Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by altasnob

No, I'm talking to foundation guys who run big companies. They will surely do everything permitted if that's what I want to do. But they also seem more than willing to go wild west if that's what I want. Then they share anecdotal stories of their friends in other sectors of the business.

My impression in these big, expensive cities is that the big developers can comply with all the rules because they have to, and have economies of scale. But regular home owners are overwhelmed. Same for mom and pop landlords. I see lots of really run down old homes around here despite the real estate price explosion in the last few years.

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I am one of those foundation guys. When referring to structural concrete, we follow the plans as drawn by the SE. How do you pass inspection otherwise, especially on a big commercial job?

To your point, we have to sometimes field engineer and change certain details because the architect/SE can't be bothered to get out of the office to see where the rubber meets the road (and see why what they drew creates a conflict between the trades, but since many don't understand the basics of each trade i get why this is a recurring problem). We do the legwork to create an RFI. Those changes are then approved in writing by the SE and Inspector prior to pouring.

When reading plans, good basic rules to follow:
-Structural: Follow these to the tee, unless it's a residential remodel with many VIF's. (Verify in field) have the SE on speed dial for this one.
-Architectural: OK i see what you are trying to build, but you failed to realize the problem you created where this trade meets this trade. Can we make this small change so you don't fuck over the framers 3 months down the line?
-Landscape: I know you drew this beautiful complicated and expensive yard with giant retaining walls. The original budget has ballooned, the project is delayed, and the homeowner wants to move in. Value engineer this shit, now.

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Originally Posted by Danno

I hear Mexico City is nice.

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Mexico City is nice (well, at least the wealthy parts). Might be the coolest, most European-like city in North America. Unfortunately, word is out and all the work from home gringos have moved in. So now it is expensive and people will start shitting on the sidewalk any day now.

As Remote Workers Flock to Mexico City, Airbnb and Housing Prices Soar
American and Europeans are using Airbnb to find long-term rentals in Mexico’s capital, pushing housing costs higher and, critics say, forcing out local residents.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/28/w...e-workers.html

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Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper

Well, at least it won’t take long at all to learn, given the pinchey amount of stuff Houston is doing right.

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How Houston Moved 25,000 People From the Streets Into Homes of Their Own
The nation’s fourth-largest city hasn’t solved homelessness, but its remarkable progress can suggest a way forward.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/h...ss-people.html

HAH if I got a call for every V.I.F. I put on a set of plans I would stop doing it and go verify it myself in the first place.

Y'all know there is such thing as "The Existing Building Code". It allows you to remodel "existing legal non-conforming" buildings without having to tear down the things or bring them fully up to modern building codes...

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Originally Posted by altasnob

How Houston Moved 25,000 People From the Streets Into Homes of Their Own
The nation’s fourth-largest city hasn’t solved homelessness, but its remarkable progress can suggest a way forward.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/h...ss-people.html

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Meanwhile, the lack of zoning presents other huge problems…or is that opportunities?

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Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper

Meanwhile, the lack of zoning presents other huge problems…or is that opportunities?

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The whole idea of zoning is being turned on its head in these expensive West Coast states with soaring housing costs, and the homelessness that comes with that. CA and OR have already gotten rid of single family zoning at the state level. They had to do it at the state level becuase the uppity cities refuse to budge. So you have to shove it down their throat whether they want it or not. Washington is currently considering doing the same (replacing single family zoning with 4 or 6 units depending on how close to transit). Washington is also considering getting rid of the cities' design review process. Again, they are doing this at the state level because the cities are filled with rich NIMBY snobs that prevent change like this from occurring.

https://www.kuow.org/stories/design-...shington-state

In other words, the latest trends we are seeing is exactly what I am talking about. Cut the red tape. Get rid of the bureaucracy. Make construction costs cheaper. These are Democrats pushing these ideas. Not anti government libertarians.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/11/11550...ing-affordable

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Originally Posted by altasnob

The whole idea of zoning is being turned on its head in these expensive West Coast states with soaring housing costs, and the homelessness that comes with that. CA and OR have already gotten rid of single family zoning at the state level. They had to do it at the state level becuase the uppity cities refuse to budge. So you have to shove it down their throat whether they want it or not. Washington is currently considering doing the same (replacing single family zoning with 4 or 6 units depending on how close to transit). Washington is also considering getting rid of the cities' design review process. Again, they are doing this at the state level because the cities are filled with rich NIMBY snobs that prevent change like this from occurring.

https://www.kuow.org/stories/design-...shington-state

In other words, the latest trends we are seeing is exactly what I am talking about. Cut the red tape. Get rid of the bureaucracy. Make construction costs cheaper. These are Democrats pushing these ideas. Not anti government libertarians.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/11/11550...ing-affordable

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If you think Houston’s zoning practices, and the results, are something positive and worth emulating then…I’m not surprised. Your shallow and ill-considered conjectures are nothing new here.

Let the homeless squat in the abandoned office buildings.

Done. Crisis solved.


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Originally Posted by altasnob

My parents live in Mexico, about three hours from Mexico City

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By plane?

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My parents ...have been traveling around Mexico for the last 20+ years.

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One set of my wealthy boomer parents live in a gated McMansion in Hawaii. They've been to all of the islands over the past 20+ years, playing golf, complaining about taxation and the local work ethic, while lying by the pool drinking cocktails. So clearly, they know the plight of the indigenous Maoli people, and by logical extension, I'm qualified to pontificate about it on the internet /s

You can't compare per capita because there are no actual homeless numbers for cdmx. Poverty on the other hand is generally estimated between 30 and 40%. Lack of reliable potable water is estimated at 10% (2.2 million). So while American tourists and ex-pats are sitting in a Polanco cafe sipping a cafe con leche over their huevos ahogados, less than 40 miles away there are 2.2 million people worrying about running out of fucking drinking water. One of the world's largest mega-slums is only 20ish miles (not that white people who aren't aid workers could even find it on map).

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at least they aren't passed out in front of businesses taking shits on the sidewalk

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Again, you're telling me you've never been out of the tourist zone and don't actually know what you're talking about. Yeah, I've definitely seen that just as much as here. The policia roust them back into the shadows. Also assuming you weren't aggressively pan handled? Nobody tried to rob you at knife point? Never saw the tent cities?

It's like saying I went to Bellevue last week and didn't see any homeless people, so Seattle must've solved the crisis.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Let the homeless squat in the abandoned office buildings.

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Did y'all just move here from Aspen? Homeless have been taking shits in vacant buildings here for decades. Here's an article from 2015 describing all the squatters running from the old Seattle Times building, with stolen goods in hand, when police showed up to try to secure it. It was pointless, as the squatters were back inside by nightfall.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...l-for-seattle/

The homeless had fires going inside that McMenamins Elk Temple before it was renovated.

Man you really fucking love McMennamins

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Did y'all just move here from Aspen? Homeless have been taking shits in vacant buildings here for decades.

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Duh. I said "let them." Don't chase them out.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Man you really fucking love McMennamins

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I do. The food sucks and is overpriced. The beer mediocre. But they are one of only entities around buying these old ass buildings and pouring millions into them to get them fixed up.

Dude, Edgefield is a pretty frickin fun place to spend a day or two.

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Originally Posted by nickwm21

Done. Crisis solved.

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Have we considered moving them underground? What could go wrong?

Attachment 448684

Can someone verify that alta schlub isn't some 14 year old posting from his parents basement

If you were offered 15% of your home value to put a deed restriction on your home would you do it?

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Originally Posted by Conundrum

Dude, Edgefield is a pretty frickin fun place to spend a day or two.

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Yeah. Edgefield is cool, and the soaking pool in their Bend hotel is fun. Otherwise I think they are a bit overrated.

Im just more baffled that anyone would bring them up like six times. Never met a ride-or-die fan before. Lol

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Yeah. Edgefield is cool, and the soaking pool in their Bend hotel is fun. Otherwise I think they are a bit overrated.

Im just more baffled that anyone would bring them up like six times. Never met a ride-or-die fan before. Lol

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Altasnob likely has one of their passports. Get a stamp for each hotel location you stay/visit. It's a thing.

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Originally Posted by Name Redacted

If you were offered 15% of your home value to put a deed restriction on your home would you do it?

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We need to talk if your seriously considering it there are pros and cons feel free to reach out

If you are desperate for the money I understand the need

I have had this discussion many times w many people alot of people have taken the cash which is taxable income even though many pretend its not I can help weigh the options I won't tell you what to do but I do lean towards NO

A friend is buying a house in the cove and deed restricting it on purchase because of the cost

Bad idea in my book but big cost four kids it makes sense for him

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Originally Posted by altasnob

It's leftist populism. Watch out, because it is rampant in Seattle and it is bound to spread to other cities in the West, like Denver. It's already taken over Aspen.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Did y'all just move here from Aspen? Homeless have been taking shits in vacant buildings here for decades.

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Really REALLY hung up on the Aspen thing still, huh?

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Originally Posted by fastfred

We need to talk if your seriously considering it there are pros and cons feel free to reach out

If you are desperate for the money I understand the need

I have had this discussion many times w many people alot of people have taken the cash which is taxable income even though many pretend its not I can help weigh the options I won't tell you what to do but I do lean towards NO

A friend is buying a house in the cove and deed restricting it on purchase because of the cost

Bad idea in my book but big cost four kids it makes sense for him

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We aren't considering it, but some friends/neighbors are. For them I guess it ain't a bad option. I just feel like the ~$200K we would get would be less than what we'd lose if we ever sold. But we plan on staying forever anyway. It is just an interesting decision to run the numbers on.

Aspen the town itself is moderately cool. It's bubble of wealth that has been put over it like a dome is peak ski town.

Roaring Fork Valley is waaaay overrated, IMO. If you like Front Range traffic commutes, "feeling close enough" to Aspen to call yourself a "local" from the "Aspen Area", and like to pretend your mountain biking is better than Eagle County, then it's the right place for you. Plus, bowling in El Jebel.

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Originally Posted by Name Redacted

We aren't considering it, but some friends/neighbors are. For them I guess it ain't a bad option. I just feel like the ~$200K we would get would be less than what we'd lose if we ever sold. But we plan on staying forever anyway. It is just an interesting decision to run the numbers on.

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it makes no sense to do it
deed restricting a million dollar home??? so working locals are going to start buying deed restricted million dollar homes?
I saw a townhome deed restricted about a year ago at claim jumper condos in breck (not really a great development unless you like soviet architecture) listed for 800k someone bought it
sure if I'm hard up for some cash 200k sounds great for short term gain long term loss
been in my house just about twenty years now and unfortunately I'm stuck here for the foreseeable future it's worth 3-4 times what I paid for it

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

Really REALLY hung up on the Aspen thing still, huh?

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I am fascinated by the rise of leftist populism in this country. For major cities, Seattle and San Francisco are the epicenters. For small cities/towns, that's Aspen and there isn't even a close second. Aspen is particularly interesting to me becuase it's a giant social experiment being played out in real life. After you live there a few decades please report back and give us your candid thoughts on this experiment.

Paying people to deed restrict their million dollar home seems like more leftist populism to me. Who monitors these deed restricted houses? How much money does it take to monitor that? Seems like the main restriction imposed by Summit County is no short term rental less than 90 days and one of the people in the house has to work at least 30 hours a week for a business located "in and serving Summit County." You can retire, or partially retire, at any point and not be in violation. If you do get caught violating the restriction, there is no penalty if you get back into compliance within 30 days of first notice. Seems really easy to exploit. I can't believe these places have this kind of money to throw around.

^^^ they literally have millions and millions of dollars to throw around

any sort of "affordable housing tax" is always voted yes on in the form of a sales tax and real estate transfer tax anything green and affordable housing like goes right to the front of the tax increase line

breckenridge followed aspen with some tweaks the rest of the country is following us and aspen
it's not perfect but it works

our enforcement isn't as hardcore as aspen yet but as more people abuse the system it will get that way
I know one guy who lives in a single family home deed restricted he also still owns his one bedroom deed restricted condo which he rents out to a "local workforce member" he makes money on the rental income plus the appreciation which I'm not sure if it's capped or not his plan is to sell mortgage will be paid for by the time he sells plus the additional income and the sale money will pay for his kids college education

guess you could call that unfair and milking the system but handouts are handouts and capitalism and all

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Originally Posted by altasnob

I am fascinated by the rise of leftist populism in this country. For major cities, Seattle and San Francisco are the epicenters. For small cities/towns, that's Aspen and there isn't even a close second. Aspen is particularly interesting to me becuase it's a giant social experiment being played out in real life. After you live there a few decades please report back and give us your candid thoughts on this experiment.

Paying people to deed restrict their million dollar home seems like more leftist populism to me. Who monitors these deed restricted houses? How much money does it take to monitor that? Seems like the main restriction imposed by Summit County is no short term rental less than 90 days and one of the people in the house has to work at least 30 hours a week for a business located "in and serving Summit County." You can retire, or partially retire, at any point and not be in violation. If you do get caught violating the restriction, there is no penalty if you get back into compliance within 30 days of first notice. Seems really easy to exploit. I can't believe these places have this kind of money to throw around.

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You need hobbies that aren't conspiracy theorism. SF is run by the rich for the rich. There's a reason tourist stuff doesn't run in pac heights, for example.
In the new age of airbnb and other relatively low-barrier vacation rental stuff, communities are trying to figure out how to retain a proper "community" and have access to housing for people that aren't vacationers or vacation house providers. It's not a solved problem and enforcement at the small municipal level is always tough as typically everyone knows each other (or close to) in smaller communities. Are you willing to dick over your neighbor for airbnbing during the holidays when they're out of town? The human factor is hard to deal with, but it needs to get figured out as otherwise it will be investment houses and the super rich that own the entirety of vacation areas.

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Originally Posted by schuss

You need hobbies that aren't conspiracy theorism. SF is run by the rich for the rich. There's a reason tourist stuff doesn't run in pac heights, for example.
In the new age of airbnb and other relatively low-barrier vacation rental stuff, communities are trying to figure out how to retain a proper "community" and have access to housing for people that aren't vacationers or vacation house providers. It's not a solved problem and enforcement at the small municipal level is always tough as typically everyone knows each other (or close to) in smaller communities. Are you willing to dick over your neighbor for airbnbing during the holidays when they're out of town? The human factor is hard to deal with, but it needs to get figured out as otherwise it will be investment houses and the super rich that own the entirety of vacation areas.

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this
since alta schlub doesn't have any friends he doesn't understand
granted I do like hearing some of his more fact based arguments not his pie in the sky sob story about how he has pulled himself up by his bootstraps mentality

I have alot to say where I live I get pretty worked up about shit and I think a majority of the local elected officials are absolute clowns who get elected only on feel good measures
at the end of the day I have to keep my mouth shut because it's a small town and I know who butters my bread

Leftist populism? LMAO [emoji1419]


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I never said I pulled myself up from my bootstraps. This isn't personal. It's theoretical musings. Honestly, unless you have lived in Seattle (actually inside the city limits) and follow the local politics, you don't understand what I am talking about when I say "leftist populism." Tacoma is majority Democrat, but it hasn't reached Seattle's level yet. The joke in Seattle is the voters have never seen a tax they didn't like. I've lived there, worked with the city, and know people that currently work for the city. The level of bureaucracy is insane. The politics there are insane. They chew politicians up and spit them out on the street. Everyone comes in with grand ideas and then leaves after a term. It shows what happens when you have too many liberals in a room together (similar problems as having too many conservatives in a room together). Aspen strikes me as a small version of this.

As of January, single-family existing home sales have plunged 36.1% year/year, which is worst annual drop since May 1980

Get used to that trend. Anyone with a mortgage under 4% is going to have every incentive not to sell for a very long time.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

Get used to that trend. Anyone with a mortgage under 4% is going to have every incentive not to sell for a very long time.

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My ex owes me some equity in our old home that she still lives in. In the divorce agreement I agreed to give her a few years after the divorce to get that refinanced into her name or move. She has until early next year to get that done.

When rates were really low I told her it might be a good idea to get that done sooner than later, and she told me that none of her friends thought it was worth it to refinance. I doubt they were taking into account that she was gonna have to do it anyways. It’s not like she’ll be getting anything out of reamortizing it to keep her payment low, because she’ll need to cash out my equity anyways.

When rates went to 4 and 5 percent I chortled a bit, but 6 and 7 makes me just a bit concerned… it might do more than sting.

With friends like that... ouch

Yeah, my friends thought refi'ing at 2.15% was a pretty good idea. Not even humble bragging. Her friends are dumb dumbs.

this is whats happening up narth to an estimated 20 % of the people who have mortgages,

the rates on their variable mortgage for the house couldn't really afford have caused their mortgage payments to almost double, welcome to Canada eh

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Originally Posted by Mustonen

My ex owes me some equity in our old home that she still lives in. In the divorce agreement I agreed to give her a few years after the divorce to get that refinanced into her name or move. She has until early next year to get that done.

When rates were really low I told her it might be a good idea to get that done sooner than later, and she told me that none of her friends thought it was worth it to refinance. I doubt they were taking into account that she was gonna have to do it anyways. It’s not like she’ll be getting anything out of reamortizing it to keep her payment low, because she’ll need to cash out my equity anyways.

When rates went to 4 and 5 percent I chortled a bit, but 6 and 7 makes me just a bit concerned… it might do more than sting.

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That's gotta sting.

It would have benefited me to no longer be on the mortgage. And of course I have my little lien on the house that would need paid out. The benefit to me was far, far less than the benefit to her, though the whole thing is perfectly on brand for her.

Oh well. Just watching and hoping they don’t have to move.

I have seen/ heard of that ^^ kind of scenario play out in divorce a few times, i think my 2nd wife had this happen with her 1st husband who had trouble paying her for her 1/2 of the home a few yrs later so we could buy a house

IMO you almost always want to wind things up and get out of the marriage/ matrimonial home asap .

You just never know how much trouble an ex is going to be or what the economy is gona do, so maybe you win or maybe yer screwed and mostly i hear someone got screwed