Classy bro. I was just saying it was windy. Nothing more. Nothing less.
A glass of red with dinner here and there. I dislike things. I try not to hate. You doing OK?
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Classy bro. I was just saying it was windy. Nothing more. Nothing less.
A glass of red with dinner here and there. I dislike things. I try not to hate. You doing OK?
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You're right as far as Montana goes. Livingston is the windiest city.
https://www.greatfallstribune.com/st...pect/92459142/
I hate everyone.
Not sure why this is even up for debate, but everybody ELSE here is right. Park County gets windy AF. I used to work in Eastern MT and ND. Yes, it gets windy as shit out there too, BUT on that stretch of I-90 between Livingston and Big Timber is where I've seen the most wind-flipped semis of any place I've driven. I've driven that route thousands of times and I can't tell you how many times I'd see a trailer or U-haul on its side. Bad enough that they have a sign by Livingston indicating when trucks need to pull off the main interstate and take the detour. You know not what you speak of on this one. The crosswinds there are next-level fierce.
Yup! That should settle it for the non-believer here.
Required viewing for dumbfree here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9vdyM0m9uo
I've pulled over and just sat there in that zone. Flag was about to rip off the pole.
Lost out on yet another house, offered full price, no concessions. Getting old.
We've been reviewing this at work in the context of WUI
https://firststreet.org/research-lab...surance-issue/
Insurance rates are getting crazy to unobtainable in certain areas.
Browning will be on their list within 5 years.
Fact.
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It's also construction/rebuild costs are through the roof.
LMAO. Yup! Once they catch wind of it, rich Bay Area ex-pats will flock there like the salmon of Capistrano. Further screwing over the Blackfeet as Browning gets gentrified with mustachioed hipsters riding fixies whilst sipping on craft triple IPAs and housing prices go to the moon there too.
https://j.gifs.com/y0X6aB.gif
Before I moved to Montana a buddy I worked with in PC said is was, "a dry and windy land full of dust and bugs". He lived in Butte 1/2 the year and now lives full time near Hamilton. That was in 91.
It grows on ya.
I was living and working on a ranch west of Choteau when I saw my first honest to god ground blizzard. I was snowed in and couldn't get to the jobsite and just sat there looking out the window at the snow drifts marching by like waves on the ocean. From ground level up about 10 feet it was horizontal white out snow, above that it was clear as could be. Damnest thing I ever saw.
As for the Wyoming wind sock, up at the main ranch house one of those stupid rain chains got ripped off its tie down during another wind storm and proceeded to take all the stone veneer off the side of the house within its reach. Ranch hand said it looked like a bullwhip. The anemometer they had at the house stopped working when it hit 120 mph. Replacing shingles and fixing roofs was a full time job out there.
I though this was good food for thought. I had no idea about the credibility of the presenters. The question for me is not much equity do the STRs owners that can't cash flow have? Are a large percentage of STRs using projected rental income to qualify for financing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpMKycdadwo
A lot of people are going private markets to get financing (at least the people I know in the game), so at least some were definitely using projections.
That is what I thought. So theoretically, if your STR stops cash flowing, you have other income streams, cash or access to equity to cover the mortgage? That podcast basics said that millennials are 60% of the gross demand for AirBnBs and that general inflation and student loans being payable is crimping their YOLO lifestyle.
I think this whole idea of "banks don't do liar loans post GFC so we won't have a rush of foreclosures" might be tested. On the local side, I think that plenty of people want to sell there second home because they perceive to peak as being in the rear view. They are not constrained by current mortgage rates because they don't have to buy another house. On the macro side, I think the fed and big money/politics/ruling class/machine will continue to have no fucks given for most of us.
In a time of unprecedented wealth inequality, I find is very telling that the suits can talk about wage growth like its a bad thing with a straight face. There is just a lot going on.
For sure the traditional metrics are distorted by the "Cash isn't really cash" thing. But as long as the risk doesn't sit with the tax payer, that's probably a good thing. I think the whole idea of housing costs coming back to earth is a least somewhat reliant on the pain landing in the "right" place. Wiping out equity incrementally and allowing the market to reprice downward seems like a better concept than tossing the keys back to the bank.
Disclaimer - I know nothing
Obviously there’s reason to be skeptical that they’re being responsible, but plain Jane mortgage backed securities weren’t the issue last time.
It’s that they sliced and diced them to obscure the risk - selling ‘low risk’ tranches of pools made entirely of high risk mortgages.
Oh, and then they started selling ‘synthetic CDOs’, which weren’t backed by any actual mortgages, but were just bets on how the mortgages other people owned were going to perform. So just leveraging the bets.
https://www.boston.com/news/the-bost...1=hp_secondary
On the one hand, I hate Portnoy.
On the other, I love how much this likely infuriates the average blue blood Nantucket homeowner.
My opinion is that, while JBD is correct. The "low risk" part is a bit more complicated. All the sharps, talking heads, bank and broker dealers knew the collateral was dog shit.
The rating agencies went along for the ride to delay the inevitable.
So who's blowing smoke up who's backside and what isn't exactly as it seems? I'm not sure what the CMBS and RMBS guys are saying right now.
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I have lived adjacent to some exceptionally wealthy areas and typically do not bat an eye at $7mil homes on 1/4acre with no view. Even i am having trouble making sense of how this house on 1.2 acres could be $42mil.
Attachment 471359
From what I understood at the time, they mostly knew the collateral was shit, but the way it was structured was supposed to create some ‘low risk’ and some ‘high risk’ securities from the shit. The ratings agencies went along with the math, cause they wanted business.
But did the buyers of the low risk securities know that they were actually shit? I think a lot of them just relied on the ratings.
But another confounding issue was that the banks issuing these shit securities held onto a bunch of them themselves.
My reaction as well. Its shit like this why a certain type of person fucking loves the guy.
I did love his recent call out of the writer who was putting out a hit piece and tried to strong arm his advertisers, like they didn't already know exactly what they were getting in the first place.
https://www.denverpost.com/2023/10/0...d-westminster/
“Wouldn’t it be better to revitalize existing space in the city rather than taking pristine farmland to put in commercial space we can’t fill now?” Ray said. “It’s a treasure to have a working farm in an urban area — if they allow this to happen, this will be another faceless suburb with a view of nothing.”
the karens nimbys and boomers have been hard at work but in the end they lost
I just want this housing market to burn soooo bad.