Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by woodstocksez

I think it's a bit different (worse) than that. You skew home ownership in favor of high income earners, since the subsidy is worth more to than them.

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You are correct. This will cause an even larger disparity as tax rates inevitably increase over the next few years.

There are even more reasons than that, though. First, if home prices go up, then (in a normal, non-bubble lending environment) downpayments go up too, and less people can come up with 20% or more. Also, higher prices = more leverage = more risk. Higher income earners can absorb a short sale or temporary loss better than lower income earners.

Housing subsidies, including the GSEs, are a bad deal all around for anyone except the rich and Wall Street. And now that the bailout is coming, we're on the hook for $TRILLIONS. Inflation will spiral even further out of control, further destroying the savings and earning power of the middle class in this country, and pushing many into low-class poverty.

This is a completely intentional result of conscious policy decisions by the Fed and Wall Street, whose goal is the final destruction of the American middle class and the creation of a feudal oligarchy run by investment banks -- much like any Latin American banana republic.

Note that Obama is financed by the banks, too, and will continue the same fiscal policies -- just with a smiley face and a couple meaningless bones to the poor.

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Originally Posted by Spats

You are correct. This will cause an even larger disparity as tax rates inevitably increase over the next few years.

There are even more reasons than that, though. First, if home prices go up, then (in a normal, non-bubble lending environment) downpayments go up too, and less people can come up with 20% or more. Also, higher prices = more leverage = more risk. Higher income earners can absorb a short sale or temporary loss better than lower income earners.

Housing subsidies, including the GSEs, are a bad deal all around for anyone except the rich and Wall Street. And now that the bailout is coming, we're on the hook for $TRILLIONS. Inflation will spiral even further out of control, further destroying the savings and earning power of the middle class in this country, and pushing many into low-class poverty.

This is a completely intentional result of conscious policy decisions by the Fed and Wall Street, whose goal is the final destruction of the American middle class and the creation of a feudal oligarchy run by investment banks -- much like any Latin American banana republic.

Note that Obama is financed by the banks, too, and will continue the same fiscal policies -- just with a smiley face and a couple meaningless bones to the poor.

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If only middle America could have realized the genius that is The Ron Paul.

That is some seriously over the top shit you just blasted out...way over the top.

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Originally Posted by Spats

...Note that Obama is financed by the banks, too, and will continue the same fiscal policies -- just with a smiley face and a couple meaningless bones to the poor.

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THANK GOD for the smiley face!!! Without it, the end of civilization would certainly be too difficult to endure... :)

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Originally Posted by cranked

If only middle America could have realized the genius that is The Ron Paul.

That is some seriously over the top shit you just blasted out...way over the top.

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Ron Paul? Try Thomas Jefferson. I'm not saying anything that Jefferson didn't say more eloquently and forcefully...in the 18th century.

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." -Thomas Jefferson

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a moneyed aristocracy that has set the Government at defiance. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs." -Thomas Jefferson

An aside: the Austrian School economists correctly predicted the Great Depression, and the modern Austrians (e.g. Peter Schiff) are also the only ones who have predicted the current credit crisis. Everyone else has apparently been caught either flat-footed or actively shilling for the banks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria...s_Cycle_Theory

It's funny how the traditional Left blasts Congress for "privatize corporate profit, socialize corporate risk"...except when the Democrats propose it, because we know they're the party of THE PEOPLE...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Obama is 100% owned by Wall Street, just like McCain and Giuliani, and he's pushing hard for this bailout of the investment bankers that finance his campaign.

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Originally Posted by cranked

If only middle America could have realized the genius that is The Ron Paul.

That is some seriously over the top shit you just blasted out...way over the top.

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You like Ron Paul???

I gave 500 clams to his campaign.

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Cranked, I thought even in S.F. prices had come down some, but, Jesus, maybe not: $900K for a 2bd,2ba?! I agree: that just doesn't seem sustainable to me for a "starter home." Who's buying that shit, and how, and why?

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The SF market is akin to the Bay Area Market as a whole. When people say prices in the Bay Area are falling, you have to break it down into localized regions, and then so on, because location plays a huge role in this area. SF is the same way. Old vs new construction, sunny vs foggy area, parking vs no parking, walking distance to markets/shops/muni, etc. SF is also a relatively small and built-out area when analyzing the supply vs demand equation. That 2br/2ba in a nice, sunny area, with parking may have way more buyers than you realize because there's not much inventory online, and its a pretty wealthy city overall, for better or for worse. Factor in the higher gas prices, and people will start to move closer to work in say, the Financial District, so they can walk or easily access Muni to get to work.

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Originally Posted by Spats

Ron Paul? Try Thomas Jefferson. I'm not saying anything that Jefferson didn't say more eloquently and forcefully...in the 18th century.

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." -Thomas Jefferson

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a moneyed aristocracy that has set the Government at defiance. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs." -Thomas Jefferson

An aside: the Austrian School economists correctly predicted the Great Depression, and the modern Austrians (e.g. Peter Schiff) are also the only ones who have predicted the current credit crisis. Everyone else has apparently been caught either flat-footed or actively shilling for the banks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria...s_Cycle_Theory

It's funny how the traditional Left blasts Congress for "privatize corporate profit, socialize corporate risk"...except when the Democrats propose it, because we know they're the party of THE PEOPLE...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Obama is 100% owned by Wall Street, just like McCain and Giuliani, and he's pushing hard for this bailout of the investment bankers that finance his campaign.

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Yeah...you've mentioned this before...and it was equally hilarious then.

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Originally Posted by Spats

Ron Paul? Try Thomas Jefferson. I'm not saying anything that Jefferson didn't say more eloquently and forcefully...in the 18th century.

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." -Thomas Jefferson

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a moneyed aristocracy that has set the Government at defiance. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs." -Thomas Jefferson

An aside: the Austrian School economists correctly predicted the Great Depression, and the modern Austrians (e.g. Peter Schiff) are also the only ones who have predicted the current credit crisis. Everyone else has apparently been caught either flat-footed or actively shilling for the banks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria...s_Cycle_Theory

It's funny how the traditional Left blasts Congress for "privatize corporate profit, socialize corporate risk"...except when the Democrats propose it, because we know they're the party of THE PEOPLE...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Obama is 100% owned by Wall Street, just like McCain and Giuliani, and he's pushing hard for this bailout of the investment bankers that finance his campaign.

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The reason Thomas Jefferson wrote things like that is because he was a personal financial nightmare. he constantly had creditors after him. Every day I kiss a $10 bill to give thanks for Hamilton's ability to win out over Jefferson's agrarian romanticism.

The link below is to a PDF file that a friend sent to me. It takes a very bearish view of the real estate situation and lays it all out in an easy to follow 60 page presentation. It compares renting vs owning and also our situation to the real estate crash in Japan.

I think it is an extreme view. The real estate agent would give you the other end of the spectrum. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

It is definitely worth a look:
http://www.mattitude.com/downloads/J...esentation.pdf

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Originally Posted by cranked

Yeah...you've mentioned this before...and it was equally hilarious then.

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That's a bold statement. Care to back it up?

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Originally Posted by mattitude

The link below is to a PDF file that a friend sent to me. It takes a very bearish view of the real estate situation and lays it all out in an easy to follow 60 page presentation. It compares renting vs owning and also our situation to the real estate crash in Japan.

I think it is an extreme view. The real estate agent would give you the other end of the spectrum. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

It is definitely worth a look:
http://www.mattitude.com/downloads/J...esentation.pdf

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The chart source on page 4 is a worry:

"Source: I forget where I got this, but it’s totally reputable. Who would lie about this?"

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Originally Posted by mr_gyptian

Every day I kiss a $10 bill to give thanks for Hamilton's ability to win out over Jefferson's agrarian romanticism.

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This is not a surprise. You've consistently supported the neo-conservative agendas of endless war and wholesale destruction of the freedoms that made America great -- in the name of "national security" -- ever since you started posting on powmag.

Also your entire career depends on easy credit, so you're not exactly a disinterested party.

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Originally Posted by Hohes

The chart source on page 4 is a worry:

"Source: I forget where I got this, but it’s totally reputable. Who would lie about this?"

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This isn't the same chart, but it shows the same trend: residential real estate at an all-time high relative to GDP.
http://www.stls.frb.org/news/speeche...9_07.html#fig1

The rest of the speech is very good, too. It's too bad that Poole isn't with the Fed anymore, as he was essentially their single voice of sanity.

The poor sourcing didn't so much make me doubt the chart rather raise an eyebrow at his referencing standards. I actually liked his style a bit. His perspective is a very negative, but I agree that there is serious trouble coming, especially when you heap on other economic problems of the moment and the future. Now is a good time to be thankful you saved for a rainy day (and it isn't raining yet).

The references to Japan are interesting. Japan certainly is over populated and has very little flat land. Yet 14 years after the real-estate bubble burst you are now able to buy a solid 10 - 20 year old simple home and land in the middle of ski resort country and 3 hours from Tokyo's 20+ million people for an average of $80,000 (houses range from 600-1200 ft squared on land of 3000 ft 2. Better deals are available). If that kind of depreciation hits the US, I hate to think what quality of life will be in 10 years time.

And yes, from what I knew of Poole, more of him was/is needed.

Looks like Wachovia is waving the white flag, as of this morning they are getting out of the wholesale mortgage business.


http://ml-implode.com/ailing/lender_...008-07-21.html


We are hearing about the impending shutdown of wholesale mortgage operations at Wachovia. This morning, we received the following:

"Wachovia wholesale is shutting down today. Press release at 1PM."

"All us reps were told this morning by top managment that wholesale will be completely shutdown by August 31st and a conference call will be this afternoon. All reps were called Sunday afternoon on the east coast...both Portfolio and marketable products."

The info is coming in from various sources including tipsters, forum members and outside sources - many of whom are (or were) Wachovia employees. We have no detailed information at this point on the number of people who will be affected.

An email sent to brokers by one AE says:

"Good Morning just wanted to let you know that we learned last night that today Wachovia will announce its closing its Wholesale division.

There will be a conference call at 1 pm and I will send out a follow up to that call."

From their web site: "Today's Wachovia was created when First Union Corporation acquired the former Wachovia Corporation and changed its name to Wachovia." That merger occurred in September of 2001; some may also recall First Union's acquisition (and subsequent shutdown) of then-subprime-giant "The Money Store" just a year prior. Many analysts and pundits have pointed to Wachovia's acquisition of Golden West Corporation, parent holding company of World Savings Bank in Oakland, CA in October of 2006 as a cause for recent woes over their $120 billion portfolio of Pay Option ARMs, referred to as "Pick-a-Pay" or "PAP" loans.

sweet, I guess they'll just send me the deed then....

So Wachovia loses $8.9 billion and Fannie and Freddie are on the verge of collapse. Here's a brief snipet from an sobering article I read on MSN.

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What's at stake now is the credit of the United States itself.

Because of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the overseas investors who hold $9 trillion in U.S. government debt and trillions more in U.S. dollars are weeks away from losing faith in the government's creditworthiness.

In the days since the crisis at Fannie and Freddie turned red-hot, the council that advises Saudi Arabia's king has recommended revaluing the Saudi currency, the riyal, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, by up to 30%. That could be a first step toward switching the riyal from a price pegged to the dollar to one pegged to a basket of world currencies.

A similar advisory body in Abu Dhabi has suggested abandoning that country's dollar peg for its currency. A third oil-rich Middle Eastern country, Kuwait, ended its currency link to the dollar last year.

More ominously, because the threat is more immediate, some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, including that of China, are edging away from the U.S. dollar at an increasing speed. China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which holds the majority of China's $1.6 trillion in foreign currency reserves (mostly in dollars) has been holding talks with European private-equity companies about investing in their latest round of funds. That would shift dollars into euros.

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Originally Posted by mud

Looks like Wachovia is waving the white flag, as of this morning they are getting out of the wholesale mortgage business.
http://ml-implode.com/ailing/lender_...008-07-21.html
We are hearing about the impending shutdown of wholesale mortgage operations at Wachovia. This morning, we received the following:

"Wachovia wholesale is shutting down today. Press release at 1PM."

"All us reps were told this morning by top managment that wholesale will be completely shutdown by August 31st and a conference call will be this afternoon. All reps were called Sunday afternoon on the east coast...both Portfolio and marketable products."

Many analysts and pundits have pointed to Wachovia's acquisition of Golden West Corporation, parent holding company of World Savings Bank in Oakland, CA in October of 2006 as a cause for recent woes over their $120 billion portfolio of Pay Option ARMs, referred to as "Pick-a-Pay" or "PAP" loans.

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Just for clarification, the division being closed is called Wachovia Wholesale in the General Bank division. In reality it is all the douche nozzles from World Savings, the Pick a Pay boys. I bet Wachovia wishes they had never paid Billions for that outfit. But live and learn. Wachovia is still in wholesale lending. The company is called Vertice and it is in the Wachovia CIB division.
This announcement while financially painful for the parent company was a good move in the long haul IMO.
Now we just need Bank of America to close Countrywide and justice will be served to two of the biggest Pick a Pay producers. Talk about 1 product that really fucked millions of clueless consumers.

Wachovia/Vertice was fairly conservative when it came to Underwriting compared to Countrywide. Although I wasn't shocked when this happened since they always seemed to be understaffed in the servicing department which is always a bad sign.


Here's the email;

Date: July 21, 2008
To: Wachovia Mortgage, FSB Brokers and AEs
From: ****
Subject: Wachovia Mortgage, FSB to Discontinue Lending through Third Party Brokers

As you know, the mortgage industry is experiencing a very challenging market environment. Declining housing values, increased foreclosures, disappearing mortgage lenders, and a struggling secondary market are all symptoms of this market turmoil.
Wachovia Mortgage has evaluated its business model and decided to reposition its mortgage business. Going forward, we will primarily focus on customers who have relationships with the bank, and who are located in geographies where Wachovia branches are located.
As a result of our new strategic focus, Wachovia Mortgage has decided to discontinue lending through third-party, or wholesale mortgage brokers. This decision will be effective July 25, 2008, at 5:00 pm local time which will be the last date on which Wachovia Mortgage will accept new loan registrations from brokers. Additionally, no new locks will be accepted after 8:00 pm EDT, July 25, 2008. Existing rate locks will be honored. If the loan does not close and fund by the lock expiration date, no extensions will be granted. All loans must be received by your Wachovia Servicenter no later than 5:00 pm local time August 25, 2008 and must close no later than end of business September 30, 2008.
This was a very difficult decision to make. Out of respect for the valued relationships we have had with numerous mortgage brokers over many years, we wanted to make you aware of this change as soon as possible.
If you have any questions about this change, please feel free to contact your local Wachovia loan representative. Thank you for your business.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Now we just need Bank of America to close Countrywide

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Doesn't seem to be happening. No way. They see a lot of value in the mortgage operations. I guess. Most watch it either wincing or jaws down to the floor. Just goes to show that some CEOs are egotistical numbskulls who refuse to admit a mistake, no matter how large.

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Originally Posted by Spats

This isn't the same chart, but it shows the same trend: residential real estate at an all-time high relative to GDP.
http://www.stls.frb.org/news/speeche...9_07.html#fig1

The rest of the speech is very good, too. It's too bad that Poole isn't with the Fed anymore, as he was essentially their single voice of sanity.

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i met bill poole three weeks ago when he came through our office. i found his arguments to be very underwhelming but here is the main one, what do you think:

Poole: monetary policy is very stimulative right now and policy rates will need to be raised in the near future to avoid inflation. but the current fed will not do this in the next meeting or two because they have not signalled it strongly enough.

Me: (after the fact, I was more polite in person I hope): does anyone believe this to be true? i look at it like forest gump, monetary policy is as monetary policy does. i.e. you need to look at the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy to determine if it is stimulating the economy. So credit is tight so the borrowing channel is uncertain. equities and housing are weak so the wealth channel is not contributing. corporate investment is not super strong so companies are not providing help through any multiplier effects. the only channel that is stoking any growth is the weak dollar via the export channel. but overall please tell me how monetary policy is super stimulative when mortgage rates are 7%.



I was excited to meet him and left thinking that he is an inflation hawk without a cause. he said some stuff about house prices i should relate but i'm too drunk. if anyone cares i will try to enumerate his argument tomorrow. i should also say that the day after he spoke with us he made a public speech that was unabashedly more hawkish, like hikes were extremely imminent. also after he made his comments about fannie and freddie he backpedaled. I don't think he is the guy you want to be following, but rather he's too eager to make headlines in his post fomc afterglow.

The rats are leaving the ship.


Wachovia CFO Wurtz to leave company

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wachovia Corp. said late Thursday Chief Financial Officer Thomas Wurtz will leave the company. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia said Wurtz will leave "after a successor is named to the role. The company will begin an immediate search for a replacement."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...B9%7D#comments

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Originally Posted by kokomas

i met bill poole three weeks ago when he came through our office. i found his arguments to be very underwhelming but here is the main one, what do you think:

Poole: monetary policy is very stimulative right now and policy rates will need to be raised in the near future to avoid inflation. but the current fed will not do this in the next meeting or two because they have not signalled it strongly enough.

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Fed wants to talk tough against inflation but not DO anything about it.

THE ROCK - The FED. - THE HARD PLACE

Not too sure just how stimulative monetary policy is, unless he's talking about the multi billion dollar de jeur bailouts that seem to be going on every week.

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Doesn't seem to be happening. No way. They see a lot of value in the mortgage operations. I guess. Most watch it either wincing or jaws down to the floor. Just goes to show that some CEOs are egotistical numbskulls who refuse to admit a mistake, no matter how large.

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The CEO of B of A hates wholesale lending. Remember, he closed B of A wholesale about 7-8 months ago and that was a well run outfit.
Frankly, with his attitude, I am shocked CW wholesale is still around. I want that company to FAIL:the_finge

Looks like any predictions we've hit bottom already might have been premature... not that it's a surprise;

Federal Reserve finds deepening credit crisis

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More banks are tightening lending standards on home mortgages and other consumer and business loans as a deepening credit crisis exerts a heavier toll on the economy.

The Federal Reserve said Monday the percentage of banks reporting tighter lending standards rose across various loan types in its July survey. In April, the central bank had found that the percentage of banks reporting tighter lending standards was already near historic highs.

The new survey, conducted in early July, found that about 75 percent of the banks surveyed indicated they had tightened their lending standards for prime mortgages. That was up from about 60 percent in the previous survey.

The Fed's July survey covered 50 banks which hold about 80 percent of the residential mortgages on the books of all commercial banks.

Out of this group of 50 banks, 32 said they were still originating so-called nontraditional home mortgages. Among these 32 banks, about 85 percent said they had tightened their lending standards, up from 75 percent who said they were tightening lending standards for nontraditional mortgages in the April survey.

The Fed defines nontraditional mortgages as interest-only loans and "Alt-A" mortgages that required limited verification of income.

The survey found that many banks had reported tightening their lending standards and terms on all major categories of consumer and business loans over the past three months.

About 65 percent of domestic banks - more than double the roughly 30 percent in the April survey - reported that they had tightened lending standards on credit card loans.

The current credit crisis hit with force a year ago with rising defaults in the market for subprime mortgage loans. The credit problems have since spread from subprime loans, mortgages provided to borrowers with weak credit histories, to other types of mortgages and other kinds of loans.

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Originally Posted by timvwcom

Looks like any predictions we've hit bottom already might have been premature... not that it's a surprise;

Federal Reserve finds deepening credit crisis

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There are still plenty of good programs out there. This lending debacle is why I got my loan officer's license in addition to my real estate license. I was having a hell of time with a particular lender I'd been using for years. Now finding someone to do business with is easy. My email inbox is stuffed with rate sheets daily and many of them are still willing to lend to investors and the stated income crowd. My little bro will be closing on a place in a couple of weeks (self employed, quasi-stated income) with a rate of 6.5%. I'm doing cash out refi's on places I paid cash for 6 month's ago for around 6.375 to 6.5 (as an investor).

I have worked with a couple of companies whose underwriters were just straight stupid or power-tripping. It's pretty crazy all the stuff some companies have wanted. Made almost no sense. One experience like that and no more going to them.

JUmbwo PRimaty?

so I decided to take my house off the market and rent the damn thing for a year or two in hopes that this turns around. I dropped the price to 237k and still nothing. We can still buy a house here and own that one as long as that one stays rented and we don't go over a certain amount. Maybe in a couple of years this will all be over.

Buy our oil and we'll buy your REO's:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08102008...ity_123879.htm

Granted, this is being reported by a tabloid.

All figures based on Zillow, and we all know how accurate that is....but, it does give a good picture of what's going on in the SF Bay Area during the last year, and how microclimates equal to more than just unique weather.

http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/20..._d01_5star.jpg

You can also check out all the Bay Area sales/foreclosures (updated every Monday) to get real-time info on what's going on in the residential housing market...enjoy nerds!

http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/homesales/

http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/foreclosures/

Local news: Teton Springs has laid off all non-essential personnel, and has been sued by another 40 or so homeowners.
The claims vary, but pretty much they all claim that they were 'promised' significant returns immediately, and many of them claim that the in house lenders manipulated many of their stated incomes on their applications.
It looks like they are in pretty deep financial trouble.
Huntsman Springs has been effectively shuttered for now.
I would love to hear more about River Rim and Teton Reserve ans Saddleback.
All of these failing ventures revolve around upscale golf courses...so what do the large parcel (Mormon) landowners want to do over on the west-side of the valley?

Two MORE up-scale, million dollar home gated communities based on two NEW golf courses!
Yay!
(If any of you want a $3mil. home for $750K, call me in around a year or two! I PROMISE!)

I have a buddy that was working on River Rim. They essentially stopped in their tracks. No more infrastructure going in. I do think there are some home sites that are ready to go and maybe even have some homes going up, but the master plan has been halted.

Even on this side, prices are starting to drop. Howeowners aren't happy thinking about getting less than $800/SF, but the second home market pretty much is in the process of collapsing here.

I'm living in a 3 bedroom condo that has been on the market for $725K and only 2 people have looked at it in the last 3 months. :FIREdevil

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Originally Posted by rideit

(If any of you want a $3mil. home for $750K, call me in around a year or two! I PROMISE!)

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Uh, it, you know, never was worth 3 mil and never may be. 750 sounds a little high, considering.

Well, there were people who bought in at $3M, so, at that particular sales table, at that time, it was worth $3M.

(They will still sell @~$1M, eventually...just compare to what is available in JH, where prices really aren't budging too, too much)

So I am looking at buying some resort property prefer 20 miles or less to lifts. Summit,Vail,Crested,Steamboat. I figure with 50% to100% percent decrease in price I should be able to get a small house on its own land for under 200 K. Stick framed, no assoc fees ,no trailers nearby. minimum .15 acre. Preferably garage too. By next year no problemo. I'll be stylin in 2000 sq feet w/ garage in Downtown Breckenridge. Under 200k, just watch, you cant polish a turd and we are all getting flushed.

How much is that kind of house in YT horsey country NY ville? I bet you could pick one up for under a 100k easy huh. Hows the skiing there? Crowds?

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Originally Posted by Ski pod sticker hero

So I am looking at buying some resort property prefer 20 miles or less to lifts. Summit,Vail,Crested,Steamboat. I figure with 50% to100% percent decrease in price I should be able to get a small house on its own land for under 200 K. Stick framed, no assoc fees ,no trailers nearby. minimum .15 acre. Preferably garage too. By next year no problemo. I'll be stylin in 2000 sq feet w/ garage in Downtown Breckenridge. Under 200k, just watch, you cant polish a turd and we are all getting flushed.

How much is that kind of house in YT horsey country NY ville? I bet you could pick one up for under a 100k easy huh. Hows the skiing there? Crowds?

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I'll take a few dozen of the "100% decrease in price" properties please... :rolleyes2

I'm holding out for the 125% decrease.

I live in Vail, I would love to know about any of these decreased value homes in this valley. Shit is expensive and isn't coming down. Most say homes are going for up to 10% below list but still VERY expensive. I have also seen home prices in Minturn go up (don't get me started on that deal). Stuff is on the market for longer but it isn't getting cheaper here.

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I'm holding out for the 125% decrease.

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It is early and my brain is foggy from 4 days of drinking in Cabo Mx, but how do you guys figure 100% decline in value?
I have seen stuff that sold for $650k now on the market for $450k, so that is a 30% drop. I think it will get to the high $300s before this is over next year, but that is mabe a 40% decline?

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I'm holding out for the 125% decrease.

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No, Benny, those are the houses sitting on toxic waste. Got yer back.