Real Estate Crash thread

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

I don't think Teton Valley has a problem affording better schools, the community just doesn't want to spend the money there. I find it hard to fault the realtors for a bunch of dinks (with interesting bedfellows in the Mormons - who continue to control the school board) not giving a shit about the kids.

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move to summit county we have 195 million dollar bond vote in november for upgraded schools with declining enrollment on top of the tax windfall they got two years ago when property values shot up
not interested the education system failed me and continues to fail many doesn't matter how much money you throw at it

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Originally Posted by neckdeep

Fred, you're a fucking moron. Take your self satisfied thumb out of your ass and look around.

It's not just about "oh, poor me, I can't afford to move to Fred's ski house neighborhood and watch him goof off on his family's money".

Mountain town living isnt for everyone? Well, that apparently includes everyone who has kids in school. Thanks to dirt pimpin greed heads and their warped "progress", we can only afford teachers for four days a week. Our kids are falling behind. I guess you'd say it's their parents fault, for being so foolish as to think you could own a home and simply be middle class in the mountains.

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LOL
I'm here for a good time man
got super lucky took some risks my living expenses are little to nothing but I don't have kids not married and keep pretty low key
although a bike I don't need is on sale

everyone wants to live in a ski town of course it's a want not a need you sacrifice lots of shit to make it happen or you pack up and go back to iowa
the churn is part of the deal

not everyone can walk downtown getting shitty at happy hour and walk home and walk to the lift in the morning

Wait, I could live somewhere else for cheaper than summit county?

I have always wondered what life would look like if I was unable to enjoy the outdoors. Maybe if I was like a gamer guy who never left the house and just sat around with Mountain Dew and hot pockets in some super cheap but very nice house in the midwest, screaming at a headset and gawking at a massive monitor for days on end. If I am ever incapacitated by some kind of devastating injury, then you'll know where to find me, wasting away in my own air conditioned paradise with Cheetos colored fingers far from the beautiful scenery that I've become desensitized to over the last 30 year. No tourists to deal with, no overpriced restaurants, lots of cheap tacos, and the bright green sugary energy drinks flow from a fountain like the salmon of Capistrano. Might not be so bad really.

you ^^ didn't mention anything about having to wear the diaper ?

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Originally Posted by Name Redacted

Wait, I could live somewhere else for cheaper than summit county?

I have always wondered what life would look like if I was unable to enjoy the outdoors. Maybe if I was like a gamer guy who never left the house and just sat around with Mountain Dew and hot pockets in some super cheap but very nice house in the midwest, screaming at a headset and gawking at a massive monitor for days on end. If I am ever incapacitated by some kind of devastating injury, then you'll know where to find me, wasting away in my own air conditioned paradise with Cheetos colored fingers far from the beautiful scenery that I've become desensitized to over the last 30 year. No tourists to deal with, no overpriced restaurants, lots of cheap tacos, and the bright green sugary energy drinks flow from a fountain like the salmon of Capistrano. Might not be so bad really.

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FWIW, you still can enjoy the outdoors…just different parts of it. Those Duck Dynasty people seem to enjoy the hell out of their cheap shitty swamp land.

Lots of good rock climbing and hiking in KY and WV where land is dirt cheap. Live on the outskirts of Lexington or nearby towns and climb the red almost year round from a super nice $400k house. Surprised there isn’t more MTB trail building in that area too…

Wisconsin has tiny ski hills, but it’s a state full of outdoors lovers and is generally pretty affordable.

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Originally Posted by singlesline

FWIW, you still can enjoy the outdoors…just different parts of it. Those Duck Dynasty people seem to enjoy the hell out of their cheap shitty swamp land.

Lots of good rock climbing and hiking in KY and WV where land is dirt cheap. Live on the outskirts of Lexington or nearby towns and climb the red almost year round from a super nice $400k house. Surprised there isn’t more MTB trail building in that area too…

Wisconsin has tiny ski hills, but it’s a state full of outdoors lovers and is generally pretty affordable.

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Cant climb anymore. Too broken, arthritis etc. shit, that might put a damper on my gaming plan. Not a fan of the SE anyway. I grew up there.

I think UT could work. Ogden area is cheap AF compared to CO.

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Originally Posted by summit

That is a completely wrong hot take on the Dillon situation.

You think that is about density? This ain't about a 6 story workforce housing apartment my guy. It's about the Sotherby's customer crowd... or rather Slifer Smith & Frampton, who will sell the units and has one of their dirt pimps on the Dillon town council voting in favor of this thing rather than recusing. That is the same town council that voted to ignore their attorney on a first ammendment issue, by playing favorites with a local church whose members were on town council, forcing the attorney to resign and the council to be unable to meet before reversing themselves.

The developer wants to build a Branded Residence luxury complex and has said "Give me a zoning variance to build fewer bigger taller fancier expensivo units or I'll just build a larger number of units in the same space while following height requirements."

He is threatening to build it denser unless he can build taller but fewer luxury units.

I got no dogs in that trainwreck, but it is hilarious to watch. Dillon needs to figure out what it wants to be when it grows up. So now you have Dillon's mayor's husband leading the voter initiative to overturn the development approval!

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https://www.summitdaily.com/news/dil...n-development/

63% of the voters opposed the Dillon branded residences development plan with its code variances.

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Originally Posted by singlesline

FWIW, you still can enjoy the outdoors…just different parts of it. Those Duck Dynasty people seem to enjoy the hell out of their cheap shitty swamp land.

Lots of good rock climbing and hiking in KY and WV where land is dirt cheap. Live on the outskirts of Lexington or nearby towns and climb the red almost year round from a super nice $400k house. Surprised there isn’t more MTB trail building in that area too…

Wisconsin has tiny ski hills, but it’s a state full of outdoors lovers and is generally pretty affordable.

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I have family in Madison, WI. Great college town and vibe. Told the misses that it would be a great place to retire. Good hospitals with UofW right there. Decent mtb. trails (more gravel bike) nearby but obvioulsy not much in the way of actual mountains.

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Originally Posted by summit

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/dil...n-development/

63% of the voters opposed the Dillon branded residences development plan with its code variances.

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Typical Dillon. No one is surprised on that one. That developer is a little too ambitious for a town that has alway been behind the times. He wants to redevelop like half the town. I don't think I blame the voters really.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

I have family in Madison, WI. Great college town and vibe. Told the misses that it would be a great place to retire. Good hospitals with UofW right there. Decent mtb. trails (more gravel bike) nearby but obvioulsy not much in the way of actual mountains.

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Yeah, Madison is a fun town. Just big enough that you can escape the college. We have good friends that live there and it wouldn't be a bad spot to end up.

Some sailboat racing in the summer and access to lots of iceboat racing venues in the winter--and more and more people out snow kiting on skis. Devil's lake state park is nice climbing/hiking area. Several small ski hills nearby.

Functional sized airport, and it is a 2-hour drive to O'hare for access to lower fares or direct flights pretty much everywhere.

Upper Roaring Fork Valley is now $3000/Sq/Ft new construction and $1500-2000 remodeling.

New construction in Snowmass Base Village is selling well, with lots of South Americans. Older homes with
Wood Shake roofs aren't moving and can't get insurance.

Very interesting... https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...rices-00183126

The nation’s housing affordability crisis has become so acute that even our presidential candidates are paying attention to it. Former President Donald Trump blames immigrants for driving up prices and vows he will reduce demand by banning mortgages for “illegal immigrants” and deporting them. For her part, Vice President Kamala Harris promises to increase supply by building 3 million new homes.

But the number of? housing units in the nation has grown faster than the number of?households since the turn of the century. Something else is happening here. It is not just a supply problem. And it is not just a demand problem caused by an increase in households, whether they are immigrants or not.

Outside of they make some pretty large leaps in terms of assumptions, ala their 100 billion just in NYC alone right out of the gate, isn't FIRPTA supposed to be mechanism to combat this? Foreign entities have a significant additional tax whenever they go to sell.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

isn't FIRPTA supposed to be mechanism to combat this? Foreign entities have a significant additional tax whenever they go to sell.

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Reading this article, I see no additional taxes. Sure, there is the 15% withholding at time of sale, but that applies to any taxes due at time of filing, not additionally. Further more, the high end stuff is bought by LLC's, shell companies, whatever with the purposes of sheltering stolen assets. If they get to keep 60 cents on the dollar at time of sale, that is fantastic, as now the money is laundered.
https://www.guardianlife.com/individ...ital-gains-tax

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Very interesting... https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...rices-00183126

The nation’s housing affordability crisis has become so acute that even our presidential candidates are paying attention to it. Former President Donald Trump blames immigrants for driving up prices and vows he will reduce demand by banning mortgages for “illegal immigrants” and deporting them. For her part, Vice President Kamala Harris promises to increase supply by building 3 million new homes.

But the number of? housing units in the nation has grown faster than the number of?households since the turn of the century. Something else is happening here. It is not just a supply problem. And it is not just a demand problem caused by an increase in households, whether they are immigrants or not.

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Household formations have exceeded housing starts in the last 10+ years by about 2.3 million units

Attachment 502084
https://www.realtor.com/research/us-...ap-march-2023/

It’s a helluva lot more if you go back to the start of the GFC.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

But the number of? housing units in the nation has grown faster than the number of?households since the turn of the century. Something else is happening here. It is not just a supply problem. And it is not just a demand problem caused by an increase in households, whether they are immigrants or not.

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Migration trends?

There are plenty of houses random cities with limited appeal or employment prospects. Even more homes in completely derelict dead old coal towns and similar.

But there aren't enough houses (or enough new houses being built) in the places people people actually want to be or that have good jobs, schools, or future prospects.

Personally I think some of the solution is convincing more people to move. There are people who live in spots that are clearly non-optimal for their desired lifestyle. 100 years ago their great grandparents would have been saying goodbye to family and friends and hopping on a train to opportunity....but today everybody wants to stay put even though we have facetime, cars, and cheap flights so you don't even have to wave goodbye to everyone you know forever.

We're at like record low levels of people moving for work. The only group that still moves for work at higher rates are the high earners--if you go out of state to a nice college and then and get a fancy tech, finance, biglaw, etc. job, you take the job and you move. Doesn't matter if you grew up in Columbus, Ohio...you're going to NY or SF, and then maybe when you tire of that lifestyle you take a corporate gig in Minneapolis or Houston

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Originally Posted by singlesline

Personally I think some of the solution is convincing more people to move.

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Without universal healthcare that risk is untenable

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Without universal healthcare that risk is untenable

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I guess I don't follow? (not that I don't agree that healthcare is a problem)

If you have employer healthcare now...you can get a job before moving. You can also move and then rely on being able to backdate COBRA if anything happens before you get a new job.

If you are on a subsidized ACA plan, you can be on one wherever you move to (although that might make some states less appealing).

If you don't have healthcare now...well you still won't wherever you move. But maybe you'll be able to get healthcare because either your income goes up or your housing costs go way down.

I'm not going to pretend that packing your life up and moving across the country doesn't come with risks, but if your destination is chosen based on some combination of affordability and opportunity, then the odds are in your favor.

COBRA is a scam. It’s full price insurance.

You are right in a sense but by your own logic healthcare is a primary decision before you move. Just think if that weren’t part of the decision process.

I'm guessing there is some semantic between "moving for work" and "moving because your career/financial future is geographically mobile". At least that's my read on the increasing population of an cost of the beach, mountains, lake's etc.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

COBRA is a scam. It’s full price insurance.

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Perhaps. When my wife retired from teaching I was offered the districts Cobra plan and it was the best deal I could find for the coverage offered. So yeah, maybe it was full price but it was still the best I could get.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Without universal healthcare that risk is untenable

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this is very overlooked
I can't imagine having kids and being locked into a job simply because of the health care plan
I bet it is pretty common these days

my guess is
50% of the population has employer covered health ins. corporations love this because they have you by the balls
30% of the population is on Medicare medicade of some sort
20% of the population is self insured

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Originally Posted by fastfred

this is very overlooked
I can't imagine having kids and being locked into a job simply because of the health care plan
I bet it is pretty common these days

my guess is
50% of the population has employer covered health ins. corporations love this because they have you by the balls
30% of the population is on Medicare medicade of some sort
20% of the population is self insured

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Wouldn't most companies rather not have the enormous expense of providing health insurance?

I think most would.

I can't figure out why more people don't realize the personal freedom that universal healthcare would bring.

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Wouldn't most companies rather not have the enormous expense of providing health insurance?

I think most would.

I can't figure out why more people don't realize the personal freedom that universal healthcare would bring.

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Yes and no. I don't know shit about how premiums in group plans are set but the perceived benefit to the employee is large. And governments. Frequently (County and State in Colorado) the value of the family benefits are insane. Grand County something like no charge to the employee and $+/-300 for unlimited family members. So you get an unhealthy work pool with large families. As in literaly that is the reason to work there. $45k a year, 32hrs. a week, 5 weeks off plus holidays, close to unlimited sick that can be used for family illness and self diagnosed mental health reasons, 4day work week and so on. Basically, when compare to many people work, its a part time job with amazing benefits.

And yes, it does relate to real estate IMO.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

Yes and no. I don't know shit about how premiums in group plans are set but the perceived benefit to the employee is large. And governments. Frequently (County and State in Colorado) the value of the family benefits are insane. Grand County something like no charge to the employee and $+/-300 for unlimited family members. So you get an unhealthy work pool with large families. As in literaly that is the reason to work there. $45k a year, 32hrs. a week, 5 weeks off plus holidays, close to unlimited sick that can be used for family illness and self diagnosed mental health reasons, 4day work week and so on. Basically, when compare to many people work, its a part time job with amazing benefits.

And yes, it does relate to real estate IMO.

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Universal healthcare would also help address this sort of nonsense.