To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

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Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

My kid's at school in Norman there. He said he's about the only student wearing a mask (KN95) in most of his classes. He said most of the professors do. Same thing at his part time job. MURIKA!

Oklahoma's probably the reddest state in the nation.. even literally. They have red dirt there..

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Now THAT'S hilarious you sent your kid to freaking OU of all places. And then act surprised with the lack of masks. That'd be like me sending my kids off to UC Berkeley (lol NOPE) then acting surprised about how librul the place is.

And screw OU football, btw. ;)

Sent from my Pixel 3 using TGR Forums mobile app

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Originally Posted by Mofro261

Delta went away because it does not have a fitness advantage over Omicron. It simply cannot compete with Omicron as well for hosts due to it's increased transmissibility, despite not being quite as replication competent( average CT's 1 log higher for Omicron, 23 vs 20 for Delta). Just like Wu-1 was obliterated by Alpha, and then Alpha completely was wiped off the map by Delta, now Delta bows out to Omicron.

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I look at this from the tree's point of view. A Wu-1 infected individual will infect others at a given rate. Wu-1 will continue to increase prevalence until R changes. Wu-1's R only changes as Wu-1 produces immune resistance, and as behavior (masking, etc), and environment change. Introducing Alpha (or any variant) does not change Wu-1's R immediately. Nor do variants that infect very small proportions of the population "compete" directly. When humans meet, whichever variant is present has a chance to infect. Another variant is very rarely present for any "competition."

So I see the Alpha replacement of Wu-1 as a combination of Alpha's higher R, and the population's NPI efforts. NPI's decreased Wu-1's R below 1, and it went away. Alpha's somewhat higher R was enough to remain above 1 in the face of NPIs, so it remained ("replaced Wu-1").

Same for all the subsequent variants, though immunity from vaccination and infection also comes into play. E.g. in Nov/Dec delta's R appeared to be slightly above 1. Due to holidays, behavior changes were outweighing the slow immunity increase. Omicron comes along with a higher R (2 maybe), and rapidly rises. Delta pokes along for awhile, but both of them and vax together are raising immunity by maybe 0.2-0.4% per day. (That's a bigger percentage of the susceptible population, especially so for delta.) At the same time people become more cautious (omigosh omicron) also making R fall for both.

Anyway, I'm surprised if delta is gone already. I don't think its R could be below 0.5 and is probably higher. At New Years, I'd guess its R was still close to 1. There's just a lot more omicron, so percentage-wise there's a lot less delta.

This seems to support some of that^^

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKuch...43229934661633

Note the common ancestor between alpha and omicron, though: evidently that didn't die out.

Also re: delta reduction: heterogeneity reduces viable hosts that actually meet the virus and 3 shots kills delta.

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Originally Posted by Summit

Peace, Summit

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You do good things, bro.
Don't stop.

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Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Now THAT'S hilarious you sent your kid to freaking OU of all places. And then act surprised with the lack of masks. That'd be like me sending my kids off to UC Berkeley (lol NOPE) then acting surprised about how librul the place is.

And screw OU football, btw. ;)

Sent from my Pixel 3 using TGR Forums mobile app

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I would have been over the moon if my kids got into UC Berkeley AND I could afford out of state tuition. The only problem is that it's not liberal enough.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Guys, this is not Rocket Science, just apply a little common sense for fucks sake :rolleyes2

Attachment 401784

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Also. Let's not forget that the demographics between the 2 groups are not identical.

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Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Now THAT'S hilarious you sent your kid to freaking OU of all places. And then act surprised with the lack of masks. That'd be like me sending my kids off to UC Berkeley (lol NOPE) then acting surprised about how librul the place is.

And screw OU football, btw. ;)

Sent from my Pixel 3 using TGR Forums mobile app

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Who said I was surprised by the lack of masks? Kid's a 3rd generation Sooner. with me, my sister, my mom, grandma, tons of other cousins, aunts uncles etc.. Pre vax he did last spring semester remote. Thanks to vax and good masks he's fine there. He even got to go the OU Texas game.

It's only the anti mask anti vax idiots that are at risk... and anyone who needs the hospitals for anything else right now. OU has it's own medical center, most kids are fully vaxxed too. The trailer trash goes elsewhere.

Prevailing thought is that omicron gives you immunity perhaps for a few months. Does this mean that in highly infected locations, masks are no longer necessary?

I don’t understand how that question follows the premise

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Originally Posted by jono

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKuch...43229934661633

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Interesting thread. I like this part too:

"Reduction in global travel may also have influenced variant dynamics globally so far – and subsequent reopening may change this, as there is less potential for 'evolutionary villages' that are relatively cut off from global dynamics."

In other words, maybe the WHO was right when they denounced travel bans and closed borders and all these world leaders who think they need to lock the gates on their respective countries are full of shit.

Some good stuff in the NYTimes this morning:

"Since early last week, new cases in Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey and New York have fallen by more than 30 percent. They’re down by more than 10 percent in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. In California, cases may have peaked."

"If anything, the official Covid numbers probably understate the actual declines, because test results are often a few days behind reality."

They discuss Oxford's COVID risk culator: https://qcovid.org/Home/

"A typical 65-year-old American woman — to take one example — is five foot three inches tall and weighs 166 pounds. If she had been vaccinated and did not have a major Covid risk factor, like an organ transplant, her chance of dying after contracting Covid would be 1 in 872, according to the calculator. For a typical 65-year-old man, the risk would be 1 in 434.

Among 75-year-olds, the risk would be 1 in 264 for a typical woman and 1 in 133 for a typical man.

Those are meaningful risks. But they are not larger than many other risks older people face. In the 2019-20 flu season, about 1 out of every 138 Americans 65 and older who had flu symptoms died from them, according to the C.D.C.

And Omicron probably presents less risk than the British calculator suggests, because it uses data through the first half of 2021, when the dominant version of Covid was more severe than Omicron appears to be."

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Originally Posted by Summit

If you change a few "letters" in the mRNA to match to the Omicron spike protein instead of the Wuhan-1 spike protein, is that a "new" vaccine?

Flu vaccines, where we use a whole dead virus, use different viruses every season (and multiple strains). Some don't grow well in the common growth medium (eggs). It takes a while to go from selection to deployment, 6 months! Sometimes manufacturers have to guess and start producing a couple of strains before CDC picks what strains will go in the vaccine. And sometimes they guess wrong!

mRNA is faster to design and produce. So we can do 3 months instead of 6 months. That's a good thing for flu and would have been so for COVID up until the insane speed of spread of Omicron.

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This is fascinating to me. I haven't read anyone suggesting this, other than Summit. To play devils advocate, sounds like you are proposing we identify emerging COVID variants, or maybe even guess what variants will emerge, and then rapidly deploy a mRNA booster shot to the masses tailored to the novel variant. As if we can eliminate all disease from Earth, no matter how mild that disease. But it begs the question, what if disease serves an important purpose?

The average American woman is 5'3 165? Not to contribute to anyone's body dysmorphia but maybe Biden should send every American some running shoes. WTF.

These nurses say it's not COVID or lack of nurses that is causing a crisis in the medical field. It is greedy, profit driven hospitals:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/o...rstaffing.html

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Originally Posted by altasnob

In other words,

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Tell me you don't speak science without saying you're a lawyer.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

This is fascinating to me. I haven't read anyone suggesting this, other than Summit. To play devils advocate, sounds like you are proposing we identify emerging COVID variants, or maybe even guess what variants will emerge, and then rapidly deploy a mRNA booster shot to the masses tailored to the novel variant. As if we can eliminate all disease from Earth, no matter how mild that disease. But it begs the question, what if disease serves an important purpose?

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I'm not going to put so many words in Summit's mouth, but I see him suggesting the and kind of thing that had been suggested numerous times before: that 3 phases of trials for a minor adjustment is overkill. Particularly when the risk of delay is greater than the risk of moving forward. Do a phase I, establish safety, and get the adjusted version out.

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Originally Posted by ml242

The average American woman is 5'3 165? Not to contribute to anyone's body dysmorphia but maybe Biden should send every American some running shoes. WTF.

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And a German shepherd to chase them and make em run?

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Originally Posted by altasnob

This is fascinating to me. I haven't read anyone suggesting this, other than Summit. To play devils advocate, sounds like you are proposing we identify emerging COVID variants, or maybe even guess what variants will emerge, and then rapidly deploy a mRNA booster shot to the masses tailored to the novel variant. As if we can eliminate all disease from Earth, no matter how mild that disease. But it begs the question, what if disease serves an important purpose?

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You clearly don't follow actual science.

Universal coronavirus vaccines have always been part of that discussion. Influenza even more so.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

As if we can eliminate all disease from Earth, no matter how mild that disease.

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I've heard no one suggests this, except Altasnab

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Originally Posted by Mofro261

You clearly don't follow actual science.

Universal coronavirus vaccines have always been part of that discussion. Influenza even more so.

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I don't. I read NYTimes and Atlantic religiously. Oh, and I suck Trevor Bedford's dick because unlike most scientist who are pompous with sticks up their ass, he actually shares his thoughts with the masses via his twitter feed.

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Originally Posted by jono

that 3 phases of trials for a minor adjustment is overkill. Particularly when the risk of delay is greater than the risk of moving forward. Do a phase I, establish safety, and get the adjusted version out.

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It's not the universal vaccine that appears novel to me. It's proposing they waive (or shorten) clinical trials to get variant tailored booster shots to the masses quickly. Is this being discussed? If so, please provide cite.

From my reading, it still appears the majority of scientist and policy makers in the world believe sticking with the OG vaccine going forward is the best course of action. This is not because a variant tailored vaccine isn't effective. It is because today, it is not realistic to be able to vaccinate the world with a new vaccine every six months.

As a lawyer, I try to learn the medical science from the medical and scientific professionals, because duh, I'm a lawyer.

As a lawyer, altasnob tries to critique them. FFS.

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Originally Posted by ml242

The average 65yo American woman is 5'3 165? Not to contribute to anyone's body dysmorphia but maybe Biden should send every American some running shoes. WTF.

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Fixed.

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Originally Posted by Danno

As a lawyer, I try to learn the medical science from the medical and scientific professionals, because duh, I'm a lawyer.

As a lawyer, altasnob tries to critique them. FFS.

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To be fair, it seems like the lawyerly part that he screwed up the best. Scientist says that travel bans may have influenced spread and evolutionary conditions and changes may change that. Altasnob says that means they don't work. If this bassackwardness works on juries we've got bigger problems than a disease.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

They discuss Oxford's COVID risk culator: https://qcovid.org/Home/

"A typical 65-year-old American woman — to take one example — is five foot three inches tall and weighs 166 pounds. If she had been vaccinated and did not have a major Covid risk factor, like an organ transplant, her chance of dying after contracting Covid would be 1 in 872, according to the calculator. For a typical 65-year-old man, the risk would be 1 in 434.

Among 75-year-olds, the risk would be 1 in 264 for a typical woman and 1 in 133 for a typical man.

Those are meaningful risks. But they are not larger than many other risks older people face. In the 2019-20 flu season, about 1 out of every 138 Americans 65 and older who had flu symptoms died from them, according to the C.D.C.

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No brainer that old people are more likely to die but those numbers feel a bit high. Might be true of folks hospitalized for flu but there must be more old folks who get flu and ride it out at home just fine unreported. Also, is there a breakdown of flu vax vs no flu vax? I mean after all if we're comparing COVID vax surviving COVID to flu shouldn't we be using flu vax surviving flu?

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Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Fixed.

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Ha, thanks for that!