isn't/won't work and then you have the NIMBYs fighting anyting that looks like an apartment building. The dwindling moderates are getting sick of throwing up in their mouth listening the extreme view point that this their cause in so just that they'll forward it an any cost.

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

Mush like the tuition forgiveness threads and any number of others, people that had to break their balls want others to do the same.

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I think this a simplistic, but fairly accurate take.

And to be fair, top of the institutions that must die list is 4 year college where you get to fuck off, not work, "find yourself" and whine at the bill when you are done.

The robbed of experience argument is entitlement. If you can't afford it. You don't get it. Living in the basement, working, going to community college to, maybe, go to State School to get the four year degree. That not bad or wrong. College isn't job training.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

The Bootstraps Crowd and the Housing is Unattainable Set are spewing bullshit. Stop.

The affordability of housing (rent or buy) in the mountain west (Montrose and Aspen, Jackson and Dubois, Winter Park and Kremmling) has absolutely declined over the last 30 years.

Some expectations are unreasonable starting with the single family house e bike distance from the cool stuff and continuing from there.

Its why the subsidized model isn't/won't work and then you have the NIMBYs fighting anyting that looks like an apartment building. The dwindling moderates are getting sick of throwing up in their mouth listening the extreme view point that this their cause in so just that they'll forward it an any cost.

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Steamboat has a big plot of land that they are turning into affordable housing (I don't know the exact details so I don't know where it is in the planning stages or what type of housing it will be). But I read an article in the paper about a poll the city did to find out what people wanted to do with the development. The expectations were totally unreasonable, like you say. The majority wanted their own SFR and scoffed at the idea of townhomes sharing walls. Sort of a "they have it, why can't I" POV. Well, "they" bought their place before prices skyrocketed or they came with a boatload of money, neither of which you did or have. So to afford living here, you may have to be happy in a deed restricted townhome and -- god forbid -- not have your own SFR lot.

I think there is an entitlement/expectation problem for some of the have nots, but there is also a bootstrap problem from the people who don't realize that things were way easier 25-30 years ago.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

You cannot absolve life from any and all hardship.

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Genuinely curious. What hardships and/or sacrifices did you make to be an accountant in JH?

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Originally Posted by Danno

The expectations were totally unreasonable, like you say. The majority wanted their own SFR and scoffed at the idea of townhomes sharing walls. Sort of a "they have it, why can't I" POV. Well, "they" bought their place before prices skyrocketed or they came with a boatload of money, neither of which you did or have. So to afford living here, you may have to be happy in a deed restricted townhome and -- god forbid -- not have your own SFR lot.

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That's why I laugh at these so called "affordable housing" projects in mountain towns. The price per square foot of land in Steamboat is just as expensive as it is in Seattle yet in Seattle the affordable housing that is being built is studio micro housing yet in mountain towns they still are under the impression that SFR, or even town houses, is going to work. People in mountain towns are delusional.

But the non polar opinions just get drowned out. So the choices/actions become really expesnsive subsidized housing projects with dubious benefits or nothing.

I represent only my opinion but I'm in the thick of it and I hear and see first hand what people see and do. In that last month I've seen people complain that the finishes for the proposed Victoria Village Project in Fraser weren't nice enough, been told that you only need to income qualify once (then you can get your WFH job and so on) and also seen heated opposition to a 90unit studio apartment complex from second homeowner residents in Pole Creek Valley that straight up don't want any development that isn't large single family homes.

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Originally Posted by mcphee

Genuinely curious. What hardships and/or sacrifices did you make to be an accountant in JH?

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All the standard stuff (ramen, camping locally and not a real vacation, etc), but the largest was I bought a small 1 bedroom house that needed a crap ton of work, then got a second job at a construction company so I could learn how to remodel and add a second bedroom myself (and take advantage of their pro rates) then busted my ass for 5 years building all of that nights and weekends myself.

People like to make fun of the avocado toast thing but ignore that skipping the toast is just an example of a mindset necessary to get the shit you want sometimes.

Altasnob, fact matter. Again, you are just making shit up.

The Steamboat Project is called Brown Ranch. The land was donated. https://brownranchsteamboat.org/

Out the window of my house is a proposed 90 unit non-subsidized Studio Apartment complex in Tabernash.

What you see from Seattle doesn't accurately reflect what's going on. But you know this and it's just how you plan internet.

Talk to me about in-state tuition in VT and NH and how affordable it is.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Altasnob, fact matter. Again, you are just making shit up.

The Steamboat Project is called Brown Ranch. The land was donated. https://brownranchsteamboat.org/

Out the window of my house is a proposed 90 unit non-subsidized Studio Apartment complex in Tabernash.

What you see from Seattle doesn't accurately reflect what's going on. But you know this and it's just how you plan internet.

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You're providing some anecdotal examples to support your view. People move to mountain towns to escape the dense city life. That worked in the past when land in these rural communities was less expensive than in the cities. But now the land there is just as expensive as the cities. So whether they like it or not, they will be forced to start planning for city-like growth in these communities. Sure, a few 90 studio unit apartments may be built. But in general, you are going to see a ton of resistance to this form of dense development (Danno presented one example). Hell, people fight this kind of dense development in Seattle and San Francisco. But I'll still put my money on the big cities being able to pull this off over mountain towns. Mountain towns are basically just the new form of sprawling, car centric American suburbs.

Worker housing needs to be rental.
Sorry bro brah but winning a one time lottery doesn’t entitle you to retire in that fancy ski town. Most people move out and move on. It’s life. Shit gets expensive. And decisions must be made.

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Originally Posted by jackstraw

Talk to me about in-state tuition in VT and NH and how affordable it is.

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I'm guessing it isn't? It is mandatory job training that your kids need to get or is it just some social convention that has become really expensive?

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Originally Posted by altasnob

That's why I laugh at these so called "affordable housing" projects in mountain towns. The price per square foot of land in Steamboat is just as expensive as it is in Seattle yet in Seattle the affordable housing that is being built is studio micro housing yet in mountain towns they still are under the impression that SFR, or even town houses, is going to work. People in mountain towns are delusional.

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Except that most "affordable housing" projects being built in these delusional mountain towns are condos or townhomes, not SFH. So regardless of what the delusional working class is wanting or hoping for, it's not being built at scale. I realize you derive pleasure from attempting to skewer people's hopes for a better life, but the schadenfreude you seek is not simply as black and white of an outcome as you think.

And I wouldn't mind taking a stab at being mayor here, but until the pay goes beyond the $3400/mo, and/or I find that elusive money-making, ski-pow-everyday side hustle - that ain't gonna work for my economic reality and what I consider to be a pretty full-time role.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I'm guessing it isn't? It is mandatory job training that your kids need to get or is it just some social convention that has become really expensive?

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University of New Hampshire's tuition is $19,024 for in-state and $37,934 for out-of-state students. Compared with the national average cost of in-state tuition of $11,286, University of New Hampshire is more expensive.



https://www.usnews.com › paying


Just tuition mind you.

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Originally Posted by jackstraw

Talk to me about in-state tuition in VT and NH and how affordable it is.

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Wouldn't know. But I do know they can move to a state with lower in-state costs, take a gap year and work to establish residency and then pay in-state. Not sure if that fits with their and their family's goals and post high school dreams.

Counselor, kindly shut the fuck up. I presented those two because its what I know near my house. It not talking out my ass. You back step for faux facts to speaking in hypotheticals.

Why be such a shit bag?

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

All the standard stuff (ramen, camping locally and not a real vacation, etc), but the largest was I bought a small 1 bedroom house that needed a crap ton of work, then got a second job at a construction company so I could learn how to remodel and add a second bedroom myself (and take advantage of their pro rates) then busted my ass for 5 years building all of that nights and weekends myself.

People like to make fun of the avocado toast thing but ignore that skipping the toast is just an example of a mindset necessary to get the shit you want sometimes.

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So is your contempt for others the fact that they’re not attempting to do what you did or they don’t have the skills to do what you did?

If they did skill up and get “better” jobs, who fills the gap in “low skill” work that’s now open? World needs ditch diggers too, y’know.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Counselor, kindly shut the fuck up. I presented those two because its what I know near my house. It not talking out my ass. You back step for faux facts to speaking in hypotheticals.

Why be such a shit bag?

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It's the same phenomenon occurring in suburbs across the West. Why do you think states like CA, OR, and WA have imposed state level, top down mandates to increase density? It's because all these suburban cities surrounding places like Seattle and San Francisco were refusing to allow enough density to accommodate the growth. Like you, the suburban residents would say, but look at this 90 unit apartment building being built, or look at all these town homes. But it isn't enough. So the state has stepped in and crammed the density down their throats. The suburban residents are just as delusional as mountain town people.

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Originally Posted by mcphee

So is your contempt for others the fact that they’re not attempting to do what you did or they don’t have the skills to do what you did?

If they did skill up and get “better” jobs, who fills the gap in “low skill” work that’s now open? World needs ditch diggers too, y’know.

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They want the juice, but dont want to squeeze.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

Posting a link to WF, a business that should have been shut down years ago for the arguably criminal exploitation of account and mortgage holders is ironic at best.

Other than that, understood that loan calculators look at gross but throwing out gross income numbers for the sake of argument does not take into account taxes, hoa fees and other costs of living that substantially erode affordability.

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Agreed, WF sucks. They’ve even sent me cease and desist letters. It was the first link in a Google search for “debt to income ratio”. Here’s a more “reputable” link: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-...ratio-en-1791/

Actually, DTI ratios take into account “all debts”… including taxes, hoa fees, insurance. It is actually a really strong measure of affordability.

Ski towns are truly fucked. Didn't grasp the full reality until moving to one. Great for people who got in 'x' years ago, not attainable for anyone now, doesn't matter what job you have. That's why I don't love the whole "entitlement" argument, when a modern day desire was shared by someone 15 years ago, and now the possibility of fulfilling said desire is a non starter. But yea, life ain't fair.

Every one of our friends in town is getting by with some sort of hookup. Parents own a rental property, 2nd property, whatever. I'm just a beater who moved here recently and don't see being here long term given the circumstances, but it does suck to see people who grew up in Jackson with no hope of buying their own place. I guess such is life. Just going to enjoy the outdoor access while I can. Maybe move to Illinois and get a gravel bike.


Adiron, your numbers on take home in Idaho seem off BTW. When I was working at the site on a 110k salary my take home was $5200/month, which is realistic when accounting for health care and 401k contributions. Using that as a template, $150k gross would be about $7100 take home a month. So your 4-4.5k mortgage is well over 50% of net income. Maybe those numbers skew a bit if there are two earners instead of 1, but not by much.

It's income and wealth inequality.

For some reason it's hard for people to wrap their brains around that it hasn't gotten better since they were 22.

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Originally Posted by mcphee

So is your contempt for others the fact that they’re not attempting to do what you did or they don’t have the skills to do what you did?

If they did skill up and get “better” jobs, who fills the gap in “low skill” work that’s now open? World needs ditch diggers too, y’know.

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In some ways I'm saying they need to realize life is going to have challenges, and they should approach those challenges with more than just a shitty attitude or complaining.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Mountain towns are basically just the new form of sprawling, car centric American suburbs.

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Yeah, maybe, if half the houses in the suburbs were STRs or sat empty 46 weeks out of the year. It's not like new people crowded out the old ones. They were displaced by money.

I'll say it again: these days the majority of home sales in ski towns are for cash. In Jackson it's nearly 70%. Modern ski towns aren't organic towns or suburbs; they are storage facilities for wealthy people's real estate portfolios.

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Originally Posted by Conundrum

Wouldn't know. But I do know they can move to a state with lower in-state costs, take a gap year and work to establish residency and then pay in-state. Not sure if that fits with their and their family's goals and post high school dreams.

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Let me know when you come back to reality.

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Originally Posted by east or bust

Ski towns are truly fucked. Didn't grasp the full reality until moving to one. Great for people who got in 'x' years ago, not attainable for anyone now, doesn't matter what job you have. That's why I don't love the whole "entitlement" argument, when a modern day desire was shared by someone 15 years ago, and now the possibility of fulfilling said desire is a non starter. But yea, life ain't fair.

much.

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I have been around alot of foreigners slash immigrants since I was a kid. The one take away from all of them is the American dream and the ability to achieve almost anything in this country. Versus the place they came from.

So the new ski town living is an hour coach day.

I got lucky and I know it. My life has been a fluke since I left home at age 17. Living in a ski town has many advantages and some major suck.

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Originally Posted by jackstraw

Let me know when you come back to reality.

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You receive less than 50% financial support from a parent/guardian; have continuously resided in and maintained a bona fide domicile in Idaho for purposes other than education for at least 12 months prior to the term in which the you is applying for residency.

To establish residency under this statute the student must prove they have received less than 50% of their total financial support from one or more parent(s)/legal guardian(s) as well as proof that the student has been domiciled in Idaho for the 12 consecutive months prior to the semester residency is being sought after for purposes other than education.

If you have not been enrolled
If you have not been enrolled as a full-time student during the previous 12 months you must prove you have been domiciled in Idaho by either:

Providing proof that you have been employed full time in Idaho for those 12 months as well as filing an Idaho state tax return for the past 12 months.
OR

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You move here, you work for 12 months and file taxes, then you apply for college as a resident. Then you go to school, get good grades (3.7+ gpa) and the school gives you a $2,500/year scholarship.

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Expense Type Idaho Resident True Blue Promise Scholarship ($2,000/year for 4 years) Dean's Scholarship ($2,500/year for 4 years) Presidential Scholarship ($3,000/year for
4 years)
Tuition and Fees $8,364 $6,364 $5,864 $5,364
Books and Supplies $1,240 $1,240 $1,240 $1,240

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$7,104/yr with good grades (or $47,680 less than in-state NH for a four year). Plus living expenses. Seems like an okay way to move west and go to school if that's what you're in to.

May not be reality for you or for students with mom and dad paying but it is a true reality for some kids and adults who want to go to a four year school but can't afford in-state where their from.


Back to my reality. I got pretty lucky with when my parents did the dirty to conceive me. Sometimes wished they could have done it a decade and a half sooner so I could have ski bummed in Tahoe in the 80s but I digress.

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Originally Posted by fastfred

I have been around alot of foreigners slash immigrants since I was a kid. The one take away from all of them is the American dream and the ability to achieve almost anything in this country. Versus the place they came from.

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Gee, I guess that's why most of the new workers in ski towns don't speak English, have a 6th grade education and their family will never go skiing.

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Originally Posted by east or bust

Ski towns are truly fucked. Didn't grasp the full reality until moving to one. Great for people who got in 'x' years ago, not attainable for anyone now, doesn't matter what job you have.

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Ski towns are fucked but there is still a ton of amazing places for ski or else that are hardly expensive or filled in.
Just in Utah as so many here know the place, you could find a place around Logan for little $ and great skiing nearby. Nowadays so many employers let you commute only a few days a week, these places become possible and will eventually become desirable. People need to look at what's now possible vs. what used to be possible.
I know my dream place was cheap 20 years ago but I had no way to keep my job AND live there. That's why it was cheap. Options nowadays are limitless.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Gee, I guess that's why most of the new workers in ski towns don't speak English, have a 6th grade education and their family will never go skiing.

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I know one guy who has a ski in ski out condo part of the affordable housing unit snowboards and works in a ski shop part time

So I guess so

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Originally Posted by oldnew_guy

It's income and wealth inequality.

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This thread depresses me, because there are way too many people who have adapted to this new fucked reality, and then defend it.

I have adapted to it, I'm a pretty lucky guy even if I don't own a home anymore and am kind of fucked financially (at least compared to where I used to be). But I sure as fuck wouldn't defend the new normal as perfectly fine, and argue that those who complain about it are entitled whiners.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Yeah, maybe, if half the houses in the suburbs were STRs or sat empty 46 weeks out of the year. It's not like new people crowded out the old ones. They were displaced by money.

I'll say it again: these days the majority of home sales in ski towns are for cash. In Jackson it's nearly 70%. Modern ski towns aren't organic towns or suburbs; they are storage facilities for wealthy people's real estate portfolios.

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yep

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

In some ways I'm saying they need to realize life is going to have challenges, and they should approach those challenges with more than just a shitty attitude or complaining.

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since the discussion has already been broached only certain people should get to live in the most desirable places in this country, maybe these new gatekeeper’s kids should be the cleaners, store clerks, bus drivers, cooks, servers, bartenders, hairdressers/barbers, etc…low skill is menial, mundane, and repetitive. Perfect for kids 5-17. Much easier than letting software do most of your work.

or how about the “perpetually aggrieved about people who are beneath them and their desire to breath” commute 1-2 hrs each way to their services, dining, and entertainment.

Sacrifices and all that jazz. L

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Originally Posted by Danno

But I sure as fuck wouldn't defend the new normal as perfectly fine, and argue that those who complain about it are entitled whiners.

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I think there would be a lot more sympathy if people werent complaining about how unfair/difficult it was to try and live a comfortable family life in some of the most affluent and desirable areas of the world while working universally low/medium paying jobs all so they can chase an adrenaline junky hobby. This problem (which is a problem all over) gets a lot more sympathy when the folks complaining about the wealth/standard of living gap are living in more "normal" living situations or dont have much easier living situations to fall back on.

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

I think there would be a lot more sympathy if people werent complaining about how unfair/difficult it was to try and live a comfortable family life in some of the most affluent and desirable areas of the world while working universally low/medium paying jobs all so they can chase an adrenaline junky hobby. This problem (which is a problem all over) gets a lot more sympathy when the folks complaining about the wealth/standard of living gap are living in more "normal" living situations or dont have much easier living situations to fall back on.

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What I see in this thread are strawmen, people (like you in this post) creating "complainers" who work at "universally low/medium paying jobs" just so they "can chase an adrenaline junky hobby." The people actually in this thread are just people working at jobs and trying to make it. I left a mountain town because I could not afford to buy a house there. I was working a professional govt job and was scraping by. To the extent I was "chas[ing] an adrenaline junky hobby", it was as a weekend warrior. I worked a FT M-F job. So sure, when you set up the worst strawman you can think of, and make it sound like they are trying to work 25 hours a week at a retail job so they can ski 100 days a year, it's easy to not have sympathy. And sure, those people may exist. But that's not who we're really talking about, we're talking about teachers and fireman and EMTs and accountants and town clerks and social workers and retail managers. People who have good enough middle income jobs that they should be able to get by at a reasonable level, living in the communities they work in.

Kids in cages down at the border but lets cry for the suburban kids that want to live in condos at a resort town.

Well said Danno.

Wells Fargo might suck but they have the best app and online banking interface of any bank I've found.