I'd just leave it at this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
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I'd just leave it at this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
Specific words matter when you're talking about technical terms.
trolls get hungry for attention…
Attachment 420176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Self quoting. Wtf asshats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
I was clear from first post what inflation is.
And how it leads to your butthurt grocery inflation.
But please. School me on the current inflation.
Im waiting.
Does it involve Ukraine?
OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Attachment 420177
M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?
Yes. It’s coming.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
It’s weird st Louis reports M3. But not the actual fed.
PS. That chart is scary
The very definition of inflation is an increase in consumer prices. Everyone is telling you are wrong, yet you keep ploughing ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Just like your bullshit 911 conspiracies. I still can’t believe you keep quoting the Melting Point of steel as evidence of why they couldn’t collapse.
I guess if you are dumb enough to make and standby that argument this shouldn’t be a surprise.
If you truly believe that massive inflation is coming, you should buy shit tons of TIPS. You’ll make a killing if you’re right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Bond market is currently pricing in an average 2.73% inflation over the next 5 years, 2.23% the following 5.
Man, that's a lot of money sitting in the uber rich stock funds and bank accounts. Most of it never taxed.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
Yeah. It’s interesting times. I don’t have free cash. All my money is on hard assets. Which is usually a good hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
It’s crazy what you say that the market is pricing 2 to 3 percent inflation.
I don’t follow it as much as you obviously. But just go shopping for food or gas. It’s nutters.
Edumacate me why the market isn’t seeing inflation?
TIPS are based on federal inflation rates which have been lying for decades.
Around here labor is insane. If you can find someone that wants to work.
It’s trickle up economics.
Inflation (price inflation. Not monetary)
. Without “substitution”
They changed the rules.
Attachment 420180
Disagree on the TIPS thing actually. If inflation goes up ( more than what’s currently priced) rates will go up. Tips are a longer duration asset. So you’ll get hit w the duration component. Just won’t get hit as hard as regularly T bonds. See: Q1 2022. Tips kinda suck.
It’s interesting to look at the somewhat similar to the usa crash in Australian consumer sentiment and compare it to the massively different pandemic response and prepandemic situationQuote:
Originally Posted by Summer
And lots of houses sell at auction, yeah, lots of differences
my ancedata is also way more extended family property magnets.
Wow. That’s insane. None of those houses are nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summer
Hmmm, shadowstats, seems legit. Also love how they don't drag the x axis back to 1990 to show difference from origin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Let me guess, Google searches for something that supported your position?
I’ve been a fan of shadowstats since the feds stopped counting inflation the way they used to.
Substitution is bullshit.
I’m not sure they are legit. But our government lies to us. So I trust independent sites more than the fed.
Ymmv. Or. Just look at your bills and expenses.
Here’s the beginning of the discrepancy
Attachment 420190
To be clear: no one should be taking investment advice from me. I find the economics of it all pretty interesting, but couldn’t tell you anything about tax implications when investing outside of a 401k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
The Fed probably still tracks your preferred measure of inflation , it just might not be the one that’s widely reported, or the one that the Fed targets for monetary policy, or the one that is used to adjust Social Security cost of living.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Attachment 420193
Edit: Also, substitution is not bullshit. It’s grounded in pretty sound reasoning:
”Mainstream economists have a standard response: If we did not account for changed consumption patterns in response to changed prices, they say, we would overstate the cost of maintaining a constant level of satisfaction. Consider an example. Last week you went to the supermarket and bought 5 pounds of chicken at $2 a pound and 5 pounds of steak at $5 a pound, $35 total. This week you go to the supermarket and find that chicken still costs $2 but steak has gone up to $10. There is no question that the new prices leave you worse off than you were the week before, but how do you react?
You would need $60 to buy the same basket of goods that you bought last week for $35. In reality, you might not have that $60 in your wallet or purse, but if I gave you a $60 coupon that you could spend only at the meat counter, you would probably not spend it on the same basket of goods you bought last week. Instead, you might buy, say, 10 pounds of chicken and 4 pounds of steak. However, since $60 would be enough to buy your previous selection if you wanted to, we could conclude that you would change the mix only if the new $60 selection gave you more satisfaction than the original one.”
https://www.thestreet.com/economonit...-by-economists
But in the end, all of these different measures are just tools to try and understand what’s going on in the economy. Different measures are going to make sense to use depending on what you’re trying to understand. If you don’t want to consider substitution effects, then just check the non-chained CPI.
Got this in my email box this morning;
Quote:
Vote to Limit “Fractional Share”, Timeshare and Corporate Occupancy
Say NO to Short-Term Occupancy.
Last fall Owners in our HOA passed an amendment to the CC&R’s to prohibit short-term rentals, defined as rental periods of less than 30 days. An overwhelming majority, 85% to 15%, wanted to ensure short-term occupancy of homes within our community was not allowed. At the time we began this balloting process in 2020, VRBO-like rentals were the primary concern relative to short-term, transient use of properties. There are now other threats rapidly developing in the real estate arena, including one that focuses on “fractional share ownership or use”, which typically targets eight owners sharing a home. They are similar to timeshares, but with fewer owners. There are two companies we are aware of in the Central Oregon market that are now purchasing homes and then trying to immediately sell fractional shares in these properties. One is Pacaso Homes (pacaso.com), and the other is Ember (emberhome.com).
Per reviewing their websites, a 1/8th ownership in a home typically results in the following:
• An Owner gets 44-45 days of usage per year of the property
• That typically happens over 6-7 visits (6-7 day average per visit, meaning that every week a different Owner comes in)
• On an exception bases, the maximum length of a stay is 14 days, i.e. their model mandates short-term stays
• The home cannot be rented but an owner can designate “registered guests”, which can be anybody the owner wants. An Owner does not have to be present for any such stay.
One home has already been purchased by Pacaso within our HOA, and the sale of fractional shares in this home is currently being marketed. Therefore, it is with a sense of urgency that we are recommending that we quickly vote to amend our CC&R’s to prohibit this fractional share ownership structure, any timeshare structure, and any other workaround-type structure that currently exists or may be developed for the purpose of creating short-term occupancy use of a home. We can’t necessarily stop the one home that was already purchased, but we can impact all future such transactions with an approved amendment.
Paging Art Shirk to the white courtesy phone!
How the fuck do you sell fractional shares in a hoa?
I have seen them for years as condos in B.C. (Victoria). The buyers obviously all participate in utilities, HOA and special assessment fees.
these companies have been around for awhile nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
one of them just folded recently based out of denver can't remember the details
it's a pyramid scheme unfortunately they need lots of buys and need to see 9/8 ownership not 8/8 to survive
the numbers don't add up and like a time share the maintenance costs are sorta hidden and will give the buyer a suprise at some point
just had a good discussion about south park (fairplay colorado) area today the writing is on the wall over there
way too over valued and one too many homeowner builds plus people who think they can build cheap over there lots of unfinished properties and lots of over valued homes on the market just sitting and other people who realized they bought a house at the end of shitty dirt road
Used to do some work with a COA that was fractional. Pain in the ass. They fired me-probably because they didn't want to hear what they needed to. Four buildings needed new roofs for a total of about $180k. They voted no because they didn't want the assessment. Without deep details, a few other bills came up due to the lack of upkeep and those bills were a lot more than $180k.