Real Estate Crash thread

Walk to lifts? That's the definition of High Cost of Living. I would expect that to seem really expensive.

I'm not sure what that last sentence means. In the first years of a mortgage the am is almost all interest. And real cash flow is usually more like monthly expenses + 15% to account for vacancy and maintenance/unexpected costs.

Doubling down on mountain real estate with objectively high prices, political/economic uncertainty and somewhat high interest rates seems crazy talk. Your downside risk is extreme. If the rental stops cashflowing, you are a little fucked. Your home equity is already committed. Most likely, you are either underwater or negative equity on the rental so selling would be painful. And you gotta keep it all rolling so you have a roof over your head.

Generally speaking, that is How Not to Be a Landlord 101. Primary Residence as Collateral, No Geographic Diversification, Minimal Sweat Equity Opportunity due to HOA/Condo and so on. And the financing mechanism is questionable from an underwriting perspective.

In order to get the foot of your neck you either need prices to go up further or cashflow relief from a refi. And over there in the Peoples Republic of Summit County, just expect that your competition is the government. The price to build and carrying cost of all this subsidized housing is insane. If rents or prices trend down, the taxpayers and rental/sales market will get crushed. Go look back at transactions of deed restricted units in 08 and extrapolate that out to now.

If you have money burning a hole in your pocket (which it sounds like you don't) and you want to be a landlord, look at low cost of living areas with strong rental demand. Think College and Company Towns.

Yeah, what Foggy said. HOAs are crazy high due to insurance costs skyrocketing. Interest rates are high. RE prices are still inflated. Just not a good time to buy and be a landlord. Unless you can pay cash for a unit w/ a reasonable HOA, like Dillon Valley and be a slumlord. That might slightly be more viable. I expect sales to jump this spring, more inventory, more opportunities, maybe prices will go down a little, maybe interest rates will go down a little. But the economy is also looking unstable, which can affect things up here to a degree, usually less than other places though. I'm planning on waiting this out and stockpiling savings for a better time to buy.

I looked into long term renting my house and taking out heloc for 400k to buy a sxs party my brains out and maybe have some money left over to buy a house in a LCOL area

I'd actually break even with like 200 bucks a month extra but that 400k would be 2,500 a month payment nope just going to sell out instead


as foggy said the peoples republic of summit breckenridge is busy price fixing rentals


now the town wants to spend 50 million on a new housing development for what I don't get it anymore affordable housing was understandable but now they can't help themselves

summit I wouldn't do it unless you are paying pre 2015 pricesmotivated seller means all kinds of bullshit in realtor speakyour aim is pre 2015

Thanks for confirming my apprehension and aversion folks. Even in 2022 before interest rates went up up I looked at "how do I lever the house to buy a 2br/1ba, move out of my house, and rent my house?" And the numbers never added up to where it looked worth it in terms of the profit vs tradeoff. The pseudo-curse (in terms of a default move is no action) of a <3% mortgage with a lot of equity in the current price/cost/interest/political environment, as was pointed out.

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Originally Posted by summit

Thanks for confirming my apprehension and aversion folks. Even in 2022 before interest rates went up up I looked at &quot;how do I lever the house to buy a 2br/1ba, move out of my house, and rent my house?&quot; And the numbers never added up to where it looked worth it in terms of the profit vs tradeoff. The pseudo-curse (in terms of a default move is no action) of a <3% mortgage with a lot of equity in the current price/cost/interest/political environment, as was pointed out.

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Have you thought about renting your place out, and then renting that 2bd/1ba? Its one less house to worry about shit going wrong, and your cost of living is fixed each year no matter what appliance or part of the house breaks. Youd still be gaining equity from your tenant paying your mortgage, and you would have the freedumb to move to a different town as you see fit instead of being locked into an area you can afford but dont love.

A good point... Well I didn't make the move for the 2/1 when rates were 4%. I just have 1 property, m house. I'd have to see what I could lever into now, a ski country studio or 1/1 yes. 2/1 maybe. And I still do love it here as much as I fantasize about year round biking and fewer crowds.

^^^ again, the nice thing about renting is you can always move back into your house, or move towns/states/countrys if you dont like your living situation after a year. There is a ton of flexibility to being a renter, vs buying somewhere and being locked in. It would allow you to continue to save money/build equity in your current home, while you wait for more favorable conditions to buy that second home too. The only real downside is moving is a PITA, and the possible opportunity cost of not buying... which you don&#39;t seem to think will be profitable at this time anyways.

Ah I understand your point much better now. Thank you for explaining. It is a good argument.

Moving is hard. Finding a rental is hard around here. I could probably do it. Having a pet makes it harder. Maybe if the lady wants to move in somewhere, otherwise I have little free time.

leveraging your home to buy another place even if the numbers look good on paper

just sounds like a bad idea my head in the sand advice is to have little to no debt in the coming year or two

1 mortgage thats it as easy as it seems to want to take all that equity sitting there and do something big with it


I just remember 2001 and 2008 too well

I worked with a guy at IBM in Vangroovy so he obviously was doing ok financially he was pretty smart and pretty handy so he rented out the 2 houses he owned and he payed rent for the house he was living in, I didnt ask but I think it was some kind of group thing possibly with people from his church if he was still alive ( an over eater ) by now he will be worth many millions

Got a nice Ketchum condo for sale. 2 bed 2 bath, view of Baldy. $1.15M special for you today. Tax assessor calling it $1.25.

I'm watching for the boat market to crash. If things get bad, that'll go first.