Real Estate Crash thread

You kept bringing Turkey up to refute my point champ, so yes, you did say it.

And yes, EV's don't pencil, and no amount of government wishmaking via building code is going to help that matter. People wonder why we don't have affordable housing, then add thousands of dollars in electrical work to all new builds so they can accommodate 60k+ vehicles. And that is just one example of superfluous code adding cost and complexity, which you said didn't exist.

Again, you don't give a shit because you'll just collect 8% (or more perhaps) of all these additional costs regardless of their actual use.

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Originally Posted by ötzi

This is about the PNW but imo is must reading. This motherfucker is late now: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...really-big-one

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After reading that yesterday I was awake around 2 hours last night thinking how a Tsunami is going to drowned us down the road. I better look into flood insurance.

^^^ don't even get started on the "green building" energy codes building houses so tight they don't breath and need mechanical air exchanges
it's the biggest crock of shit ever
homes need to breath I am not a fan of the zip wall system nothing like putting yourself in a chemical bubble

meanwhile to get the insulation codes we blow 10,000 lbs of petroleum products into a new 6000 sq ft home
how is that green building?

shit has gone too far
and yeah people wonder why housing costs so much

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Originally Posted by ::: :::

it’s pretty shitty at the moment…jfc, really?

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Ya, the Portland's homeless to Turkey comparison is bad given the current situation. But let's compare Portland to Mexico City. Lots of factors contribute to Portland's homeless crisis but one reason Mexico City has so few homeless is lax building regulations. There is an effect to a city like Portland's high regulatory structure.

The picture painted to me by the media, and contractors I speak to, is that cost of construction is highest in the Seattle, Portland, San Francisco's of the world. It is cheaper in the surrounding cities. Even cheaper on the other side of the mountains, and of course even cheaper by the time you get to Nebraska. Lots of factors play into this but high amounts of regulation and bureaucracy is a major factor. Some contractors I speak to refuse to do business within the city of Seattle due to the all the hoops they have to jump through. It sucks when people die in earthquakes but it also sucks when our cities are filled with homeles

An article a few days ago profiled a Tacoma plumber who makes 140-160k a year with nothing more than a high school degree. Working out pretty good for him when all these tech workers are getting laid off and he makes nearly as much with rock solid job security:

https://www.seattletimes.com/pacific...er-makes-140k/

So your sources are unlicensed contractors who can't meet Seattle bonding requirements, and they're outraged it cost more to get a job done in a big glass & steel city than on the frontiers of urban sprawl?

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Originally Posted by fastfred

my hot take is gov't can't get out of it's own way so I own a shit hole building your going to force me to make a million dollars in safety upgrades but I can't raise the rent to cover those upgrade costs?

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It's leftist populism. Watch out, because it is rampant in Seattle and it is bound to spread to other cities in the West, like Denver. It's already taken over Aspen.

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Originally Posted by Tips^Up

Cities/towns/municipalities are not politically in favor of commercial to residential conversions. They collect the lionshare of their income from sales tax (at least in Colorado). I've yet to hear a politician suggest they bring in less revenue.

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Most if not all of the conversions here were vacant buildings

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Y

An article a few days ago profiled a Tacoma plumber who makes 140-160k a year with nothing more than a high school degree. Working out pretty good for him when all these tech workers are getting laid off and he makes nearly as much with rock solid job security:

https://www.seattletimes.com/pacific...er-makes-140k/

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big difference between hitting enter all day on the computer key board making that money or spending half your day on your knees twisting and turning
you ever been working on a drain line in a condo building where you asked everyone not to use any water for an hour gave plenty of notice and people don't give two shits literally and hear the water starting to run so you get ready to catch the sludge in bucket and the other half is on you and the floor? Sounds awesome planning on doing that again later this week

I think most people couldn't handle raw sewage just cause your turds go in the toilet whole doesn't mean they run down the pipe in one piece

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Originally Posted by highangle

So your sources are unlicensed contractors who can't meet Seattle bonding requirements, and they're outraged it cost more to get a job done in a big glass & steel city than on the frontiers of urban sprawl? yawn

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No, I'm talking to foundation guys who run big companies. They will surely do everything permitted if that's what I want to do. But they also seem more than willing to go wild west if that's what I want. Then they share anecdotal stories of their friends in other sectors of the business.

My impression in these big, expensive cities is that the big developers can comply with all the rules because they have to, and have economies of scale. But regular home owners are overwhelmed. Same for mom and pop landlords. I see lots of really run down old homes around here despite the real estate price explosion in the last few years.

Lol
Fred & AR Do you all understand you are the reason regulations exist?
Getting dragged kicking and screaming into the future, pretending you understand the issues beyond measuring anything via dollars

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Originally Posted by altasnob

No, I'm talking to foundation guys who run big companies. They will surely do everything permitted if that's what I want to do. But they also seem more than willing to go wild west if that's what I want to. Then they share anecdotal stories of their friends in the business.

My impression in these big, expensive cities is that the big developers can comply with all the rules because they have to, and have economies of scale. But regular home owners are overwhelmed. Same for mom and pop landlords. I see lots of really run down old homes around here despite the real estate price explosion in the last few years.

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Because money
Not safety or health or sustainability

Get the fuck out of here, the very first thing I said is no one is arguing against structural codes, but surely you understand there are some superfluous code requirements that do not impact the overall safety of a building. I could go back and quote it for you, but you know how to read.

Then you went full architect and brought up Turkey, as if adding thousands of dollars of electrical work to accommodate tens of thousands of dollars in future additional appliances and utility work for EVs, will save a single life.

So no, I'm not the reason the 22 CA Energy code requirements exist. Architects and developers who make a substantial markup on the additional work, along with upper class virtue signaling people are. Fuck affordability, its time to get paid.

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Originally Posted by fastfred

^^^ don't even get started on the "green building" energy codes building houses so tight they don't breath and need mechanical air exchanges
it's the biggest crock of shit ever
homes need to breath

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Not sure if this is puffin Fred or Fred who understands his biz but posts idiocy cuz TRG…
For those reading along at home, this is the ranting of a luddite

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Originally Posted by ::: :::

Lol
Fred & AR Do you all understand you are the reason regulations exist?
Getting dragged kicking and screaming into the future, pretending you understand the issues beyond measuring anything via dollars

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alot of these regulations exist due to "health and safety"
I understand

the green building movement is a political agenda being forced on us by a small group of people who usually are a do as I say not as I do kinda people
if they cared about the environment they will live less than 200sq ft of interior space per person they will walk use public transportation or ride a bike never use a car or an airplane and only own a few sets of clothing to wear

being told I can only put a max 400cfm fan in a kitchen is bs meanwhile on my un permitted work I happily installed a 1800 cfm 3 speed fan in the kitchen it's like a jet engine but hey its for viking 8 or 10 burner oven

Conspiracy, huh?
Lol

am I the only one who has found this thread pretty much unreadable the last couple of weeks?

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Originally Posted by Danno

am I the only one who has found this thread pretty much unreadable the last couple of weeks?

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You are not alone.

Nuff said…sorry

#metoo


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Originally Posted by fastfred

^^^ don't even get started on the "green building" energy codes building houses so tight they don't breath and need mechanical air exchanges
it's the biggest crock of shit ever
homes need to breath I am not a fan of the zip wall system nothing like putting yourself in a chemical bubble

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After I moved into my 105 year old home with original windows painted shut in lead paint I solicited all sorts of window contractors to either restore or replace the windows. 99% of them didn't know a flying fuck about old windows. Nearly all of them said rip em out and replace with air tight plastic junk. I ended up finding an old hippie in Portland who was willing to drive up to Tacoma in his Volvo station wagon becuase he used to be stationed at JBLM and wanted to check out his old stomping grounds. He and I fully restored half the windows in my house and I added storm windows on half of them, with plans to add the rest eventually. Wind can come right through these old windows, but my house breathes. I rather have it this way than live in some sealed up plastic home in the suburbs. In 50 years we will all be talking about the health hazards of living in those off gassing bubbles.

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Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper

You are not alone.

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thirded (or whatever).

Move the green housing bullshit to the Rubble

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Lots of factors contribute to Portland's homeless crisis but one reason Mexico City has so few homeless is lax building regulations.

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Tell me you've never been to CDMX without telling me

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Originally Posted by muted reborn

What do you think will happen when The Big One hits then? Which is AFAIK is referring to 7.8 or higher. Will ones built to 7.0 code have widespread collapses if it's an 8.0? If not, what size will make new buildings crumble? And there's lotsa old buildings not built to 7.0 standards that will be destroyed, I think.

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We’ll, my biased opinion (I work for a contractor) - my guess is modern buildings will stand but with minor structural damage. There will be widespread power outages, gas leaks, water main breaks, etc… I’m sure some older buildings will fall but I bet we’re surprised with how many are still standing…

An SE will tell you different. Back when I was in college one of SE professors that taught seismic design would REFUSE to drive over the old SF-OAK bay bridge (before they built the new span). Dude would drive down to the San Mateo bridge to get to SF….



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Originally Posted by Danno

am I the only one who has found this thread pretty much unreadable the last couple of weeks?

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Yup, the change in course has me worried rather than laughing and that is why I am here, for the laughs

who else is getting high driving to denver jerking off in the high end lumber mill smoking mire dope and going for a bike ride some of try to win every day

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Originally Posted by nickwm21

We’ll, my biased opinion (I work for a contractor) - my guess is modern buildings will stand but with minor structural damage. There will be widespread power outages, gas leaks, water main breaks, etc… I’m sure some older buildings will fall but I bet we’re surprised with how many are still standing…

An SE will tell you different. Back when I was in college one of SE professors that taught seismic design would REFUSE to drive over the old SF-OAK bay bridge (before they built the new span). Dude would drive down to the San Mateo bridge to get to SF….



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Thanks for this, I guess we will eventually find out the hard way what will stand. I don't have an opinion on this because wtf do I know about codes - just curious what others think. Here in SLC have a pretty good chance of 7.0 earthquake on land that is mostly an old lake bed - aka it will shake like jello. Codes didn't change for earthquakes until the 70s.

AR, you remind of Grandpa Simpson, ha.

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Originally Posted by Ted Striker

Tell me you've never been to CDMX without telling me

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I've been to Mexico City several times. My parents live in Mexico, about three hours from Mexico City, and have been traveling around Mexico for the last 20+ years. I bet Mexico City has lower per capita homeless than Bellingham. Sure, people are living in shanties sprawling up the mountain sides. But at least they aren't passed out in front of businesses taking shits on the sidewalk like in Bellingham.

The number one factor that causes homelessness is high housing costs (see Atlantic article below). You can debate reasons for high housing costs, and ways to try to bring that down. Of all major American cities, Houston gets cited as the city that has done the best job with housing their homeless (by building a shit ton, which they are able to do because of their lower cost of construction and land prices). It's time for these West Coast cities to learn from what Houston is doing right.

"Urban areas with very high rates of poverty (Detroit, Miami-Dade County, Philadelphia) have among the lowest homelessness rates in the country, and some places with relatively low poverty rates (Santa Clara County, San Francisco, Boston) have relatively high rates of homelessness. The same pattern holds for unemployment rates: Homelessness is abundant only in areas with robust labor markets and low rates of unemployment—booming coastal cities.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...causes/672224/

Luckily for Detroit their homeless people just freeze to death or leave. Those coastal cities don't get that luxury, they have to actually deal with them.

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Originally Posted by nickwm21

I’m sure some older buildings will fall but I bet we’re surprised with how many are still standing…

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These old buildings you see in the PNW have survived several 6+ earthquakes. There was an interesting article in the NYTimes about Erzin, Turkey, which was right next to the epicenter of the quake but survived largely unscathed. The mayor was patting his back saying they survived becuase of his strict enforcement of building codes. But in reality, it was the natural geology of the region that explained the difference (Erzin was built on solid rock as opposed to clay and sand in old river beds like other cities in the region).

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/w...arthquake.html

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Luckily for Detroit their homeless people just freeze to death or leave. Those coastal cities don't get that luxury, they have to actually deal with them.

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It's largely a myth that West Coast cities have bad homeless situation becuase they have to absorb all the homeless fleeing places like Detroit. I expect Austin, Texas, which has seen it's housing costs sky rocket recently, to start having a bad homeless situation.

So the cure to the urban unhoused is baseboard outlets?! He may not be the hero we asked for...

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Originally Posted by altasnob

It's largely a myth that West Coast cities have bad homeless situation becuase they have to absorb all the homeless fleeing places like Detroit. I expect Austin, Texas, which has seen it's housing costs sky rocket recently, to start having a bad homeless situation.

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Austin already has a bad homeless population, and has a dry mild climate that is much closer to LA than Detroit. Go watch a bunch of Skid Row junkie interviews on Soft White Underbelly. Almost all of them came to LA from somewhere else.

Tacoma wishes it smelled like a turd on a sidewalk.

So all the homeless drug-addled schizophrenics downtown need to move somewhere cheaper? I’ll be sure to let them know.


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I hear Mexico City is nice.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

It's time for these West Coast cities to learn from what Houston is doing right.

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Ha!

Ha ha!

Hahahahahaha!

Well, at least it won’t take long at all to learn, given the pinchey amount of stuff Houston is doing right.

Shanty Towns: At Least They’re Not Shitting on the Sidewalks - A Mexico City Local’s Perspective on Policy Failure

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Originally Posted by Danno

I hear Mexico City is nice.

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I have heard that as well. But is it acceptable to smoke meth in public restrooms there? That could be a dealbreaker.


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Originally Posted by Danno

I hear Mexico City is nice.

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It’s the Real Estate Crash thread of city’s

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Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper

Ha!

Ha ha!

Hahahahahaha!

Well, at least it won’t take long at all to learn, given the pinchey amount of stuff Houston is doing right.

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I've heard that land in Houston prone to flooding is SUPER cheap. But you can buy some and do whatever the fuck you want! WWCD.