Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

A bit under 100%. My mom bought a condo here in spring 2020 for $285K and by summer 2022 identical units were going for $550K.

Numerous units turned over and now the place is a bit of a ghost town. The new owners paid too much so now they need $3000-3500/mo or $250/night to cover costs. Doesn't seem to be working out for most of them.

Honestly, it feels like 2008 all over again. Outside money flooding the market looking for fast appreciation and a totally skewed real estate market about to fall off the cliff again.

As I've said before, supply and demand does not correlate with an organic demand for housing. Most of the supply and "demand" in Teton valley means a demand for lucrative, no-risk investments that outperform the stock market. Once the overnight riches stop, the demand falls off the cliff.

Around 25% of houses here are now STR. That's fucking retarded in a valley that sees 6 weeks of peak demand and 6 months of slow. I suspect the correction will be underway by the end of summer. Supposedly we're booming but tourism numbers are down 30% last year and the grocery store isn't too crowded with locals either. Last summer felt downright dead compared to the crazy of summer 2022. We'll see but I doubt it's a soft landing. We're so hopelessly addicted to development here that irrational optimism and willful blindness is a way of life.

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Sounds like an opportunity

Grab some of that million dollar new construction for a fraction

Taxes are the death blow

In Colorado the increases are oppressive

So high interest rates high maintenance costs on shit old houses and now crippling tax increases

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Originally Posted by fastfred

Taxes are the death blow

In Colorado the increases are oppressive

So high interest rates high maintenance costs on shit old houses and now crippling tax increases

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Most of CO seeing 40-50% increases while the high country will see 50-70% tax increases. It is so bad that fire districts have actually pulled some mill levy increases off the ballot this coming cycle in Vail! That never happens. I have had my place less than 10 years and my taxes will be 4x what they were at purchase with only about half of that effect being valuation.

Oh those state measures unbalancing residential and commercial take ratios and all those local tax hikes don't look like such good ideas now right? The renters are laughing at the owners... until the rent hikes arrive to offset the taxes.

Don't worry, the governor is here to save us with his proposal that save folks $100 or $200 in taxes a year when most are seeing their tax bills rise by $1000-$4000. Seriously, he is gonna exempt $40k of value and cut the state levy 0.06% (1% of the rate) and calling it tax relief. What a fucking joke.

Our taxes are going up here in town, they were ~$2500 in 2013, up to about $10k next year.
The property is worth about 6 or 7 times what we paid, so whatevs. Would be difficult for an older person on a fixed income to swing though, so that’s pretty rough.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Asking prices here in Driggs are up 50% in two years.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...94659882_zpid/

Mortgage rates two years ago- 2.625% APR
Mortgage rates today- 7.25% APR

Monthly Payments two years ago- $2400
Monthly payment today- $6486

Totally normal market behavior.

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Blast from the past! I built that house as a spec in 2009, figuring I was a contrarian genius. Ended up renting it until 2015 or so when I finally sold it for $275. Buyer sold a couple years ago, $650ish I think.

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Originally Posted by summit

Most of CO seeing 40-50% increases while the high country will see 50-70% tax increases. It is so bad that fire districts have actually pulled some mill levy increases off the ballot this coming cycle in Vail! That never happens. I have had my place less than 10 years and my taxes will be 4x what they were at purchase with only about half of that effect being valuation.
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85% here, yeeehaw https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/...e162eef85.html

Don't forget that your taxing entities set the millage annually. So check the dates, go to the meetings and kick the tires on the budget. The story that taxes go up lockstep with AV, is a false narrative.

Z'all good. Everyone lives in public housing there anyway.

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Originally Posted by summit

Most of CO seeing 40-50% increases while the high country will see 50-70% tax increases. It is so bad that fire districts have actually pulled some mill levy increases off the ballot this coming cycle in Vail! That never happens. I have had my place less than 10 years and my taxes will be 4x what they were at purchase with only about half of that effect being valuation.

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But I get yelled at for saying "thank Dog for Prop 13". :confused: People are funny.

I think you get yelled at about your defense of prop 13 because it is hypocritical to many positions you take elsewhere.

Don't getme wrong I'm not an anti tax asshole

But taxes jumping this much in 9ne year is insane

When the elected commissioners are idiots and when most of the budget is being pissed away on pet programs while roads crumble teachers get 1% pay raises

But we get a bloated high country conservative budget that some how helps dictate public policy

No thanks

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Originally Posted by fastfred

Don't getme wrong I'm not an anti tax asshole

But taxes jumping this much in 9ne year is insane

When the elected commissioners are idiots and when most of the budget is being pissed away on pet programs while roads crumble teachers get 1% pay raises

But we get a bloated high country conservative budget that some how helps dictate public policy

No thanks

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DEI directors and consultants don't come cheap.

Gas and diesel fees (tax) just got boosted in Colorado to benefit road projects. Will it go to roads or to pay for salary inflation that needs to happen to match the out of control cost of living?

Where are they going to get their gas fees when the majority of cars are electric?

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Originally Posted by mud

Where are they going to get their gas fees when the majority of cars are electric?

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I pay for this when registering my car in Utah as a flat fee. I could also enroll in paying by the mile but don't. All states will be like this soon.

Road use fees, something like the OReGo program in Oregon, but mandatory for electric vehicles, are no doubt coming. How it gets implemented is another question.

State site" https://www.myorego.org/

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Originally Posted by fastfred

Don't getme wrong I'm not an anti tax asshole

But taxes jumping this much in 9ne year is insane

When the elected commissioners are idiots and when most of the budget is being pissed away on pet programs while roads crumble teachers get 1% pay raises

But we get a bloated high country conservative budget that some how helps dictate public policy

No thanks

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Artificially capping property tax rates to blunt the 80+% increase in appraised value for high country real estate is the equivalent of Rent Control for the rich.

Two sides of the same coin.

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Originally Posted by Percy Rideout

Artificially capping property tax rates to blunt the 80+% increase in appraised value for high country real estate is the equivalent of Rent Control for the rich.

Two sides of the same coin.

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In CA, no bodies rent has gone up 4X in the last 9-10 years as Summit commented, so I find your comment being kind of full of it. While Prop 13 is not perfect (it should only apply to owner occ dwellings) it makes sense to me to limit politicians ability to raise taxes. Increasing property taxes just because values went bonkers is BS in my opinion. As in CA, people should be able to plan/know what their taxes will be down the road without the surprises most states toss out there. The property tax system in place in most states is BS IMO.

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Originally Posted by Percy Rideout

Artificially capping property tax rates to blunt the 80+% increase in appraised value for high country real estate is the equivalent of Rent Control for the rich.

Two sides of the same coin.

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Property tax should be based upon the sale price, with the yearly increase capped, and should never exceed 10% of the owners total net income for the year. IMO.

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Originally Posted by mud

Where are they going to get their gas fees when the majority of cars are electric?

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They don't plan for the year 3030 when that might be the case

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Originally Posted by muted reborn

I pay for this when registering my car in Utah as a flat fee. I could also enroll in paying by the mile but don't. All states will be like this soon.

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Certain states are just playing along with the culture war....I expect few states to agree on anything in the future

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Originally Posted by simple

Certain states are just playing along with the culture war....I expect few states to agree on anything in the future

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I don't know what you mean. If there is a culture war against EVs they will be taxed for road use without a doubt. And if they don't - OK.

I am super glad that we're discussing property taxes and whether they should be capped, such a fresh and new topic for the RE thread!

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Increasing property taxes just because values went bonkers is BS in my opinion. As in CA, people should be able to plan/know what their taxes will be down the road without the surprises most states toss out there. The property tax system in place in most states is BS IMO.

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This.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

In CA, no bodies rent has gone up 4X in the last 9-10 years as Summit commented, so I find your comment being kind of full of it. While Prop 13 is not perfect (it should only apply to owner occ dwellings) it makes sense to me to limit politicians ability to raise taxes. Increasing property taxes just because values went bonkers is BS in my opinion. As in CA, people should be able to plan/know what their taxes will be down the road without the surprises most states toss out there. The property tax system in place in most states is BS IMO.

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Idaho caps yearly increases to 3% plus new growth, so rates actually have been falling to offset rising values.

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Originally Posted by mud

Where are they going to get their gas fees when the majority of cars are electric?

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Well there was shooting at a Tesla charging station in the Denver area today.
Might slow the trend.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

100% tax valuation increase in Winter Park, CO. I’ve never seen a tax valuation so out of sync with market pricing. No way we could sell at tax valuation price.

They'll have to walk it all back after the crash, just like last time.

Rates should stabilize with this last .25 point increase. I think it will help the real estate market with a little less variability through the rest of 2023.

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Originally Posted by panchosdad

Idaho caps yearly increases to 3% plus new growth, so rates actually have been falling to offset rising values.

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Is that new, because that definitely was not the case for my house in Victor.

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Originally Posted by lowsparkco

Rates should stabilize with this last .25 point increase. I think it will help the real estate market with a little less variability through the rest of 2023.

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What's so special about THIS .25 increase?

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Originally Posted by ski-wpk

100% tax valuation increase in Winter Park, CO. I’ve never seen a tax valuation so out of sync with market pricing. No way we could sell at tax valuation price.

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Saw the same thing. Anyone been through the appeal process before? Level of effort?

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

85% here, yeeehaw https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/...e162eef85.html

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What's the likely outcome when each county sees a 50-100% increase in tax receipts. With TABOR, won't we end up just getting refunds for the difference?

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Originally Posted by joeshek

Saw the same thing. Anyone been through the appeal process before? Level of effort?

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I've not done an appeal in Grand County, but the process is pretty easy in Boulder County.

The increase in AV does not cause an increase in taxes. All the municipalities and special districts set the mill rate and approve an annual budget in a fairly transparent public process.

Don't have faux internet outrage. You may have a limited ability to affect changes. But you do know the ability to educate yourself, own your opinion, and let'r rip! This is a great opportunity to come out of your shell and tell people how you feel with very limited down side.

Get some talking points. Make a quick outline and email it such that it becomes part of the record. Log on to the Zoom and have at it in public comment.

Ours increased 27% (just received the valuation notice yesterday) and the current value seems pretty close to what things have been selling for...

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Originally Posted by simple

What's so special about THIS .25 increase?

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The Fed specifically called out they don’t foresee needing to raise rates again after this increase.

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The Fed specifically called out they don’t foresee needing to raise rates again after this increase.

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Buy the rumor, sell the news. This is actually what Jay Powell said, "“A decision on a pause was not made today”.

So unless your been studying Fed Speak since Greenspan, sit in from of a Bloomberg Terminal with high blood pressure, probably best to realize that none of us can see too far past the end of our noses.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

Is that new, because that definitely was not the case for my house in Victor.

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The 3% cap is a limit on how much an Idaho county can annually increase the portion of budget funded by property tax.

There is no legal limit on tax increases for specific properties due to their appreciation.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

The 3% cap is a limit on how much an Idaho county can annually increase the portion of budget funded by property tax.

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Can they go over this with a truth in taxation hearing? Bonds?