Real Estate Crash thread

If we want to talk about "generational entitlement", avocado toast, cell phones and Starbucks are drops in the bucket.

Think bigger. Let's go with average square footage of a home (ex. 1289 in the 60s, 2650 in the 2010s), or average vehicles per home (ex. ~19% had 2, ~2% had 3+ in the 60s, ~28% own 2, ~22% own 3, + the 2020s), now we're getting somewhere, but that's not the main problem.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

What I'm saying, is even in one of the, if not the most desirable places in the country, a family of teachers can live comfortably within 30 minutes of their jobs starting out fresh out of school.

But way to illustrate my point, where even when that is possible, it is a non-starter in terms of the entitlement of people looking for housing in modern America.

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You are totally glossing over the commuting costs. In addition to the gas and maintenance costs eating up that theoretical teacher salary, anyone commuting from teton valley to Jackson has to deal with replacing their vehicles at a much faster rate. There's nothing comfortable about that commute and its costs. Between the cost of rent and the cost of the commute, $25/hr is just barely treading water in Victor these days. Just renting a room is $12,000 a year.

Basically, you're full of shit if you think that's "living comfortably". Your theoretical teacher has maybe $1000-1500 a month after tax to cover the remainder of their expenses and not much discretionary income. It will take them half a lifetime to save up a downpayment.

Jackson is so desperate for workers that it has to pay its dishwashers over $20 for no English. The guy cleaning hot tubs makes as much or more than your theoretical teachers and competes with them for housing.

Somewhere in the middle on this. To AR's point, "living comfortably" can be done in the mid-west. "Living an instagram life" comes at a cost. Shouldn't be on the teachers and EMS to figure out how to make it work. Should be on the community as a whole to figure what type of community they want and hopefully that includes the teachers and EMS. Commuting once or twice a week for fun is a lot easier than commuting five days a week for work and this is going to bite the affluent communities at some point.

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Originally Posted by hatchgreenchile

Think bigger. Let's go with average square footage of a home (ex. 1289 in the 60s, 2650 in the 2010s), or average vehicles per home (ex. ~19% had 2, ~2% had 3+ in the 60s, ~28% own 2, ~22% own 3, + the 2020s), now we're getting somewhere.

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^This. And parking as well. Every year, America builds more three car garages than one bedroom apartments. The electrification of vehicles will only exasperate this as off site parking with charger becomes even more desirable.

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

Ha, this.



How the hell are you deriving your supposed knowledge on the topic? IIRC - you no longer live near Jackson? I've worked at a school in the arguably other-most-desireable-and-expensive places in the country, for 11 years and this is absolutely not my experience. My school (private) and the public school here pay pretty well. No one is making $75k "fresh out of school" and very few teachers are "fresh out of school" without loans that need paying. Sure, plenty of double income households have bought homes or condos 30-40min away, but that reality is much farther out of reach in the last two years and probably wont change for a while.





I get that you (AR) want to hang this all on people like me wanting entitlements and everything with a cherry on top, but the other half of the balance here (see Supermoon) is that the community at large wants their essential workers living nearby, being part of the community, sending their kids to its school and supporting it from the ground up. That's why our communities support affordable housing, vote for affordable housing and protections and that's why our communities oppose outside overreach (like the CO house bill).

It's easy for outsiders to peg the working class in mountain towns/resort communities as entitled cry babies wanting their cake and wanting to eat it all too (that's ultimately some manifestation of the [misguided] American Dream combined with human nature). To me, though, there's also a symbiotic relationship wherein a town needs to maintain a local population, local culture, local employees and some shade of reality to keep it's brand and maintain the look+feel that makes the place what it is and keeps the tourism dollars flowing. Weeks ago, in this thread, other posters gleefully stated that workers should just be commuting from hours away to support Jackson and Jackson-esque communities - solely because that's what the housing/free-market economy dictates. I would argue that no town, no resort and no regular visitor (in the long run) wants "their place" to be eroded from locals and character and turned into a soulless free-market outcome. It's easy to write it off as simple entitlement for "those of us who got lucky here" but there's a bigger picture to consider, especially if you enjoy living or coming to these communities that are quickly changing.

See here for an additional layer: https://www.aspendailynews.com/opini...73d0e6849.html

My above musings are not a new idea; us maggots have been indoctrinated by the concept for 35 years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhuHuQ1Bu3o

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I literally posted the payscale for Teton County, starting teachers get 74.3k as of 2022 with a masters degree.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

You are totally glossing over the commuting costs. In addition to the gas and maintenance costs eating up that theoretical teacher salary, anyone commuting from teton valley to Jackson has to deal with replacing their vehicles at a much faster rate. There's nothing comfortable about that commute and its costs. Between the cost of rent and the cost of the commute, $25/hr is just barely treading water in Victor these days. Just renting a room is $12,000 a year.

Basically, you're full of shit if you think that's "living comfortably". Your theoretical teacher has maybe $1000-1500 a month after tax to cover the remainder of their expenses and not much discretionary income. It will take them half a lifetime to save up a downpayment.

Jackson is so desperate for workers that it has to pay its dishwashers over $20 for no English. The guy cleaning hot tubs makes as much or more than your theoretical teachers and competes with them for housing.

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Dude I lived the life for 15 years. Commuting isn't free but get the fuck out of here that a couple in Victor can't get by on 150k gross a year. My wife and I did exactly that with a kid (and for a significant part of our 20's, on significantly less income).

It isn't theoretical. That household of teachers making 150k fresh out of school is clearing at least 115k post tax (including Idaho state income), has their retirement paid for almost in full (and guaranteed). Your math doesn't add up saying that couple is only going to have 12k left over after their commute and mortgage. Broulims isn't that expensive.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Yeah, if all those kids just gave up their iPhones it would only take them 200 years to save up a 20% down payment on a house. So irresponsible of them.

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It's those kids and their damn avocado toast. That's why they can't buy houses!!

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Originally Posted by Conundrum

Somewhere in the middle on this. To AR's point, "living comfortably" can be done in the mid-west.

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Yup.

But FTS.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

I literally posted the payscale for Teton County, starting teachers get 74.3k as of 2022 with a masters degree.

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Fair fair, I didn't see that link. Pretty impressive pay schedule, especially compared to the District here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1446419217

I still disagree with the economic opportunity you paint for a $120k gross household buying a free market house within 30min. Looking at the two properties in Victor currently available for under $600k - their housing costs would be basically half their monthly net take home. I don't consider that particularly sustainable, let alone entitled.

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

No, Aspen certainly hasn't figured it out, but neither has some State Rep from the Front Range or a former front-ranger who wants to educate us entitled mountain bumpkins while also enjoying/taking Aspen's attributes without contributing to its economy.

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I vote alpinevibes most likely to become mayor of Aspen. Like everyone is the mountain town, they are raised, educated, and starts their career in a major metro then moves to the mountain town, spends a few years, and becomes an expert on the "uniqueness" of the mountain town's housing needs. The wealthy NIMBYs in the mountain town will fund your campaign becuase they don't really want anyone else to move there, but reluctantly concede they need some additional housing so they can find someone to raise their kids, clean their house, and serve them a drink.

I'll freely admit I am talking about starting salaries, assuming the concept that they are going to grow as they progress in their careers. For a young family starting out, the dream is still attainable and will only get better as they age and their salaries improve. That frankly, is how it is supposed to be.

Somewhere along the line though, buying a starter condo and maybe driving a used car became untenable to the community in pretty much any town, let alone ski country, and that is part of the problem. I can post links to 20+ properties for sale in Teton Valley right now that a couple of teachers starting out could afford no problem, but yet many are saying that is impossible. Sure they aren't going to be the nicest homes in the hood, but that is how life has gone on for generations and now that just won't do.

Affordable housing has always involved compromise, but in all aspects of life almost no one is willing to do that anymore.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

I'll freely admit I am talking about starting salaries, assuming the concept that they are going to grow as they progress in their careers. For a young family starting out, the dream is still attainable and will only get better as they age and their salaries improve. That frankly, is how it is supposed to be.

Somewhere along the line though, buying a starter condo and maybe driving a used car became untenable to the community in pretty much any town, let alone ski country, and that is part of the problem. I can post links to 20+ properties for sale in Teton Valley right now that a couple of teachers starting out could afford no problem, but yet many are saying that is impossible. Sure they aren't going to be the nicest homes in the hood, but that is how life has gone on for generations and now that just won't do.

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You are just totally ignoring the reality of most people graduating into these careers right now. Just getting a masters is most likely going to mean you leave schools with a six figure student loan, at best. God forbid you have any medical debt or CC debt from trying to survive during school. Yeah maybe you squeak by on $150k household but you aren't ever going to get ahead or have any stability. Want to have kids? Where's the $3k per month child care bill going to come from? What if your kid has medical needs? Sure your salary "grows" as you get more experienced, but does it keep up with not only inflation, but also the accelerating costs of things like housing, insurance, and groceries? God forbid you want to travel or send your kid to college. What you did in 1985, or even 2005, is not the reality anymore.

If you think these jobs should exist, they should make a wage that lets people have a life worth living.

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

My above musings are not a new idea; us maggots have been indoctrinated by the concept for 35 years:

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Yeah, but Rasta Stevie left Telluride a long time ago and it is pretty much a place for the super affluent, with a handful of characters still left, but leaving every year, is it not? At least the lucky ones get to cash out if they bought a home 20, 30, 40 years ago. (I'm with you, I'm just saying the character of mountain towns has been slowly eroding for a long time).

AR, you are so far out of your element with what teachers get paid and can afford in a mountain town. Teachers don't make shit where I live, even if they do work summers. CO remains in 49th place as far as teacher's salaries, and many mountain districts actually pay less than the front range ones, despite the higher cost of living.

AR's right. The perceived unaffordability in these mountain towns isn't actually that bad, relatively speaking. You can always drive until you qualify. That's why I see housing prices in these markets to continue to explode exponentially into the foreseeable future. But these communities are not planning for that growth. So eventually, traffic will become so miserable that the quality of life suffers, and these communities are no longer so attractive. Only then will housing prices stabilize.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

That's called age discrimination. They let you get away with crap like that in race to the bottom places like Montana.

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You're naive. It happens everywhere. Dirty little secret of public education. They don't care about hiring the best teachers, just the cheapest teachers. Saw a lot of that in Washington when I was teaching high school there. In fact it helped me get my first job in WA, and I know for a fact I was hired over a very experienced teacher who also interviewed for the position. But that's just one of many examples I could cite.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

AR's right. The perceived unaffordability in these mountain towns isn't actually that bad, relatively speaking. You can always drive until you qualify. That's why I see housing prices in these markets to continue to explode exponentially into the foreseeable future. But these communities are not planning for that growth. So eventually, traffic will become so miserable that the quality of life suffers, and these communities are no longer so attractive. Only then will housing prices stabilize.

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Ha. You are talking about quality of life issues as if someone actually lives full time in most of those houses. The average home price in Jackson is $7M, the majority of sales are cash and many of those homes are vacant the majority of the year.

It's not a town anymore. It's a storage facility for real estate investors.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

You are just totally ignoring the reality of most people graduating into these careers right now. Just getting a masters is most likely going to mean you leave schools with a six figure student loan, at best.

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Once again, I'm somewhere in the middle on this. The state university in my town is showing about $10k/year for full cost in-state tuition/fees/books/supplies with no scholarships or grants (plenty available-average a 3.7 or higher and it's auto $2,500/yr for four). Same cost for masters. So an in-state masters degree for $60k. Sure, room and board and other expenses in school but man, am I the only one who worked through college and during the summers, drove a shitty car, and had roommates to help pay for things?

Yeah, you're really going to have to want to live in a mountain town and sacrifice but saying teachers can't obtain advanced degrees unless they spend over $100k is a stretch. Maybe other states have far higher in-state tuition but we were talking about the ID side of the pass.

Not every teacher needs to go to a private liberal arts college.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Just getting a masters is most likely going to mean you leave schools with a six figure student loan, at best.

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I agree with mountain towns being fucked for public service/low end workers but, this part makes me bristle.

If you leave school with 6 figures of debt there was some serious financial irresponsibility taking place. Go to a state school, have roommates, work 30 hours a week, etc.

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Originally Posted by goldenboy

Yeah, but Rasta Stevie left Telluride a long time ago and it is pretty much a place for the super affluent, with a handful of characters still left, but leaving every year, is it not? At least the lucky ones get to cash out if they bought a home 20, 30, 40 years ago. (I'm with you, I'm just saying the character of mountain towns has been slowly eroding for a long time).

AR, you are so far out of your element with what teachers get paid and can afford in a mountain town. Teachers don't make shit where I live, even if they do work summers. CO remains in 49th place as far as teacher's salaries, and many mountain districts actually pay less than the front range ones, despite the higher cost of living.

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Did you read the payscale I posted for Jackson?

Crested Butte is indeed one of the worst ski towns IMO for wages vs housing costs though, so I will give you that. I do think my point still stands that in almost all areas (note almost), someone starting out can live within a reasonable commuting distance to their job and work up from there. That is life. You don't automatically get to start out on third base.

Adiron, wasn't some of the reason you left WY because the schools and medical system sucked/were understaffed?

Unless you automatically start out on third base.

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Originally Posted by Conundrum

Once again, I'm somewhere in the middle on this. The state university in my town is showing about $10k/year for full cost in-state tuition/fees/books/supplies with no scholarships or grants (plenty available-average a 3.7 or higher and it's auto $2,500/yr for four). Same cost for masters. So an in-state masters degree for $60k. Sure, room and board and other expenses in school but man, am I the only one who worked through college and during the summers, drove a shitty car, and had roommates to help pay for things?

Yeah, you're really going to have to want to live in a mountain town and sacrifice but saying teachers can't obtain advanced degrees unless they spend over $100k is a stretch. Maybe other states have far higher in-state tuition but we were talking about the ID side of the pass.

Not every teacher needs to go to a private liberal arts college.

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Originally Posted by zion zig zag

I agree with mountain towns being fucked for public service/low end workers but, this part makes me bristle.

If you leave school with 6 figures of debt there was some serious financial irresponsibility taking place. Go to a state school, have roommates, work 30 hours a week, etc.

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For sure. There are definitely ways to not graduate with a ton of debt, but they are 1) really tough years, and 2) rely on kids who can't legally buy a drink or rent a car to make sound financial decisions that will affect them ten or twenty years down the road. I don't know about you, but I couldn't think past my next midterm or how I was going to get my paper done and also get that powder day in when I was in college. My wife worked her way through college and regrets missing out on a lot of the college lifestyle stuff that is also important like building relationships, navigating new peer groups, finding interests and hobbies, etc, all so she could work for $5.15 an hour stuffing envelopes 40 hours a week.

We aren't setting people up for success is all I'm trying to say, and lots of people from earlier generations had it a lot easier and don't seem to understand that.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

<snip>
We aren't setting people up for success is all I'm trying to say, and lots of people from earlier generations had it a lot easier and don't seem to understand that.

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nOnSeNsE! It wAs aLl mY HaRd wOrK AnD BoOtStRaPs tHaT GoT Me hErE!

Mush like the tuition forgiveness threads and any number of others, people that had to break their balls want others to do the same.

What is a reasonable commute? Let's say from November through March when it's snowing sideways.

2+ hours each way of trying not to die just to punch a clock sure sucks a lot of joy out of life, BTDT.

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

Mush like the tuition forgiveness threads and any number of others, people that had to break their balls want others to do the same.

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You cannot absolve life from any and all hardship.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

I do think my point still stands that in almost all areas (note almost), someone starting out can live within a reasonable commuting distance to their job and work up from there.

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I think the problem with your premise is you assume teachers, cops, nurses, and fire fighters are the lowest wage workers that are necessary for a community. In reality, all these jobs pay well (as they should). But what about all the service workers, the cleaners, the non-college educated, ect? These workers are also necessary for a community and make way less than a first year teacher. How far away from Jackson do they need to drive in from to survive? I guess they can all live in Idaho Falls and drive in daily but at some point, the infrastructure can't handle this.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

I'll freely admit I am talking about starting salaries, assuming the concept that they are going to grow as they progress in their careers. For a young family starting out, the dream is still attainable and will only get better as they age and their salaries improve. That frankly, is how it is supposed to be.

Somewhere along the line though, buying a starter condo and maybe driving a used car became untenable to the community in pretty much any town, let alone ski country, and that is part of the problem. I can post links to 20+ properties for sale in Teton Valley right now that a couple of teachers starting out could afford no problem, but yet many are saying that is impossible. Sure they aren't going to be the nicest homes in the hood, but that is how life has gone on for generations and now that just won't do.

Affordable housing has always involved compromise, but in all aspects of life almost no one is willing to do that anymore.

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For most people, it used to be that 25-35% of your monthly income was the cap for affordable housing costs. If people are exceeding that 35% by a significant margin... 40-50+%, then affordability is being eroded.

Let's say we've got 2 incomes at 150,000 combined, and let's say they are fortunate and also have 100K for a down payment and only 1K in car/loan/credit cards/month between them because they have used cars and went to state schools. How much house can they buy/borrow and remain in the affordability bracket with 6.5-7% rates? Does the top end stop at 500K, 550K, 600K?

Just truly curious what the price points are on the 20+ houses you could list in Teton Valley right now, it seems that inventory of <500K houses that are not being bought as tear downs are scarce almost anywhere these days.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

For sure. There are definitely ways to not graduate with a ton of debt, but they are 1) really tough years, and 2) rely on kids who can't legally buy a drink or rent a car to make sound financial decisions that will affect them ten or twenty years down the road. I don't know about you, but I couldn't think past my next midterm or how I was going to get my paper done and also get that powder day in when I was in college. My wife worked her way through college and regrets missing out on a lot of the college lifestyle stuff that is also important like building relationships, navigating new peer groups, finding interests and hobbies, etc, all so she could work for $5.15 an hour stuffing envelopes 40 hours a week.

We aren't setting people up for success is all I'm trying to say, and lots of people from earlier generations had it a lot easier and don't seem to understand that.

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Says the guy who doesn't work and just drives around the country on an adventure bike watching baseball games.

Honestly, I can't take you seriously on this argument.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

We figuring housing affordability on gross wages now?

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I’m pretty sure most mortgage lenders use a debt to income ratio for determining ability to afford a loan. The income portion in that ratio is gross income.

https://www.wellsfargo.com/goals-cre...-income-ratio/

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Originally Posted by altasnob

I think the problem with your premise is you assume teachers, cops, nurses, and fire fighters are the lowest wage workers that are necessary for a community. In reality, all these jobs pay well (as they should). But what about all the service workers, the cleaners, ect? These workers are also necessary for a community and make way less than a first year teacher. How far away from Jackson do they need to drive in from to survive?

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Further than the teachers. That is the reality when you don't have a skillset worth paying more.

I really can't stand the mentality that everyone must get to live the high life regardless of their own decision making. Get a better degree, learn a better skill, do something to improve your lot in life because the world isn't going to hold your hand the entire way. This mindset that everyone should be able to live in a ski town (or beach town, or anytown USA) without having at least some responsibility to make things happen for themselves is unsustainable thinking as a society.

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Originally Posted by Mofro261

For most people, it used to be that 25-35% of your monthly income was the cap for affordable housing costs. If people are exceeding that 35% by a significant margin... 40-50+%, then affordability is being eroded.

Let's say we've got 2 incomes at 150,000 combined, and let's say they are fortunate and also have 100K for a down payment and only 1K in car/loan/credit cards/month between them because they have used cars and went to state schools. How much house can they buy/borrow and remain in the affordability bracket with 6.5-7% rates? Does the top end stop at 500K, 550K, 600K?

Just truly curious what the price points are on the 20+ houses you could list in Teton Valley right now, it seems that inventory of <500K houses that are not being bought as tear downs are scarce almost anywhere these days.

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A 150k gross couple in Idaho is going to net out to almost 10k a month post tax. 500k house at 6.5% and the Teton Valley ID property tax rate is probably going to run around 4k per month with a 10% down payment at 6.5%. That number jumps to 4.5k per month at 3% down and 7%. Those numbers include property tax and insurance. You are telling me they can't get by on almost 6k for everything else?

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

Says the guy who doesn't work and just drives around the country on an adventure bike watching baseball games.

Honestly, I can't take you seriously on this argument.

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Well, that's not really true at all, but yeah, I have worked hard, came from a privileged upbringing, and have been really lucky along the way which has afforded me a bit of financial stability now that I am 40 years old. I'm still one big medical bill away from being totally fucked, though. Just like everyone else. So that's nice.

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Originally Posted by Conundrum

am I the only one who worked through college and during the summers, drove a shitty car, and had roommates to help pay for things?

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Nah man you're not. Not even close. Comparing notes, that was/is the typical process for my peer group (primarily middle to upper middle class white kids that went to college and got science/engineering degrees). It's not special or particularly impactful on your ability to own a home in any desirable location.

The notion that individual anecdotes about choices made and pennies saved 10+ yrs ago are relevant to today's challenges (that are supported by actual studies and data sets larger than 10) is mind blowing. But carry on with the boomer shit.

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Originally Posted by Flounder

Again, this is based just on my experience in BTV so it may vary. I would absolutely get factual errors corrected because it will impact not only this but also future adjustments. For us the city reassessed all properties at the same time so they used “overall comps” to set the algorithms for determining value of all properties. They didn’t compare each house to a set of comps.

...Comps didn’t play a role, just size, beds, baths, lot, and condition that he plugged into his computer.

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Going back to challenging prop tax, I did a little research, and apparently our assessor's office does use actual market comps specific to each property - and you can even request them. Looking at some of my neighbors' valuations, it looks more like they just throw darts at a board with random numbers. The thing that jumps out the most is the differences in lot value. Single lots i.e. in the 4000-8000 sqft range are $40-45/ft, but 10,000-plus sqft double lots are valued at ~$25. And that holds true even if the house is on one side and the other is vacant & buildable. Regressive much?

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Well, that's not really true at all, but yeah, I have worked hard, came from a privileged upbringing, and have been really lucky along the way which has afforded me a bit of financial stability now that I am 40 years old. I'm still one big medical bill away from being totally fucked, though. Just like everyone else. So that's nice.

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You literally posted a giant trip report about it. Then use absurd statements like anyone with a college degree has six figures of debt to justify abolishing any hardship one might encounter.

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Originally Posted by spanky

I’m pretty sure most mortgage lenders use a debt to income ratio for determining ability to afford a loan. The income portion in that ratio is gross income.

https://www.wellsfargo.com/goals-cre...-income-ratio/

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Posting a link to WF, a business that should have been shut down years ago for the arguably criminal exploitation of account and mortgage holders is ironic at best.

Other than that, understood that loan calculators look at gross but throwing out gross income numbers for the sake of argument does not take into account taxes, hoa fees and other costs of living that substantially erode affordability.

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Originally Posted by oldnew_guy

Adiron, wasn't some of the reason you left WY because the schools and medical system sucked/were understaffed?

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Curiously, he responded to tons of posts but not this one.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

We aren't setting people up for success is all I'm trying to say, and lots of people from earlier generations had it a lot easier and don't seem to understand that.

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Like Conundrum, I'm somewhere in the middle, in that AR is right that people's expectations about what they're entitled to might be unrealistic. But this point is the crux of it all and is pretty much indisputable. Yes, there are affordable towns in less desirable places, but the desirable places are quickly pricing people out. Maybe AR is right that our response to that should be too bad so sad for you, but that response is lame if it doesn't also recognize how much easier it was for a middle income person to make it in those towns 20 years ago, 30 years ago, 40 years ago

I missed that reply, but I ultimately left Jackson because I had a son and my life's priorities changed from skiing everyday to a more well rounded existence. I'm getting older and a mountain town isn't going to have world class health care regardless of how affordable one deems housing to be.

To your second point, I think you would be hard pressed to find any community where people didn't argue things were easier 40 years prior before skiing became mainstream. You cannot eliminate that resources are finite.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

My wife worked her way through college and regrets missing out on a lot of the college lifestyle stuff that is also important like building relationships, navigating new peer groups, finding interests and hobbies, etc

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That's me too. Except it was construction in the summers, and PT retail/restaurant etc during the year. And I literally do not have a single friend from college. I don't really regret it, but if I had a time machine, I would've done it differently.