Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by altasnob

He lives in a metro of 3.2 million. Embrace the density. He will soon be living in the Paris of the Pacific, walking to cafes, restaurants, grocery stores. Biking to the doctor's office. With occasional jaunts up to the mountains for holiday

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Wait...have you been talking to my wife? Those are pretty much her words exactly.

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

Sorry Alta, looks like things don't always work out smarty-pants city folks and outsiders trying impose their wisdom on a different community

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I already predicted that is how it would play out two days ago:

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Originally Posted by altasnob

This is how I see this playing out in CO. The powerful resort town NIMBY lobbyist will convince the legislature to exempt them from the law. The law will pass, but only apply to the Front Range. Front Range will get less expensive relative to living in the mountains, making mountain towns even less affordable. The NIMBY's in the mountain will get what they want.

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And who do you think these people moving to Aspen are? They are smarty-pants city people with their big city, work from home job. They will bring in their big city ideas, like density, walkibility, transit. I love how people move from places like Chicago move to Aspen, live a few years, and all of sudden they are the "community" and know best how that community should be developed.

Have you been practicing sucking your own dick again? Visit the "over 40" thread. We've got some tips for ya.

Because maybe the city people don't always win the culture wars, some people move to the mountains because they like how it is. Or even...gasp...the wealthy new comers are the biggest anti-density ones.

It must be hard being you. Having such clarity regarding everything and living in a constant state of frustration when others don't see it how you do.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

I already predicted that is how it would play out two days ago:



And who do you think these people moving to Aspen are? They are smarty-pants city people with their big city, work from home job. They will bring in their big city ideas, like density, walkibility, transit. I love how people move from places like Chicago move to Aspen, live a few years, and all of sudden they are the "community" and know best how that community should be developed.

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Correct, I know: but just because you predict something doesn't mean you believe or support it happening ;)

And yes, plenty of quite wealthy WFH transplants here recently, but they aren't the community and don't have much to say. I don't see any of them involved in local politics or really in the conversation - and many of them are parents at my school. They're just here for the social+social media cache and to say they lived here, before moving back to where they came from.

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They're just here for the social+social media cache and to say they lived here, before moving back to where they came from.

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Seriously? As in they are not trying to make it work long term? Aspen is different and I won't pretend to know or understand. Around here the newer transplants tend to be more mundane places like Seattle but the common feedback is, "we don't ever want to go back".

I think for the wealth their has been a shift in what "where you live" represent. They want perceived safety, a slower place of life and fun shit to do. They've got the money to travel for culture, restaurants, and so on.

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Originally Posted by alpinevibes

Sorry Alta, looks like things don't always work out smarty-pants city folks and outsiders trying impose their wisdom on a different community:

https://www.cpr.org/2023/04/14/color...wn-exemptions/

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Well there goes my early retirement plan. I was already measuring out the ADU options ;)

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

They want perceived safety, a slower place of life and fun shit to do. They've got the money to travel for culture, restaurants, and so on.

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No shit. Why do you think pretty much everyone who posts on the PNW page lives in North Bend, a suburb 30 minutes from Seattle? People want safety, they want good schools, they want green space, they want good restaurants. Places like North Bend and Summit Co didn't always have good schools. But enough yuppies move in to make the schools good, which brings in more city yuppies. And so on, and so on. And before you know, places that were "rural" and affordable at one point are the most unaffordable places in the US.

I would quit arguing if the mountain people would stand up and proudly declare that they are a NIMBY. What I can't stand is saying they are against NIMBISM, but then make the same, tired, NIMBY arguments. I have heard them all. Like ending SFH zoning will actually make things more expensive because now your house will be worth more becuase you can build a 4 plex on the lot. Or, if building new housing made things cheaper, then why are things so expensive even though we are building like mad. It's ok to be a NIMBY. It's human nature. All of my friends here are NIMBYs. I am actually quite shocked with this get rid of SFH zoning movement. I have little faith in America and assumed we would continue our NIMBY practices till the day I die.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Summit Co didn't always have good schools.

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And it does now? Only half the schools in the county are "green" performance, the others are yellow or red. The drug use and suicide rates are scary. The district only got a green performance plan after appealing their 2022 rating. There's plenty of other drama too.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

I

And who do you think these people moving to Aspen are? They are smarty-pants city people with their big city, work from home job. They will bring in their big city ideas, like density, walkibility, transit. I love how people move from places like Chicago move to Aspen, live a few years, and all of sudden they are the "community" and know best how that community should be developed.

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dis

growing up in a college down my old man would get annoyed because another overly educated know it all would move to town while their partner worked on their masters or phd meanwhile they would parade all round town telling everyone how to live and how it should be and poof a few years later they are gone and replaced by a carbon copy of themselves

same shit in ski town usa some dip shit thinks they know whats best

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Originally Posted by summit

And it does now? Only half the schools in the county are "green" performance, the others are yellow or red. The drug use and suicide rates are scary. The district only got a green performance plan after appealing their 2022 rating. There's plenty of other drama too.

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LOL

the fuck show of summit county schools

at least the old guard ruled with an iron fist and the nepotism was rampant but hey they kept shit in order and made everything look great on the outside

How do you think we got a Whole Foods?

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Originally Posted by altasnob

if building new housing made things cheaper, then why are things so expensive even though we are building like mad.

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I'm not against building. There is a lot of building.

But the reason has been explained to you repeatedly.

In a city the primary competition for residential real estate is between local residents. Building more helps here. If it is built out, density is the only way to build more.

In a ski town, building market units like mad doesn't help ski town prices for local residents because the primary purchasers of residential real estate are wealthy people from around the state, country, planet. These folks are second home buyers, STR investors, and remote workers and they vastly outnumber and can significantly outspend local workforce and will happily purchase all the new construction that is not deed restricted for more than the local workforce can pay.

Then you get the problem of the open market new construction generating additional workforce needs.

This is why the mountain towns are trying to do deed restriction, by partnerships in new construction and by incentivized conversion of existing, instead of densifying with open market units. There are problems here too, but it is in the execution rather than the concept, as Foggy has pointed out.

You are swinging at a piñata that ain't there and everyone is laughing at you. Things I would like in my backyard.

Stable housing that can be afforded by teachers

I viable public transit system that transits Hwy 40 from Winter Park to Kremming that connects with other public transit systems in the Front Range and Summit. Park n Rides

Higher density apartment buildings within walking distance of transit in the town centers of WP, Fraser, Granby and Tabernash.

A more progressive property tax system that places a larger burden on massive homes.

A county trails initiative

Bias towards infill and development within existing water and sewer districts

and so on

As an attorney I'd expect you to do a little bit better about convincing people instead of assuming they don't agree with you and then painting that caricature. Your lack of faith is telling.

I like Foggy's initiatives. You should run for BoCC

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Snob, do you ever ask yourself, "what if I'm wrong?"

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Never ever. And he’ll double and triple down on his asinine ramblings. His full of shit meter is pegged 100% of the time.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Zoning is this generation's slavery. You have half the country stuck in their ways, and the other half realizing we have to change the entire way we live on this planet. Climate change, crappy winters, forest fires, car-centric culture, lack of public transit. All because of single family zoning.

Poor communities are not fighting density. It is the wealthy places like Vail and Coronado that are fighting it. If liv2ski won't sue, someone else will. It's a war out there, just like the civil war. Liv2ski says he won't do it becuase he would be taking on city hall. Well, he would have the support of the state of CA and the majority of it's citizens behind him.

This anti-zoning movement is interesting becuase it was born in CA, OR, and WA, places where zoning has driven up housing costs. For years, old, NIMBY, liberals in these states promoted zoning to keep the status quo (at the expense of the poor and marginalized). But the next generation of liberals are saying fuck that. There are now enough of these next generation liberals that things are changing and single family zoning is getting abolished. The anti-zoning movement is not strictly a liberal cause either because it also has the support of anti-regulation states and developers.

This movement will spread. It's shown itself in CO and that law may not pass this year. But CA had been trying for years to get rid of zoning on the state level and finally was able to break through. Now the flood gates are open.

Mountain towns are interesting becuase unlike metro areas, you can make the argument that the natural environment simply cannot support the growth. But you can't make that argument in major metro areas like San Diego.

This was in the NYTimes this morning:

The 100-Year-Old Reason U.S. Housing Is So Expensive, which discussed a new book from a Yale law prof, “America’s Frozen Neighborhoods: The Abuse of Zoning.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/14/o...by-zoning.html

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You could’ve just wrote the word no.

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Originally Posted by summit

I like Foggy's initiatives. You should run for BoCC

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Its a fulltime job and it doesn't pay enough. And I could never affiliate with a political party. I've been asked. Plus I make people cry.

Here is another way to think about it. If my shit bag contractor friends and I have more workforce housing, you know what we'd do? Build more houses for rich people. You know how the attainable housing units get built? They use cheaper contractors from the city, pay them a per diem and they usually chose to rent a STR because it has a kitchen and is a better deal.

You're not the only one Snob. Lots of people like to dream up an alternate reality about something they really have no idea about just so they can sleep better at night. As mentioned, you'd fit right in at the public meetings. You'll have to put a study on the dress code if you want people to respect you. The safe choice is just go ski clothes in the winter or bike clothes in the summer. Unless the engagement is late then people think you are coming from the bar.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

I would quit arguing if the mountain people would stand up and proudly declare that they are a NIMBY.

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Absolute bullshit. You’ll never stop arguing. It’s the only thing you got. You are a fucking liar.

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Originally Posted by Name Redacted

How do you think we got a Whole Foods?

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perfect example of wealthy nimby activism

a super walmart was proposed for the whole foods location as well as in silverthorne people argued every which way against a super walmart
a home depot was proposed for the whole foods lot and was argued agaist left and right

the whole foods lot was owned by the town of frisco they purchased it for nothing with the intent of large scale retail development that would add to the towns tax base

guess what whole foods and a developer announce they are going to open a store and every d-bag nimby piece of shit couldn't jump for joy high enough

I do like prowling for milfs there don't get me wrong
go ski you fucking sluts

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Attorney's like to say "Sue everyone" because that's your world.

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When your main tool’s a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Things I would like in my backyard.

Stable housing that can be afforded by teachers

I viable public transit system that transits Hwy 40 from Winter Park to Kremming that connects with other public transit systems in the Front Range and Summit. Park n Rides

Higher density apartment buildings within walking distance of transit in the town centers of WP, Fraser, Granby and Tabernash.

A more progressive property tax system that places a larger burden on massive homes.

A county trails initiative

Bias towards infill and development within existing water and sewer districts

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Great list of demands. But none of that will ever happen. Your mountain town will become more and more unaffordable every year. The labor shortages complaints will continue. That teacher may find affordable housing. . . in an ADU in Aurora with a 4+ hour round trip commute every day. And I will keep coming back here for my daily cup of schadenfreude

Maybe stop by Walgreens and see if they have an ointment for that attitude? They aren't demands, not even goals, just ideas.

I'll know its time to go when we get a drycleaners. Until then, I'm gonna at least try to have an impact on what the future of my home looks like. I've got no time for the fuck the world, hoard a pile as I go down with the ship shitbags.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

I wonder if those ADUs were unpermitted?

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I have no idea. My friends probably is permitted as he did a substantial remodel, so inspectors were around.

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Originally Posted by fastfred

perfect example of wealthy nimby activism

a super walmart was proposed for the whole foods location as well as in silverthorne people argued every which way against a super walmart
a home depot was proposed for the whole foods lot and was argued agaist left and right

the whole foods lot was owned by the town of frisco they purchased it for nothing with the intent of large scale retail development that would add to the towns tax base

guess what whole foods and a developer announce they are going to open a store and every d-bag nimby piece of shit couldn't jump for joy high enough

I do like prowling for milfs there don't get me wrong
go ski you fucking sluts

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Classic. The fascination with Whole Foods is bewildering to me. Decent fast food I guess? And fuck Bezos

CO land use bill is 106 pages and is getting 50 pages of amendments and the 15 mountain towns affected all still oppose it, as does the state senator for their district.

Listed Thusday afternoon, open house Saturday, multiple cash offers over asking same day, under contract Monday morning. In Ogden. I'm guessing this would've gone for 450k pre-pandemic. Seems like the market is still pretty hot.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...3_M16077-58370

edit: and I just noticed that three of those bedrooms don't comply as bedrooms.