Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

At some point it feels like the Fed has decided we need a recession and is just pushing us into it for no reason.

I just don’t understand why they think spiking interest rates like this is going to solve the inflationary pressure we see right now.

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Maybe they think if they can precipitate a housing correction lower housing prices will offset the inflation in the rest of the economy that they have no control over? Seems misguided and more likely to reduce new housing starts and further contract supply long-term, but WTFDIK.

Also, everyone seems to have forgotten that housing prices were flat for a decade. Sure, shit went crazy for two years, but most places are not much higher than they would have been over the same period with normal 4-5% YOY appreciation.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

At some point it feels like the Fed has decided we need a recession and is just pushing us into it for no reason.

I just don’t understand why they think spiking interest rates like this is going to solve the inflationary pressure we see right now.

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I’ve been harping about this to friends. And what’s most frustrating is that the inflationary pressures are in the supply chain that the Fed can’t solve. It’s a complete disaster in the making. My conspiracy theory is that the capitalist are freaking out about wages rising and employees gaining more power. Simple solution is to tank the entire economy so they can regain leverage over labor.


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Originally Posted by altacoup

I’ve been harping about this to friends. And what’s most frustrating is that the inflationary pressures are in the supply chain that the Fed can’t solve. It’s a complete disaster in the making. My conspiracy theory is that the capitalist are freaking out about wages rising and employees gaining more power. Simple solution is to tank the entire economy so they can regain leverage over labor.


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thats far fetch but not totally out of line

when I go get a 3-4% cash out of heloc based on over inflated property value and piss the money away on #vanlife then buy a yeti cooler maybe new skis and go on vacation with all that free money that is part of the problem

supply chain is easy and was a disaster in the making for decades then covid did it in
retailers and wholesalers did not want to stock any inventory or as little inventory as possible because that is money sitting on the shelves
who knew that would be a problem?
take outdoor furniture retailers bet on the extended covid demand and now they are sitting on tons of stock that isn't selling

labor market is about time corporations jack up prices to increase profit since they now have to pay $20 an hr to fast food workers in some areas
people rather sit at home and not work than make $9.00 an hr do the math you work one hour and that will not even buy you lunch anymore but people think that is acceptable

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Originally Posted by altacoup

I’ve been harping about this to friends. And what’s most frustrating is that the inflationary pressures are in the supply chain that the Fed can’t solve. It’s a complete disaster in the making. My conspiracy theory is that the capitalist are freaking out about wages rising and employees gaining more power. Simple solution is to tank the entire economy so they can regain leverage over labor.


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Yeah. That’s exactly how I’m feeling about. Feels like the market wants to slow the economy in an election year to get more favorable policy outcomes from a change in power.

One thing people are overlooking is that monetary policy people are raising interest rates all over the world, not just here. But yeah, there is probably a domino effect.

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Originally Posted by fastfred

labor market is about time corporations jack up prices to increase profit since they now have to pay $20 an hr to fast food workers in some areas
people rather sit at home and not work than make $9.00 an hr do the math you work one hour and that will not even buy you lunch anymore but people think that is acceptable

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I had to eat at a Wendy's the other day when I was on the road and a chicken sandwich was like $8.50. Not even a combo, just a sandwich. And one of their salads was $13. They have jacked shit way up but yeah, they need to pay people a lot more to work there, and god forbid the big wigs don't make as much money as they used to.

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Originally Posted by fastfred

thats far fetch but not totally out of line

labor market is about time corporations jack up prices to increase profit since they now have to pay $20 an hr to fast food workers in some areas
people rather sit at home and not work than make $9.00 an hr do the math you work one hour and that will not even buy you lunch anymore but people think that is acceptable

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Even at $20/hr people are balking at working. They want more incentives. Sign on bonuses, paid time off, paid sick leave. Decent healthcare. I mean, the nerve of these workers asking for such things. Makes you want to off-shore jobs to SE Asia or India.

Capitalists all over the world are trying to regain leverage over labor. Labor has more leverage over employers than they’ve had at any time since Regan destroyed Unions in this country. The wealthy aren’t happy

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Originally Posted by Toadman

Even at $20/hr people are balking at working. They want more incentives. Sign on bonuses, paid time off, paid sick leave. Decent healthcare. I mean, the nerve of these workers asking for such things. Makes you want to off-shore jobs to SE Asia or India.

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nothing wrong with that
it should all be written into law nationally
I just upped my time off a year from around 6 weeks to 8 weeks its amazing even though I still get to work to some degree when I'm not in the "office"


the gov't just asked the big banking d bags to come answer questions
its was embarrassing all around just a good photo op to make the politicians and jamie demon look good and pretend they care
it would have been nice if they asked some real questions

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Originally Posted by fastfred

<snip> that free eazy money has been out of control the past three years now

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Easy money has been out of control for much longer than that...

Attachment 427154

I recently came across our 1st mortgage info from the year 2000 - our rate was 8.25%.

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Originally Posted by altacoup

Capitalists all over the world are trying to regain leverage over labor. Labor has more leverage over employers than they’ve had at any time since Regan destroyed Unions in this country. The wealthy aren’t happy

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no shit
when someone in mexico or laos wants 5 dollars a day instead of 3 that kind of fucks up the system

when whitney white trash with her three kids living in her moms trailer outside of saint louis rather be on the dole to raise her kids instead of making 12 an hr whats the incentive much easier to sit around the house bitching about the dollar menu and surfing the internet all day

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Originally Posted by fastfred

no shit
when someone in mexico or laos wants 5 dollars a day instead of 3 that kind of fucks up the system

when whitney white trash with her three kids living in her moms trailer outside of saint louis rather be on the dole to raise her kids instead of making 12 an hr whats the incentive much easier to sit around the house bitching about the dollar menu and surfing the internet all day

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You know $12/hr is like $25,000 a year, right? In what world can a mom of three survive on that? No shit she doesn't want to go work for that and cancel out the benefits she gets like healthcare and food assistance for her kids, just so she can be just as broke, but then have to pay for childcare.

It's not a moral failing of your mythical mother here, it's good business. Even $20/hr is only like $40k. Nobody is raising a family on that. Hell, you can't live on that as a single person with no debt in any metro area.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

You know $12/hr is like $25,000 a year, right? In what world can a mom of three survive on that? No shit she doesn't want to go work for that and cancel out the benefits she gets like healthcare and food assistance for her kids, just so she can be just as broke, but then have to pay for childcare.

It's not a moral failing of your mythical mother here, it's good business. Even $20/hr is only like $40k. Nobody is raising a family on that. Hell, you can't live on that as a single person with no debt in any metro area.

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And while I completely agree with the message, isn't it peoples responsibility to position themselves to earn that $40+ an hour once done with school? Is it the failure of many parents and the education system? We all have seen useless parents that are not preparing their children for squat. Should people have to demonstrate a level of success and understanding of the world around them before being allowed to breed? (Good luck enforcing that one). And education in the USA? Don't get me started on how it fails to prepare kids for post High School. They are not all going to Harvard, so let's help the other kids get training in trades or two year degree/certificates, that will pay them down the road.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

And while I completely agree with the message, isn't it peoples responsibility to position themselves to earn that $40+ an hour once done with school? Is it the failure of many parents and the education system? We all have seen useless parents that are not preparing their children for squat. Should people have to demonstrate a level of success and understanding of the world around them before being allowed to breed? (Good luck enforcing that one). And education in the USA? Don't get me started on how it fails to prepare kids for post High School. They are not all going to Harvard, so let's help the other kids get training in trades or two year degree/certificates, that will pay them down the road.

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I mean, kind of, but right now "success" in the US as a kid is basically just a lottery. Are you born into a well-off family? Then unless you're a real fuck up, you're probably going to be ok. Are you born into a poor family? Good luck.

There are exceptions that prove the rule, and lots of 1%-ers like to tout them as ways to keep people grinding away for peanuts, but class mobility is I think at an all-time low. With numbers like this, it's not a moral failing of the kids, or the parents, it's a generations-long, systemic issue that touches on education, career opportunities, how we pay people in jobs that are typically done by women and POC, costs of housing and healthcare, etc.

Attachment 427156

I have an employee single mom of three that doesn’t want a raise because her subsidized rent will go up.

She could make more sitting at home. The system is fubar.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

<snip> Hell, you can't live on that as a single person with no debt in any slightly desirable metro area.

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Fixed that. :D

We like to obfuscate the base problem of our issues with lots of hand waving about education, incentives, moral failings, blah, blah, blah, yet it almost always can be boiled down to the same thing:

The inexorable sucking sound that is wealth inequality.

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Originally Posted by Supermoon

Even $20/hr is only like $40k. Nobody is raising a family on that. Hell, you can't live on that as a single person with no debt in any metro area.

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I agree with your overall points, 100%. But this is incorrect hyperbole, even with skaredshtles's "fixed". You may not be able to live in NYC or SF, but, for ex, you can definitely live on $40k as a single person in the Denver metro. You may not be able to live the way you want, you might have to have roommates or not live right downtown, but you can certainly get by. I know this for a fact because my nephew lives in Denver and has done just fine on that salary or similar.

Granted, with the way inflation is going, maybe not for long, lol.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

And while I completely agree with the message, isn't it peoples responsibility to position themselves to earn that $40+ an hour once done with school? Is it the failure of many parents and the education system? We all have seen useless parents that are not preparing their children for squat. Should people have to demonstrate a level of success and understanding of the world around them before being allowed to breed? (Good luck enforcing that one). And education in the USA? Don't get me started on how it fails to prepare kids for post High School. They are not all going to Harvard, so let's help the other kids get training in trades or two year degree/certificates, that will pay them down the road.

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$40/hr is ~$84k a year, which is 17% higher than the us median household income last year, roughly the dividing line between the top two earning quintiles and the bottom three. Everyone ain’t getting there

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Originally Posted by dunfree

Everyone ain’t getting there

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I would like to live in a world where it is mostly possible and if not then I still want those people to have access to healthcare, a good education for the children, housing they can afford, food, etc. There is no reason the USA can not provide this to all except for corporate greed and politicians doing what is best for their donors, not the people they represent.

The US housing market has gone from FOMO to just plain fear. Prices are falling from peak levels, with expensive West Coast markets recording the steepest declines. Bidding wars are fading and sellers are ratcheting down expectations. It should all add up to an opportunity for would-be buyers who have been waiting to gain the upper hand after a years-long market frenzy. Instead, they’re facing the worst affordability in almost four decades. The abrupt end to the pandemic housing boom, driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes, is leading to a sense of paralysis in the market — a sign price declines will accelerate. With mortgage rates at the highest level since 2008, house hunters have gone scarce, priced out or worried about overpaying as America braces for a potential recession. Even big Wall Street buyers are holding fire, waiting for lower values ahead. “Everyone is coming to the view that prices are going to decline,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “Until that happens, nobody is going to buy.”

Thanks Biden

(No really thanks cuz my savings account rate is almost more than my mortgage rate...keep going)

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Originally Posted by Danno

I agree with your overall points, 100%. But this is incorrect hyperbole, even with skaredshtles's "fixed". You may not be able to live in NYC or SF, but, for ex, you can definitely live on $40k as a single person in the Denver metro. You may not be able to live the way you want, you might have to have roommates or not live right downtown, but you can certainly get by. I know this for a fact because my nephew lives in Denver and has done just fine on that salary or similar.

Granted, with the way inflation is going, maybe not for long, lol.

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He said desirable, right? Everyone says the I70 traffic makes Denver unliveable! [emoji12]

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Originally Posted by Danno

I agree with your overall points, 100%. But this is incorrect hyperbole, even with skaredshtles's "fixed". You may not be able to live in NYC or SF, but, for ex, you can definitely live on $40k as a single person in the Denver metro. You may not be able to live the way you want, you might have to have roommates or not live right downtown, but you can certainly get by. I know this for a fact because my nephew lives in Denver and has done just fine on that salary or similar.

Granted, with the way inflation is going, maybe not for long, lol.

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~20% of households with children <18 have a household income <$40k. It’s about a million people more than the tgr messageboard group >$200k

Vail resorts is paying minimum of $25 hr this season. That’s pretty crazy.