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Yeah, well, that's what happens when you become the gay mecca of America. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Manhattan and the nice close suburbs are inflated from that, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
Seriously, though, I've been fighting the DINK syndrome (Dual Income No Kids) most of my adult life. The housing market, and many other prices, can be so skewed in areas where one has to compete with two income households. I've only have half of that.
I'm sensing a weird optimism in my investing grounds these days. Lots of action. I'm going to flip 4 houses this year as a means to earning cash for buying rentals since financing has dried up for those of us with more than 4 mortgages (AKA, the experienced guys). I'll let you know how the flips go. I'll be listing one tomorrow. I paid 34K. Sank roughly 10K in the remodel will list for $88,500.
How much house can you get for 34k? Good luck with the flips.Quote:
Originally Posted by meatdrink9
I agree with you on the optimism. We had three new closings in our condo building in the last 3 weeks, probably more than we had had in the previous 3 months
another thing i know 2 of my buddies scored on is they control the rental lease on their flats in the city. The city has some kind of rent control bullshit going on. They are paying like 1000 a month, a rate they signed up for 15-20 years ago. So, they have a 5 br flat, renting rooms out anywhere from 5-800 a month. To boot, they are making 80-100K. They are living rent free, pocketing rent money and have the 150K to throw down on a 600K pad in the city. Although neither of these 2 did that. They put 150K down on a house 2 hours north of the city renting them out. Benny, funny you say gay mecca, they are both gay. classic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Manhattan is full of stories like that, straight or gay. Rent control is like winning the lotto. Some Manhattanites have much cooler second homes out in the country.
manhattan has rent control too? ya, happy go lucky stories. the bastards. Ones been living rent free since i meet him in '96. STILL living in the same flat. I was like wtf. I'd never heard of rent control till moving down here. But im from the boonies outside of portland, so no suprise. Meanwhile i was paying 1500 bucks a month in the suburbs of the city. what a crock.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
I've heard from a few other agents that some Sellers are thinking the market "has turned" and actually starting to raise listing prices. I'm only guessing, but assume it HAS to be based on the media crap about "average/median sales prices rising 5 straight months", etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by meatdrink9
I think it's a BIG BIG mistake myself. I personally don't think we've seen the bottom yet... and the aching in my knee sez it might be a bigger double dip than most anyone is expecting. I think we could still have more than a year or two on the down side before it starts a true leveling off. Then who the hell knows when actual prices themselves* could head up? (*not "average/median sales prices", but true same unit kind sales)
I've still been preaching "doom and gloom"... had one guy who called me about his home over a month ago (which I had sold twice before over the last 10 years and who is now coming up on the end of his second listing with other agents) who I told I wasn't even interested unless he was willing to commit to a price reduction before we got past the first couple phone calls. I told him I thought that the agents who will still be in the business a couple years from now are really interviewing Sellers to see how motivated they really are, and not a process of Sellers interviewing agents they might list with. He hasn't called me back. Yet.
I hope I'm wrong about my dour predictions... will be listing my own home sometime the first half of 2010.
A lot of people have been talking about a double dip for a long time, and since the majority of people are wrong most of the time...Quote:
Originally Posted by mock vomit
Missing sock, it was a steal. REO. roughly 1200 sq ft. Awesome original woodwork that just needed love. I'll post up the remodeled pics tomorrow.
Mock Vomit, Yeah I'm still playing conservative (the way I always have, the reason why I'm still in the game). I won't buy anything that doesn't work in a number of ways (rent or flip). It will be interesting to see what type of response I get. I've really only been buying for the last couple of years.
I got a major reduction in my mortgage monthly since appraisal values have gone down and I like that.
This is ridiculous. There will always be someone with more disposable income than you. Pretending that it is a "syndrome" that somehow affects you or that you are "fighting" it is sour grapes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
WTF you talk"n bout Willis? Did you get a Modification?Quote:
Originally Posted by splat
If not a Mod..... How did you get your servicer to reduce payments because of value?
If your on a "Option ARM" your payment could go down if you index rate decreases..... Value decrease = payment decrease WTF???
the word "since" has more than one meaning, Arnold.Quote:
Originally Posted by yonskion
Oh "since" means you sold your house and bought a new one at a lower price
Actually, its the buyers driving up the prices. Its a brutal bidding war out in my area. The stock isnt what it was a year ago, so the first time buyers and the investors are fighting over houses that come on the market now. I've got a couple friends at work that have all but given up. they keep getting out bid on houses.Quote:
I've heard from a few other agents that some Sellers are thinking the market "has turned" and actually starting to raise listing prices. I'm only guessing, but assume it HAS to be based on the media crap about "average/median sales prices rising 5 straight months", etc.
Haven't seen anything exactly similar here... though admittedly I'm not involved in the very low end of our market... which would be sub $100,000. And I don't doubt that especially in areas like yours, this process is normal and a true "market force"... but do worry because it was those exact same forces that drove the market up each of the times over the last decades to build the bubble that then broke spectacularly. I guess I'm saying that just because it's somehow "normal", doesn't mean that it isn't at risk to a further correction... either sooner or later.Quote:
Originally Posted by cramer
Houses ain't exactly moving here either. But you sure as hell can't get anything for $134,000, let alone $34,000.
Hey, I was doing the dishes just now and thinking about this more. (Is that too domesticated for a sometimes testosterone-filled place like this? I could change it to say "...I was just mounting my lady and thinking about this more..." or "...was just installing new exhaust headers on my Harley and thinking about this more..." instead?)Quote:
Originally Posted by cramer
Is there any chance that almost all of these properties getting "bidding wars" are foreclosures or other REO stuff?
Because if so... I think there is a very good chance that what you are observing is LESS prices being bid up in a trend of segment wide value increases, and MORE a modified MLS auction technique to clear REO inventory quickly???
I've only seen it used a few times in my neck of the woods, but heard more in the media about it used a lot elsewhere with much higher inventory of foreclosures etc. Here's how it works;
UNLIKE the more traditional listing the property in MLS at 105% of what you think the current market value of property is, then waiting for several weeks to see if anyone steps up to write an offer that leads to counters etc. Then if not making a 5% reduction in list price and waiting again... then if no offers doing it yet again... and then again etc.
YOU INSTEAD list the property in MLS at 50% or 75% of what you think the current market value of property is, then announce you won't consider offers for X number of days (let's say 5?). What happens is everyone from rehabbers to typical buyers see this incredibly cheap deal, go take a look at it, and a hudge percent end up preparing offers on it. By the time 5 days has passed, the Bank/REO owner has a dozen offers in hand... from just full price, to 20 or 40 percent over list price. The Seller can then pick highest or otherwise best offer and proceed quickly to a closing.
This technique gets the Bank/REO a big chunk of the full value of property, with just about zero extra holding costs (interest/loss of use of money/maintenance/insurances/utilities/etc).
If there are enough distressed properties in that market, and enough of the Banks/REOs use this technique, I could also see it be MISPERCEIVED by the public as a "market frenzy" with prices being bid way up. Even though by definition in my example, the properties may only selling at 90 or 95 of current "market" value.
Again, curious if your exposure to that phenomena in your area has involved mostly foreclosure/REO properties???
Most REO listings here require the listing agent to hold all offers for the first 72 hours. During that time quite a few offers can stack up. In the past there would always be a multiple offer addendum sent out after the 72 hours and it was up to you to bring your "highest and best" offer at that time.
Lately anything we've bid on has had a number of bids in that 72 hour window, but the banks have been accepting our offers over others on probably the 5 last deals. I write strong offers. All cash. Close in 10 days. The only contingency is the inspection. We only ask for 5 days to inspect. We haven't been bidding up prices at all. One went $100 higher. One went at asking price. The rest had slight reductions.
ya they are all reo's out here or short sales. but the reo's are the ones going for 30K+ over listing. no idea on your theory. When i bought my house, it appraised for exactly what i bought it at. The comparables out here are selling for 10-15K more and its only been a year since i bought. So i would think the price of my would have dropped 10K not went up. But who knows.Quote:
Originally Posted by mock vomit
OK, here are some pics (post remodel) of that 34K house. I got 1K back as my commission check and sank probably 10K on the remodel. I think I'll list around $88,500. Ogden is really undervalued IMHO. Normally I buy and hold, but given the 4 mortgage rule I'm going to flip a few houses this year to generate funds for more rentals. 25 minutes from awesome skiing.
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818670
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818670
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818670
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818670
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818670
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818726
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818726
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818726
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818726
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262818726
damn md9. put that thing in denver at double the price and we got a deal!
Really? $44k invested? What's the hood like?
You have great taste. That would rent for 1800 in my neighborhood.
What's your point? How old are you? Have you ever lived with a woman who split your costs? Or, a man? It's real fucking simple. Your expenses are halved in a situation like that, if we assume both are working and making similar incomes. Of course there are single income households around here that double my gross, but, statistically, they are few. Most of the upper tier of the middle class are DINKS, I'm pretty sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by khakis
Did your parents explain this to you? Go upstairs and ask them.
as always, looks nice. can we see the before pictures?Quote:
Originally Posted by meatdrink9
Tips^up, that's exactly why I've been holding everything. My zipcode is undervalued. The skiing is way better too.
Joe, yep, but this deal is a little atypical. I really scored on the purchase and being able to refinish the flooring/molding that was already there. The hood isn't that bad. The area I'm buying in is the largest historic district in the country (old railroad boom money, some insane mansions). The bones in these homes are generally pretty awesome unless they had a bad remodel along the way. There are plenty of crazies in the area, but I've seen the city improve a ton in the 3 years I've been investing here. I'd say 10-20K more is probably more realistic. This is cheapest home I've bought. I did score a 5 bed, 2 bath, 2 kitchen, 2 car garage place for 44K once, but remodeling it took me up to 70K. It was beat.
Benny, thanks. Remember I come from a design background. All of my places are pretty pimp. No carpet, linoleum or formica in any of them. Stone counters, hardwood and stainless appliances are minimums.
Grapedrink, I don't shoot before photos (just go right to work, could also be incriminating as sometimes people want you to pull a permit for something as trivial as trading out a light fixture), but here's the old MLS photo:
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1262831707
J you should learn how to do glass reinforced concrete. Probably cost the same as those granite tiles and way mo pimp.
Benny I'm 30 and a year and a half into my first house. My wife has a job too, and another house (that's 2 mortgages and two incomes, since I know you're counting). We don't have kids yet but we do have 2 little dogs. I work with people who have much more expensive houses/cars/bikes for various reasons including previous investments, generous parents, spouses with higher-paying jobs, more debt, etc and that's cool. I spend within my comfort zone and they do the same. It really doesn't affect me that they are living in houses I can't afford.
You are 100% correct sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by mock vomit
Wow, got scared for a second and then realized that it was an old message **phew**
Not residential... but still real estate;
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYTimes.com
yeah, commercial vs. residential. Two windows into contemporary capitalism. The commercial guys are proceeding as they should, people being polite in court, matters settled, well, maybe some asshole lawyers getting spunky, but, still, it's all a matter of, um, law. I was telling an old friend who lives in Stuyvesant Town that, whatever happens over the next five years, in the end, you'll have professionals figuring it out.
But, residential, jezuz, there's no hope in sight if Barney Frank wants me to buy something for 800,000 with 3.5 down.
We're going to pay for busted CRE too. That deal has already been cut.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
http://www.mybudget360.com/the-doctr...ill-be-paying/
Jezuz, you're a downer, dude. But, I'm not surprised if that happens. I read a post today in some forum that predicted the future at 2020, where we will finally become a banana like republic in maybe ten, but probably fifteen years where the best jobs will be protecting the wealth of the top one percent. If you think of it, that's why the military has been a career move for the lower middle class for a decade, and will blossom to upper management positions soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
Commercial Real Estate is being hit HARD. The super smart mega investors who were loaned billions to buy skyscrapers lost the gamble. Downtown SF is full of vacancies, Silicon Valley has a glut of an early 80s R&D buildings that nobody want to rent or buy. Its worse in the South Bay because office space is spread out over a huge area....from Palo Alto over to South San Jose....its not centralized like a proper downtown.
Since the summer, I've seen stories about this topic...
Like this:
http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2...oing_back.html
with companies shifting around for better deals on better space:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2009/12/21/story7.html?b=1261371600^2613141
I read this article today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...et-revels.html
The labor force contracted by 661,000. This did not show up in the headline jobless rate because so many Americans dropped out of the system. The broad U6 category of unemployment rose to 17.3pc. That is the one that matters.
Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps a further exhibit of market infantilism.
The home foreclosure guillotine usually drops a year or so after people lose their job, and exhaust their savings. The local sheriff will escort them out of the door, often with some sympathy –– just like the police in 1932, mostly Irish Catholics who tithed 1pc of their pay for soup kitchens.
Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.
Judges are finding ways to block evictions. One magistrate in Minnesota halted a case calling the creditor "harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive". We are not far from a de facto moratorium in some areas.
This is how it ended between 1932 and 1934, when half the US states declared moratoria or "Farm Holidays". Such flexibility inoculated America's democracy against the appeal of Red Unions and Coughlin Fascists. The home seizures are occurring despite frantic efforts by the Obama administration to delay the process.
This policy is entirely justified given the scale of the social crisis. But it also masks the continued rot in the housing market, allows lenders to hide losses, and stores up an ever larger overhang of unsold properties. It takes heroic naivety to think the US housing market has turned the corner (apologies to Goldman Sachs, as always). The fuse has yet to detonate on the next mortgage bomb, $134bn (£83bn) of "option ARM" contracts due to reset violently upwards this year and next.
Like I've been saying for months..Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
High unemployment in a low interest rate, steep yield curve, and low inflation environment is bullish for equity. Companies can use the economy as an excuse to downsize and then apply technology to improve productivity. It doesn't have much to do with Fed policy right now. Look at IBM making a 20 year high..
Dwntwn Seattle is going through similar CRE issues. I downsized our office after layoffs. The CRE rep for the bldg made a hard play to keep me in the bldg, that I'd been in for 10 years. 50% off, smaller space for even less. Basically went back to rent rates I was paying back in 2000.Quote:
Originally Posted by skier666
I can't find the article (apparently I forgot to bookmark it) but there was a great blog entry by some tech industry guy entitled basically "Who needs the middle class?" If anyone comes up with it, let me know (I've tried.)Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
He made the point that increasing productivity through technology simply means less people are necessary to do the same work -- and until you hit a post-scarcity level of technology, you're going to have more and more unemployment, because unemployed people don't have money to buy things and drive an economy that can support a middle class.
Seriously: what does the labor force do with millions of sociology and English and psychology and history majors? We don't need buildings full of middle management anymore, and the companies that figure out how to do without them undercut those that don't. They're ending up in call centers and service jobs...I know people who used to be graphic designers that can't get a job as a friggin' barista. That is no longer middle-class.
Yep, destruction of the middle class. Thank you supply side economics. Trickle Down indeed...Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
Cash for Caulkers! Seriously, I think it's a good idea. As is, fixing our roads, staffing our parks, repairing our bridges, etc.