Real Estate Crash thread

‘Note that by this index, during the early ‘80s, homes were very unaffordable due to the very high mortgage rates. During the housing bubble, houses were also less affordable using 30-year mortgage rates, however, during the bubble, there were many “affordability products” that allowed borrowers to be qualified at the teaser rate (usually around 1%) that made houses seem more affordable.

In general, this would suggest houses are the least affordable since the housing bubble. And excluding the bubble - with all the “affordability products” - this is the worst affordability since 1995.’

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https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ratio.html?m=1

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Originally Posted by byates1

I'm chairman and director of the matt Foley foundation, so yes

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Respect

https://youtu.be/0wNsAMpJjug

25 years ago? Wtf.
Guys appreciate better than real estate

I saw Chris partying at the Tippler, the night before he expired. He didn’t look healthy.

Did he ever look healthy?

Random useless information: Bob Odenkirk wrote that sketch.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

I heard the term but never really paid attention to what "a Vancover special " was, but according to this artical I live in one built in 77, even tho its not in Vancover, even tho the foundation is 3ft deep, it doesnt really feel like a basement,

if you drive around Vancover you see thousands of these ... 10,000 actualy

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...cial-1.6434818

"Its key feature is a low-pitched roof, which, compared to steeper roofs, required fewer materials — and was therefore cheaper to build.

But the Vancouver Special wasn't just cheap: its first floor also exploited a loophole, allowing it to be larger than other homes.

In the 1960s, if you wanted to construct a house, there were limitations to how much square footage the first floor could occupy.

But basements were not included in that calculation, and Cudney took advantage of this by building his first floor 18 inches below the ground — just enough for it to qualify as a 'basement.' "


lots of my people in Vancover, the Vancover special was perfect to park the aging parents until they kick off,
then you make basement suite

No surprise that residential RE is taking a breather with the rise in mortgage rates;

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Home sellers and buyers are retreating at similar rates, resulting in a housing market that remains very competitive even as it slows.
The typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment shot up 39%, the largest year-over-year gain on record as the average 30-year-fixed rate hovered at a 12-year high of 5.1%. Redfin’s data on homebuyer mortgage payments is based on asking-price data going back to 2015.

“Rising mortgage rates are taking a bite out of pending sales as both buyers and sellers take a step back from the turbulent market,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “It seems as though the ratio of buyers to sellers remains mostly the same, which is why we have yet to see a substantial drop in bidding wars or the share of homes selling quickly. It’s still early days though when it comes to 5% mortgage rates. The number of buyers willing to pay such high mortgage payments could evaporate by late summer.”

Pending home sales posted their largest year-over-year decrease since mid-February and mortgage purchase applications fell 17%. On the supply side, new listings fell 4% and the share of listings with price drops rose to its highest level since November.

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:
Fewer people searched for “homes for sale” on Google—searches during the week ending April 23 were down 6% from a year earlier.
The seasonally-adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for home tours and other home-buying services from Redfin agents—was flat year over year during the week ending April 24. It dropped 8% in the past four weeks, compared with a 3% decrease during the same period a year earlier.
Touring activity from the first week of January through April 24 was 19 percentage points behind the same period in 2021, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
Mortgage purchase applications were down 17% from a year earlier, while the seasonally-adjusted index decreased 8% week over week during the week ending April 22.
For the week ending April 28, 30-year mortgage rates hovered at 5.1%. This was down just slightly from 5.11% the prior week—the highest level since April 2010.

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I was afraid that bunny had maybe nuked my favorite thread

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Originally Posted by fastfred

I was afraid that bunny had maybe nuked my favorite thread

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bunny could take away your angry inch of thread?

Lacy and Scott's old place sold for $50k over asking. I can't believe what places are going for in my little shithole of a hometown.

https://www.modbee.com/news/local/article260977167.html

I saw an interesting post on Reddit that reflected housing price increases for about the last 40 years. I was surprised the USA was not in the top 10-15 countries globally with New Zealand taking the prize for the most appreciation. Needless to say, the younger Kiwi's were not happy with the situation.

Found it: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut..._over_40_years

Big houses with less people in them. Lots of houses in rust belt?

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Supply Myth

U.S. Population Per Housing Unit

We probably have the fewest number of people per housing unit in American history.

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR3gp3zU...pg&name=medium

A bunch of houses nationally doesn’t matter if they aren’t where people want to live or where the jobs are. Regional housing shortages are real AFAICT.

I get that counterpoint, but I do think it matters. The feds holding of MBS matters (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB). Prices aren't sustainable in most markets

I often wonder if the TGR prognosticators who sold their homes 3-4 years ago to avoid the inevitable market crash are still around to comment on how that's working for them.

And yet...

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Attachment 415333

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Originally Posted by klauss

I get that counterpoint, but I do think it matters. The feds holding of MBS matters (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB). Prices aren't sustainable in most markets

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I was saying this to myself quite awhile ago and yet line goes up.

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Originally Posted by Bronco

I often wonder if the TGR prognosticators who sold their homes 3-4 years ago to avoid the inevitable market crash are still around to comment on how that's working for them.

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yeah?
I mean no problem buying in clevland or some other undesirable market
but places that people want to live ain't crashing hard enough to buy back in
once you sell you don't get back unless you win the lotto
places like boulder? every tool bag wants to live there

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Originally Posted by oldnew_guy

I was saying this to myself quite awhile ago and yet line goes up.

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Going from under 1 trillion in fed assets in 2008 to about 9 trillion now will cause the line to go up. Things are starting to crack is all I'm saying. Supply will free up without all this manufactured demand

https://www.reuters.com/resizer/mW-q...PG7UFJVXBY.png

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Originally Posted by klauss

Big houses with less people in them. Lots of houses in rust belt?



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR3gp3zU...pg&name=medium

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I wonder what would happen if you remove housing locked up by Airbnb/VRBO and 2nd/3rd/4th homes from this chart?

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Originally Posted by TAFKALVS

I wonder what would happen if you remove housing locked up by Airbnb/VRBO and 2nd/3rd/4th homes from this chart?

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every dirt bag would move to breckenridge

Market still hanging on...friend in Beaverton, OR threw his home on the market 2 weeks ago for $1.5M, got an offer over asking before open house. Closed in less than 2 weeks - all cash...$1.74M (15% over asking).

Perhaps this was the last bagholder to get in?

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Originally Posted by Bronco

I often wonder if the TGR prognosticators who sold their homes 3-4 years ago to avoid the inevitable market crash are still around to comment on how that's working for them.

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I know a few who wished they had jumped into the market 3-4 years ago. But, you never know, they might be right in a year or 2.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

I know a few who wished they had jumped into the market 3-4 years ago. But, you never know, they might be right in a year or 2.

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I think record low mortgage rates helped sustain prices, but now that rates are rapidly rising, I wouldn’t be surprised if prices start coming down in many (most?) markets.