Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by frorider

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ces-increasing

With infographics! ;)

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San Jose FTW!

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) on Wednesday announced that it would rescind a controversial loan-level pricing adjustment (LLPA) for conventional borrowers with debt-to-income (DTI) levels at or above 40%.
The FHFA, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, had previously delayed implementation of the DTI LLPA until August following a chorus of upset from mortgage industry stakeholders, including the influential Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Mortgage industry lobbyists and practitioners alike complained that the fee was "unworkable" and would result in logistical and compliance nightmares, as well as confusion and mistrust from borrowers.

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Every single housing article I've ever come across completely avoids the topic of entitlement. It is just assumed as a given that every person should have the god given right to live wherever they want, for whatever price they deem affordable. Like it or not, everyone isn't getting a beach house, or even just a house in their self determined perfect city, as if supply could be infinite with no restrictions at all.

That is not the case for several reasons, some geographic, some resource, and ultimately, some reasons are related to demand. Everyone wants a beach house, but that has an inherent supply restriction and ever increasing demand that no ADU or zoning regulation will ultimately fix.

Even the Guardian article points out several metro areas where housing is indeed still affordable. They happen to be in the midwest, but it seems to me to be a very recent development where people will not entertain any sort of compromise when it comes to housing, notably location related. People used to move for better opportunities, and did so for hundreds if not thousands of years, but post 2000 that mentality is a non-starter. The problem is never going away if people aren't cognoscente that you are not guaranteed to live in your perfect location for your perfect price.

Ski towns encapsulate this mentality perfectly. I can't tell you how many people I know that would perpetually bitch they couldn't afford a house in Jackson on their part time job that allowed them to skip work to ski or bike or take a month off down in Moab, oh and it better be dog friendly and definitely not an apartment.

^Well said. I'm not aware of a single housing market in the world that isn't in some way exclusionary.

Yeah, well when you look at county rents, some of those make zero sense to me. If one thinks Schenectady county is equal to Rockingham county, you'd be batshit crazy. There's no "entitlement" there.

My property tax valuation is now higher than Redfin / Zillow, has anyone had luck appealing their assessment on that basis?

Yeah! And fuck all those entitled teachers, nurses, cops,firefighters and office workers who want to live close to their jobs. Those people are the worst!


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Originally Posted by dan_pdx

My property tax valuation is now higher than Redfin / Zillow, has anyone had luck appealing their assessment on that basis?

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Tips Up is gonna bitch slap you with the facts on actual comps versus their branded pile of garbage data packaged for consumption

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Originally Posted by dan_pdx

My property tax valuation is now higher than Redfin / Zillow, has anyone had luck appealing their assessment on that basis?

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I assume it is done the same everywhere, but at the very least where I am the answer to your question is pointing at you and laughing.

Place around the corner from me (3/2.5 townhome in 94901) was listed for $895,000 just sold for $1,111,000 in about 3 weeks. There’s low supply.


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Originally Posted by Skistack

Yeah! And fuck all those entitled teachers, nurses, cops,firefighters and office workers who want to live close to their jobs. Those people are the worst!


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There are very few communities that do not have an affordable housing solution within a commutable distance. Even the Jackson’s of the world do. Just because you are a teacher doesn’t not mean you are guaranteed to live in one of the most desirable towns in the fucking world. You might need to commute. Thems the breaks.

Which before you cry foul on that, two teachers in Jackson, even starting out in year one, would have a combined household income of at least 150k. That buys you a condo in Teton Valley no problem (or the equivalent rent if you are single and have a roommate). But that doesn’t show well on IG so people bitch.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

two teachers in Jackson, even starting out in year one, would have a combined household income of at least 150k.

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So $75k a year each as first year teachers? I have to say BS. Do a Google search.

The average Teacher salary in Jackson, WY is $50,655as of , but the salary range typically falls between $42,362and $61,751. And that isn't year 1.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

So $75k a year each as first year teachers? I have to say BS. Do a Google search.

The average Teacher salary in Jackson, WY is $50,655as of , but the salary range typically falls between $42,362and $61,751. And that isn't year 1.

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FWIW most/many teachers i know work summer school, or tutoring/ or camp counselor, etc during the summers and so have 2 months pay unaccounted for there. The average salary for a teacher in my town is right at $60k according to public records, so a combined $120k/year for the family down the street. That affords you a 2/2 or 3/1 pretty easily.

Additionally, i would expect that a year 1-4 teach fresh out of college would likely have roommates to live with. Isnt that pretty normal for people in their early-mid 20s to split rent with other roommates?

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

So $75k a year each as first year teachers? I have to say BS. Do a Google search.

The average Teacher salary in Jackson, WY is $50,655as of , but the salary range typically falls between $42,362and $61,751. And that isn't year 1.

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2020-2021 CBA TETON SCHOOL DISTRICT 401 - Link: https://tsd401.org/wp-content/upload...-2020-21-1.pdf

Screenshot of salary schedule:
Attachment 458610


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Originally Posted by AdironRider

There are very few communities that do not have an affordable housing solution within a commutable distance. Even the Jackson’s of the world do. Just because you are a teacher doesn’t not mean you are guaranteed to live in one of the most desirable towns in the fucking world. You might need to commute. Thems the breaks.

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So what you’re saying is that they get to commute from the community they live in, provide your community with a huge benefit (education, emergency services, making your coffees, whatever), then go back into an underfunded schools system for their own kids cause fuck em?

54-46, You are using Teton County Idaho salaries and not Teton County Wyoming salaries, which are significantly higher. Liv, your google skills are off by the way as shown below.

See the below link for Teton County Wyoming payscales (chart on page 9). Teacher (with a masters, which the vast majority have) starts at $74,323 for 9 months work in year 1 for the current school year that is wrapping up. They'll be getting a COLA for this fall. That is with a pension that only costs them 2.68% of gross. No masters and you probably aren't getting hired in Teton County because, like we've covered already, everyone wants to live here.

https://www.boarddocs.com/wy/teton1/Board.nsf/files/CEBMF45AF8F3/$file/Emp%20Comp%20Package%20FY23%20-%20Pending%20BOE%20approval%20(4).pdf

This is called life fellas, and life isn't fair. Again, these poor teachers (your words not mine) with a fully guaranteed retirement can afford to live within 30 minutes of where they work, even in the richest county in the fucking country, while getting to enjoy pretty much unparalleled access to outdoor activity. They are totally getting fucked.......

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

You are using Teton County Idaho salaries and not Teton County Wyoming salaries, which are significantly higher.

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Well they sure as hell are not $75k a year as you suggested. Year 1, I am guessing more like $40k if really lucky.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Well they sure as hell are not $75k a year as you suggested. Year 1, I am guessing more like $40k if really lucky.

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I just updated my post to the payscale which proves you wrong.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

Ski towns encapsulate this mentality perfectly. I can't tell you how many people I know that would perpetually bitch they couldn't afford a house in Jackson on their part time job that allowed them to skip work to ski or bike or take a month off down in Moab, oh and it better be dog friendly and definitely not an apartment.

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Dude like wtf totally can happen and I'm living proof that is no issue and 100% doable buy a house ski town living and shit

Just took a 10 day vacation back in town for 3.5 days of work then on a plane for another trip

We still call it mud season still a thing

Oh wait never mind forgot its 2024

Showing up in the mid 90s before the internet ruined ski towns has its perks

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

So what you’re saying is that they get to commute from the community they live in, provide your community with a huge benefit (education, emergency services, making your coffees, whatever), then go back into an underfunded schools system for their own kids cause fuck em?

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What I'm saying, is even in one of the, if not the most desirable places in the country, a family of teachers can live comfortably within 30 minutes of their jobs starting out fresh out of school.

But way to illustrate my point, where even when that is possible, it is a non-starter in terms of the entitlement of people looking for housing in modern America.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

No masters and you probably aren't getting hired in Teton County because, like we've covered already, everyone wants to live here.

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Ha, actually it's the exact opposite. School districts these days don't want teachers with masters (or experience) because they are way more expensive to have on the payroll, and schools are chronically underfunded as we all know. They'll hire fresh out of college with a B.A. in education if they can. Especially if the person did their student teaching at the school and they got a chance to check you out and make sure you're not cray.

You want a masters, get a job first, then work on getting the advanced degree. And don't plan on moving anywhere because once you get expensive you're stuck.

Remember when Ketchum told teachers and EMTs to live in a tent city they weee going to build in their park and then all the teachers just moved to Idaho Falls and started teaching there instead?

That’s the mountain town blueprint. Rich second-homers DGAF about anyone but themselves

https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/lo...e-b1e379e0300a

You should see what Jackson pays firefighters.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

54-46, You are using Teton County Idaho salaries and not Teton County Wyoming salaries, which are significantly higher. Liv, your google skills are off by the way as shown below.

See the below link for Teton County Wyoming payscales (chart on page 9). Teacher (with a masters, which the vast majority have) starts at $74,323 for 9 months work in year 1 for the current school year that is wrapping up. They'll be getting a COLA for this fall. That is with a pension that only costs them 2.68% of gross. No masters and you probably aren't getting hired in Teton County because, like we've covered already, everyone wants to live here.

https://www.boarddocs.com/wy/teton1/Board.nsf/files/CEBMF45AF8F3/$file/Emp%20Comp%20Package%20FY23%20-%20Pending%20BOE%20approval%20(4).pdf

This is called life fellas, and life isn't fair. Again, these poor teachers (your words not mine) with a fully guaranteed retirement can afford to live within 30 minutes of where they work, even in the richest county in the fucking country, while getting to enjoy pretty much unparalleled access to outdoor activity. They are totally getting fucked.......

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Ah, OK. Fair enough. Wasn’t important enough to me to double check. Just putting out data.

Have similar issue where I live. Service people and teachers typically live 30 miles away (unless they want to live in low income housing with all the Latino kids they’re teaching).


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Originally Posted by zion zig zag

You should see what Jackson pays firefighters.

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Heh

Is anyone breeding in JH?
Who are the alleged children needing education?

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Ha, actually it's the exact opposite. School districts these days don't want teachers with masters (or experience) because they are way more expensive to have on the payroll, and schools are chronically underfunded as we all know. They'll hire fresh out of college with a B.A. in education if they can. Especially if the person did their student teaching at the school and they got a chance to check you out and make sure you're not cray.

You want a masters, get a job first, then work on getting the advanced degree. And don't plan on moving anywhere because once you get expensive you're stuck.

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I can definitively say this is not the case in New York State. Districts want experienced teachers whenever possible and are poaching tenured teachers from other Districts, which was nearly unheard of prior to the past two years.

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Originally Posted by BC13

I can definitively say this is not the case in New York State. Districts want experienced teachers whenever possible and are poaching tenured teachers from other Districts, which was nearly unheard of prior to the past two years.

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Glad to hear it. They have definitely gotten more desperate in some places. A few years ago there were 30 people applying for every job around here and they ALWAYS hired the cheapest one. And I can't blame them. Superintendent has final say on all hires and is also responsible for balancing the budget. Duh, why not save 15 grand by hiring the noob.

Part of the problem is the non-negotiable salary scale bargained for by the teachers unions. Works against teachers trying to move between districts. Favors teachers who "die in their tracks," as my former principal/boss used to say.

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

FWIW most/many teachers i know work summer school, or tutoring/ or camp counselor, etc during the summers and so have 2 months pay unaccounted for there. The average salary for a teacher in my town is right at $60k according to public records, so a combined $120k/year for the family down the street. That affords you a 2/2 or 3/1 pretty easily.

Additionally, i would expect that a year 1-4 teach fresh out of college would likely have roommates to live with. Isnt that pretty normal for people in their early-mid 20s to split rent with other roommates?

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We figuring housing affordability on gross wages now?

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

What I'm saying, is even in one of the, if not the most desirable places in the country, a family of teachers can live comfortably within 30 minutes of their jobs starting out fresh out of school.

But way to illustrate my point, where even when that is possible, it is a non-starter in terms of the entitlement of people looking for housing in modern America.

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Standards for lifestyle are quite a bit higher now, than they were a few decades ago. We as a society have become accustomed to be reliant on expensive technology and so expensive tech along with paid services tethered to the tech have become standard basics. The internet and social media tend to only push the positives (it gets more clicks) and success stories which sets unreasonably high expectations for everything from your first house, to what the dinner recipe should look like when you cook it. People finance and buy things on credit as the normal these days (and have for a few decades now) which allows them to obtain more and nicer things than they can actually afford which again raises their acceptable standard of living. And finally, lots of people in their 20s and 30s will not be as financially successful as their parents because millenials and genZ are more likely to prioritize "life" over career, which is fine, but that will likely come at the expense of the financial success/security that they grew up with.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

We figuring housing affordability on gross wages now?

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Sure, if you have/had a similar gross wage, with the same life situation, in the same area. Seems like a fair comparison, no?

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Originally Posted by yeahman

A few years ago there were 30 people applying for every job around here and they ALWAYS hired the cheapest one. And I can't blame them. Superintendent has final say on all hires and is also responsible for balancing the budget. Duh, why not save 15 grand by hiring the noob.

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That's called age discrimination. They let you get away with crap like that in race to the bottom places like Montana.

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

Standards for lifestyle are quite a bit higher now, than they were a few decades ago. We as a society have become accustomed to be reliant on expensive technology and so expensive tech along with paid services tethered to the tech have become standard basics. The internet and social media tend to only push the positives (it gets more clicks) and success stories which sets unreasonably high expectations for everything from your first house, to what the dinner recipe should look like when you cook it. People finance and buy things on credit as the normal these days (and have for a few decades now) which allows them to obtain more and nicer things than they can actually afford which again raises their acceptable standard of living. And finally, lots of people in their 20s and 30s will not be as financially successful as their parents because millenials and genZ are more likely to prioritize "life" over career, which is fine, but that will likely come at the expense of the financial success/security that they grew up with.

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You just defined some of the entitlement that he was discussing.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

We figuring housing affordability on gross wages now?

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Ha, this.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

What I'm saying, is even in one of the, if not the most desirable places in the country, a family of teachers can live comfortably within 30 minutes of their jobs starting out fresh out of school.

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How the hell are you deriving your supposed knowledge on the topic? IIRC - you no longer live near Jackson? I've worked at a school in the arguably other-most-desireable-and-expensive places in the country, for 11 years and this is absolutely not my experience. My school (private) and the public school here pay pretty well. No one is making $75k "fresh out of school" and very few teachers are "fresh out of school" without loans that need paying. Sure, plenty of double income households have bought homes or condos 30-40min away, but that reality is much farther out of reach in the last two years and probably wont change for a while.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

But way to illustrate my point, where even when that is possible, it is a non-starter in terms of the entitlement of people looking for housing in modern America.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

So what you’re saying is that they get to commute from the community they live in, provide your community with a huge benefit (education, emergency services, making your coffees, whatever), then go back into an underfunded schools system for their own kids cause fuck em?

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I get that you (AR) want to hang this all on people like me wanting entitlements and everything with a cherry on top, but the other half of the balance here (see Supermoon) is that the community at large wants their essential workers living nearby, being part of the community, sending their kids to its school and supporting it from the ground up. That's why our communities support affordable housing, vote for affordable housing and protections and that's why our communities oppose outside overreach (like the CO house bill).

It's easy for outsiders to peg the working class in mountain towns/resort communities as entitled cry babies wanting their cake and wanting to eat it all too (that's ultimately some manifestation of the [misguided] American Dream combined with human nature). To me, though, there's also a symbiotic relationship wherein a town needs to maintain a local population, local culture, local employees and some shade of reality to keep it's brand and maintain the look+feel that makes the place what it is and keeps the tourism dollars flowing. Weeks ago, in this thread, other posters gleefully stated that workers should just be commuting from hours away to support Jackson and Jackson-esque communities - solely because that's what the housing/free-market economy dictates. I would argue that no town, no resort and no regular visitor (in the long run) wants "their place" to be eroded from locals and character and turned into a soulless free-market outcome. It's easy to write it off as simple entitlement for "those of us who got lucky here" but there's a bigger picture to consider, especially if you enjoy living or coming to these communities that are quickly changing.

See here for an additional layer: https://www.aspendailynews.com/opini...73d0e6849.html

My above musings are not a new idea; us maggots have been indoctrinated by the concept for 35 years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhuHuQ1Bu3o

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

Standards for lifestyle are quite a bit higher now, than they were a few decades ago. We as a society have become accustomed to be reliant on expensive technology and so expensive tech along with paid services tethered to the tech have become standard basics. The internet and social media tend to only push the positives (it gets more clicks) and success stories which sets unreasonably high expectations for everything from your first house, to what the dinner recipe should look like when you cook it. People finance and buy things on credit as the normal these days (and have for a few decades now) which allows them to obtain more and nicer things than they can actually afford which again raises their acceptable standard of living. And finally, lots of people in their 20s and 30s will not be as financially successful as their parents because millenials and genZ are more likely to prioritize "life" over career, which is fine, but that will likely come at the expense of the financial success/security that they grew up with.

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This is fairly bullshit, honestly.
Technology is often pretty cheap, though things like cell phone bills have outstripped prior costs (though a $60 bill today is roughly $20 in 1980s dollars). Also things like appliances and clothes are cheaper than prior generations.
Schooling, medical and things like daycare are astronomical and housing is getting up there.
Sample graph to illustrate:
https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart...-or-century-5/
You need to stop reading bullshit old people talking points of why the kids are wrong.

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

Sure, if you have/had a similar gross wage, with the same life situation, in the same area. Seems like a fair comparison, no?

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No.

If you're not budgeting anything on take home pay I don't know what the fuck you're doing.

2 teachers grossing a combined $120,000 a year sure aren't bringing that home and let's not forget the $500/month HOA fee on top of the mortgage these teachers are needing to pay for that "affordable" condo.

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

That's why our communities support affordable housing, vote for affordable housing and protections and that's why our communities oppose outside overreach (like the CO house bill).

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Guys, don't you know. Aspen is special and has already figured this housing affordability issue out.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Guys, don't you know. Aspen is special and has already figured this housing affordability issue out.

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No, Aspen certainly hasn't figured it out, but neither has some State Rep from the Front Range or a former front-ranger who wants to educate us entitled mountain bumpkins while also enjoying/taking Aspen's attributes without contributing to its economy.

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Originally Posted by schuss

This is fairly bullshit, honestly.
Technology is often pretty cheap, though things like cell phone bills have outstripped prior costs (though a $60 bill today is roughly $20 in 1980s dollars). Also things like appliances and clothes are cheaper than prior generations.
Schooling, medical and things like daycare are astronomical and housing is getting up there.
Sample graph to illustrate:
https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart...-or-century-5/
You need to stop reading bullshit old people talking points of why the kids are wrong.

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IDK, im looking at cost of technology that is pretty standard today vs the cost back in the 80s or 90s. No smart phones, home computer was a luxury, cell bill, internet bill, streaming services etc. Plenty of friends who work lower paying jobs still buy organic foods and drink $12 sixers of microbrews. And that graph you provided kinda reinforces my point that these days more people have "things" that they didnt have growing up because the price has come down just enough to not be an unaffordable luxury (E.g. now people buy 2 TVs for $300 when before they would only buy 1 TV for $200 because they couldnt afford 2).

Im not reading talking points, FWIW, just comparing how i grew up and what we had, to what i see around me now. Im not saying we shouldnt strive to be better (starting with socializing healthcare).

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

IDK, im looking at cost of technology that is pretty standard today vs the cost back in the 80s or 90s. No smart phones, home computer was a luxury, cell bill, internet bill, streaming services etc. Plenty of friends who work lower paying jobs still buy organic foods and drink $12 sixers of microbrews. And that graph you provided kinda reinforces my point that these days more people have "things" that they didnt have growing up because the price has come down just enough to not be an unaffordable luxury (E.g. now people buy 2 TVs for $300 when before they would only buy 1 TV for $200 because they couldnt afford 2).

Im not reading talking points, FWIW, just comparing how i grew up and what we had, to what i see around me now. Im not saying we shouldnt strive to be better (starting with socializing healthcare).

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Yeah, if all those kids just gave up their iPhones it would only take them 200 years to save up a 20% down payment on a house. So irresponsible of them.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

No.

If you're not budgeting anything on take home pay I don't know what the fuck you're doing.

2 teachers grossing a combined $120,000 a year sure aren't bringing that home and let's not forget the $500/month HOA fee on top of the mortgage these teachers are needing to pay for that "affordable" condo.

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Im not budgeting based on gross, Im saying that my household made/makes the same gross, with the same life situation (kids, age, area etc) so i can pretty easily extrapolate what they can afford for housing. So yes, if 2 people in nearly identical situations gross the same, they will also net the same and should theoretically be able to afford the same.