Attachment 401783
Printable View
Guys, this is not Rocket Science, just apply a little common sense for fucks sake :rolleyes2
Attachment 401784
Could be #fakenews
Could also be Simpson's paradox, a type of faulty analysis. Aggregate your data by age, then then vax status. Also compare ventilator rates instead of counts. You'll find the unvaxxed are 10x more likely to be ventilated.
Thought exercise: Consider a 100% vaxxed population, where the vax provides less than full protection against ventilation. This population will have ventilator patients, and they will ALL be vaxxed. Add in some unvaxxed, and they will be mostly vaxxed.
Is the CDC in charge of sequencing? Large difference in sequencing rates between states. And states that you wouldn't think would be leaders in sequencing (like Wyoming) are:
https://media.nature.com/lw800/magaz...7_19963906.jpg
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03698-7
When I play around with nextstrain it sure doesn't look like there is still 10 to 20% Delta anywhere. Omicron dominates everywhere. And as far as I can tell, this is based on the latest sequencing data. I see 3% of Delta (includes both Delta variants) as of 1/8/22 in the US.
https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/21K.Omicron
2000 vaccinated people and 20 go into hospital
100 unvaccinated people and 10 go into hospital
NakedSharts screams "There are twice as many vaccinated people in the hospital as there are unvaccinated!"
Attachment 401791
Er hem... your link specifically says between 1.5-7% at those locations for Delta during the last 2 weeks, none of them increasing. https://soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.c...ncompare-delta
Note S gene and del143-5 are the same gene marker but 2 different regions. To get the Delta data, look at the del156-7 marker (also in the S gene). These deletions are found in ~90%, but not all, of the respective Omicron and Delta strains.
I agree the data sources disagree. What data is entered in nextstrain? Is there any effort to get a representative sample? Perhaps it's biased toward researchers choosing to sequence the hot new thing?
The sewer data I linked is only representative of the local area. I looked for the Boston data to compare, but they don't discriminate variants.
It's unclear to me why delta would go away, unless NPIs increased, or until omicron infects enough of us to raise resistance.
part of my concern is looking at this as a small percentage of a Very large number is not insignificant -
700,000 new cases Daily ;
Pick your percentage -
.5% is still 3500 cases weekly ;
7% would be almost 50,000 cases of delta - and
please remember variants develop in those infected, when there is also a susceptible population.
from my perspective given our omicron - and delta - experience, everyone could be at risk for a new variant, And there are certainly sufficient covid cases for variants to develop.
Summit's letter of Resignation is amusingly sobering.
Please ,,, try to find your long view --
tj
This^^. All the "whole population" data that's not stratified by age has been suspect (or demonstrably misleading) for a year now. You can't ignore the fact that vax rates in the general population are pulled up by the old while bad outcomes among the unvaccinated are pulled down by the young. Because the old are far more vaccinated.
Maybe Liv2ski can show that better with a Venn diagram.
Thanks, that;s interesting. I was making a similar comparison, but using omicron's Del 143-145 vs S (or N). In the link I posted, S and N were already high when omicron appeared, and the gap between S/N and Del 143-145 remained and grew. I assume this gap is non-omicron variants, but you say some omicron variants do not have Del 143-145, so the omicron fraction would be greater than I claimed.
It also doesn't state they are all on the ventilators for COVID. I mean weren't a bunch of people already on ventilators before COVID was a thing? People are intubated for all kinds of things every day. I don't see them saying they're only counting COVID patients on ventilators there..
Thanks!! And thanks, jono for the journal article link.
Topol is SO prolific on Twitter, it’s very comprehensive but hard to keep up. There’s a good interview and conversation between Bob Wachter and Topol last week. https://youtu.be/lCAvFHd3B38
Delta went away because it does not have a fitness advantage over Omicron. It simply cannot compete with Omicron as well for hosts due to it's increased transmissibility, despite not being quite as replication competent( average CT's 1 log higher for Omicron, 23 vs 20 for Delta). Just like Wu-1 was obliterated by Alpha, and then Alpha completely was wiped off the map by Delta, now Delta bows out to Omicron.
Good thing too as much of the data suggests infection with Omicron will not cross protect against any other strains in unvaccinated people, but breakthrough in vaxxed individuals do look to have cross-protection against all strains but Beta (also a goner).
Limited cross-variant immunity after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant without vaccination. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.22269243v1
(UCSF, Jen Doudna)
Quote:
Collectively, our study shows that while the Omicron virus is immunogenic, infection with this variant in unvaccinated individuals may not elicit effective cross-neutralizing antibodies against other variants. In vaccinated individuals, however, Omicron infection effectively induces immunity against itself and enhances protection against other variants.
Also- Nextstrain is a compiler of covid data from the network of worldwide GISAID affiliates. https://www.gisaid.org/
That MedRxiv link is missing a character, here's one that works:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.22269243v1
I'm not an expert of sewage surveillance, but my understanding is it is more a "detected" vs "not detected" and people may shed detectable virus long after they don't have it, so seeing delta detected in 10-20% of stool does not at all call into question the sequencing conclusion that 99.5% of active cases are Omicron.
I was asking a question. Is it even possible to rush approve an Omicron specific vaccine?
Is this what people want? Is this what medical experts are advocating? The government to approve new mRNA vaccines specifically tailored for each new variant without any clinical studies?
If you change a few "letters" in the mRNA to match to the Omicron spike protein instead of the Wuhan-1 spike protein, is that a "new" vaccine?
Flu vaccines, where we use a whole dead virus, use different viruses every season (and multiple strains). Some don't grow well in the common growth medium (eggs). It takes a while to go from selection to deployment, 6 months! Sometimes manufacturers have to guess and start producing a couple of strains before CDC picks what strains will go in the vaccine. And sometimes they guess wrong!
mRNA is faster to design and produce. So we can do 3 months instead of 6 months. That's a good thing for flu and would have been so for COVID up until the insane speed of spread of Omicron.
As far as what Gov Murphy says--that's no surprise. It has been widely reported that many of the hospital cases of covid were asymptomatic patients admitted for something else. These go into covid case counts. Covid will not be listed as cause of death or cause of hospitalization unless the patients later become sick with it. As I posted before 12 or 16 trauma patients my son admitted tested positive for covid.
As far as the hospital reporting 75% of its ventilator covid patients being vaccinated the report is not from the hospital itself but from the city interpreting what is happening in the hospital. It is impossible to tell from this third hand report whether the covid ventilator patients are on the vent because of covid or if they are among the people with incidental covid. If in fact they are on vents from covid it is not surprising that there would be a small minority of hospitals where this is the case, but it is certainly not what most hospitals are reporting. In any case, more direct information is needed. I can find no other news source for this information.
There does seem to be a lack of detailed information in the mainstream press about the demographics and characteristics of omicron cases--vaxed vs unvaxed, asymptomatic, symptomatic, hospitalized, ICU, death, age and preexisting conditions. Also, while we know that there are a lot of breakthrough cases but how do the chances of unvaccinated and vaccinated getting covid compare and if infected how do their chances of transmitting compare?
Don’t wreck your car in Oklahoma:
Attachment 401817
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
My kid's at school in Norman there. He said he's about the only student wearing a mask (KN95) in most of his classes. He said most of the professors do. Same thing at his part time job. MURIKA!
Oklahoma's probably the reddest state in the nation.. even literally. They have red dirt there..
Now THAT'S hilarious you sent your kid to freaking OU of all places. And then act surprised with the lack of masks. That'd be like me sending my kids off to UC Berkeley (lol NOPE) then acting surprised about how librul the place is.
And screw OU football, btw. ;)
Sent from my Pixel 3 using TGR Forums mobile app