Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Who the fuck do you think is doing the marketing? Mountain towns have small armies of promoters with national reach and, buddy, if you think they are advertising to the working class, you are really naive. Dirt pimps spend a lot of effort bombarding wealthy folks with the message that mountain towns are awesome investments that are always appreciating. Thats what they do. The dirt pimp dream is to turn their town into an inverted pyramid of wealth.

C'mon man. Dirt pimps do not aspire to sell affordable housing. It's all "line go up" and they have the hype machine to push it up.

When your mountain town gets a Sotheby's office, it is truly fucked.

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DING! DING! DING!!! I never fully understood the magnitude of this phenomenon until I got a peak behind the curtain of the inner workings of the mountain town machine. At least where I was, what ended up being THE primary real estate company is owned by the same investment firms that also own the resort, the "local" newspaper, the magazines, all the largest developments (the YC to Spanish Peaks to BS to MLB), the commercial RE the shops rent from, etc. Sheeeit, they even own many of the subcontractors, from electrician services to interior design! They've gone full "Vail Resorts" in regard to the interconnections between the entire system. And yes, they advertise the crap out of the real estate from coast to coast and beyond. The explosive growth is no accident. Just sucks for those who have been there this whole time. Like our friends over in the trailer park by the Whitewater Inn. I feel for those guys. :(
https://www.explorebigsky.com/a-smal...-housing/49253

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

D. And thank god that the old model is breaking down where people arenÂ’t underpaid serfs working for the ski resort and the FS and the hospital for crap wages and zero upward mobility.

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Wow.

WTF, you think the resort, FS and the hospital suddenly stop needing employees? You think their pay magically doubles when the WFH crowd comes in?

This is like saying "thank god the old model where we shared space with underpaid serfs is breaking down. Thank god those hospital workers got pushed down valley to where the underpaid serfs belong. Thank god their skimpy pay is now being stretched with the costs of a 45 minute commute. Thank god I now have to pay $35 for a pizza."

Hospital pay here has allowed many friends to buy locally, that’s why so many mtn town lifers seem to be getting into healthcare. Meanwhile ski resort pay has jumped considerably in the last 3-4 yrs due to all these pressures.

USFS struggles to fill job openings, that trend started years ago and was happening even when you could buy a newer 3 bdrm/2 bath for $300k here. That’s a whole other thread.

For the record I do think corporations should consider the WFH employee location when determining compensation.

Fair enough Neckdeep. I know Teton Valley is pretty special in the WSJ, Outside Mag top 10 and so on. I mean, how can you resist! https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

And yeah, LS, no shit that in the dog eat dog, fuck you I got mine world, C.R.E.A.M is the way to go. I respect your opinion but it does sound a bit the the problem is the solution. I think you live around here https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card Put that box in my hood or Neekdeeps and it would sell for double by lunch time.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Wow.

WTF, you think the resort, FS and the hospital suddenly stop needing employees? You think their pay magically doubles when the WFH crowd comes in?

This is like saying "thank god the old model where we shared space with underpaid serfs is breaking down. Thank god those hospital workers got pushed down valley to where the underpaid serfs belong. Thank god their skimpy pay is now being stretched with the costs of a 45 minute commute."

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No, I think the hospital needs to pay more, which they can with a higher tax base.

The FS GS pay scale has been misaligned with reality for a long time. I was a USFS employee. The federal government needs to adjust the GS scale and has needed to for at least 15 - 20 years relative to the COL in mountain areas. It’s not enough and wasn’t when I was a USFS employee 15 years ago.

The ski areas need to provide better pay or provide housing or both to their employees. I was a ski area employee who got out because I saw it as a way of becoming stuck in a lifestyle that tells you $18 an hour is amazing wages and 32 hours a week is full time because MOUNTAINS BRO. Ski Areas also need to provide more stability to the employees by not kicking them to the curb in April expecting them to float to whatever magical seasonal job that won’t start til June. My local ski area built multiple housing complexes last year and is bolstering summer offerings to help with this. If they can’t find workers, they need to adapt and offer compensation that is enticing to employees, just like any other business.

We also have to break down the nimbyism. Mountain towns are desirable, and in human timescales there aren’t going to be more mountain ranges created. So, mountain towns need to invest in infrastructure that supports high density and allow high density development. The demand isn’t going away. Unless we build a lot more ski areas, but it seems that consolidation not expansion is happening in that business.

I'd like to live in that world. Let me see, if I got it right.

Grocery Store employees $50/hr.

Patrollers $60/hr. full time year around

X Ray Techs/EMS/Teachers/Fire/Police $150k+/yr.

Ski Lifts Everywhere. Little satellite villages served by trams.

Probably gonna need a 4 lane highway getting there from the airport. What else did I miss?

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Originally Posted by frorider

For the record I do think corporations should consider the WFH employee location when determining compensation.

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This is happening much more frequently now. Couple of friends are googlers and they decided to move back to the Midwest to be near family during covid.

Google took their SF pay and adjusted it for Cleveland cost of living/consumer price index (still very high pay) but it was such a reduction that they decided to retire early and start their own (non-tech) businesses.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

you are SOL in a small town.

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As a former air ambulance pilot I can confirm that's true for all of North America. I've literally had medics tell me "we need to get there before they kill him"

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

This is happening much more frequently now. Couple of friends are googlers and they decided to move back to the Midwest to be near family during covid.

Google took their SF pay and adjusted it for Cleveland cost of living/consumer price index (still very high pay) but it was such a reduction that they decided to retire early and start their own (non-tech) businesses.

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Cleveland?

:fm:

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Fair enough Neckdeep. I know Teton Valley is pretty special in the WSJ, Outside Mag top 10 and so on. I mean, how can you resist! https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

And yeah, LS, no shit that in the dog eat dog, fuck you I got mine world, C.R.E.A.M is the way to go. I respect your opinion but it does sound a bit the the problem is the solution. I think you live around here https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card Put that box in my hood or Neekdeeps and it would sell for double by lunch time.

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Yep, that’s where I live. Our ski resort just got bought by Alterra. Those little houses are hilarious for $389k. They would have been $150k 3 years ago. It’s all relative. We actually have people moving here from other mountain towns because it’s “cheap” here. Go figure. We do have a lot less nimbyism and our city is very supportive of increasing density and infrastructure. So maybe I’m in a bubble here and it’s probably way worse in the “cooler” places in Colorado etc.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I'd like to live in that world. Let me see, if I got it right.

Grocery Store employees $50/hr.

Patrollers $60/hr. full time year around

X Ray Techs/EMS/Teachers/Fire/Police $150k+/yr.

Ski Lifts Everywhere. Little satellite villages served by trams.

Probably gonna need a 4 lane highway getting there from the airport. What else did I miss?

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Switzerland is a great country to live in.

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

The ski areas need to provide better pay or provide housing or both to their employees.

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You really think being totally dependent on an employer for housing makes somebody less of a serf? Quite the opposite actually.

Just saying, employee housing is like putting a dying patient on life support. It's not fixing anything and it's really expensive. You really want to pay $50 for that pizza? If 750 sq ft shotgun shacks are selling at those prices, it will cost millions to staff a 100 seat restaurant.

At least one of the reasons that Sandpoint is cheap in comparison to other Idaho areas is because they have restricted AirBnB numbers at the city level.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

You really think being totally dependent on an employer for housing makes somebody less of a serf? Quite the opposite actually.

Just saying, employee housing is like putting a dying patient on life support. It's not fixing anything and it's really expensive.

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I agree. Housing should be extremely plentiful beyond the demand in the market that does not require subsidies or employer owned housing. We need to build a lot more.

How do we get there?

Re:Kevo - Restrictions on Airbnb is a great start.

I’m in full support of that in my town, even though it would benefit me financially to rent my house on Airbnb.

Neighborhoods should have homes not 1 unit hotels in them.

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

You really think being totally dependent on an employer for housing makes somebody less of a serf? Quite the opposite actually.

Just saying, employee housing is like putting a dying patient on life support. It's not fixing anything and it's really expensive. You really want to pay $50 for that pizza?"

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I don't know about that. I think for a lot of industries, it may help the staffing and affordability challenges. No it doesn't offer the prospects of single family home living or equity creation or financial independence from your employer but to me, those may be secondary issues that prevent addressing the immediate need.

People like us are replaceable. If we've gotta go so that the school or the hospital or the police department can be staffed with those willing to living in company/municipal housing, that may be alright. It has challenges but we gotta try something.

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Cleveland?

:fm:

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Cleveland suburbs. Their shiny new J-112 sailboat does reside on Lake Erie in Cleveland though, that they were able to buy thanks to the lower cost of living. /shrug

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

Their shiny new J-112 sailboat does reside on Lake Erie

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Pics please.

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

I agree. Housing should be extremely plentiful beyond the demand in the market that does not require subsidies or employer owned housing. We need to build a lot more.

How do we get there?

Re:Kevo - Restrictions on Airbnb is a great start.

I’m in full support of that in my town, even though it would benefit me financially to rent my house on Airbnb.

Neighborhoods should have homes not 1 unit hotels in them.

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Amen to that. My subdivision has 45 units and 18 of them are on airbnb and vrbo. It's like that all across the Valley. We have a bountiful supply of housing locked up in STRs. Somewhere between 20 to 25% of all housing in the Valley now is in STRs. Collectively, this has strangled the place and forever changed its character.

Primary residences and locality adjustments seem easily manipulated when WFH.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

I don't know about that. I think for a lot of industries, it may help the staffing and affordability challenges. No it doesn't offer the prospects of single family home living or equity creation or financial independence from your employer but to me, those may be secondary issues that prevent addressing the immediate need.

People like us are replaceable. If we've gotta go so that the school or the hospital or the police department can be staffed with those willing to living in company/municipal housing, that may be alright. It has challenges but we gotta try something.

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Ah, actually there's massive knock on effects. Instead of hiring that local nurse, the hospital has to staff with a rotation of traveling nurses who cost much more and then they have to pay for the cost to house them . So now it costs 2 to 3x more than a local nurse. Who pays for this?

All that's happened is the dirt pimps forced an endless spiral of cost increases on everyone else.

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Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

Cleveland suburbs. Their shiny new J-112 sailboat does reside on Lake Erie in Cleveland though, that they were able to buy thanks to the lower cost of living. /shrug

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Cleveland *and* a boat? Gluttons for punishment, these people. :D

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Amen to that. My subdivision has 45 units and 18 of them are on airbnb and vrbo. It's like that all across the Valley. We have a bountiful supply of housing locked up in STRs. Somewhere between 20 to 25% of all housing in the Valley now is in STRs. Collectively, this has strangled the place and forever changed its character.

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Artificially low interest rates and Airbnb together were the avenue that the dirt pimps whored out our mountain towns to 2/3/4/5/6th home owners from 2018 - 2021.

I’d like to blame tech bros/wfh and boomers retiring as the secondary issue, but it got way too cheap and easy to own a house casually in the mountains.

Fuck Airbnb.

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

Pics please.

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I’ll see if I can track one down. I know they were waiting for a slip to open up at CYC and had been keeping it up the lake a bit this summer. It’s got black sails which I’m not a fan of. But I’m also not out buying badass cruiser/racers making those decisions.

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Cleveland *and* a boat? Gluttons for punishment, these people. :D

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I think the preferred nomenclature is “Character-building”. 8 months of winter/winter-adjacent and roadwork balanced out by a summer of sailing on the most volatile Great Lake changes a person. Getting to pay for the pleasure is next level (even if I kinda wished I had a boat with such quick access like that).

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Cleveland *and* a boat? Gluttons for punishment, these people. :D

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I lol'd