Printable View
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
I was at CDO conference last week and heard the same kind of stuff. The '07vintage is as bad if not worse than the '06 stuff. One of the interesting things at the conference was to see where the blame was being placed and how to fix the problem going forward. For whatever its worth the consensus was blame generally belonged to the mortgage brokers and lenders....
The reason this charade was able to continue as long as it did was that all of the investment funds kept eating this up with beans and rice on the side.
Everyone keeps talking about the credit freeze, but the reality is that people finally got smart and refused to buy this shit. So to blame the lenders and brokers for the problem is like blaming the drug dealer for your crack habit.
Wall Street's core ability is putting lipstick on a pig and telling you its the head of the USC cheerleading squad.
I guess I should have mentioned that this conference was widely attended and basically put on for those investment firms buying this shit, so yea those opinions had a bit of bias to them. Watching them rip into the panel of ratings agencies was a sight to see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Gotz
Amen. That 06 vintage is complete shit. The 07 is complete shit. This is not surprising and from what I'm hearing from friends who wholesale this stuff for ML/DB/etc. there's absolutely nothing going on for originations right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Gotz
And the ratings agencies... I mean, did you really not think that geographically specific modeling might be useful? Maybe a house in Detroit doesn't have quite the price support of that house in Santa Monica??
So, you're buying a house in Denver sometime next year then?Quote:
Originally Posted by mitch buchannon
I'm thinking of buying a second and running it as a rental if the market drops far enough to get in on some formerly overvalued oversold property in a "trendy" hood like Highlands or DU...
I think where you guys bought is likely to be a home run (close to gates redevelopment) and I think there's softness even in the southern parts of Bonnie Brae (by colorado and I-25) as well as DU/Wellshire/U Hills...Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Knight
I've been making some progress on getting a better gig, but that's the wildcard. If we can work it out money-wise, we're definitely looking in all those areas.
well, ya, but you guys are talking from the inside, right? How about the consumer out there, who takes out a loan and gets into trouble within a few months? I mean, double duh. What were they thinking? It was going to go up, when prices levelled about a year ago?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Gotz
A paraphrase for republicans and modern bankers: "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the American public."
The credit shitshow in the US derives from the fact that creditors are chasing borrowers for business. And that is stupid^2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Yeah, we'll see. Right now, I think we'd be underwater if we had to sell. But we don't. I think our area is still 10 years out honestly. Which is just fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by mitch buchannon
However, I think you're VERY right on about Gates. It's going to make a mark. And it's right on the light rail, and people are underestimating the impact that's going to have 5 years from now. Since we're across I-25 and across Alameda, the impact won't be quite as dramatic on us, but right in that neighborhood though, between Gates and Old South Pearl, and a little ways south...that could be a 5 year out big winner.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...20424620071016
Quote:
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Sales of houses and condominiums in the most populous Southern California counties fell 29.9 percent from the previous month and 48.5 percent from a year earlier, DataQuick Information Systems said on Tuesday.
The report covers the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura and showed a total of 12,455 new and existing homes and condos sold in September, the lowest since the company began recording the data in 1988
I've been a fly on the wall a few times at various Realtor meetings or title companies and have heard numerous agents woes. Stats in Utah have been weird. Most areas claim to still be up in terms of price, but volume has fallen WAY off. Hunstville (near Powder and Snowbasin) has lost 25% of it's value in one year. OUCH!!!
Fortunately the current woes have been perfect for me. I'm grabbing rentals for dirt cheap (just scored two houses on one lot for $54,500). The only problem is there are tons of people buying the same category right now. The property I got for $54,500 had 19 bids in 24 hours. The area I'm buying went up in volume last year and was up over 26% in value. Anything that stands out as a good deal becomes a total shoot out. I almost got a 5,000 sq. ft historic mansion on a huge lot with unbelievable wood work (coolest I've ever seen) for 165K. I got beat by investors who offered less, but offered cash and a 10 day close. Hopefully they walk on inspections, if so, it's mine.
The number of homes on the market seems really high right now as well. It feels like investors are just trading homes back and forth and no "real" buyers are out there.
Did your projects sell yet, meatdrink?
I spoke to an agent friend of mine today that said that Salt Lake proper is a total crapshoot and looks comletely different than it did even three months ago. I work with a lot of the production and custom builders as well as their subs on a daily basis, and everyone is scared. Almost every one of them has laid off personnel in the last six months. New inventory is double what it was last year at this time. Relative to other markets, though, it's still not that bad but no one is building anything not pre-sold.Quote:
Originally Posted by meatdrink9
My home has probably lost some value, which I expected to happen. She also mentioned that the rental market is out of control. Houses like mine (3 bed, 2 bath, 1600 sf) are renting for $1500+ with 2 month leases! It has definitely given me something to think about.
Is that high? Seriously. I'm looking in the NY area. That would be sweet in Westchester.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrGonzo
My god, there are still dozens upon dozens of spec builds going on here in Teton Valley, (with potentially hundreds-thousands of lots going on line soon) where the amount of available inventory is HUGE. Gonna be interesting, to say the least!
Relatively speaking, yes. Utah was very undervalued for a long time, and while I haven't paid attention to the rental market for the last several years (most people probably haven't because they were too busy buying), that is significantly higher than the last time I rented here. If I got $1700-1800 on a two-year lease, I would probably rent it tomorrow and look around for a beat up condo near BCC/LCC to work on and live in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
I lived in Chicago for a while so I know what you mean, although that is still not as high as where you're at. I went from there to Boise where I leased a 2 bed duplex for $550. I thought it was free.
What the hell is going in in your avatar? Is he eating a puppy?
One sold this spring for a very nice profit (100+K) the other we kept and rented it (duplex). I sold another one of my houses in the Bountiful area for another 100+K profit right in the middle of the lending fallout and the buyer got his loan through Countrywide.Quote:
Originally Posted by RootSkier
Dr Gonzo, yeah the builder scene out here is weird. Last summer Richmond American sold out a hug subdivision of 300-500K homes in no time (probably 40 homes) this summer they built another big subdivision across the street. If they've sold two homes all summer I'd be amazed.
Any realtors/mortgage brokers/otherwise real estate folks in PDX checking in? I'm thinking about a place here.
Dude save yourself some pain and wait for the market to bottom, The PNW market is just starting to level off in the Seattle region anyway. We are in the beginning of what will probabely become a historic downturn in housing prices and not just in the US.
FYI. It make take YEARS to bottom.
RENT!
Its impossible to time the bottom. By trying you might get lucky or you might miss a great opportunnity, things can turn either direction on a dime. Find something you like and make an offer you're happy with and move on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tourette Dude
> things can turn either direction on a dime.
I don't know that I buy into this for the next 3-6 months for RE. It's not like it's at a delicate tipping point right now and any small item of news can set off a jump up in prices. All news and analyses of the market are pointing to more downward action.
generalized statements like this are not worth much; RE markets are localized. For the most part I agree with CUBUCK.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nobody Famous
So can I borrow some of your money to invest in a few properties right now?
afaik rents in the portland area have gone up, and the rental market is pretty strong, so there are people with income who need a place to live. PDX isn't quite as high as Seattle I don't think. But anyways, interesting times :)
The CEO of Houvanian feels that the market is screwed at least until the end of '08. And many agree with him. Many feel longer, but don't want to be that pessimistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by CUBUCK
My paste post on the last page I think in indicitive of the warped psycology of this market that still has to be cured somehow, and only time can do that. If people were still borrowing at stupid terms up to this summer, when the market was already pretty much fucked in many places, well, it's going to take at least a year for reality to sink in for a lot of people. And then, who knows how long after that for the upside. I remember the early 90's in the NYC area, when many people I knew were underwater for 4 or 5 years, and eventually were happy to sell at a loss just to get rid of the headache.
Compared to what?Quote:
Originally Posted by CUBUCK
The apartment I rented in PDX (recent building, well maintained, close to downtown) looks to still rent for what I signed for 5 years. I wouldn't call that a "strong" rental market. relative to the local economy PDX was overpriced when I left unless things have deflated it likely still is buoyed more by out of state relocations than a wellpaying local economy.
one mans foreclosure is another mans bargain
Would you say your apartment building in Portland is representative of the entire country?Quote:
Originally Posted by cj001f
As has been hinted at numerous other times in this thread real estate markets are localized. There is no guarantee you are going to get a better deal by waiting as depending on your location the opportunity may have passed. Generally real estate is not a short term investment therefore it is a pointless exercise to try to time the peaks and the troughs. Its more important for you to believe you are getting a good value out of your purchase than to buy because you think the market has hit a bottom.
corndog was asking about the Portland real estate market.Quote:
Originally Posted by CUBUCK
peaks and troughs are relevant to the question of "should I buy or rent"?
ok, I'm sorry I misunderstood. The text you were quoting of mine was far more general than specific to Portland.Quote:
Originally Posted by cj001f
The peaks and troughs argument was more for Benny calling the bottom of the market in late '08.
Hard to predict, considering what else can happen before then, but I'll say late'09-10. Maybe.
Heh - I'm in agreeance with you on the futility of trying to predict or time the top of the peak or bottom of the trough. If I could do that well I wouldn't be working the job I am :smile:Quote:
Originally Posted by CUBUCK
To add to that, interest rates further complicate buying in troughs for most people buying real estate. Inflation is rising and oil is skyrocketing; interest rates are going to have to rise if we don't want to be on par with the peso. As interest rates rise, RE is going to go even farther down the tubes. You might think prices are bad right now, but if interest rates climb to 10% (which is historically actually fairly low), you might not be able to afford payments on the same house even if it's 20% cheaper down the road. Those with enough cash to avoid as much financing as possible will come out ahead. Better start saving your money.Quote:
Originally Posted by cj001f
My house is still for sale in Laurel, Mt. Been on the market since April. Started at 300k and now ata 269,900. 1 acre, 5 bedrooms 3.5 baths, hot tub, pool table, big screen all come with the place, 3100 sq. feet. Any mags give me a referral and it ends up selling to that person I will throw some cabbage to the appropriate mag.
Have you tried zillow.comQuote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Interesting website. Kind of cool to check out what your buddy spent on his house, or your boss.
Capitalism is a funny thing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/22/us...agewanted=1&hp
“The market’s really low right now, so you can get a good price,” said Lori Crook, a food server at Keys Cafe who said she was looking for a place she could fix up and sell. “Even if you can’t sell it right away, if you just sit on it and sit on it, it will go up.”
"But instead of alarming buyers about the risks, the auction of so many foreclosures at once was an invitation to speculators, small and large. Some, including Bryan Kihle and Jim Casha, who bought a four-bedroom house for $145,000, bid without seeing the properties. “I just looked at the picture and thought if we got it cheap enough, we could rent it for a year, then sell it when the market goes back up,” said Mr. Kihle, a building contractor. "
"Since he is still a part-time student, Mr. Harris chose an interest-only mortgage, which will convert to a 25-year adjustable rate mortgage after five years, the type of exotic mortgage many critics and lawmakers blame for the foreclosure crisis. But he said he was not worried: in five years, when his mortgage adjusts, it will still be on a principal of only $80,000."
WOW!Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
The warped mentality is still there.
We NEED a serious ass-kicking correction if for no other reason than to teach these idiots a lesson. :nonono2: :nonono2:
Then we can resume a normal, sensilble real estate market, driven by either homeowner-occupant demand or investor cash flow return.
Oh yeah, Salt Lake is definitely immune to any slowdown:
http://housing-watch.com/graph.aspx?...1309&v=50&sz=m
Look out, Miami!
http://housing-watch.com/graph.aspx?...=661&v=50&sz=m
its actually a great website since you can see MEDIAN sales info (not average which is misleading) as well as the 25th and 75th percentile values to check the strength of the high or low price side of the market.
www.housing-watch.com
too funny