Real Estate Crash thread

We found out that charging way sub market rate has led to amazing tenants, the first ones for 9 yeas, and these latest for five. They have taken care of our (pretty nice) house better than we would, in some cases. They are so grateful. They don't bother us with anything, but let us know immediately if something needs attention. We keep the house nice with the intention of moving back into it. So new roof, wood stove, stain, etc, we keep up with. It's a win-win, and we will make 5 times our investment or more when we sell. Greed isn't everything.

^We've done the same, but did not always get the best tenants.

We have been very, very lucky. Also, when we started renting, it was 2009 or so, so a bit of a recession. Then we rented for $1100!
We feel good about it, and don’t want our little Victor neighborhood (5 houses) to become a STR ghetto, so we are doing something about it besides just clutching pearls.
Rent is going up to $2200 next year, though, property taxes and a new leach field will cost a bit.
But now there are dozens of miles of fun summer/winter trails right from the door… :FIREdevil

Nice, does not whoring out your rental property garner enough TGR points to cancel out owning 2 V8 pick ups and accepting a PPP loan? Because I do that too.

Back to the PPP, it felt dirty at the time and still does. Micro economically speaking, I had a $50K job cancelled as the homeowner thought everything was gonna go on sale as asked the GC to renegotiate the contract. Simultaneously, other businesses in town (property management companies, cleaners, handypeople etc.) were using their PPP money to come into my space, offer sign on bonuses, prospect my customers for work etc. when their bread and butter business (STR service, entering peoples occupied space etc.), were more of less shut down.

I did turn around and employ a handful ski area and service industry folks for a bit but they all decided to take the unemployment. I don't claim to be a great economist but I do know that PPP money was used to purchase recreational vehicles, make down payments on property and take vacations. From my view, this contributed to a run up in the prices of these products. Call it what you want.

And for you closet CPA throwing up the fraud flag, for many small business the owner is also an employee. Payment to the owner is frequently is the form of wages. As a mental short cut, we will say things like, I spent it on a snowmobile whist what we really mean is that it flowed to the bottom line one way or another. For those enraged, see if your employer too the PPP.

What else...well the new second homeowner have his and hers matching GOTOS Forerunners. I haven't asked them is they are full time or not. I wonder where they get childcare for the two littles.

I see a Benny Profane thread and I get nostalgic. Anyone else?

On the STR topic:

Short-term rentals made up nearly 43% — almost half — of Park City's housing stock in 2020.
https://www.ksl.com/article/50432811...housing-market

Data is 2 years old, probably >50% by now.

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Originally Posted by Dantheman

On the STR topic:

Short-term rentals made up nearly 43% — almost half — of Park City's housing stock in 2020.
https://www.ksl.com/article/50432811...housing-market

Data is 2 years old, probably >50% by now.

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What could possibly go wrong?

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Originally Posted by Timberridge

I see a Benny Profane thread and I get nostalgic. Anyone else?

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It’s not the same without him. RIP

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Originally Posted by Dantheman

On the STR topic:

Short-term rentals made up nearly 43% — almost half — of Park City's housing stock in 2020.
https://www.ksl.com/article/50432811...housing-market
Data is 2 years old, probably >50% by now.

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Wow. Unreal PC never clamped down hard on that.
My town did it too late (better late than never) but it's a move any desirable place should do.

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Originally Posted by Mani_UT

Wow. Unreal PC never clamped down hard on that.
My town did it too late (better late than never) but it's a move any desirable place should do.

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it is crazy, but are those STR available listed year-round? I know a ton of families only rent their homes during Sundance, so their house is still lived in by locals. So technically 43% may be high -but I'm sure its still very high.

It pushes out the locals sure but what local can afford all those massive houses all being rented downtown? Millionares have to buy somewhere else I guess. Minimum wage workers were not renting out those.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

YoY cost of ownership is up more than 80%. With things starting to cool off in California, I really wonder how many more cash infused buyers there are lined up to buy in Montana. Certainly the local economy cannot support $4k mortgage payments for anyone other than local doctors and remote workers.

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This is true in most hot markets imo. A correction back down to prices where the mortgages are sustainable for the local economy will happen at some point, no?

Probably not in mountain towns.

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Originally Posted by Lindahl

This is true in most hot markets imo. A correction back down to prices where the mortgages are sustainable for the local economy will happen at some point, no?

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sustainable for the local economy is meaningless drivel

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Originally Posted by Lindahl

This is true in most hot markets imo. A correction back down to prices where the mortgages are sustainable for the local economy will happen at some point, no?

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Not sure in desirable areas. If people can work remotely it opens up a world of possibilities as to where they can live. I read on the Reddit Mammoth forum that prices have tripled in the last 3 years :eek: I guess prices were fair 3 years ago, but now? Anyways, I don't imagine prices are coming back down to 2019 levels.

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Originally Posted by Lindahl

This is true in most hot markets imo. A correction back down to prices where the mortgages are sustainable for the local economy will happen at some point, no?

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In "Hot" markets like Boise, yes. In "Hot" tourism destinations, not so much. There will always be people from outside, who have money, and want a piece of that pie. Inventory is the only remedy in these towns. Right now the Summit county RE market inventory is up 60% from last year, so we are seeing prices maybe level out a bit. DOM is getting somewhat longer. Etc. But I doubt there's any kind of real correction back to locally affordability levels coming. Just a little churn by investment folks. Lots of flips and stuff like that. WFH also throws a big wrench into the local affordability thing. Till that phenomenon slows, (Hint: it ain't, no matter what Elon says), it is gonna be tough for the local baristas to own. But it always has been.

Several hot market factoids about this property:
- sold for 27% over list
- 500k return for seller in less than 2 years
- pending to close in less than a week so cash sale

https://www.redfin.com/ME/Portland/1.../home/85739187

Guy did not own it 2 years by a few months to get the Capital Gain break? What is going on here?

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Guy did not own it 2 years by a few months to get the Capital Gain break? What is going on here?

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1031? Can't remember if it works with STCGs. Good for him.

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Originally Posted by Name Redacted

1031? Can't remember if it works with STCGs. Good for him.

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Here is another thing that blows my mind. How are 1031 even a thing. Imagine having some FB stock with big CG and rolling it tax free into say some AMZN stock without paying taxes. The whole RE world is way overly generous tax wise and it's fucking the middle class trying to own a single home.

Cap gains tax differences and loopholes in general need to be eliminated.

1031s are only tax deferment. I believe the original intent was encourage residential rental properties. Obviously it isn't working out like that. The tax code, mortgage industry etc. is just one giant loop hole being exploited to the determent of many.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

1031s are only tax deferment. I believe the original intent was encourage residential rental properties. Obviously it isn't working out like that. The tax code, mortgage industry etc. is just one giant loop hole being exploited to the determent of many.

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Yes.. The lawmaking caused by the legalized bribery by lobbyists should be made illegal.. But it won't be because conservatives want to keep expanding legalized bribery.. And the liberals are not much better than the conservatives in that matter.

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Originally Posted by dunfree

sustainable for the local economy is meaningless drivel

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Not for non-resort/vacation towns. There are other types of hot markets out there.

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Originally Posted by Lindahl

Not for non-resort/vacation towns. There are other types of hot markets out there.

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every market has a balance of buyers entering, sellers leaving, and a “local” group of “locals” buying in, and current area home owners trading up. What matters is who these are with what money. Many markets are unaffordable to locals

Brilliant!

https://scontent.fapa1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...CQ&oe=62C7223E