Printable View
It's shifted for sure, but how much is not yet clear. My organization, like lots of others, has become ok with mostly remote work, but it's gently trying to pull people back in to the office more. And office presence is almost certainly going to help with advancement opportunities.
I'm not sure where exactly the balance in the WFH vs office is going to wind up.
He's North Bend, WA. 30 miles East of Seattle.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackstraw
CG, that's nuts, but similar in Issaquah/Sammamish. 2 friends put houses up for $1.2M (starter home around here 🥸) and both sold with multiple offers in 1 day. Our friends a little upmarket ($2.2M) put theirs up a week ago and it's still on the market.
In Powell Butte (rural area near Bend.). Almost tripled my money in 8 years. Hard to fathom this strange new world, but I ain’t complaining.Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_pdx
Same. When I used to post jobs, I'd get 5-20 apps for experienced analyst positions.Quote:
Originally Posted by S_jenks
Now I get well over 600 because I have a fully remote team - better talent pool.
My company is selling a big building near me because no one goes in and reducing HQ footprint as well. Makes sense for most as given we're a global company, nearly everything was a call regardless because people are spread across the country and the world. Now we get to ditch office expense, offer more flexibility, pay is lower vs. what it would be because we can offer and pay at lower CoL vs. city-only positions. Really the only reason to pull people back in the office is if you don't actually know how to set goals and manage people.
Culture is suffering a little, but I'm confident that will get figured out.
Also - absolutely no one misses their commutes. Many people are getting 2+ hours a day back that had to commute into major cities.
Can you imagine the amount of pollution that is avoided without all these folks commuting to work every day? I mean, that has to be a positive for almost everyone but oil companies and car manufacturers.
I asked the new new bend transplants what they do
he is studying to be an electrician and she does breath work since I have dated a yoga teacher and know about all the woowe shit atempting to start a convo about breath work was unusual eh
i think they did really well on the RE
Now they've come to ruin your town.Quote:
Originally Posted by XXX-er
well at least they are not American eh ?
in any case I'm pretty sure i already did that 17 yars ago,
as Mark Perry the local Troubador writes " the right people come and the right people stay " and its always been that way
they seem unusual enough to fit in
Just for another anecdote, we bought our place in Sandy for $375k in 2017. We just listed at $675K and went under contract the same weekend at $10k over (had multiple offers). In contrast, the place we just bought was on the market for 9 months. There is definitely a big difference in sales velocity for "starter" homes (which obviously is a relative $$ based on market).
Sent from my SM-S908U using TGR Forums mobile app
Well, except that all those fuckers are clogging the chairlifts, the grocery stores, and the bike trails at 11:00 am, when they should be at work. :the_fingeQuote:
Originally Posted by Name Redacted
A median price SFH in Boise in September 2020 was $388K. At 2.625% APR, you can finance $388K at $1,558 per month.Quote:
Originally Posted by Conundrum
As of February 2023, the midian price SFH in Boise was $471k. At 7.25% APR, you can finance $471k at $3,200 per month.
Current prices in Boise require a mortgage payment more than 2x that of 2.5 years ago.
Good thing I was smarter or quicker than everyone by buying 20 years ago but haven't "moved up" yet. Still envious of those that bought 20 years ahead of me. It's all relative...yay "free market".Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
"Buying a Payment" is such a shitty life. @Kevo of the interest rates, payments and home prices you posted, which ones do you think are sustainable and are gonna stick?
I'll put my money on the 7.25% and the 388k. Go kick the tires on what some outfit like DR Horton or KB pays to build a home all in. Any substantial reduction in the dollar cost of house needs giant changes to expectations and methodologies. Its like higher education and medicine.
As mentioned, shit is fucked. I have not idea what the desirable locations will look like in ten years but the trend isn't good. The virtual job does not seem compatible with meat space services. $1K service calls for plumbers and electricians are just around the corner.
Right now I'm working on a deck rebuild that costs $120K. Homeowner had to wait two years to get scheduled. Going rate for our laborer to hump materials and throw away garbage is $35/hr. New homes on the street with $2mill build costs go weeks without contractors on site.
So the laptop class like to talk about the new normal of WFH. We the new normal for interacting face to face with a human might be that none of us can afford it.
After spending a decade plus in a ski town waiting for a contractor to never show up I started learning how to do most of the shit myself. It isn't rocket science and it doesn't require a college degree, but it does require labor, sometimes hard labor. I even sprung for some overpriced Festool stuff for my tool quiver and still came out way ahead than paying the going rate.
My buddies used to bitch and moan about not being able to get anything done, and when they were able to, how expensive it was. Then would hop in their mtn bro Tacoma and go do a cross fit class. I just huffed around a bunch of boards and spent the same amount of time staying in decent shape and saved a bunch of money, but it wasn't great IG material.
ha haQuote:
Originally Posted by Conundrum
#me too bitches
didn't really think much at that 7% plus interest I had to pay almost twenty years ago either
everyone was talking game back then I'd fix the dump up make a killing and move up to a bigger better house
that still has yet to happen lol
Haven’t heard that before, I like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
@Adiron
Some people don't like math. Would you rather be cross fit instructor or a plumber? What I do know is that from now until the end of time, every property will need maintenance.
Here is a bit of a mind fuck regarding the "how" of mountain properties are being afforded. In Grand County USA, there is a trend, mostly with among families with kids, to moving in to or upgrading there second home. People are ditching their city house and going full time here. Maybe the keep a condo or apt for if they have to "go to the office".
We probably have about 5k primary residents in the Fraser River Valley. Every weekend powder day 18k ish people go to the ski area. 20years ago those people couldn't live here for one reason or another, mostly job. Now that there job can be done from here, they live here.
My hypothesis is that prices are going to break and come down, at least on average across most MLS regions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
For better or worse, most people buy houses with a mortgage and most people can't come up with 2x the payment of two years ago. Things are currently backstopped because of limited supply, but if supply goes up...
Colorado is proposing doing away with most local land use controls in "mountain resort zones" and cities in order to get people to build housing, ostensibly "for workers." A major focus is allowing any SFH to build an ADU even tiny house/glorified heated shed style.
Parking? Who cares!
Water? Who cares!
Transit? Who cares!
Walkability? Who cares!
Inability to require deed restriction? Who cares!
Building spacing, utility access, and snow removal? Who cares!
A bunch more AirBnBs get built? Who cares!
Every single mountain town saying this is FUCKED? Who cares!
Front Range City Dem Politicians know what is best for your community, citizen!
It personally helps me cuz I'll build an ADU, move into it, and Airbnb my place.
No doubt on maintenance.
I guess my point is there is a limit to what people can handle/afford. When your house is flooding you don't necessarily have time to wait for the ski town's one plumber to show up, and even the laptop class has a limit to how many 1k service calls they can spring before something gives.
This reminds me of the wolf reintroduction vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
Somebody link the articles about WPs application process for affordable housing, Eagles Countys audit of deed restriction violations, the proposed alternatives to the Colorado Compact and so on.
A friend of mine's kid is living the dream in Des Moines, IA. Colorado is fucked. But it's way more good that bad for me and I'm in deep.
Like Summit, I just need that back yard ADU so I can afford to work less.
Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Name Redacted
No, its just classic burden shifting. That suburban air pollution just becomes water and air pollution in some mountain town that's being assraped by developers. You can't add hundreds of homes per year to rural counties that lack infrastructure without serious consequences. The local river here is shit compared to ten years ago and it's a direct result of adding 1000 houses.
Everyone wants to live here and but this ain't no rising tide lifting all boats. The big joke is we still have minimal infrastructure for basic things, like healthcare, water treatment, solid waste and road maintenance. Home prices and developer's profits skyrocket, roads get packed, a couple new restaurants open....but all the important shit that needs to be improved just stays the same or gets worse.
Just burden shifting, aka progress, American style.
just bought ten toilets and a bunch of plumbing fixtures
I'm going to smoke a bowl now then argue with myself do I ski or ride a bike?
then wonder how I ended up getting here
always gotta be ahead of the curve I guess reading a guide book or searching the internet for the "best places to live" will do that to a town
On what do you base this and over what period of time? I'd like to see it happen but hard to see how it does.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Let Locals DecideQuote:
Originally Posted by summit
Sign the petition opposing the CO state taking over land controls:
www.LetLocalsDecide.com
Eh, even as someone that enjoys the local control of zoning etc. - mountain towns haven't done themselves any favors from all the whining I've seen here.
There are tons of deed restricted units under construction and more planned. I see a fevered effort to build tons of deed restricted units in progress. But they pay attention to things like: is there transit? is there water? is there parking? can the roads handle the extra traffic?Quote:
Originally Posted by schuss
What the front range politicians are proposing is absolute wild west mayhem for mountain towns without any expectation that this housing will benefit workers in the mountain communities. It will actually make the problems worse. Building ADUs that are going to be affordable to working class people, and I mean affordable for the renter and the owner, means building a tiny homes at best. But what owner would do that when they could finance a larger ADU and AirBnB it, or live in it when they AirBnB their house? Then those AirBnBs have infrastructure and commercial needs that require spending and workers that don't exist.
And what about the unplanned density causing insane infrastructure spending requirements that would be spread out on all people in the community? If you have to build new water plants and pumping stations and everyone's water/sewage bills double, that fucks the all the workers in order to benefit the homeowners who build ADUs.
Hell this allows the building of ADUs on rural SFH zoned properties 2 miles up dirt roads where there is no transit, no walkability, no bikeability to town. Wear and tear on roads? Is this desirable densification?
It's unplanned fuckery spewing for from the asshole of city-borne-good-ideas. Central planning sucks donkey balls. There is no nuance or rationale consideration. The bill expressly forbids such things.
Building freestanding ADUs is expensive as fuck. There is a reason why all workforce housing is condos/apts and occasionally townhomes, and still it is more expensive than most can afford.
Mountain politicians who are huge supporters of workforce housing universally oppose this bill as written.
Do you know who supports it? DEVELOPERS... and people who don't live in the communities that will be affected! <-there's your clue!
Not a comment on the CO proposal (haven’t read), but letting locals make the decisions is responsible for, like, 90% of the housing issues in this country.
Reality checks don't matter. There will always be a bogeyman to blame.
The CO bill is a city oriented solution for densification of zones that have run out of developable land where densification is the only solution and zoning prevents it.
The mountain zones have NOT run out of land, like the cities. There's tons of room to build workforce condos in the mountains. Those can be built in quantity sufficient to actually have a large effect on the need at a more efficient price point.
You want to solve the problem, focus on making the local worker competitive to the market forces:
1. Stop allowing wage suppression by the resort
2. Downpayment support
3. Allow and legislatively motivate construction of new workforce housing developments on the gobs on undeveloped land that does exist, much of it owned by the resorts that demand someone solve the housing problem for the workers they exploit (but the companies and developers would rather develop it into open market condos).
The problem with housing in mountain communities isn't a lack of density in SFH zones, where they exist, nor will free market ADUs be a solution and will likely worsen the problem and create new ones. Deed restricted ADUs won't get built in any number unless they are tiny homes, and is that what we really want?
Around here, approximately 25% of all housing is now tied up in short term vacation rentals. The market is saturated and getting competitive. A price war is starting and hosts with high ownership costs are going to get squeezed. For example, a guy down the street thought he'd be getting at least 50-60% occupancy at $1000/night during ski season; he got 10%, a two week booking over the holidays. My neighbor, who rents at a more reasonable $250/night and has five years of repeat guests to draw on saw his occupancy drop from appx. 85% to maybe 40-50% for the season. Airbnb is doing its hosts just like Uber did its drivers. They're making bank on volume and the host/driver gets hammered by the dilution.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazderati
Once capitulation starts in the short term market, stagnation or a slight decline in price will trigger the flippers to start panicking. Then potential new buyers start sitting tight and waiting for for the bottom. Owner/investors with high ownership costs then start to panic as their mortgage goes underwater. Developers with unfinished projects and their financiers shit the bed as prices drop below their break even. Panic ensues.
I recently overheard a conversation between a Jackson architect and an interior designer. The architect confided that his firm was "shifting resources" from Jackson to Denver and SLC because the mountain town boom days are on the wane.
Fascinating and very logicalQuote:
Originally Posted by neckdeep
Airbnbust.Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
The Superbowl is literally peak demand for short term rentals but 40% of vacation rentals were unoccupied in Phoenix over Superbowl weekend. The other 51 weekends are much more grim.
Its happening everywhere. The dream of easy passive income is being replaced with declining occupancy and stiff competition on price, quality and location, location, location. Hosts who bought in at the top of the market are in for a rude surprise: just like Uber, Airbnb only cares about its stock price.
Uber diluted its driver's pay and then told them they needed to spend on expensive vehicles to compete. Airbnb is in the process of doing the same but with real estate.
"My neighbor, who rents at a more reasonable $250/night and has five years of repeat guests to draw on saw his occupancy drop from appx. 85% to maybe 40-50% for the season. "
wow ^^ who would have known that an STR LL actulay competes for their tennants just like any business ?
I don't charge enough for my LTR but I have had full occupency for 12 years and I don't do anything
Very well said.Quote:
Originally Posted by neckdeep
Interesting to see the stats from your neighbors and the guy down the street. I had heard bookings were down- those numbers are pretty substantial.
There is so much new development going on at the moment here- 30 new 500 sq foot studio apartments in downtown Driggs that are being rented for $1500 per month, a new affordable housing apartment complex new door to the studios, 30 or 40 new townhomes on the south side of town with $800k asking prices. My little neighborhood in town had 7 new SFHs in the past year and countless houses being built in other neighborhoods inside and outside city limits.
How many people are there that want to spend $6K per month to live in a tightly packed townhome 20 feet off to the busiest road in the county? What are the chances that people STRing said townhomes would be able to come close to covering the mortgage payment? I really feel like something has to give.
That said, this whole hypothesis goes out the window if Targhee ends up on the epic/ikon shitshow.
Agree with Neckdeep and Kevo here. I'm seeing it in smaller B and C towns in NM and CO. All those Texans and Okies are starting to dump their vacay homes and condos. I think too many ppl are giving airbnb too much leeway and personally I think they should be restricted. Some towns, albeit not in CO, are starting to figure this out, though too little, too late overall. But the saturation is there and mom n pop second home owners are starting to bail as word on the economic street calls for tightening. Desirable resort towns will continue to be insulated from this I think but time will tell.
Summit- you're part of the workforce you know, you just happened to get yours before it was too late. ;) It's all relative. Newcomers won't be allowed to profit off their home (if they can afford one), unlike people who got there before them. All new affordable homes, townhomes, condos being deed-restricted is whack. American dream is dead as the classes get further divided. It's totally fucked.
Since NM legalized weed there are more than a few homes for sale on the cheap in Weed Town, USA (Trinidad). Apparently, it's the newest hotspot, if you like wind and old and/or homeless people. Lots of trail building going on down there apparently.. See, opportunity still abounds, you just have to be comfortable living within a 3-mile radius of over 60 sexual offenders. Lol.
Personally, I think HOA's need to be reigned in a bit. I don't have my head in the sand, have always avoid HOAs up to this point, but this was kind of eye-opening to me on a different level, just watched it last night. It's a bit long, 25 min.
https://youtu.be/qrizmAo17Os
oh shit
I been working from home all morning in a ski town still wearing my pjs sitting in front of the computer posting on tgr
that makes me a bad guy I guess
IMHO, the Covid exodus and STR market are just new wrinkles. The real driver here is the same as it was 2005-2008: rapid appreciation feeds on itself. It's not based on organic supply and demand for housing, which factors in the incomes of locals. Its wholly based upon a demand for easy money in real estate and a supply of lax development regulations. Once the seemingly "guaranteed" big profits stop, the whole thing falls apart until prices come back in line with incomes. In 2008, that was a 60% price decline.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Something probably similar will happen again or else Jackson businesses will soon be paying $40/hour for entry level jobs. As it is now, worker can't afford to drive the pass and pay $1500/m on anything less than $30. That's assuming anyone wants to work 40, drive 2 hours a day and live in a shoebox ont the highway just to break even. Shit, most of those employees at the grocery store in driggs are getting bused in from Rexburg and the workers at the Albertsons in Jackson are being shipped in from Turkey and Romania.
We agree on this. That is why I support downpayment assistance and oppose appreciation caps.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax